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[webadict]

Alright, finishing my reads because I'm not a quitter. However, I'll be nice and split them between posts, and I'll be doing other things in between. Throw questions at me if you'd like, I'm constantly watching.

Persus13/Secretdorf
So, Yesterday they got a super pass. I had them Yesterday at a pretty high scumread.

Persus13 left off Yesterday with a Toaster vote, but I want to see where they end up Today.

Persus13 starts out with a vote on IcyTea31, and some very minor sus on juicebox. Honestly not entirely sure what their take on juicebox is, but they definitely feel like they left the Toaster wagon. That's... good or bad. That points towards a Toaster/Persus13 x/x affiliation.

Persus13 is worried about guessing the scumteam, but that seems... really odd because Mephansteras said all roles are regifts, so a scumteam that matches one of the games is the most likely outcome. Like, I know I put 5 SKs in once, but that's definitely less of a Mephansteras thing.

Persus13 says they'd pick me for conversion. I, frankly, think that's logical choice, and it's at least somewhat genuine.

Persus13 votes Jim Groovester because their posts seem off. They're joining in the pressure with 4maskwolf. I... don't really feel the point behind it. They've still got their case on Toaster to work with, no?

Overall judgment: So, I'm actually gonna go out on a limb here and say that Persus13 drops slightly on the scum radar, down to 60% Scum on the condition that their probably alignment matched to Toaster. I'd normally be more suspicious of them, but it's also possible that it's role-related. If either flips scum, then add scum equity to the other. I'm not seeing a lot out of them, and that leans into both either scum or cop. They're not very pushy on a case so far, and I'd probably be harder on it if I weren't doing the same thing.

[webadict]

Hold up, I totally glanced over the fact that Persus13 claimed to have converted Toaster last time they were a Cult Leader, and them dropping the case on Toaster is now suddenly more suspicious. Bump it up to 66.6% Scum.

[Persus13]

Persus13 is worried about guessing the scumteam, but that seems... really odd because Mephansteras said all roles are regifts, so a scumteam that matches one of the games is the most likely outcome. Like, I know I put 5 SKs in once, but that's definitely less of a Mephansteras thing.

This I take issue with. I didn't say don't guess the scumteam, I said don't try and assume what Meph's thinking. There's a difference. The first relies on past information to make predictions, the other is making assumptions about what an individual is thinking at this moment in time. The first is reliable, the second is not.

[webadict]

Persus13 is worried about guessing the scumteam, but that seems... really odd because Mephansteras said all roles are regifts, so a scumteam that matches one of the games is the most likely outcome. Like, I know I put 5 SKs in once, but that's definitely less of a Mephansteras thing.

This I take issue with. I didn't say don't guess the scumteam, I said don't try and assume what Meph's thinking. There's a difference. The first relies on past information to make predictions, the other is making assumptions about what an individual is thinking at this moment in time. The first is reliable, the second is not.

You specifically directed this towards guessing the scumteam:

NQT and 4mask, I'm a bit worried you all are trying too much to outguess Meph here. I do agree that there are possibilities outside of full-blown Vampire Cult. If someone did block someone last night for instance, they should probably do so again to verify.

And if Blu's actually a Lone Vampire, he can start blocking people as well.

The reply seems most directed at 4maskwolf's posts:

Supernatural 1 Werewolf Leader
Supernatural 2 Cult Sexton
Supernatural 3 N/A (two player team)
Supernatural 4 N/A (two player team)
Supernatural 5 Werewolf Knight
Supernatural 6 Charismatic Cultist and Cult Knight
Supernatural 7 N/A (one player team)
Supernatural 8 Cult Leader
Supernatural 9 N/A (two player team)

I made an assertion yesterday that in the standard-style 3-person scumteams Meph always puts a "designated killer" role to carry the NK.

Utterly irrelevant atm but I'm bored and its interesting to know that my observation is accurate.

I don't really see what else you might've been referring to. Could you elaborate?

