(Have patience Trick. I've been working on this for over 12 hours. I wanted to finish this off with some scum reads and my role claim, but I think I kept everyone waiting long enough)
It's very unfortunate that I was so busy yesterday and was only able to post in the morning, because while I was gone it seems like everyone went bonkers!
The town seems to be under many delusions, and it looks like I'll have to be the one to bring you guys back to reality
Delusion 1: Nirur Torir was giving off strong town reads, and my attempt to night kill him was something only scum would try to do.What was originally a sarcastic statement by Nirur Torir to question TricMagic's decision to use a protect on him, was taken seriously by LuckyOwl and inspired him to come up with a plan to lynch/sabotage me. One dumb player usually isn't worth this kind of fuss, but then some of you had the
brilliant idea of actually listening to LuckyOwl.
I did notice an interesting trend in the actions.
Heydude6 tried to kill me.
FoU redirected Heydude6 and myself to NQT.
Tric protected a few people, including me, because I give off such strong town vibes.
A strong town player with a powerful role dies, everybody involved gets plausible deniability for watchers and role claiming, and I'm alive for an easy lynch on lylo/mylo.
I'd still really like to know how I ended up with Vector's roles.
Heydude6: Why was I your best candidate for a kill?
Tric: What have I done that makes you think I'm town?
FoU: Why do you suddenly think I'm scum? You had me as neutral in your D2 read.
Heydude6: I think you did a gambit. Nirur Torir is most likely Town so you targeted him, but because FOU found NQT to be scummy he redirected your kill onto NQT.
Nirur Torir is an iffy pick for possible town. But considering Heydude6 was planning to kill him under the claim that IcyTea31 said if he dies then Nirur Torir was scummy. But why would Heydude6 jump the gun. I think his logic make sense.
LuckyOwl, where does this statement even come from? From what I understand, you're saying that my only reason for killing Nirur Torir was because Iceytea said he was scummy. Thing is, I reread the entirety of Day 2 in preparation for this and there is only one post Iceytea makes that calls Nirur Torir scum:
Locktown core (mechanical):
4maskwolf
notquitethere
Vector
Town core (social):
Luckyowl
heydude6
Townish:
dolores
FallacyofUrist
NJW2000
TricMagic
Scummy:
Leafsnail
Nirur Torir
Scum:
Jim Groovester
Lockscum:
Toaster
And it's a simple read list that does nothing to build a case. In addition, this list was posted early on, before 4maskwolf was even killed by lightning. What gave you the impression that this was my reason for targeting him?
It certainly wasn't because of something
I said, so let me try to explain my actual rationale.
As a player, Nirur Torir reminded me the most of Shakerag from the
the previous BYOR I participated in, at least in our Day 1. By that, I meant that he posted infrequently, but when he did post it was
pretty good stuff.
Thing is, Shakerag turned out to be scum in that game, and it shook me a great deal since he looked so town. But I realized that the reason why Shakerag was able to play this way was because of his inactivity. He could make good points, without ever having to follow them through to their conclusion and accidentally reveal his scum buddies.
Nirur was nowhere close to as good as Shakerag though, and the similarity broke down after Day 2. That's where more the more overtly scummy aspects of his character came through.
The first person who had a problem with Nirur was Vector, who felt that Nirur was just bandwagoning onto Toony.
Nirur Torir, bandwagoning.
It's a bit bare, but they elaborate on it a bit later
I'm not talking about where the cases came from, I'm talking about when and why the votes started piling up.
Hypothesis for the case is something along the lines of "Vector doesn't seem to care about people's motivations, despite that being the thing which indicates their alignment."
Oy vey. If a bandwagon forms super-rapidly based on non-mechanical reasons, people's stated motivations aren't necessarily the first thing to look at. When the votes pile on suddenly, it's really easy for scum to hide in the middle of that. "Slip another one on the stack," as it were. This is common to the point where old B12 play used to consider being third or fourth on the bandwagon to be intrinsically suspicious, regardless of stated reason.
