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Author Topic: Supernatural 10 - Game Over!  (Read 86800 times)

Vector

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Re: Supernatural 10 - Day 2 has a full house
« Reply #735 on: March 02, 2021, 11:54:08 am »

So, the setup is one Converter, two Mafia, 1 Devil, 1 Survivor, 9 Town. Would that be a potential setup for this game? Or rather.. Wouldn't 4mask end up being the devil? That brings it to 10 town, 1 cult leader, a Devil, and 2 mafia. The kill failing could be them getting redirected. Granted, if Luckyowl is town that could mean the devil targeted me while Mafia targeted Lucky, so the two targets got reversed. Which is why there would be no kill last night.

Of course, we could also have 2 Mafia with one of them having a Convert, so we have a 3 person team now Either way it's a theory that I think holds some merit.

Why are you sure that we have a conventional scumteam?
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notquitethere

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Re: Supernatural 10 - Day 2 has a full house
« Reply #736 on: March 02, 2021, 11:56:44 am »

I was curious about today's activity levels, given it feels like a difficult second D1. So I counted the number of posts players had made*, to get a quick sense of thread engagement. As 4mask has pointed out, we don't win today with our current vote spread, so scum can afford to sleep.

D2 Posts
Most investested
4maskwolf   24
ToonyMan   23
notquitethere   19

Keen
TricMagic   11
Vector   10

Modal
webadict   7
Persus13   7
Toaster   7
IcyTea31   7

Sluggish
Luckyowl   6
Jim Groovester   5

Literally not pretending to be town
BluarianKnight   2

Quit
juicebox   0


Toony wasn't converted. Bluarian has given up any attempt to scum hunt and has basically checked out. We will probably have to lynch Blu at some point, especially if the game doesn't end after 2 or 3 scum deaths. For those not paying attention, the mod has confirmed that even if Lucky is town, he could have revived Blu as mafia.

Bluarian who should town lynch today?

*(I had to amend the numbers a few times as people posted before I could post, but this should be accurate at the time of posting. I miss ZU's lurkertracker!)



Tric
See my previous posts on team composition. We could have a dark magus.
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
I don't think we need to start positing redirections to make sense of things just yet!
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4maskwolf

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Re: Supernatural 10 - Day 2 has a full house
« Reply #737 on: March 02, 2021, 11:57:27 am »

So, the setup is one Converter, two Mafia, 1 Devil, 1 Survivor, 9 Town. Would that be a potential setup for this game? Or rather.. Wouldn't 4mask end up being the devil? That brings it to 10 town, 1 cult leader, a Devil, and 2 mafia. The kill failing could be them getting redirected. Granted, if Luckyowl is town that could mean the devil targeted me while Mafia targeted Lucky, so the two targets got reversed. Which is why there would be no kill last night.

Of course, we could also have 2 Mafia with one of them having a Convert, so we have a 3 person team now Either way it's a theory that I think holds some merit.

Why are you sure that we have a conventional scumteam?
This.



I’d like to reiterate that I am not the devil and would absolutely claim if I was. There’s another third party out there that isn’t me and hasn’t claimed.

IcyTea31

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Re: Supernatural 10 - Day 2 has a full house
« Reply #738 on: March 02, 2021, 12:07:11 pm »

Fort the sake of having my vote do something: Luckyowl

I would like an explanation for this as well:
Lucky is a confirmed liar.

I ask Meph if my ability will trigger if I'm night killed and he gave more than what I asked and said that my night action is low on the pirority list so If I'm interuppted my night action won't go through. So if I were converted then Blu wouldn't be here.
Did you really ask this Lucky? Why isn't it actually true?
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TricMagic

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Re: Supernatural 10 - Day 2 has a full house
« Reply #739 on: March 02, 2021, 12:08:05 pm »

People have lives outside of mafia. You yourself are using that to explain why you've barely posted, same as Jim, but you're attacking someone else for doing the same.
I wouldn't have blinked if juicebox provided no response to the CFD, but they were present enough to jump and draft a claim minutes after its start.
Yes. Juice is my second pick because of this.

Also you know...quietly replacing out without telling town his results.

Right, trying harder. I did bring a read list for day 1.
shakes head

Right now I have a few theories. ToonyMan hasn't really been giving townenergy today, so them being converted makes sense. On the other side is LO not actually reading as town to me now, particularly that one post I quoted. And being caught in a lie is kinda bad. NQT still reads negatively to me. So that really leaves Juicebox and Persus as the other two suspects.

