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[Vector]

I'd like to see someone above the gap hang, and I'd start with Vector.  Vector, do you think there was a conversion last night?  If so, who did it?  Who'd they pick?

I'm not remotely operating on full cylinders right now, but:

See my last post for an analysis of how I'd expect a converter to play.

I agree that Tric, Blu, Lucky are not the converter. 4mask is not the converter. This points to some narrowing for who would be the converted party: I'd expect the newer people to go for someone who "looks strong" or their buddies (i.e. I think Tric might have converted LuckyOwl and that 4mask might have converted ICT or NQT).

I'm guessing the converter is one of ICT, you, and NQT. My guess for converted would be ... hm.

I don't think it's Web, Persus, or juicebox. I'm still leaning one of you, ICT, Jim, Toony. 4mask would also be a good choice.

I need to do a reread and take notes for interactions, but right now I need to sleep.

[Vector]

I'm not lurking!

ah know yer not! >:V

[Luckyowl]

@Luckyowl: Not only are you a pragmatic elimination target, but I think your play has been very anti-town. Now that you've done your sneaky Priest res what now? Why do you think scum would ignore a town priest if you're telling the truth? Who are you going to vote?

wow, if you're town you're really trying to throw off a town victory. Sorry for not being here when I had other things to do?

Why scum ignored me on night phase? probably to get me lynch on day 2 with bogus reasoning(seriously, we're all going to ignore that 4mask wanted me lynch because"if Lucky flip town, then blu is town..)...and I already voted 4mask, ToonyMan. but I'm might as well place my vote onto you..

[Luckyowl]

Hm, so we're dealing with a converter? Well, that pretty much cross me off as a possible suspect. Since I brought Blu back from the dead. Sadly, it seems not as townie. From my understanding from meph explanation on how my one shot ability works. Is that I don't know if I'm pure or not. Which has nothing to do with my alignment. Also another tidbit. I ask Meph if my ability will trigger if I'm night killed and he gave more than what I asked and said that my night action is low on the pirority list so If I'm interuppted my night action won't go through. So if I were converted then Blu wouldn't be here.

[notquitethere]

Well, that pretty much cross me off as a possible suspect. Since I brought Blu back from the dead. Sadly, it seems not as townie. From my understanding from meph explanation on how my one shot ability works. Is that I don't know if I'm pure or not. Which has nothing to do with my alignment. Also another tidbit. I ask Meph if my ability will trigger if I'm night killed and he gave more than what I asked and said that my night action is low on the pirority list so If I'm interuppted my night action won't go through. So if I were converted then Blu wouldn't be here.

I think someone else said up-thread that conversion is even lower in priority and so happens after resurrection. You're quite right that no one thinks you're the converter. People are just wondering if:
1. You were a scum priest trying to raise a town player onto your team
2. You were converted

I doubt #2. #1 is possible.

"if Lucky flip town, then blu is town.."

If you flip town, then people thought we could believe Blu's claim of being resurrected as a vampire. Unfortunately, Blu could also have been raised onto the scum team whether you're town or not.

[IcyTea31]

ToonyMan

Juice said they would be away for work during the day end. Fair enough, Toaster had a similar excuse (after voting Blue).

The difference is that Toaster never posted the rest of Day 1.

As soon as a Juicebox bandwagon formed (started by NQT), Juicebox is suddenly here and claiming.

Now why is that? My guess is that Juice has actually been following the thread the entire end of Day 1, but chose to lurk in the shadows while waiting for day end. That is extremely anti-town.

Good catch, did make a note of that myself.

So we have a Devil who thought Lucky would be foolish enough to accept a soul deal...

That would put the devil as someone who's played with Lucky before, because I can definitely see that logic. Scum!Lucky would probably accept, but also would lie about refusing, so it's not massively useful.


notquitethere

Overall, the least suspected players yesterday, in order, were:

Very not lynchable
1. Jim
2. Toony
Not Lynchable
3. Web
4. Vector
Everyone else...


If there was a conversion, the conversion probably happened in this pool. Everyone else is much more lynchable. That all said, we actually want to lynch the converter as a priority. Let's assume the converter is someone moderately suspected from outside this pool:

Why can't the converter be in that pool as well as the convertee?
Why the passive voice: "least suspected players" and not "players I least suspect"?

ICT, you jumped off the juicewagon on D1 which indirectly led to Blu's death. Was "pushback from Vector and Toony" all the info you wanted to collect? Why not follow through on Juice?