One thing to do as scum, for example, is to make a lot of little cases here and there, looking for who you think town will want to lynch but not pulling the trigger, and let someone else start the bandwagon. Then hop on when it's "safe." I blasted y'all to check and see who was actually voting for their own reasons (or, well, see if anyone would jump).
Nirur Torir basically admitted to bandwagoning, and was also the only player who explicitly voted because of my initial post. That is why I am currently voting him.
I intend to go through his posts at some point when it isn't midnight.
Though I think they best articulated the idea during their Day 1 post. I post an excerpt, but you should click the link and read the whole thing.
Similarly: everyone who is piling on the bandwagon on the basis of my case is an idiot. ICT and Dolores don't actually have a case on Toony and Dolores has been taking it easy in my wake for the entirety of D1. I haven't figured out if that's a case of misplaced mentor-enthusiasm or buddying, but I'm just gonna say it: hey sweetie, I have faith in you. You can write short posts that have actual content. Maybe you'd like to try it sometime.
Nirur Torir especially jumped on that case like it was going out of style. 4th on the bandwagon, baby. If Toony flips town, so help me, I'm going to jump down your throat.
Though not a direct continuation of Vector's attack, Dolores also had some problems with Nirur that they layed out in more detail.
Nirur Torir
Strong post-RVS after they switched in. No engagement with any of the actual cases people were making in the later part of the day. Their take on the cases on ToonyMan, which I maintain were quite strong, was explosively bad. They totally mischaracterize some of the cases, particularly egregious is glossing over the fact that NJW was the one following up the slip in the first place. I'd lean towards saying that Nirur knew that Toony was town but couldn't actually fault the cases; especially when compared to how much work they had done previously in the more RVSy part of early D1, it's odd to see so little from them over the thing the day actually came down to.
"Why aren't you voting"
Fuck you that's why.
I want to construct the cases and be sure that I'm not wrong, but since you asked
Nirur Torir
I'd vote Vector but they're going to pretend that it bothers that I'm voting with them even though they're not going to convince one single person on this planet that I give a shit what they think and actually I'm more convinced at this point (prior to making the cases) that Nirur is scum, which is the only thing which really matters.
They're all scum though
(Vector, Nirur Torir, Toaster)
And then we completely abandoned that line of inquiry due to Toaster shenanigans.
When Nirur finally reappears in the thread, it's to mention that he's busy and wasn't able to post (plus meta musings).
I'm not trying to hide now that votes are on me, but I had social commitments for new years eve and won't be good for much else today. I'll have time tomorrow.
The end of day kerfuffle made something clear to me. Why would you ever suddenly try to lynch someone without a case in the last hour of day 1 because they did something weird? Everyone who did is either insane or scum.
That is, very few people are actually good at this crazy thing. My goal shouldn't be burning out my energy trying to read motivations, thinking all the other regulars can, and getting frustrated because I can't pick up the trick. Nobody can, thank you Dolores and your 90% chance of Toony being scum for illustrating this.
Is it really as simple as "build a case on anyone that seems a bit suspicious, see if it holds water, then post and see if others agree?"
It's certainly a plausible explanation, and I'm willing to bet there's truth to it, but this does make him inherently less trustworthy than someone who is actively participating in the game in a townie manner. It's simply because people who give off town reads are less suspicious than people who give off no reads.
The next time Nirur Torir comes up is when I mention him myself in the post I made shortly after coming out as a vig.
Some reads before anyone tries to strike me with lightning.
Leafsnail isn't lying about his action. He is the only person to claim to block Vector and Vector was indeed blocked. Could still be scum. (Ha! It was actually 4maskwolf who explicitly confirmed that Leafsnail's action was a roleblock. Leafsnail only confirmed it after 4maskwolf outed him)
The most likely person to attempt the scum kill was Nirur Tourir. I don't believe the scum didn't try to kill that night.