So, the setup is one Converter, two Mafia, 1 Devil, 1 Survivor, 9 Town. Would that be a potential setup for this game? Or rather.. Wouldn't 4mask end up being the devil? That brings it to 10 town, 1 cult leader, a Devil, and 2 mafia. The kill failing could be them getting redirected. Granted, if Luckyowl is town that could mean the devil targeted me while Mafia targeted Lucky, so the two targets got reversed. Which is why there would be no kill last night.

Of course, we could also have 2 Mafia with one of them having a Convert, so we have a 3 person team now Either way it's a theory that I think holds some merit.
You would know if somebody tried to kill you, Tric.

Ah, right..
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Vector

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Re: Supernatural 10 - Day 2 has a full house
« Reply #740 on: March 02, 2021, 01:16:19 pm »

So, the setup is one Converter, two Mafia, 1 Devil, 1 Survivor, 9 Town. Would that be a potential setup for this game? Or rather.. Wouldn't 4mask end up being the devil? That brings it to 10 town, 1 cult leader, a Devil, and 2 mafia. The kill failing could be them getting redirected. Granted, if Luckyowl is town that could mean the devil targeted me while Mafia targeted Lucky, so the two targets got reversed. Which is why there would be no kill last night.

Of course, we could also have 2 Mafia with one of them having a Convert, so we have a 3 person team now Either way it's a theory that I think holds some merit.

Why are you sure that we have a conventional scumteam?

One more time, Tric.
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pronouns: prefer neutral ones, others are fine. height: 5'3".

4maskwolf

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Re: Supernatural 10 - Day 2 has a full house
« Reply #741 on: March 02, 2021, 01:25:26 pm »

NQT and 4mask, I'm a bit worried you all are trying too much to outguess Meph here. I do agree that there are possibilities outside of full-blown Vampire Cult.
You're talking to two of the most mechanically and pattern-oriented mafia players on Bay12. Of course we're going to read through previous games and try and read into them. And honestly... we're probably right, all things considered. I'll eat my hat if there's a vampire cult or more than two starting third parties in this game.

Of course now that we've brought up these things Meph might screw with them in the future just to mess with us, but still.
I've eaten my hat because web put 5 SKs and no scumteam in a game before. After that, I've been pretty cautious.

Did I say don't read into previous games? No, I said don't try and outguess Meph. Meph's told us that there aren't any new roles, so looking at old games is fine, I've been doing plenty of that too, but going "Meph wouldn't do this" is a good way of shooting yourself in the foot.
That's a very different circumstance. There's no expectations going into a Wuba BYOR except "Web will try and balance it as best he can". No roles are known in advance, no scumteam composition, no nothing. There's not much point thinking too deeply about the mechanics because nothing can be said for certain.

Meph games are different. Meph games follow a pattern, they have certain similarities, and Meph often explains his thought process after trying something new. It's really not that hard to see Meph's previous games and see that he made three different attempts at a conversion mechanic in a row after the last vampire game, which ran before I even joined Bay12 mafia. And given the outcome of those vampire games, it's really not that hard to come to the conclusion that Meph realized a full cult was problematic and scrapped the idea as a wolf team for Supernatural.


Persus13

Lucky has apparently decided that silence is the best option so I'll talk to you instead. I have been... less than impressed with your play thus far this game, and more specifically today. Mind giving me three people you're suspicious of, three people you think are town, and why?
Well
There's a big list of half the town who could be the converter and I'm trying to narrow it down. I'm suspicious of IcyTea and Toaster for passive play and being reactionary. Webadict made a comment D1 about Toaster throwing out questions to look active but without much follow up and that captured really well why I'm suspicious of both of them. I'm having trouble getting a good read on Vector, so I'll say they're my third, but Jim and Lucky/Blu could easily be here too.

NQT and webadict feel pretty solidly town, mainly based on my gut and their solid play. I don't really buy Toony's case on NQT, and think its largely based on null tells. I'm finding Tric super disruptive, and am not a big fan of his play, but I don't think he'd make three different claims as scum, so he'd be my third town pick. Otherwise, I'm not really getting the suspicions everyone's throwing at Juice, but he (or his replacement) needs to claim something tangible for me to solidly pick him as town.
I'd like to hear some more thoughts about Jim Groovester, if you wouldn't mind. What's got him in your "could be wolf" pile this game?

