Fack it, I have things to do.
Case-building against MM:
Hi all. Checking in.
We have found one third-party, what do y’all think are the chances of there being more?
Pretty low until I saw this:
I am an Odd Night Cop. Maximum Spin is Mafia and "aligns with the Dark Cosmos", whatever that means. Probably just flavour.
Maybe flavor and maybe an indication of multiple scum alignments?
By itself anything that sounds like that is hardly diagnostic but when combined with TricMagic's sudden jump to two kills of which one was blocked it makes me wonder.
And once I'm wondering I notice that blueturtle's case analyses assume only one scum team: you left out possibilities in which two scum might be genuinely opposed and not working together. Unlikely, but still subtly incomplete as you yourself pointed toward as a sign of bias. Mind you, I think it's maybe a town bias so not all that bad for you.
Tries to theory-craft third-parties from a guilty result from a cop, based on flavour and Tric's odd conclusion-jumping that there were two kills on N1, one of which was blocked by darkwarlock who was killed.
Continues theory-crafting, now that there are two scum teams - which doesn't even matter to town, regardless of the distinct lack of "mostly vanilla"-ness the idea has - throwing shade on blueturtle as having "incomplete" theories, but that's okay 'cause MM totally thinks he was town. This is essentially him leaving a thread for someone else to tug on, allowing him to avoid being the one to start a bandwagon.
Speaking of bandwagons:
None of which speculation competes with an actual guilty result. So my more important question is why is RGU the only person voting Max Spin right now? I know I was certainly less suspicious of Max and more of BHK back when the role was in BHK's hands, but do one or more of you have a competing result to throw doubt on its validity? 
Says this, but it takes him
4 more days before he actually drops his vote on MaxSpin, at which point it didn't really matter because everyone who wasn't MaxSpin that was voting at that point was voting for MaxSpin.
@blueturtle: You seem quite sure that the only way Spin can back up his claim is with town-aligned doctor powers XOR by directing the mafiakill. Is there no other scenario where Spin has powers at least close enough to have a chance at simulating doctor? Mafia keeping hands-off wouldn't stop an SK, for instance.
He's asking the person who has speculated the most to consider a situation in which RGU dies during the night and MaxSpin (guilty!) remains town, which doesn't fit with him being worried about MaxSpin having a guilty result against him and nobody other than the cop that got that result is voting him.
@IcyTea
And what makes you think I'm hiding something?
Mostly gut feeling, nothing truly substantial. You're reading as town, but there's something off, that I can't quite describe, in how you're making your case.
There's a certain degree of reductionism in blueturtle's case(s): either Max is authentic town doctor or he's lying with pants on fire. While I agree that it feels unlikely for a "mafia" result to occur on another type of scum, turtle isn't fully considering how third parties might intersect with the main protagonists' claims and burdens of proof (especially Max's). I'm a bit put off intellectually, although my own gut still thinks it might be a case of town not caring about affiliation distinctions among scum.
Required reading for this part, I think.
Again throws some shade on blueturtle, because as-yet-unknown third-parties may be interfering with the result (and this is before MM drops his
role claim and
action claim which contains actions that could have interfered with the result, and the balance of role distribution in the game) and he's making his cases a bit too easy to digest, which turns him off from it.
Then he implies that town should care about the specific alignments of anti-town factions within the game, even though they all need to be ended before town can win.
@hector
I want people to comment on this, because we’re going to flip one of these two players at day end, so having direct comments that can be looked at by players is nice, . . . .
How about this? I believe RGU is correct that Max Spin is pulling out the emotional stops. But Spin's best line so far may be the point that "I'm willing to die to prove my point" is also an essentially emotional plea that this is important so we'd better listen or else. Strip that off and it is just one person's word against another's.
This... doesn't really make sense. Mafia at its core is one person's word against another's. MM here is focusing on an emotional argument that RGU made for a mechanical reason - his guilty result - as though that's the most important part of RGU's reason for voting MaxSpin.
Is it weird to say that at this point TricMagic's scoffing makes me more sympathetic to RGU? Tric says he doesn't want to talk about it and then goes on to quote his own apparent claim for part-time cop on top of being a miller and having guns for sale. It's an odd brand of Honesty there, Tric.
Rounding this post out, he continues to throw shade on someone who is not MaxSpin.
The following is the same post as the "required reading" link above:
Catching up...
Well, this is a pickle.
I am a JOAT.
Claims without actually claiming anything.
Therefore identical archetypes are a real thing. Therefore Max Spin could be a second doctor.
Not of itself exculpatory as I've already brought up the possibility of scum doctors.
Despite chastising blueturtle for his failure to consider absolutely every possible angle, MM fails to point out that the only reason in a vanilla game scum would have a doctor is because there are kills not controlled by the mafia in the game.
Is there a second framer too?
It still seems hard to believe, but a little less so than before.
I'd be very surprised to see anyone else claim my more unusual abilities. But I also have a couple that are totally normal.
Tric is openly claiming duplicate powers.
In order:
Defending MaxSpin without directly doing so, 'cause duplicate archetypes.
In my parlance: "mibbes aye, mibbes naw", a most non-committal answer.
