I agree with some of this, the reasoning is a little fuzzy at other points, I suspect. I'm not going through this with a fine-toothed comb, for reasons explained below.
The thing about moderator error is a little unpleasant to think about - can't really have Wuba confirm stuff like that in the thread, as that's free info. I'd be happy if we wanted to ask him to though... a sportsmanship thing really. It does rather neatly explain some stuff though, so I'm inclined to believe it. Note that it being true does NOT clear heydude - mafia claiming vig would basically have to try to shoot Nirur at that point.
Heydude: if we lynch scum, you SHOULDN'T kill anyone tonight. We're pretty good at stopping the mafiakill, unless it's a daykill or you're doing it, so we'll probably end up in a 5v2 situation D4, which is much better than the likely alternative of 4v2 if you do kill.
Screw all this, I can't read people based on standard thread analysis, because there are too many new players and older players with a great deal more style substance. I can't read people based on mechanical solving because this is a high-powered closed semi-bastard setup, apparently with moderator errors.
I'm going with gutreads. So don't ask me to explain my voting choices if you like reasonable explanations.
People I'm willing to lynch:
Vector
LuckyOwl
FoU
heydude if there's no explanation for non-heydude scumkills not occuring in the night -
waiting for a reply from wubba on what happens if a kill and a block have the same priority. Nevermind, Wuba confirmed that priority 1 kills could be blocked by priority-1 actions. So... possibly Tric's been saving us repeatedly! I'm pretty on board with the "don't lynch TricMagic" point above, although not entirely for the same reasons.
Nirur Torir if none of the above possible.
Will this post make me look hilariously stupid once the game resolves? Yes, yes it will, I'd imagine.
Anyway, I hope this claim kills any idea of me being the mafia's dedicated nightkiller since my kills rely on spending a consumable resource that can technically be replenished, but is overall worse than a standard mafia night kill.
So you realise that people may not believe your claim, right
FoU: does this claim jive with your investigation results?
Note: for anyone wondering, if different actions like a block and a kill occur at the same priority that would normally interfere with one another, something like natural action resolution occurs. Webadict confirmed this.