My vote on juice's primary purpose was to collect data on reactions to the CFD, yes. I was fine with any of BK, juice or Lucky being lynched, Lucky was simply my preference. That has changed, though.


Persus13, Toaster, general thoughts

I'd love to hear what IcyTea's thoughts on the end of D1 and D2 so far because you seemed to be pretty out of it after parking your vote on LuckyOwl. I'm used to you having more/longer posts and being more of a day game leader, but a lot of your posts are reactionary or don't have followup and are pretty short.

IcyTea was all for lynching either Luckyowl or BluarianKnight, but then voted juicebox.  He backs into Luckyowl again, noting "pushback from Vector and and Toony."  He doesn't take this analysis anywhere.  Why, IcyTea?  What do you make of this now?

I was multitasking, and was frustrated with how I'd get ninja'd ten times before I could get a longer post out, so I switched out my style for more agility, counting on the posts being analyzed during the night so I'd need to be less explicit. But since you asked:

-Notquitethere led the EoD actively and competently. Pretty much past my accusation of trying to distract with mechanics.
-webadict was pretty passive, but I'm the pot on that.
-juicebox materializing from the aether to post after being CFD'd looks a lot like being spooked while intentionally lurking.
-Toony and Vector didn't join the CFD, which weakly links them with juicebox. Vector was pretty happy to relax as well.
-CFD didn't spook anyone into changing their vote to protect juicebox, which would have been telling.
-From what I can figure of the night so far, a Luckyowl lynch is no longer as informative as it would have been D1.


Vector

The ideal convertee would be someone who is a little bit unpredictable (but not too unpredictable), has a similar town and scum game, and is/was universally considered locktown. Someone with a lot of cred.

And if it was me, I'd be playing D1 with two people in mind [webadict, Jim Groovester].

I'm guessing the converter is one of ICT, [Toaster], and NQT. My guess for converted would be ... hm.

I don't think it's Web, Persus, or juicebox. I'm still leaning one of [Toaster], ICT, Jim, Toony. 4mask would also be a good choice.

Why would you not convert Toony yourself?
Why don't you think web is converted?
Why are you going for convertee before converter?

I mostly agree with who you expressly rule out of converter and convertee.


General thoughts

I don't entirely understand the cases on Toaster right now. It looks to be a process-of-elimination type case from most people on it, but that doesn't make sense, when several veterans had put each other in the "read later" pile. I think it's too early for a PoE. If I had to build a case on Toaster, I'd start with the aloof attitude rather than maths, and even that's something Toaster has had in past games as town, or perhaps assuming that a veteran would convert Toaster as a joke. I don't really have any specific complaints about their play, myself.

[webadict]

Honestly, Icy, you're pretty close to how I feel. PoE. Long Day 1. I actually really want to do a better reread, but was feeling dead tired yesterday, and here I am at 3 AM not sleeping...

Anyway, in a super meta read and me thinking about stuff,  I know Luckyowl is telling the truth about being visited by the Devil because the Night took two days, so Meph probably had to wait for a response. I don't know order of operations on convert and devil deal though. Find out later.

Saw questions,  but half asleep on phone. @Toaster: will post updated reads later. Would prefer not Vector. Would also prefer not Jim. Opposed to Lucky.  Okay with maybe Icy, but idk right away. drfo okay with nqt or Toaster. Would think ToonyMan is too soon. Okay with juicebox or Persus. Actually maybe save Persus, I remember reading something from them I liked. Not Blue. is that everyone?

[notquitethere]

1. Why can't the converter be in that pool as well as the convertee?
2. Why the passive voice: "least suspected players" and not "players I least suspect"?

1. They absolutely can be, I just think it more likely that scum would not be the least suspected players. You have to make assumptions and go with the best working theory in this game otherwise you'd never make any decisions.
2. Because it's not who I least suspected but who everyone least suspected (otherwise this would have been worthless for considering what the scum team might have picked). I aggregated all of the reads on D1 to make the list. Here's the full stats. Numbers range from 13 (everyone defends) to 91 (everyone is voting):

Aggregate Reads D1
ToonyMan   32
Jim Groovester   34
webadict   41
4maskwolf   41
Vector   44
IcyTea31   49
TricMagic   52
notquitethere   55
Toaster   56
Persus13/Secretdorf   57
Luckyowl   58
BluarianKnight   59
juicebox   61

As you can see by Blu, being highly "suspected" doesn't mean a player is definitely scum, it just means a lot of people want them out of the game.