"I have a preponderance of actions, some of which are uncommon, none of which I'm willing to reveal despite telling you all that I have actions in a power-heavy game."
"Despite me saying it's unlikely that other people have the same actions as me, someone else has claimed they have the same powers as another player, look at me imply how scummy that is".
Maximum Spin: I went without voting you for a long time because, as my arguments with blueturtle show, I was willing to entertain the possibility of your doctor claim a bit more readily than most other people today. But of all the theories and all the shade you throw out hoping they might "stick", the only one you yourself seem willing to commit to is the second framer, something for which you cite no evidence except by us seeing you framed on the flip.
"I tried man, nobody else was going for it so now I have to vote for you with an original reason because it's been too long since the guilty result was announced that I can cite that as my reason for voting you now. I'm not going to say you were trying to goad the town into not scumhunting because lol there's still a bit of time left in the day and I don't really want them to start doing that."
randomgenericusername: I'm not a fan of the "lynch us both and you'll see I'm right" ploy. But it's overall consistent with BHK's near-identical behavior and the claim is pursued with more . . . direction . . . compared to Max Spin. Except for the one post he votes you, he argues from an premise that you are town making a questionable move, something again for which he doesn't cite evidence but that he would know as fact if he's scum and if you're not. (Or would very much want other people to believe if you both are. Either way . . . .)
Misrepresents what RGU was doing, namely that he's willing to flip as a cop to prove he knows MaxSpin is scum. Quite frankly a reasonable thing to do as an outed cop because they're going to be murdered during the night anyway.
He appears to have been writing something else because "an premise" doesn't make sense, but ah well, despite coming down on RGU's side of the argument, doesn't actually tell us what alignment he thinks RGU is.
TricMagic: You are my strongest non-Max scum read. Interrupted a bit by claiming a Watcher ability on the guy who asks to be visited, which actually seems reasonable and I'm a bit sorry my action interrupted that report if you're Honest. But you still! haven't explained why you thought there would be two kills – such that I question whether you were watching or trying a kill yourself – nor does it explain your animus against Starver or how you think any such result vindicates or condemns Starver's alignment.
Hasn't actually acted on this, despite being the strongest non-Max scumread.
hector13: If I say that I think you're town I expect to be hit with "I'm very good at appearing town" again, no doubt encouraging me to refine my read. I'm working at it but some people give me more handles than others. I am more than a bit surprised that you seem willing to give TricMagic a pass based on Moony's vote. I was under the impression that mafia-ally aren't told who their partners are? My disturbance is enhanced after you told TM
Well then, BHK makes a point. You will die at some point, the earlier the better.
but found seemingly slight reasons to pass him over both days.
The "slight" reasons I passed over Tric being voting for someone who was obfuscating like their life depended on it on D1, and a guilty result on another player on D2.
blueturtle1134: You take care to include yourself as town OR scum in your analyses, a cute little rhetorical trick. But I believe I detect a town bias underlying your words and if I'm wrong then I'm willing to be misled at least for the remainder of today. If I don't post again before deadline then let me say have a good night.
This has super-hostile undertones to it, very passive-aggressive despite the conclusion that blueturtle is probably town. Is willing to accept the guilty result on another player and ignore blueturtle..?
Notably, blueturtle dies during the night.
I sense an argument based around "well I wouldn't telegraph my night action like that during the day, now, would I?" in MM's next post...
Starver: Do you ever intend to vote? Do you have any more insight on what TricMagic may or may not have been doing last night?
IcyTea31: What is your opinion regarding the possible extent of duplicate role archetypes?
Why are these important during the late stages of D2?
Alright I'm tired, but this is the gist of my suspicion, mostly because he doesn't directly interact with MaxSpin on D2 despite him being a major suspect for the entire day.
He tries to encourage
other people to come up with reasons to exonerate MaxSpin, and argues that he and RGU are both arguing from an emotional point of view, ignoring RGU's guilty result multiple times along the way.
He throws shade on blueturtle for simplifying his arguments and apparently failing to consider the more unlikely scenarios, but only ones that result in MaxSpin remaining town.
He throws shade on Tric, because Tric is Obfuscating, not Honest. Tric is frankly an easy target.
Throws shade on me by massively misrepresenting the "slight" reasons I had for ignoring Tric, despite me also saying I don't like policy lynches.
The only time he says anything negative about MaxSpin is when he votes for him, 4 days after saying it was weird no-one other than the cop that got a guilty result on him was voting for him.
He's a bad, bad man.
I've gone through my own logic, quite fully. I'm not opposed to you asking questions that I might not have asked (especially as you may be unable to rely on me being what I say, and my conclusions being sound) but after we get your questions answered I'd appreciate if you turn your hand to an analysis of...what I say.
I'm sure it'll be constructive. (And you're already used to how much I can tie myself up in knots. You can tell people what I mean. And, by people, that may include myself... 
)
The only thing I want from you is your action for N2.
In fact, let's have that from everyone.
Author
Topic: Mostly Vanilla Mafia: Gameover. The Smoke! It's In The Smoke! Was It Worth It? (Read 93488 times)