I ended up missing that post. Why wouldn't I make a theory? And is there really a difference between mafia and wolves other than flavoring and role abilities?
So, "because you don't know" is the answer.
While there's basically no difference outside of unique roles between a killing cult and werewolves, and the charismatic cult has a one-shot kill and a unique role but otherwise is similar to a killing cult, Supernatural also contains one extra scumteam type that doesn't fit those molds. The Dark Magus, a single player scumteam with a large number of powerful abilities at their disposal, including a one-shot convert. So if we're assuming conversion, it's possible we're looking at a one player scumteam to increased to two overnight, which your setup math didn't take into account.
UnvoteActually, why would this question even matter but for trying to lynch me 4maskwolf. I really am an easy target, a knight who can't be nightkilled and is likely to extend the game if lynched. Very Survivor. (Even if you do win by surviving, if you never aim at scum you won't die.)
This is intensely stupid considering it's not even my question, I'm just repeating Vector's (though admittedly I had the same question as well). The answer to "why does it matter" is that you might have TMId knowing the nature of the scumteam by your comment, since you seemed very sure we were
not looking at a Dark Magus.
The vote was to get your attention since that seems to be the only thing you pay attention to.