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Author Topic: Mostly Vanilla Mafia: Gameover. The Smoke! It's In The Smoke! Was It Worth It?  (Read 93592 times)

hector13

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MM.

The other post is just me considering other, less likely possibilities.
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IcyTea31

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IcyTea

Unvote.

I'm not sure how to react to those walls. I'll park my vote on MM, but I'll need to reread the thread and look at the big picture.

How did your re-read go?
Nothing substantial. There's a certain lack of heart from both you and MM in the earlier phases, but you've both accelerated since then. I really don't know, at least this late in the evening.

and your claim was backed up by IcyTea, necessitating you and IcyTea being on the same team.
I think said claim is plausible, but I have little to actually back it up.

Starver and IcyTea have a dance around them visiting each other N1. Seems legitimately like Starver knows who visited them, and that he knows they know he knows they visited. IcyTea also hints that his target knows he visited them. Scum setting up a gambit? An odd one if so.
Blocker and blocked. A simple connection to make, really, especially when it seems I've been the only one to use a block on either night.
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IcyTea31

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Communal extend.
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Starver

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Starver: what did you mean by Mad or Bad in the linked post?
For context, you need to read further:
Quote
I've learnt that Tric is likely either Mad or Bad. Either that or I am (Mad, at least).

There may be someone else messing with me [...]
The key thing is that there was someone else messing with things. Probably two someones. I was clearly blocked (from my perspective - with the Jailkeeper, or at least Roleblocker, that we have heard claimed) at the same time as Tric's claimed action seems to have been Delayed.

Before we worked out that it was this combination, I was left having experienced a Block, with a clear claim that Tric had visited but with weirdness that did not match Tric's claim. Thus (and especially after we got RGU's part, not yet a complete answer) Tric may have been Mad (Insane or with hidden side-effects to the skill) or Bad (lying about the action, evem if ghere had been an action, trying to take Townie-style credit for something they did not actually know had happened just to pre-counterclaim the real actor), or else it was myself who had it wrong (by implication, just the Insanity of my action coming back at me as totally not what the supposed ability was).


That changed after a bit more information a bit more working out.

If one can engirely trust the claims, a Jailkeeper acting alone would not have thwarted Tric (and I would have known about Tric N1). A Delayer upon Tric alone would have, all else being equal and assuming nobody nastier needed to have been thwarted to let me survive, resulted in me knowing about Tric (and Tric about me, their way) on N2 without the confusion of me having received a Blocked message. If Tric had gone elsewhere and also done what was intended, I woupd have been Blocked (against..?) and Tric would have had a Delayed result against whatever answer would have been normally returned.

I think it's safe to say that both Delay and Block happened, and the mess of logic if one tries to second guess Tric is beyond my own considered level of likelihood. And even though the motives behind thr acts can be questioned, we (or I) can probably dismiss all those involved from having the necessary free actions left to do the (so far) unsolved killings personally, so the perpetrator(s) of the N1 death ought to be someone else (with other caveats, like the flipped Even Night Vig also excluded, currently Juice is highest on my radar), even if that isn't quite so guaranteed for the N2 death.

What it does mean is that we have a shorter short-list of killer-possibilities that we can lynch or at least force an explanation out of to show how it was an Odd Night Vig jumping to conclusions and getting it wrong, or somesuch (but make it a better claim than that, now that I've suggested it to you, or at least flesh it out more to show you're not just copying my suggestion).

I think I will change my FoS to a Vote for Juice if Juice is now active and capable (though seemingly not yet willing) to defend themselves with relevent revelations. Also given thr Community Extend is being sought (though I don't think we now need it so much).
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randomgenericusername

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RGU

Is it okay if I just switch my vote to mightymushroom? I was convinced by hector's post and my case against TricMagic isn't as strong. I'm not very convinced by the JOAT claim either and I feel his lynch would give us more information to work with. Even if we're worng, we have already lynched scum and an ally, so there shouldn't be a lot of scum left. I don't think we have more than 2 scum alive. Otherwise, 4 scum and a mafia-ally would make a team of 5 and that would be almost half of the town.

What makes you think my case against MM is stronger than your case against Tric?

What makes you think I'm not convinced about his JOAT claim? Why are you not convinced by the JOAT claim?

What information would you expect from a MM lynch? What information would you expect from a Tric lynch?

Do you think MM is scum? Do you think Tric is scum?

