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[Teneb]

Teneb is replacing himself.

Um... what?

I asked for replacement due to a (health-related) scare. Turns out it was not as bad as I thought, so I'm coming back to the game.

I'll read the thread and do a post when done.

[Deus Asmoth]

Saying that you're supporting your case is not the same as supporting your case. For example, I think you're scum because you've been tunnelling NQT for the majority of the game, to the point where you spelled your 'guilty until proven innocent' attitude to him out yourself. Your vote on him today was justified with nothing more than WIFOM, and you've been misreading him so often that I think it's reasonably likely that you're just trying to derail or strawman his arguments. Can you provide a summary of the case you have on NQT?

[Tawa]

Can you provide a summary of the case you have on NQT?

NQT has been acting suspiciously all game and tried to sustain his lies far, far beyond any reasonable point. Two different parties seemingly intervened to stop Jack's test, implying that he's allied with somebody. He seems to have an incredible reliance on theories, without making his own situational judgements.

There's also this little issue here. He claims that his claims were reaction fishing. Why would he need to pull that to reaction fish? There was absolutely no reason for him to gambit in order to reaction fish. His entire play just seems like one big refuge in audacity.

[flabort]

There's also this little issue here. He claims that his claims were reaction fishing. Why would he need to pull that to reaction fish? There was absolutely no reason for him to gambit in order to reaction fish. His entire play just seems like one big refuge in audacity.

Basically all reaction fishing is gambiting. But it's usually considered a safe gambit.

So you're claiming NQT was lying, is now trying to appear dumb on purpose to avoid lynching, and you're tunneling on him.

I feel you're acting scummier than NQT right now. Taw.

[Tawa]

Basically all reaction fishing is gambiting. But it's usually considered a safe gambit.

Exactly my point. He didn't really do a safe gambit; he made a gigantic lie for the sake of reaction fishing.

...[NQT] is now trying to appear dumb on purpose to avoid lynching...

Can I borrow some straw from your man? I never said this. Ever.

...and you're tunneling on him.

Did I not literally just say that I was going to back off?
Deus Asmoth: Why didn't you vote on Fallacy yesterday, if you're concerned about me tunneling?
flabort: Explain why you think I'm scummier than NQT.
FallacyofUrist: You tunneled on NQT first. How scummy do you think he looks, and how scummy do you think I look?
Tiruin: You put in some sort of pseudovote on NQT. How scummy do you think he looks?
Teneb: You were the first person to vote me during the game. How do you think I look now?

[flabort]

flabort: Explain why you think I'm scummier than NQT.

1) Well, I just explained how your tunneling. NQT is spreading out his accusations.
2) When you do throw out a FoS or vote on someone you're not tunneling on, you just throw it out (Like Deus said, lazy voting). NQT is supporting ALL of his cases, far as I can see.
3) Rather than properly refute points, you're just being arguementative with short replies. Most of NQT's responses have been longer and well reasoned.
4) Analysis of votes and FoSs indicates that you only ever had two suspects; one is dead, and the other is NQT. This goes back to the whole tunneling issue. NQT's votes and FoSs indicated first that he suspected myself, then 4mask, Jack, Deus Asmoth, myself again, and then TheDarkStar.  Not having any suspects is indicative that you may actually know who is town and who is scum; which colors your perception of each player.

[notquitethere]

Jack, I guess you've got a bit of a point. Perhaps the stronger aspect of the theory I should emphasise is that the scummiest response is not to engage at all with the player making wild claims or acting oddly (like Lenglon, for instance, in the BYOR) and some players (like Tiruin in this game) have been acting in a similar way.

Tawa

Exactly my point. He didn't really do a safe gambit; he made a gigantic lie for the sake of reaction fishing.

That's not exactly true though, is it? I didn't lie purely for reaction fishing, but, as I made clear, to ensure I lived through N1. Given that additional motivation, my fake power claims should make more sense to you.

[FallacyofUrist]

FallacyofUrist: You tunneled on NQT first. How scummy do you think he looks, and how scummy do you think I look?