The claims chart is the strongest piece of evidence that Toaster might still be town. NJW confirmed his presence at Vector, and Toaster claims to have used a protect. We could doubt that protect claim, but we definitely know that he didn't do the scum kill cause Vector would otherwise be dead. It's strange that he inspected Iceytea and visited Vector at the same time, though having 2 night actions is not the craziest thing in this setup. Maybe his action against Vector was also an inspect and the mafia targeted the masons.
You could make the argument that Nirur Tourir is a better lynch candidate than Toaster, since he probably did the night kill, but trying to push a lynch on 4mask after inspecting Iceytea is very sus.
Nirur Torir
Are you going to try to defend yourself?
Looking back on this, I realize that I presented my conclusion and the evidence I used to reach it, but didn't present the argument I used to piece it together. I think it's pretty obvious when you look at NQT's chart, but in this situation it would be best to explicitly spell out my train of thought.
Lets assume the scum attempted their standard nightkill day 1. Who could have done it? According to the chart NQT posted, many of the actions that have been claimed were able to be verified by people who most of us saw as town (Iceytea, 4maskwolf). The only people whose actions were not verified this way were the following:
Trickmagic
Fallacy of Urist
Nirur Torir
Heydude6
Vector
Luckyowl
Fallacy and Luckyowl were both giving off strong town tells, I killed juicebox so I couldn't have additionally performed the standard nightkill. This left us with:
Trickmagic
Vector
Nirur Torir
I made the argument for why Trickmagic couldn't have been scum back in day 1 (and I'll be making another one again), Vector was an active player who didn't do anything noticeably bad (and had the backing of 4maskwolf's alignment inspect). Which left us with Nirur Torir as the most likely nightkiller.
This is not ironclad logic. Fallacy and Luckyowl were only cleared by fallible reads, while the inspect on Vector can be fraudlent like Iceytea's was. Trickmagic also pointed out how hats could fuck with this, though now we know Toaster had the protect hat. Only the roleblock hat is still unaccounted for which means Leafsnail could have also made the attempt.
What it is though, is enough evidence to prompt a further investigation. I wanted Nirur Torir to come out of the shadows and at least explain himself. And eventually he did.
This day was a crazy read. I take back what I said in the banter thread about using a BYOR game to attract new people.
I think we should induce a highly suspicious player who doesn't have a confirmable night action to take this badge by the end of the day:
No Bonk Badge - 100 pons
(1-Shot, Auto) No Bonk Badge: Whenever you use a kill action, it fails.
It could limit the mafia's ability to make night kills.
Buy a no bonk badge, because I don't have a kill and have a suspicious hole in my schedule.
Nirur Torir : What.did you do last night?
I have an abilities trade ability. I made the unfortunate mistake of trying to use it on Juicebox like it was a weird investigate. Yes, I know how that looks. I didn't get anything off the body.
I'll put it to better use tonight, now that I have a better idea in mind of who to give a particular ability to.
Nirur, can you confirm LuckyOwl's inspect? Do you have an RNG-type ability?
His 'misdeliver' read might be from my pizza delivery man flavor, but I have nothing random.
Well, 4maskwolf's death means Icytea31 lean closer to townie. Icytea31, Do you want me to use my buff on you so I can role investigate Jim?
No, because I'm literally dead now. I'll die at the end of the night phase.
I don't understand why Toaster doubled-down on tunneling Tea, after Tea's claim that they're dying tonight anyway.
Clearly scum, but I don't want to hammer.
Nirur Torir: How the hell was an ability swap meant to work as an investigative ability NIGHT ONE? Also, why were you the last to claim a night action?
I was thinking more about figuring out their role than their alignment.
I didn't have the energy to defend myself from the attacks against me I was sure the last two RL days were full of, and was dreading/procrastinating on reading through it.
People didn't find his answers very satsifying, and likewise neither did I. That's why when the night came I decided to use my vig kill on him since he was the least trustworthy player. Leafsnail was also a candidate, but the rolename revealed in Toony's will made me suspect that he'd be hard to kill and what do you know, I was right!