My vote on juice's primary purpose was to collect data on reactions to the CFD, yes. I was fine with any of BK, juice or Lucky being lynched, Lucky was simply my preference. That has changed, though.

OK, so what conclusions can you draw from this "data"?

[notquitethere]

Just realised, not that it matters that much, but the range is actually 12-84 as I don't count player's reads on themselves.

[IcyTea31]

They absolutely can be, I just think it more likely that scum would not be the least suspected players.

The issue is, least suspected also means least pushed:

As you can see by Blu, being highly "suspected" doesn't mean a player is definitely scum, it just means a lot of people want them out of the game.

I'd argue this is true in the opposite sense as well, as several of the veterans barely pushed against each other in direct interaction, and only looked at them from the side: they're not least suspected because they've concluded they're town, but because pushing against a veteran takes a lot of effort and damages towncred on both sides, so they're being saved for later Days.

OK, so what conclusions can you draw from this "data"?

See the same post, under "Persus13, Toaster, general thoughts".

[IcyTea31]

drfo okay with nqt

This is strange to me. You pushed hard that Luckyowl flipping scum would confirm NQT as such as well, and in your posts on this day, you've shown trust in NQT's analyses. For someone you mention so often, I'd expect a stronger opinion than "okay to lynch", one way or the other.

[notquitethere]

I'd argue this is true in the opposite sense as well, as several of the veterans barely pushed against each other in direct interaction, and only looked at them from the side: they're not least suspected because they've concluded they're town, but because pushing against a veteran takes a lot of effort and damages towncred on both sides, so they're being saved for later Days.

I'm inclined to agree with all this.

See the same post, under "Persus13, Toaster, general thoughts".

Thanks, I must have skimmed over. I agree with your assessments overall, do you think Juice could be the devil?

[webadict]

drfo okay with nqt

This is strange to me. You pushed hard that Luckyowl flipping scum would confirm NQT as such as well, and in your posts on this day, you've shown trust in NQT's analyses. For someone you mention so often, I'd expect a stronger opinion than "okay to lynch", one way or the other.

Lucky not being scum doesn't make NQT not scum, only the contrapositve. I can like graphs and stuff, doesn't make them town though. Luckyowl can't lie on their own so they need someone that can. That's just easy rwading materi. I forgot what the point is budt don't think Lucky is scum, and nqt is gonna make me eat infographs for breakdast

[IcyTea31]

notquitethere

do you think Juice could be the devil?

Possibly. I think it's likely that it's someone active and closely familiar with Luckyowl's psychology. Offering "help to looking like town" is a less impactful offer than I'd expect from an experienced player, however. This profile could fit juice, minus the activity, but someone like Toaster or TricMagic would be a closer fit.

I don't think hunting the devil is a high priority right now, though.


Webadict, go to sleep. I didn't like your response but you're clearly not at top performance right now.

[ToonyMan]

MOD

I forgot to ask some questions earlier that 4mask reminded me of while reading, let's fix that.
@MOD:
Can third-party be converted?
Is every town role convertable? If not, which ones fail and what is the outcome?

Some of them. It depends on the role and sometimes who's doing the converting.
Most are. Sorcerers are immune to night actions and Monster Hunters either die to a conversion or are immune (depending on who's doing the conversion).

Which third-party can be converted?

Toony:  Why do you think Lucky is not a terrible lynch?

Because he's scum. I'm more convinced he's been scum all along to be honest. I want to trust Web's read but I can't.

Lucky feels...heavily filtered.

1. His posts have been sparse and delayed. He hasn't pushed any cases, he's only popped in to say he's town and to defend himself.

2. Someone else on his team could be the priest, meaning Lucky is still a possible converter (being completely puppeteered by his partners but still).

3. He has voted three times:
First on Day 1 to lynch a player he suspected as strong town so he can bring them back as confirmed?? (sure he says Web could be mafia, but Web isn't in their three mafia picks)
Second on Day 1 to save himself from getting lynched over Blue.
First on Day 2 as an OMGUS against 4maskwolf.

Complete shit votes that are either a terrible plan or to protect himself. Has not scum-hunted at all, which brings me to my next point.

4. He has actively participated less than Juicebox and Secretdorf and they're not even playing.

5. Claims a Devil visited them on Night 1 and they declined the offer. Lucky doesn't even fully read threads he's in as town, there's no way he would read other games. This smart-tell from Lucky makes me believe his scummates are assisting heavily.

Why wouldn't Lucky, a complete newb, accept a Devil deal?

"I just used up my priest revive, having another ability would surely help town."

The whole thing is fishy.