[ToonyMan]

Spoiler: Day 1 Reads (click to show/hide)

Reads

Strong Town
Jim Groovester - This is town Jim.
Webadict - My eyes kind of just glaze over when I see them responding to Vector. I think it looks like MVM2 though which makes me think they're both town so let's go with that. Also likes to buddy me extremely hard as town.

Weak Town
Vector - See above, although if one is mafia I would say Vector over Web. Anger of 4mask seemed genuine.
Juicebox - This looks like town!Juice to me, e.g. CYOM4.
TricMagic - Feels like town Tric to me, probably. I would dock more town points if this wasn't Tric acting like this.
IcyTea - Seems okay, I don't like their case on NQT.

TBD
NQT - I don't know, I'm always wrong about NQT. My first instinct is they're mafia, but that makes me think they're town. Gonna put them as the "cleanest" here.
Secretdorf/Persus13 - Secret is very newbie, but looks like newbie town to me. CYOM4.

Scum
Toaster - Weird behavior, don't trust at all.
BluarianKnight - Opportunistic scum. Not taking any chances after reading Vengeful 14, looks the same to me.
Luckyowl - I've never seen Lucky behave like this before. I've played at least half a dozen games with town!Lucky recently so it makes me heavily suspect. Newb scum.
Mafia

Third-Party
4maskwolf, like...80% sure they're survivor, 15% they're lying but another third-party, 5% chance they're actually mafia and their scum buddies started kicking them in scum chat.

Spoiler: Night 1 Reads (click to show/hide)

All that aside, after reading the EoD with a calm mind...

Juicebox is extremely shady.

Juice said they would be away for work during the day end. Fair enough, Toaster had a similar excuse (after voting Blue).

The difference is that Toaster never posted the rest of Day 1.

As soon as a Juicebox bandwagon formed (started by NQT), Juicebox is suddenly here and claiming.

Now why is that? My guess is that Juice has actually been following the thread the entire end of Day 1, but chose to lurk in the shadows while waiting for day end. That is extremely anti-town.

I get not being able to post much on your phone at work, but then if you have enough time to be reading the thread an hour before the day ends, why aren't you at least participating even a little bit at all?

Some other reads:

I'm lowering Jim slightly, lowering Vector a lot, and lowering Juicebox a lot.

Jim felt pretty lazy during EoD.

Vector was there, but I really didn't like how much "active-lurking" vibes I got from them. Felt like they were just waiting for the day to end. I also agree with IcyTea that they didn't seem to want a Juice lynch with no reason as to why.

I'm raising Webadict slightly, raising NQT slightly...I'm going to trust Web more and raise Lucky out of scum. I would rather lynch Juice/Vector/Toaster than Lucky today.

4maskwolf and IcyTea feel genuine to me, so staying in "good for town".

Still think TricMagic is town, just bad.

Toaster...slightly up. Here's their last big post for Day 1. Their reads are okay. Case on BK was wrong, but feels genuine? They looked totally willing to vote Juicebox instead. I'm also agreeing with their Vector gut read.

No clue on Persus...neutral.

Would be willing to vote Juicebox, Vector, Toaster, Lucky, and Persus in that order.

Current Reads

Strong Town
Webadict (+1)
Jim Groovester (-1)

Weak Town
TricMagic (0)
IcyTea (0)
NQT (+1)

Neutral
Persus13 (0)
Luckyowl (+2)

Scum
Toaster (+0.5)
Vector (-2)
Juicebox (-3)

Third-Party
4maskwolf (0)

Day 2 Reads

Not as much movement as between Day 1 and Night 1, but there's a couple things.

Webadict is who I feel is most likely converted if it's not Jim or Luckyowl. Their play in Day 2 has been very odd and aloof. At least they're making reads now. Leaving where they are for now...could genuinely just be not getting sleep.

Jim is in the same boat as Web. If it's not Lucky or Webadict I think the converter would nab Jim. Similarly to Web they haven't had anything to say. They're keeping their case on Persus (similar to me keeping my case on Lucky).