Delusion 2: Tricmagic might be scumI explained back in Day 1 why this would be nearly impossible, but Jim's inspect sure confused some of you.
Nirur Torir for now. I'm going to go back and reread NQT's D1 analysis and some other stuff.
I note that this calls into question Jim's scan on Tric.
TricMagic: He honestly wanes on me. Why would Jim investigate TricMagic truthfully? Jim wouldn't lie about you being third party or even mafia. Because when you flip it would've destroyed Jim's cred. So yeah, that investigation is very suspicious. I have you as third party, but I would even say that you might be the mafia.
I completely skipped that, so you have to remind me who and ask if it wasn't tampered with. Jim may have been mafia, but he did clear me as town. To argue otherwise when they could have gotten an easy third-party lynch would require you disprove my hats' abilities.
And no, webadict did say that it saying night doesn't mean it can't be used during the day. But that may simply be because I'm the Hat Kid. Go ahead and ask, I'll wait. (Not longer than 12 hours though, time is ticking, like sand in a hourglass.)
Note lying can easily be cleared by one of two people. Unless all three of you are mafia and hoarding the hats.
What? You could easily have your role as mafia, and Jim could've called you town in order to make us think you're not mafia.
First off, apologies NJW, that attempt was insultingly weak.
And why, pray, did you need to know Juicebox's role so badly?
To try to figure out if someone laying low had a pro-town power role or had scummy looking powers.
I did notice an interesting trend in the actions.
Heydude6 tried to kill me.
FoU redirected Heydude6 and myself to NQT.
Tric protected a few people, including me, because I give off such strong town vibes.
A strong town player with a powerful role dies, everybody involved gets plausible deniability for watchers and role claiming, and I'm alive for an easy lynch on lylo/mylo.
I'd still really like to know how I ended up with Vector's roles.
Heydude6: Why was I your best candidate for a kill?
Tric: What have I done that makes you think I'm town?
FoU: Why do you suddenly think I'm scum? You had me as neutral in your D2 read.
Among our victims we have Luckyowl (no surprise), Leafsnail, and Vector. Nirur Torir also throws some slight shade at Tric by very subtly impling that Tric protected him from me in order to keep Nirur alive till MYLO, to tempt the town into myslynching him. Ha, even Nirur knows it was a good idea for !townme to kill him!
What Nirur did was a simple harmless observation, but Vector's Tric paranoia is more severe. They ended up stubbornly holding onto their dweller mask, rather than giving it to someone who could make better use of it out of unwarranted mistrust:
I know I'm town, I don't know that you are town, and as you mentioned the hat would be useful for the scumteam. So: no.
I don't really care if you block me. It's annoying to be depowered but solving the game is more important.
Ironically out of all the accusers, Luckyowl is the one who's talking the most sense. I'll put the exchange in a spoiler so you guys can read it for yourselves.
Jim may have been mafia, but he did clear me as town.
TricMagic were you caught off guard by the unexpected modkill? Because Jim was the mafia anything he said will come off unfaithful. So why would Jim, faithfully reveal your alignment as town?
And that's fine. Maybe Jim wanted to help town a bit to make himself look town. I don't have a problem with his claim. However, I do have a problem when you claim Jim is townie. So I'll circle back to my first question.
Were you caught off guard by the unexpected modkill?
LuckyOwl is most likely referncing this post near the start of Day 2.
11/1/4 is the current set right? For now I can say I used Leave Comment on Jim last night. No roleblock message, so assume that went through. High chance of the modification working if he is town. Medium chance it worked if they weren't town but SK based upon current instinct. Some chance Leave Comment doesn't do anything. Either way I'll put them at soft town until proven otherwise, which is good enough for me.
Thing is, Luckyowl made the same mistake as well until I corrected him.
If Jim Groovester is going to be our trusted cop I might as well use my day action on him so he can investigate two player every turn when the night phase comes around.
