VectorNQT: I'd actually like to ask you to detail your single-target analysis a little more. I love reading your stuff! The high point of every game.
That's kind of you to say. It's the same kind of analysis I have done in previous games. I see who tries to get who lynched, discounting certain votes. I will give the full method on D3, like I said, to stop it being gamed, but these were the results from D1:
Vector 7
webadict 5
BluarianKnight 5
TricMagic 4
4maskwolf 4
notquitethere 4
IcyTea31 3
ToonyMan 2
Luckyowl 2
Persus13/Secretdorf 2
Toaster 2
juicebox 2
Jim Groovester 2
This is a method for finding town (or not-scum) more than it is a method for finding scum. The rationale here is that town players genuinely suspect a lot of other players.
There's discussion on it in the theory thread here. On D1, Vector, Web and Blu were town. Tric, NQT, and 4mask were are all probably not scum (I'm certain about me of course!).
With a due warning that this work is manual so I might have missed something (but I don't think I have), here's how D2 currently stands:
notquitethere 5*
webadict 3
Vector 3
TricMagic 3
4maskwolf 3
ToonyMan 2
Persus13/Secretdorf 2
Toaster 2
IcyTea31 2
BluarianKnight 1
Luckyowl 1
caz 1
Jim Groovester 1
*includes this very post
So despite Web's lower post frequency today, he's still up there with most paranoid players- along with the
exact same group as D1. Everything else is too low to say anything definite, but it doesn't look good for Jim that he's in the same category as confirmed non-town Blu, shifty priest Lucky, and actually absent most of the day Juice->Caz.
Caznotquitethere - needs more graphs. a town nqt would have flowcharts. a town nqt would care. probably Devil.
Buddy, I have done four different numerical analyses (sentiment analysis, aggregate suspicion, unique post count, thread engagement count) and I've analysed possible scum team compositions based on prior games. I don't see how this read makes any sense whatsoever.
WebadictI believe my biases are showing in that I will always think their elimination is helpful.
Tricking you so completely in two previous games is really coming back to bite me now.
If their goal is to find the Cult Leader, they've suddenly changed their tune. It feels absolutely like their mechanically nailing down the Town PRs and threat assessing. They've even shifted away from their juicebox FoS.
I became convinced that we're not facing a vampire cult so hunting the converter doesn't have the same priority. And I shifted off focusing on Juice because Juice wasn't playing! Now I'm back.
I can't think of Town!NQT acting like how they're acting Today.
I honestly don't think I've ever been as town!NQT as I have in this game, but I understand that your track record for telling the difference hasn't been great.
SYNTHESISThus far on D2 I've just been poking at players and tinkering with different ways of looking at things. But it's time to try to bring these different insights to bear in a reads list!
TOWN4maskwolf - In this game I half-suspect 4mask to be deepclaiming wererat when he's actually a seer or something. He's been playing consistently pro-town; highest engagement, good range of suspicions, mechanical puzzle solving, he's trying to figure the game out.
Vector - Vector is town. Nice paranoid spread of votes on D1. Lot's of good push on D2.
ToonyMan - Toony is town. A bit tunnelly to fully put me at ease, but highly engaged in the thread.
TricMagic - Tric is town. Being touchy and fancy playing are all highly consistent with being town.
Persus13/Secretdorf - Persus is town. I'd be lying if I said I was fully happy with Persus/SD's play (especially their wasted voted end of day 1). But the push on them on D1, and their D2 play makes me more confident.
webadict - I think definitely town on D1; slight drop off in post frequency on D2 could mean converted; thread engagement pretty solid; high suspicions count, townish paranoia. Very likely town.
IcyTea31 - Perfectly average play, no great waves. One to keep an eye on. Could go either way. I like their most recent posts more than I like their posts on D1. On balance probably town.
Toaster - Toaster, along with ICT, is just good enough not to be in the lynch pool but not good enough for me to actually know by their actions that they're on my side. These would be prime slots for investigation. On balance, maybe scum but not the priority lynch.
Jim Groovester - Low number of suspects and low post count; curiously the least suspected player on D1, which might actually indicate having scum partners; defended Juice x3 times on D1 which might mean something if Juice flips scum. Basically, on very thin ice and pending informative flips to give more context.
BluarianKnight - Either a third party who could block and kill town players, or scum. A shame because they were a good player on D1 prior to conversion.
Luckyowl - The most suspected player in the game, we will never rest easily until this slot is cleared. Appears to be coached. The best that can be said for Lucky is that they're probably not a converter, but given the converter is one-shot that doesn't matter. Incidentally, a scum!Lucky would rule out Dark Magus.
caz - Juice was highly scummy on D1, with no cases. Their D2 reads are mostly backwards (Vector at the bottom? Jim at the top!). I still want to eliminate this slot.
SCUMI almost got a Juice lynch on D1. On reflection, I still want one today. Yes, this looks much the same as D1 at the bottom here: Lucky and Juice accumulated so much suspicion that we really can't go into LYLO with either of them. Caz's lack of a dream is not helping them here. Today I would support a Caz, Lucky, or Jim lynch. Blu would be OK to lynch as they're definitely not town, but they're definitely not the OG scumteam and it's possible their block could do some good in the night, assuming we have a kill team, they could block the killer.