Lucky has been incredibly anti-town this entire game. The converter would get a possible twofer if they converted Lucky, but I'm more convinced they've been scum since D1. Most of my points are here. It's also been shown that Lucky is lying about information he supposedly received from Meph. Even if it's a misunderstanding he won't even try to clear it up, it's bad dude.

Juicebox/Caz is very scummy and can't provide any Dreamwalker info. I have a case on them. This is meta but I think replacing out silently is a scumtell too.

I've liked NQT so far this day...I sussed them but I think they're leaning town. Stays in weak town.

I've agreed with IcyTea this day and I think they're trying. Stays.

TricMagic...dumb town, I'm going to put them at the bottom of my weak town list though so slightly down.

I've been okay with Toaster so far, they seem town, going to move up to Neutral. Still suspect enough to lynch. I would probably convert them, but I don't think most players would.

Still have no read on Persus...I'm willing to believe they aren't scum, but I'm okay with their lynch, same boat as Toaster.

Haven't seen anything particularly suspicious with Vector, the main thing is this bizarre TricMagic vote. I feel like their vote cases have all been policy lynches. Feel pretty confident they've been scum since D1. This means the D1 scumteam would at least include Vector. That's what I'm feeling.

Still confident 4maskwolf is a Wererat like they claim. They're the first player to vote me in this game which I generally find to be a towntell...or in this case a notscumtell.

BluarianKnight is either a Lone Vampire like they claim or lying third-party/scum. I'm willing to believe they're a Lone Vampire for now. Having two survivors is pretty groan-inducing since they'll betray us if we play bad.

My Devil pick would be either IcyTea, NQT, Persus, or less likely Toaster.

Strong Town
Webadict (0, strong suspect as possible N1 convert)
Jim Groovester (0, strong suspect as possible N1 convert)

Weak Town
IcyTea (0)
NQT (0)
TricMagic (-0.5)

Neutral
Persus13 (0)
Toaster (+0.5)

Scum
Vector (0, don't have a solid case but suspicious nonetheless)
Juicebox/Caz (0, built case)
Luckyowl (-2, built case)

Third-Party
4maskwolf (0)
BluarianKnight (0)

[webadict]

@ToonyMan: If Luckyowl is scum, then there definitely wasn't a conversion last Night unless you think Meph gave a two-man scumteam a conversion and a rez, which is a two person swing. That's on top of the two other third parties in the game. Is that what you're proposing? Because I think that's pretty unbalanced if it is.

[webadict]

(Also, while I am not getting enough sleep, I would prefer you just assume I am and don't cut me slack for it.)

[Persus13]

I don't really see what else you might've been referring to. Could you elaborate?

This post is literally almost entirely based off "I don't think Meph would do this":

Couple things, Toaster.

One: two of the cult-types (charismatic cult and dark magus) are one-shot converts, therefore finding the converter is essentially a moot point at this point (at least as far as stopping conversions go). The third, vampires, which are a true cult and thus a worthwhile converter to find... This is probably a little angly, but I don't think we're looking at one just from a "evolving Bay12 meta" perspective. Full cults are really obnoxious to play into; full cults that keep the roles of people they convert are absolutely brutal. And, largely, over the years full cults have fallen out of favor and have been replaced by one-shot conversions for games that want to keep a bit of a cult flavor or give the wolves a little extra power. I'm pretty sure that a full cult hasn't been seen in supernatural since Supernatural 4 for a reason, and that Meph's experiments with the charismatic cult and dark magus were in part ways to try and work around the fundamental issues of a proper cult.

Personally, I'd argue that it's more likely the kill got blocked in some way last night than that we have an old-school vampire cult on our hands.

Two: Tricmagic has claimed knight, though whether you believe that claim or still think he's a softing werebear is up to you. Regardless, knight is a not-terrible fakeclaim for a converter because it discourages SK kills and doesn't have any difficult fake claims to keep up and I'd argue he belongs one level lower on the "who's the converter" scale.