I'd expect the newer people to go for someone who "looks strong" or their buddies (i.e. I think Tric might have converted LuckyOwl and that 4mask might have converted ICT or NQT).
-angry dog noises-

Vector

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Re: Supernatural 10 - Day 2 has a full house
« Reply #742 on: March 02, 2021, 01:29:04 pm »

Use your words, 4mask.
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"The question of the usefulness of poetry arises only in periods of its decline, while in periods of its flowering, no one doubts its total uselessness." - Boris Pasternak

nonbinary/genderfluid/genderqueer renegade mathematician and mafia subforum limpet. please avoid quoting me.

pronouns: prefer neutral ones, others are fine. height: 5'3".

4maskwolf

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Re: Supernatural 10 - Day 2 has a full house
« Reply #743 on: March 02, 2021, 01:36:14 pm »

I'd like to think my mafia reputation is marginally better than "idiot newbie who'd just convert his friends regardless of gamestate".

Vector

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Re: Supernatural 10 - Day 2 has a full house
« Reply #744 on: March 02, 2021, 01:38:23 pm »

I mean, I woulda prolly just converted Webadict?
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"The question of the usefulness of poetry arises only in periods of its decline, while in periods of its flowering, no one doubts its total uselessness." - Boris Pasternak

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4maskwolf

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Re: Supernatural 10 - Day 2 has a full house
« Reply #745 on: March 02, 2021, 01:48:47 pm »

Personally I would have converted Toony. While, yes, "convert the consensus townread" isn't exactly a novel strategy, between the two of us we'd have a large amount of thread control and a good third of the thread presence, not even including other potential members of our team, which is a pretty big perk imo. Plus, y'know, convert the consensus townread.

Which is actually why I'm paying close attention to him and the fact that I'm not vibing with his posts today nearly as much as I was yesterday, because from my perspective he's a top-tier conversion option for most wolves.

ToonyMan

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Re: Supernatural 10 - Day 2 has a full house
« Reply #746 on: March 02, 2021, 02:12:11 pm »

@NQT:
How does activity for players compare to this time on Day 1?

@Conversions:
I probably would have converted me to. :(

I guess it's worth humoring, if I was a converter I would have hit Toaster > Jim > Web I think. It might be worth asking everybody to say their top conversion pick if they were a converter.

@4mask:
I still trust your survivor claim. While it's possible for third-party to be converted I see someone who is actively searching for scum in a day where most players aren't.
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Vector

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Re: Supernatural 10 - Day 2 has a full house
« Reply #747 on: March 02, 2021, 02:25:13 pm »

Whoops, missed this.

Vector
The ideal convertee would be someone who is a little bit unpredictable (but not too unpredictable), has a similar town and scum game, and is/was universally considered locktown. Someone with a lot of cred.

And if it was me, I'd be playing D1 with two people in mind [webadict, Jim Groovester].
I'm guessing the converter is one of ICT, [Toaster], and NQT. My guess for converted would be ... hm.

I don't think it's Web, Persus, or juicebox. I'm still leaning one of [Toaster], ICT, Jim, Toony. 4mask would also be a good choice.
Why would you not convert Toony yourself?
Why don't you think web is converted?
Why are you going for convertee before converter?

I mostly agree with who you expressly rule out of converter and convertee.



General thoughts

I don't entirely understand the cases on Toaster right now. It looks to be a process-of-elimination type case from most people on it, but that doesn't make sense, when several veterans had put each other in the "read later" pile. I think it's too early for a PoE. If I had to build a case on Toaster, I'd start with the aloof attitude rather than maths, and even that's something Toaster has had in past games as town, or perhaps assuming that a veteran would convert Toaster as a joke. I don't really have any specific complaints about their play, myself.

Actually, there's a minor misinterpretation of what I meant. At the bolded, what I meant was "there's no way I would play D1 with only one possible conversion target in mind." There is a strong incentive for the converter to let a strong townread on two or three targets go so that they don't play themselves into a corner. So in other words: if someone would normally say "the vets all confirming each other looks bad," they have an incentive to keep quiet.

And, honestly, I had the obvious two in mind: Toony and Jim Groovester.

For me in particular, I think converting Webadict would've been a good choice. As he mentions, 3rd on the list, we get along well together, we already had a big fight on D1, we tend to try to read and chainsaw or tunnel each other so there's a good meta excuse for our interactions. And, I'm fairly confident that I would have been able to handle the D3 Webadict Curse.