I was voting TricMagic because he's very hard to read and I'm not sure what to think about him. Then you made that big post bringing up many things against MM and since I didn't have a strong reason to vote TricMagic, I decided to instead vote for him. I also believe his lynch would reveal more information and give town something to work with.

I don't think you're not convinced by his JOAT claim? I am since we already have another JOAT claim. We had two doctors, but one was town while the other was scum and this could be the same.

First, if there are actually multiple duplicated roles (2 Doctors, 2 JOATs, etc.) Then depending of his flip we could analize his interactions with other players like, for example, you. A Tric lynch would give me less information because I don't really understand him or what's he doing, but he has still been acting strangely and I didn't have anyone else to vote in that moment.

I "believe" would be a better word. I think they are our best options for a lynch today unless someone else comes up with evidence against another player.
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Immortality like that would be even more game breaking than four Aaron's in one place.
You're both so obviously scum that this is a surprisingly difficult decision.

juicebox

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Alright, since you guys are so eager for me to claim: I'm a vanilla Doctor. Last night I protected MM. And I guess I should mention that Vanilla Doctor wasn't my original role. I was a nurse until darkwarlock got killed N1.
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hector13

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Who are you going to target during N3 then?
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TricMagic

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More important, who did you target last night?
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hector13

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Nobody. I already said I took no action.
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randomgenericusername

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I think TricMagic was refering to juicebox. They were already a doctor during Night 2.
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The dog behind the man behind the beard.
Immortality like that would be even more game breaking than four Aaron's in one place.
You're both so obviously scum that this is a surprisingly difficult decision.

hector13

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He already said he protected MM, though.

We’ve got ~11 hours to deadline. No vote count so I don’t know where things stand.
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IcyTea31

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Unofficial votecount:
  • MM: Hector, RGU, IcyTea (3)
  • Juicebox: TM, Starver (2)
  • Not voting: Juicebox, MM (2)
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mightymushroom

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I hope I made it clear that, from where I sit, hector's big case post is nothing but putting words in my mouth.
"mightymushroom Decoded: the Authoritative Guide to What This Mastermind of Reverse Psychology Really Meant to Say"

He even goes so far as to mock me for things I didn't say when I voted Max, and for things some hypothetical future me has not said in the bit about my supposed telegraphing the nightkill.



http://www.bay12forums.com/smf/index.php?topic=170712.msg7812608#msg7812608
For reference to the questions.

1) Which is why I used the phrase, "I believe," to mark that this is an interpretation.

May I have your permission to trim the quote somewhat?
What you wrote was:
He throws shade on Tric, because Tric is Obfuscating, not Honest. Tric is frankly an easy target.
Since this is an item in the end summary of your case, I take it to mean you find something scummy about my pursuing the miller at least.  And I don't think it's such a foolish leap that I picked out the adjective "easy" as a key word. The re-casting that I made follows from that.

Out of order 3) The charge that I am maliciously trimming posts is about the same as the charge that I am maliciously misrepresenting my own reading of your words.
I "twist" your words because I am looking for clues, and because text communication occasionally fails. So I take whatever you say, translate into something that makes sense to me, and attempt to reflect it back through the screen. Then I study your reaction for clues as to how close I came to your original intent.

More following.

2) I'm glad my links "amuse" you; I had hoped players would remember the sequences and be able to follow the thread for themselves.

My timeline is this:
  • TricMagic comes out with the two kill hypothesis #386. Discussion follows, until Tric says he needs ~12 hours and he's going to bed.
  • TricMagic says it again #431. There is another, shorter discussion until #437, the post you say I misquoted. This is indeed where I believe you dropped the subject.

After another look, summarizing it as telling Tric to shut up is unnecessarily harsh, nevertheless –
which is actually me asking why Tric is so caught up on a delayed result - that he had been told by MM(!) would not be resolved until N2 - which appears to be stopping him engaging with the major event from D2, namely RGU's guilty result and MaxSpin's subsequent counter.
. . .
"Tric, stop focusing on something that won't be resolved until N2 and actually comment on the present game state mate"
– you are associating – understandably since Tric himself keeps using the delay as a reason not to say more – associating the double kill hypothesis with something to do about the delay and dismissing it as unknowable until the delay resolves.

This is how I believe you dropped the subject, and I take it up again by pointing out that I am seeking knowledge Tric might have that is separate from the delayed result.

Is a blocked kill, if true, not part of the game state?

4) Well, now I am enlightened.

5) My case for part b) has been given, and a) is my ascribing motive to that pattern.