I've seen games lost solely based on "I don't think the mod would do this". Rereading the context I can see where you're coming from but I WOULD NEVER say don't analyze past games and you should know better than that given that's been what I've been doing for this entire game.

[ToonyMan]

@ToonyMan: If Luckyowl is scum, then there definitely wasn't a conversion last Night unless you think Meph gave a two-man scumteam a conversion and a rez, which is a two person swing. That's on top of the two other third parties in the game. Is that what you're proposing? Because I think that's pretty unbalanced if it is.

Fair point...I am willing to vote not Lucky if they play the game. This would at least show to me they aren't staying quiet for scum's benefit. A town player shouldn't be afraid of posting.

(Also, while I am not getting enough sleep, I would prefer you just assume I am and don't cut me slack for it.)

If it's any reconciliation I suspect you over Jim as a convert.

[webadict]

Toaster
Hoo boy, this one's gonna be bad, I can feel it. See, Toaster's in a bad way. They've got lots of connections to the scummiest players, and they haven't fallen out of that hole yet. I liked their readlist Yesterday, but I wonder if their play holds up Today.

Was the first to point out that this was a cult, so that's like kinda scum equity, but also a null. Just the "I hate cults" thing is a scummy thing to say. Not much is said until their large post detailing their reads for who's the Converter. Looks mostly correct to me, and nothing immediately stands out as bad. It's just a meh mechanics read.

Ooo, but they continue to do the sucker punch random good post to me that makes it hard to justify them as scum. I also never got around to answering your questions, so:

Webadict:
Very convinced throughout D1 that Jim and Toony are town.  I'd love to see Web address that view of Has Always Been Town Jim/Toony, and not Potential Convert Jim/Toony, which he addressed here.  And sure, yeah, my Top Picks For Convert would be Jim/Toony/Web/Vector shooting from the hip; that's a fairly obvious list to make.  But what about reassessing them as cult leader?  Would like to see this from Web.

Web, what about TricMagic?  Do you still think they're town?  I still think you gave me too much grief for holding a vote on him until he stopped ignoring my question to him.

The thing is, I can't justify clearing them as scum because I'm pretty convinced one of them is a convert. The issue is determining which one because I wasn't converted. I also know that Vector would very likely have converted me, and I do not believe that Vector was converted. That's also using the obvious list, which isn't necessarily correct, but it's a good lead at the moment since we can always reread them.

If one of them is the Cult Leader, then, gun to my head, it'd be ToonyMan. I'm still under the assumption that Vector would have converted me. Technically, you could say that Vector is metagaming me pretty hard, but it's not worth the think just yet. If you'd like, feel free to call them less active Today, because they've definitely been less active, but I'm totally willing to shield them Today at least based on that because having...

Oh, I see what you mean now. You're saying ToonyMan and Jim Groovester are Cult Leader and Convert? That's like, the hottest of takes and it's super dangerous. Like... I'm not sure if I could think that one through. That's a Day 3 problem.

Anyway, this post alone raises you up a lot of Town equity. The next two are also great Townleans, and I like that progress is being made. I'll add that I am pretty sure that you're absolutely wrong on Vector, but I think you are right to suspect them.

I think I'll retract my previous scumread for now.

Overall judgment: 60% Town.

Additionally, I'll unvote because Toaster isn't worth eliminating.

[webadict]

@ToonyMan: If Luckyowl is scum, then there definitely wasn't a conversion last Night unless you think Meph gave a two-man scumteam a conversion and a rez, which is a two person swing. That's on top of the two other third parties in the game. Is that what you're proposing? Because I think that's pretty unbalanced if it is.

Fair point...I am willing to vote not Lucky if they play the game. This would at least show to me they aren't staying quiet for scum's benefit. A town player shouldn't be afraid of posting.

(Also, while I am not getting enough sleep, I would prefer you just assume I am and don't cut me slack for it.)

If it's any reconciliation I suspect you over Jim as a convert.