For most other players, Webadict is a bad conversion choice because he draws so much attention to himself and is, as we know, "always dead by D3." Whoever converted him would have to have a plan to deal with that.

As for why I was attacking Jim instead of people on the "converter" pile, it was literally just because Jim hadn't posted yet and I wanted to make sure that he wouldn't have the option of evading attention. I agree with people (4mask) who say that paying attention to converter over convertee doesn't make mechanical sense, but a critical point here is: we aren't "back to D1." For the converter, it's D2 (they were presumably already dropping tells D1). For the convertee, it's also D2. We're looking for someone with certain characteristics, who will additionally be acting differently today.


NQT: I'd actually like to ask you to detail your single-target analysis a little more. I love reading your stuff! The high point of every game.
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"The question of the usefulness of poetry arises only in periods of its decline, while in periods of its flowering, no one doubts its total uselessness." - Boris Pasternak

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pronouns: prefer neutral ones, others are fine. height: 5'3".

Persus13

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Re: Supernatural 10 - Day 2 has a full house
« Reply #748 on: March 02, 2021, 02:40:48 pm »

Re: Conversion Picks: I mean, when I was the Dark Magus I converted Toaster. I might do that again, but I'd probably go after webadict after D1 personally. Also is there a point to this? Where I'm standing this feels pretty WIFOMy.



Persus13

Lucky has apparently decided that silence is the best option so I'll talk to you instead. I have been... less than impressed with your play thus far this game, and more specifically today. Mind giving me three people you're suspicious of, three people you think are town, and why?
Well
There's a big list of half the town who could be the converter and I'm trying to narrow it down. I'm suspicious of IcyTea and Toaster for passive play and being reactionary. Webadict made a comment D1 about Toaster throwing out questions to look active but without much follow up and that captured really well why I'm suspicious of both of them. I'm having trouble getting a good read on Vector, so I'll say they're my third, but Jim and Lucky/Blu could easily be here too.

NQT and webadict feel pretty solidly town, mainly based on my gut and their solid play. I don't really buy Toony's case on NQT, and think its largely based on null tells. I'm finding Tric super disruptive, and am not a big fan of his play, but I don't think he'd make three different claims as scum, so he'd be my third town pick. Otherwise, I'm not really getting the suspicions everyone's throwing at Juice, but he (or his replacement) needs to claim something tangible for me to solidly pick him as town.
I'd like to hear some more thoughts about Jim Groovester, if you wouldn't mind. What's got him in your "could be wolf" pile this game?
Jim's game so far has been to go after me since I joined the game over Secretdorf, which is annoying, but I'm used to Jim going after me. Eventually he switched to Blu, didn't get involved in the CFD at all (I think he was busy?) and rode it out to lynch Blu by day end. While he's been vocal about LuckyOwl being scummy, he's also never actually voted them over it, and he also contributed to saving them from being lynched by choosing Blu over Lucky. So his game so far has been to vote to lynch one player who flipped town, helping save another player who he thought seemed scummy from the lynch in the process, and go after me, while it doesn't feel like he's actually doing a lot to get me lynched. That has a bit of saving an ally and pushing a case to appear active energy to it.

Now, the main reason I'm not reading more into this yet is A. this requires Lucky to be his buddy. Toony's case on Lucky has some solid points that's making me consider it, but I'm not entirely convinced that his case of Lucky lying wasn't just a misunderstanding/miscommunication. B. Jim's not been super active, so that may explain why he's effectively had two votes this game. But still, its bothering me, especially now that Tea is showing up and playing D2 and gave some decent responses to my questions and stuck to their guns when I pressured them.

Actually, after rereading Jim Groovestar's posts this game, I'm going to vote him for now. Jim, what was your case on Blu again?


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TricMagic

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Re: Supernatural 10 - Day 2 has a full house
« Reply #749 on: March 02, 2021, 02:50:15 pm »

@NQT:
How does activity for players compare to this time on Day 1?

@Conversions:
I probably would have converted me to. :(

I guess it's worth humoring, if I was a converter I would have hit Toaster > Jim > Web I think. It might be worth asking everybody to say their top conversion pick if they were a converter.

@4mask:
I still trust your survivor claim. While it's possible for third-party to be converted I see someone who is actively searching for scum in a day where most players aren't.

Hmm. I would go for Toaster personally. At that gamestate anyway, and this game would be very different if I was the converter. My start of day statement wouldn't exist for one. But it would have been a decent shift.
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