Though the possibility of some sort of jester or survivor is within reason, NQT still looks rather scummy(for reasons I've already given many times before). As for your own scumminess... beyond the lack of large posts, not much says that you're scum. And as you've said, you like to be concise(I'm paraphrasing).
~~~

Tiruin: Here's two scenarios for you. Scenario one: Assume NQT was a mafioso. Which two people would most likely be his scum buddies? Scenario two: suppose some strange serial killer let lose a nuclear ability that only left you, NQT, and Tawarochir alive for the next day. What would your immediate course of action be? And here's a bonus scenario 3: Why do you think my gut says that you're scummy(what unconscious signal doth thou broadcast)?

[Tawa]

flabort: Explain why you think I'm scummier than NQT.

1) Well, I just explained how your tunneling. NQT is spreading out his accusations.
2) When you do throw out a FoS or vote on someone you're not tunneling on, you just throw it out (Like Deus said, lazy voting). NQT is supporting ALL of his cases, far as I can see.
3) Rather than properly refute points, you're just being [links removed] argumentative with short replies. Most of NQT's responses have been longer and well reasoned.
4) Analysis of votes and FoSs indicates that you only ever had two suspects; one is dead, and the other is NQT. This goes back to the whole tunneling issue. NQT's votes and FoSs indicated first that he suspected myself, then 4mask, Jack, Deus Asmoth, myself again, and then TheDarkStar.  Not having any suspects is indicative that you may actually know who is town and who is scum; which colors your perception of each player.

-Yeah, I see your point there.
-I'm pursuing my best suspect. He's had a lot of suspicion thrown on him, and I wanted to explore that to its fullest. Hence the reason I backed off for a while, while I read the thread and look at other angles of the case and see if anybody else strikes me as odd.
-Sorry if I come across as a bit argumentative. I try to be concise, and I suppose I might get overly sarcastic and such at times. For the record, I never had any intention of coming across very impolitely here, though. The connotations of that term are seemingly a bit weaker to me than others. He put up one hell of a fight that day.
-I've had my eye on Jack for a while, as well, but I've been keeping that internalized, perhaps unintentionally. Thank you for the advice, though. My play style up to this point has kind of accidentally encouraged tunneling, it would seem; I have a bit of a habit of trying to wring people dry instead of pursuing a multitude of suspects. Well, past the RVS, anyway.

That's not exactly true though, is it? I didn't lie purely for reaction fishing, but, as I made clear, to ensure I lived through N1. Given that additional motivation, my fake power claims should make more sense to you.

Why were you so afraid of dying N1?

[notquitethere]

Why were you so afraid of dying N1?

I thought I explained that already. The last game I played, I died as town on N1. I need a day's worth of information and a role-flip to be able to do any analysis worth a damn. I flatter myself that I'm a high-quality target for a night kill.

[Tawa]

Hm. Alright.

[flabort]

For the record, I never had any intention of coming across very impolitely here, though. The connotations of that term are seemingly a bit weaker to me than others. He put up one hell of a fight that day.

Admittedly my weakest piece of evidence, though it would seem for good reason.

-I'm pursuing my best suspect. He's had a lot of suspicion thrown on him, and I wanted to explore that to its fullest. Hence the reason I backed off for a while, while I read the thread and look at other angles of the case and see if anybody else strikes me as odd.
-I've had my eye on Jack for a while, as well, but I've been keeping that internalized, perhaps unintentionally. Thank you for the advice, though. My play style up to this point has kind of accidentally encouraged tunneling, it would seem; I have a bit of a habit of trying to wring people dry instead of pursuing a multitude of suspects. Well, past the RVS, anyway.

I used to play this way too; sometimes still do, as far as internalizing suspects. I got lynched (iirc) over that sort of playstyle, though, so it's kind of been beaten into my head that I need to spread out and so does everyone else.

As far as Jack goes, there's only a 1/5 chance he's scum; according to my cop ability, anyways. It's why I've stated I trust him. What other targets catch your eye?

I don't mind you pursuing NQT if he's your best suspect, as long as you use a little evidence to back up your answers and find a couple more suspects.

[Tawa]

I don't mind you pursuing NQT if he's your best suspect, as long as you use a little evidence to back up your answers...

I'll admit I've been going out on a limb, but I feel that there's enough statements from him of unclassifiable veracity for me to continue placing him under heavy suspicion.

As far as Jack goes, there's only a 1/5 chance he's scum; according to my cop ability, anyways. It's why I've stated I trust him. What other targets catch your eye?

Well, Fallacy and Deus both seem a little fishy, and I haven't been able to get a read on Tiruin, TDS, and Teneb at all. That said, I don't think that Teneb or Tiruin seem very scummy yet, since both have been facing meatspace troubles rather than organized, intentional lurking.

Also, you have a cop ability? Can you elaborate on this?

[flabort]

Spoiler (click to show/hide)

Claim 3 I gain power from roleflips

Claim 5 I have a not-always-sane investigative ability

At least these two claims were true, and are related.