I can accept both of these. I think that it's not incorrect to suspect Luckyowl, but I do think it's incorrect that Luckyowl is scum. Luckyowl certainly needs to contribute or we're gonna be stuck in coinflip mode again.

[webadict]

I don't really see what else you might've been referring to. Could you elaborate?

This post is literally almost entirely based off "I don't think Meph would do this":

Couple things, Toaster.

One: two of the cult-types (charismatic cult and dark magus) are one-shot converts, therefore finding the converter is essentially a moot point at this point (at least as far as stopping conversions go). The third, vampires, which are a true cult and thus a worthwhile converter to find... This is probably a little angly, but I don't think we're looking at one just from a "evolving Bay12 meta" perspective. Full cults are really obnoxious to play into; full cults that keep the roles of people they convert are absolutely brutal. And, largely, over the years full cults have fallen out of favor and have been replaced by one-shot conversions for games that want to keep a bit of a cult flavor or give the wolves a little extra power. I'm pretty sure that a full cult hasn't been seen in supernatural since Supernatural 4 for a reason, and that Meph's experiments with the charismatic cult and dark magus were in part ways to try and work around the fundamental issues of a proper cult.

Personally, I'd argue that it's more likely the kill got blocked in some way last night than that we have an old-school vampire cult on our hands.

Two: Tricmagic has claimed knight, though whether you believe that claim or still think he's a softing werebear is up to you. Regardless, knight is a not-terrible fakeclaim for a converter because it discourages SK kills and doesn't have any difficult fake claims to keep up and I'd argue he belongs one level lower on the "who's the converter" scale.

I've seen games lost solely based on "I don't think the mod would do this". Rereading the context I can see where you're coming from but I WOULD NEVER say don't analyze past games and you should know better than that given that's been what I've been doing for this entire game.

Okay, but if that's your take on it, then the safe measure is to eliminate the highest threat level, which is either the Cult Leader, no?

I think if you want to think like that, then you're gonna have to investigate harder. We'll know for sure Tomorrow, though, but we'd like be hitting Mylo by Day 4, and it'd only get worse from there.

[webadict]

Also, I apologize, but I'm gonna go to bed to get real sleep.

For now, I'm replanting my vote on notquitethere. I believe they have a ton of scum equity, and I'd like to see their reads.

[Persus13]

I love what you're trying to do webadict, but its very demoralizing to be told to investigate harder because I certainly feel like I've been doing that. I've read the thread like three times today, I've tried to focus down individual players, I've tried looking at vote interactions, and at the end of the day I've got no clue or fresh insights on who the scum are. And for the second day in a row, we're lynching freaking LuckyOwl. I can tell you who I know the cult leader isn't. I'm certain its not NQT or 4mask, and maybe not Tric, and everyone knows its not Blu, but that's 4 players out of 12.

Sorry for the rant. D2 has been a demoralizing, unfun, slog for me, and whoever the scumteam is, they're denying me the msot fun parts of the game.

[Vector]

Haven't seen anything particularly suspicious with Vector, the main thing is this bizarre TricMagic vote. I feel like their vote cases have all been policy lynches. Feel pretty confident they've been scum since D1. This means the D1 scumteam would at least include Vector. That's what I'm feeling.

So ... voting Jim Groovester (D2), Toaster (D1), Webadict (D1), ICT (D1) and NQT (D1 and D2, current vote), are all policy lynches? *nod nod*, *strokes invisible beard*

Yeah, OK. LOL. Says the man toonying tunneling LuckyOwl.

Regarding the Tric point, I thought that Tric was claiming a third role with an actual action now, as opposed to flavor-actioning. You know, from Werebear to Knight to WTF. And I lost my temper. Oops.

But hey, putting 2 and 2 together from your post. You're seeing a Veckle/Lucky scumteam since D1 and don't think we have a cult. Is that right?

We're screwed, Lucky! Completely screwed! ToonyMan's caught us!

I'm certain its not NQT

Wait, why's that?