Heydude6: Sometimes you have to go with your gut on this. Jim Groovester going through all that length to set up a fake alignment investigation? It's possible, but Jim knowing the game know the consequence of exposing himself like this. We still have 13 players with a partial role claim from me and Jim. If Did lie about what he did. He would run the risk of having someone coming out with game mechanic evidence that Jim is full of shit.
I was only able to teach him to have a sliver of doubt.
The thing you gotta realize Luckyowl, is that Tric is no expert at mafia. He also makes silly mistakes just like you. Trickmagic is the kind of player who would be completely oblivious to Jim's unhelpful play during Day 1 and just see him as a neutral player being 100% honest about his alignment inspect. Without the context of Day 1, soft town until further notice is a very reasonable, dare I say correct read. The key words are "soft" and "until further notice". It means he's ready to pounce on the first bit of evidence that he sees to the contrary.
Which he did when he saw
Fallacy's case.
And posts like this are why I can't really see fries as a bad thing. The crowning sure, but death is dead, and scum over third party makes more sense than a maybe-third party revival.
Legendary Exterminator, what say you? Also is this vote valid webadict?
That is not a valid vote target.
Jim Groovester
I think his defence here was weakly presented, but I agree with the overall point. I'll be covering what I think about Jim.
Fun, looking to remove the protector Luckyowl? As it stands, I have hats, which protect or delay. Somewhere there is a roleblock hat. I do not have kills.
Also finally got back on webadicts waffling. Apparently someone may have an ability to make a night action usable during the day.
To note, Jim may have been mafia, but he did clear me. The may is not questioning here, it is simply what happened. His death throws that claim into question, but only because mafia wants to use it to lynch me just in case I protect myself. At the time, it was Jim's towncred and mislead about his actual ability. I don't think he would lie if I was third party, cause my death would reveal him as a lier. That leaves 3 mafia left. The Outsider has already been removed. Possible Fal is doing something as third party, or Heydude is something, but town likely does have the power to lynch.
With that out of the way, I'd like to explain why Trick can't be scum.
I'll start by repeating the argument I made in Day 1, although I recommend starting with the summary I wrote below instead.
Trickmagic: Definitely third party. Some people say he's scum and I'm just not seeing it. I know role names aren't alignment indicative (maybe hat kid got caught in another contract again), but abilities can be. An item shop usable by everyone and an ability that automatically harvests macguffins from dead players both give me 3rd party vibes. Can any of the veterans here tell me if there's a precedence for people with this kind of ability being scum?
The fearlessness behind the reveal is still scummy though. If any of the scum team has a hat, then TricMagic has an incentive to want them dead that can't be talked out of. They can of course give him the hat, but why do that when you can just kill him? Not a problem if Tricmagic is scum though.
If that were the case though, scum would have already given him their hats and given him a head start on his stated goal of becoming more powerful. I don't think Web would let this happen, so if Tric were scum somehow, then the hats would all belong to townies. Since all items are give able, you would suddenly have an easy way of confirming town.
Since a random hat distribution and a town-only hat distribution both lead to absurd mechanical exploits when Tric is Scum, I have to conclude that he really is a third-party. Unless Tric has massively lied about how his role works. That's also a bit absurd from someone like Tric, but I think he may have done this before. Can any of the veterans confirm if this is the case?
He could also be town, but-
Bahahahahahah! Sorry, I couldn't say that with a straight face. It's more likely than him being scum, but it would be hilarious if that were the case after everything that's happened.
So, since Tric is third party, what should we do about him? As far as I know, the badge shop benefits the town more than scum, and the hats do not seem like they can do much actual harm. The most dangerous ones are Time-stop hat, Dweller mask, and Brewer's hat, while sprint hat and ice hat are outright altruistic. I don't think Tric is lying about what the hats do because the person who has the real thing would have called it out.
To me, the decision all revolves around whether he has a night-kill. If he does, then we need to get rid of him cause a third party would totally murder Iceytea for their hat. If the worst thing he can do to town is vote though, then I'm totally keen to leave him in search of bigger fish.
It's a bit long and unwieldy, so let me try to summarize the main points.