I can investigate someone at night, and there is a 3+n/4+n chance that I get the correct result, where n is the number of (unobscured, I assume) roleflips there have been.

I investigated Jack, and got the town result. There had already been a flip (day 1 lynch), and the night kill occurred after (order of actions).

[Jack A T]

Ugh, I feel like this game is flying past me.

Fallacy: I do have some speculation to offer, mostly surrounding the things done to me.  I'll save that for after Tawarochir answers my questions, though.  If I don't answer after that, please remind me.

Fallacy: Alright, my speculation: As of the time I made the quoted post, I believed the redirector was not from the scumteam, and the blocker was.  Scum had a lot to gain from blocking me, at least based on the D1 statements that I'd be ultrascummy if my action gave no results (and, well, the fact that results were otherwise coming).  The mafia had a lot less to gain from redirecting or randomizing me, whether NQT was scum or not, and nobody else had nearly as much to gain from blocking me.  That is to say, I believed the target of my randomize was coincidental.  Don't have much on the kill itself (I prefer not speculating too much about NK targets).

NQT's claim is completely consistent with my prior beliefs, and I am inclined to believe him.

Jack, I guess you've got a bit of a point. Perhaps the stronger aspect of the theory I should emphasise is that the scummiest response is not to engage at all with the player making wild claims or acting oddly (like Lenglon, for instance, in the BYOR) and some players (like Tiruin in this game) have been acting in a similar way.

NQT: Stronger, yes.  Strong, no.  Still based on the quite varied behaviour of only 5 players (mostly even only 4 players) in only a few pages of only 1 game, and still dependent on no major changes between that game and this one.  Certainly stronger than the part about town behaviour, but that isn't exactly a high bar to pass.  How much do you feel you can depend on even this stronger segment of your theory?  How reliable do you think it is?

PPe: Jack, who would you say those experienced players are?

flabort: I'd say people like Tiruin, Teneb, NQT, possibly even you...

Anyway, why investigate me, and how willing are you to depend on a 4 in 5 chance of accuracy?  (You having a poor version of a standard power makes sense, by the way.  Sort of like my currently unrevealed power.)

So are you referring to that inspect which did nothing and therefore didn't accomplish much other than as a reaction test for NQT when you ask people about your test or are you talking about how everyone else responded to it?

Deus: I can understand you looking at only the start stuff.  My language is a bit unclear.  Your shallow, surface-level view of it as only a reaction test for NQT is ridiculous, though.  Absolutely ridiculous.  Reaction test, yes.  For just NQT?  How do you even hit that conclusion even with only taking public statements into account?

Tawarochir: Spoiler.  Sorry about the length.

Spoiler: Tawarochir! (click to show/hide)

Everybody: which of you, if any, would be comfortable revealing your pictures if asked? I'm not asking anybody to reveal their pictures right now, mind. I'm just looking for reactions.

Not much you'd find out from the picture, and I'm almost willing to fullclaim anyway.

1. I'm not sure what it does--maybe redirects his actions to whoever he nightkills--but the point is that you got redirected to the guy who got killed while targeting NQT, which is most likely not coincidental.
2. Mafia or SK.

Whoa, whoa, whoa.  SK?  Any alignment guess that requires a convoluted explanation to make NQT both the killer and an active redirector to the killed is a guess best thrown away.  Particularly when it leaves no scumkill.

5. It means you've either uncovered very strong evidence of NQT being mafia or SK or that you're scum who is inexplicably drawing attention to himself by saying he used an ability on the nightkilled player.

...I uncovered Very Strong Evidence by being blocked and redirected?

Anyway, if NQT/NQTteam was redirector, and NQT/NQTteam was killer, THEN WHO WAS BLOCK?  Who gains from stopping my action separately?
Looking through your extended case on NQT, it looks like you think that was also NQT's team, which leads to a question: Why?  Why throw so much force at me?  Why waste so many of the scum's limited resources on one guy?

And all this is built on the idea that since my target only had an 11% chance of being my target randomly (as with any other random target), and the target was significant for reasons outside of me, it must have been non-random?

Also, something suspicious I noticed with your scum list: There's a very clear contradiction between Jack's claim and your claim. Jack says somebody blocked him. You redirected him. If you're town, why would somebody block Jack? Yet, you have not addressed this once and just put him midway down the list, above your supposed "scum team".

...That's not a contradiction, and the very first post of D2 featured a reason why I would be blocked by scum in such a case.  What do you think of that reason?  You seem to have completely dismissed it, but why?

Two different parties seemingly intervened to stop Jack's test, implying that he's [NQT's] allied with somebody. He seems to have an incredible reliance on theories, without making his own situational judgements.

First: How does that imply NQT's allied with somebody?  Doesn't it imply two people acting separately more than anything else, what with the redundancy?
Second, yeah, NQT has that problem.  He loves his beautiful theories, but sometimes lets them control his play.

-I've had my eye on Jack for a while, as well

Interesting.  Why?