I can see where you insist I underrated the interactions mentioned in part 4.
I don't follow that you not bringing up Moony again means I should forget it happened; you are certainly keen enough to list every post I make. And I really don't understand why I – make that either of us – should attempt to explain my motivation for what I was writing D2 by being prescient of your moves D3.

6) ??

Oh. Oooooh.

Is that what this is about?
Because this whole time I thought "ignoring my scumread" was in reference to TricMagic. Thus why I devoted the entire post you've been critiquing with these questions to my interaction with Tric and reasons for doing so.

I hope this distinction sounds other than insane because I'm not sure how else to frame it: Max Spin was not so much a scum read as a scum decision. Right away D2 I said that I had been trusting Max more than BHK/RGU on D1. I asked how other people were taking the news, whether they had information to validate or refute either party. After four days and little other substance forthcoming (inlcuding, I admit, hardly anything from myself), I reviewed what had happened and decided that Max's attitude warranted flipping more than RGU's or TM's, exactly as and when I posted.

The irony is that the one sentence I meant to be read dripping with sarcasm is practically the only thing from that day that you've chosen to read straight. I do not think that I meaningfully mischaracterized Max's position(s); and Max's reply to me is one more example of how little he offered the town to work with. He even tries to step away from the assertion that he's been framed, in spite of that earlier being his prized hypothesis.


I once chastised Starver after one of his lexical stream-of-consciousness posts, telling him that brevity is a watchword in Mafia.

I know this was meant to be self-referential, but I think you may need to give me the same lecture. My posting is in-the-moment material, asking questions when I see them being left unanswered and explaining my sense of the game board at the time of the post. I do try to compose them with some care and this is what I've seen referred to as my logical play style; but most of your assertions make sense to me only if you are wildly overestimating how grand a long-term scheme I am capable of constructing.
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hector13

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Out of order 3) The charge that I am maliciously trimming posts is about the same as the charge that I am maliciously misrepresenting my own reading of your words.
I "twist" your words because I am looking for clues, and because text communication occasionally fails. So I take whatever you say, translate into something that makes sense to me, and attempt to reflect it back through the screen. Then I study your reaction for clues as to how close I came to your original intent.

You could just, like, you know, ask questions to figure out the original intent, or something?

What does your study of my reaction reveal?

which is actually me asking why Tric is so caught up on a delayed result - that he had been told by MM(!) would not be resolved until N2 - which appears to be stopping him engaging with the major event from D2, namely RGU's guilty result and MaxSpin's subsequent counter.
. . .
"Tric, stop focusing on something that won't be resolved until N2 and actually comment on the present game state mate"
[1]– you are associating – understandably since Tric himself keeps using the delay as a reason not to say more – associating the double kill hypothesis with something to do about the delay and dismissing it as unknowable until the delay resolves.

This is how I believe you dropped the subject, and I take it up again by pointing out that I am seeking knowledge Tric might have that is separate from the delayed result.

[2]Is a blocked kill, if true, not part of the game state?

[1]: his thoughts re: double-kill-N1-but-one-was-blocked didn't enter into it. It is unknowable, unless someone reveals something about it. Thus, it is a pointless thing to focus on until someone reveals something about it.

Thus, what I was telling him was to not focus on his N1 result, that we know had been delayed, because it wouldn't become relevant until D3.

[2]: a blocked kill that is known, sure. Tric was quite obviously speculating, given his claim and his lack of inclination to discuss it.

As a counter-question: what does focusing on a speculated blocked kill do for your read of the game?

5) My case for part b) has been given, and a) is my ascribing motive to that pattern.

I can see where you insist I underrated the interactions mentioned in part 4.
I don't follow that you not bringing up Moony again means I should forget it happened; you are certainly keen enough to list every post I make. And I really don't understand why I – make that either of us – should attempt to explain my motivation for what I was writing D2 by being prescient of your moves D3.

What do you mean by the italicised part?

6) ??

Oh. Oooooh.

Is that what this is about?
Because this whole time I thought "ignoring my scumread" was in reference to TricMagic. Thus why I devoted the entire post you've been critiquing with these questions to my interaction with Tric and reasons for doing so.

This is what not asking questions does for you.

I hope this distinction sounds other than insane because I'm not sure how else to frame it: Max Spin was not so much a scum read as a scum decision. Right away D2 I said that I had been trusting Max more than BHK/RGU on D1. I asked how other people were taking the news, whether they had information to validate or refute either party. After four days and little other substance forthcoming (inlcuding, I admit, hardly anything from myself), I reviewed what had happened and decided that Max's attitude warranted flipping more than RGU's or TM's, exactly as and when I posted.