- Trickmagic might be either third-party or town, but he can't be scum
- If Trick were scum, then if his hats were randomly distributed, the scum buddies that got hats would just immedietaly give Trick their hats to make him more powerful.
- If the hats had a town-only distribution, town would have an easy way of confirming fellow townies since hat-owners (which are all townie) could just give the hats away to someone to confirm their alignment.
- Scum-only hat distribution has already been disproven by evidence. Since there is no hat distribution model for !scumTric that doesn't lead to some sort of mechanical exploit, we can conclude !scumtrick is impossible.
In my orignal post, I concluded that Tric was third party, but that was solely because I dismissed the possibility of Trick being town because of his behaviour. There was nothing in the mechanics that stopped him from being town. His behaviour also improved during day 2.
With this in mind, I would like to discuss the meaning of Jim's actions and Trick's response.
First, we got to answer the question of why Jim would do this public inspect. The answer is quite simple, Jim didn't leave the best impression during day 1 and he had a high chance of being targetted by towny abilities. I was certainly planning to kill him. What his inspection did was introduce an element of doubt into the matter of Jim's guilt and buy him some time. Time that can be used to repair his reputation. First, it's a cop claim that's backed up by more than just words. Second, Trickmagic was one of our more enigmatic players, and I at least was curious about what Jim had to say about him (even if he was scum). Curious enough to stay my hand and let him live another day. The scan literally saved his life.
The question now is, why did Jim claim Trick was town? There are many reasons for both !townTrick and !3rdpartyTrick.
Let's start with claiming !townTrick as town.
- Giving a sincere claim boosts his credibility, especially if Trick dies and flips town
- Giving an insencere claim would cause Trick to protest and draw attention to Jim, possibly getting him lynched
- If Jim actually does get Tric lynched after claiming he was third party, then he's almost certainly next. Honesty is safer.
- If Jim's alignment is revealed, town will have a new reason to doubt Trick's alignment and possibly mislynch him (ie. what's happening now)
Some downsides
- Confirming a contentious townie makes them more difficult to mislynch, though I think scum could have pulled it off. Nightkills are also a fine last resort that would bolster Jim's credibility
And for claiming !3rdpartyTrick as town?
- Jim wanted to show Trick that the mafia would be willing to work with him to acheive his win condition. Jim doesn't have to fear Trick blabbing since exposing Jim would force Trick to expose himself as 3rd party and risk a lynch
- Tric might have still contested Jim's truthful claim of him being third party, and possibly may have gotten Jim lynched.
- Jim wanted the third party to stay hidden, so town would have to pursue the lynching of other townies. Third parties are generally bad for town.
Some downsides
- Trick could have called the lie anyway to convince the town that he was a town-aligned third party
- If Tric flips for other reasons, Jim's lie would be exposed and would certainly get him lynched next
- Jim sacrifices the credibilty he would have gained by calling Tric a 3rd-party and getting him succesfully lynched. This would also be another Lynch not used against scum.
I'll also briefly address claiming any Tric as scum. Jim doesn't have the reputation to push such a lynch. You saw what happened to Toaster?
Anyway, that's all I wanted to say about the Jim situation. There's logic for both possible Trick alignments here, but I would say scum benefits more if the claimed town on a genuinely town Tric. Thing is, scum can't control Tric's actual alignment, but I think there are compelling reasons to actually call Trick's third party alignment what is, compared to the near lack of reasons if Trick is town.
Personally, I think Tric is Town. He's honest about information and he's a good explanation for why there weren't any succesful scumkills last night. Plus, all of his hats are very protective in nature (besides dweller mask) while I beleive a third party Tric would want there to be carnage so he could loot the corpses. I beleive 3rd-party Trick's hats would compliment this goal better.
If you're still not convinced, know that Tric's alignment doesn't matter at this point. It's MYLO. We have to lynch scum. And there is 0% chance that Tric is scum.
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Topic: BYOR 15: Game Over - Mafia Win (Kinda?) (Read 111157 times)