So what does that mean for your read on RGU, and Tric? I can see how you might clear RGU from that, but not Tric.

'cause you say that Tric was your scumread, and you were pushing that scumread for the entirety of D2, but you focus on IcyTea at the start of D3.

The irony is that the one sentence I meant to be read dripping with sarcasm is practically the only thing from that day that you've chosen to read straight. I do not think that I meaningfully mischaracterized Max's position(s); and Max's reply to me is one more example of how little he offered the town to work with. He even tries to step away from the assertion that he's been framed, in spite of that earlier being his prized hypothesis.

It's ironic that you consider it's my fault for misinterpretating your lack of communication skills :P



Important bit for people who aren't hector and MM

Now, we seem to have gotten sidetracked. I like how you've done it, but lets get going here.

A great deal of my case on you was around you attempting to get blueturtle to consider various scenarios in which MaxSpin came out clean. You did comment on it in your first wall, but you slipped that over to Tric in the second post, from which this particular course has taken us.

Now, I don't want to respond to all the ways you misrepresented me in that post (IREALLYREALLYDOACTUALLY) but boiling it down, in the final paragraph of that wall you say:
Quote
"... I was all along suggesting that Max Spin might be a doctor and it is everyone else who conflated that hypothesis with his being town..."

But MaxSpin was claiming that he was a town-aligned doctor, and doctors very much tend to be town-aligned (this is the first game I've played in a long time, maybe the first time, in which there's been a doctor on the scum team) so, from my perspective, you asking players to consider scenarios in which MaxSpin is actually a doctor is equivalent to you asking players to consider scenarios in which MaxSpin is actually town. A bother when he flips scum.

Further - I'm going to quote a bit from this post again, 'cause it's easier to illustrate my point:

I hope this distinction sounds other than insane because I'm not sure how else to frame it: Max Spin was not so much a scum read as a scum decision. Right away D2 I said that I had been trusting Max more than BHK/RGU on D1. I asked how other people were taking the news, whether they had information to validate or refute either party. After four days and little other substance forthcoming (inlcuding, I admit, hardly anything from myself), I reviewed what had happened and decided that Max's attitude warranted flipping more than RGU's or TM's, exactly as and when I posted.

Which doesn't gel with this post:

I am a JOAT.

Therefore identical archetypes are a real thing. Therefore Max Spin could be a second doctor.
Not of itself exculpatory as I've already brought up the possibility of scum doctors.

... in which you doubt MaxSpin's alignment despite the potential that he may be telling the truth regarding his role, which was made ~7 hours after your initial comments on RGU's guilty result.

and again, here an hour after that:

I think there are several flaws in Spin's proposed proof of career, though. Starting with trusting an outed mafioso how any of us not trying to kill RGU would know that someone had done so and the protection worked.

In which you throw a great deal of doubt on MaxSpin's claim, and all but call him out as scum.

So... how come it took you four days to parlay that apparently significant suspicion into a vote?

Why did you vote so late anyway? You knew he was getting lynched, it very much came across as a vote to make yourself look good in the eyes of the town. There's a word for it but it escapes me :( lookin' for the easy town-cred, basically.



I once chastised Starver after one of his lexical stream-of-consciousness posts, telling him that brevity is a watchword in Mafia.

I know this was meant to be self-referential, but I think you may need to give me the same lecture. My posting is in-the-moment material, asking questions when I see them being left unanswered and explaining my sense of the game board at the time of the post. I do try to compose them with some care and this is what I've seen referred to as my logical play style; but most of your assertions make sense to me only if you are wildly overestimating how grand a long-term scheme I am capable of constructing.

This bit might need to be in green, but eh.

This is why you ask questions instead of making assumptions :P or rather, in addition to making assumptions. It's a useful tool as town and scum, to be able to ask the right question. This is unfortunately something that only really comes with experience, as well as knowing what motivations town and scum have, and how to manipulate them for profit get to the bottom of them.
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IcyTea31

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I'm convinced. I've already got my vote on MM, so no change there. I have a contingency plan if he flips innocent, though.

(this is the first game I've played in a long time, maybe the first time, in which there's been a doctor on the scum team)
In MafiaKart Racing, the last game we were in, I was a mafioso with a doctor-like ability (in addition to others). This is beside the point, of course.
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