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[XXSockXX]

I live in Moscow, and we had about 300-400 people who protested against of what is going on. And no less than 20000 for what is going on.

I've seen that in German TV. Unfortunately the anti-war protests were dissolved by the police and people got arrested. The pro-war demonstrations are something to worry about. The interpretation of the events in Ukraine by the Russian media is not really helpful at all to de-escalation efforts.

So, howabout russia agrees to some talks after this brinksmanship, pulls out of crimea on conditions, and in a roundabout way winds up trying to stabilize Ukraine to get a more favorable government & view out of it?
The civil war thing wouldn't help unless they go to take over the joint.

First they would need to accept the current government or someone else to talk for Ukraine. I don't know what will come out of talks, but it's pretty much the only thing we can try right now. Political commentators here think Putin is afraid that the West has too much influence in Ukraine and did put the new government in place. To avoid that impression we need a stable government in Ukraine that can bridge the East-West divide. That's difficult to pull off and pressure from Russia doesn't help at all with that. Maybe that can be made clear to Putin. Another thing I've read about the latest Merkel-Putin phone call was that there might going to be a "fact finding mission", whatever that is, possibly an attempt to convince Putin to accept the revolution.

So, that guy demonstrated a label with his name and rank. But that's not the most funny part. He is found in a social network with further info about his unit

Stupid kid. At least, if he loses his backpack, someone can send it to him.  Because that's how war works, right?

[GrizzlyAdamz]

First they would need to accept the current government or someone else to talk for Ukraine. I don't know what will come out of talks, but it's pretty much the only thing we can try right now. Political commentators here think Putin is afraid that the West has too much influence in Ukraine and did put the new government in place. To avoid that impression we need a stable government in Ukraine that can bridge the East-West divide. That's difficult to pull off and pressure from Russia doesn't help at all with that. Maybe that can be made clear to Putin. Another thing I've read about the latest Merkel-Putin phone call was that there might going to be a "fact finding mission", whatever that is, possibly an attempt to convince Putin to accept the revolution.

Well, sounds like it's heading towards a clusterfuck.

--Even if they've got a peaceful resolution in mind, they won't have the time to pursue it thanks to partisans/guerrillas/terrorists, (depending on who you ask).

[teloft]

Will there be an independent Crimea as there was an independent Finland?

[XXSockXX]

--Even if they've got a peaceful resolution in mind, they won't have the time to pursue it thanks to partisans/guerrillas/terrorists, (depending on who you ask).

It's even worse, with Ukrainian military bases surrounded, one shot could change everything.

Not the same base, but that's roughly the situation, inside and outside:

Spoiler (click to show/hide)

(actually it might very well be the same base, I get confused with the English/German transcriptions of Ukrainian/Russian names)

[GrizzlyAdamz]

Which is something said guerrillas are probably aware of.

Otherwise, they've shown pretty good restraint on both sides so far.

[Knit tie]

Someone's getting sacked.

But he is a star now.  3500+ comments is not something an average guy gets

If the comments are anything to go by, ukrainians are as bloodthirsty and rabid as russians. Understandable, of course, their country is invaded, but still very sad. But then again russian-language internet is infamous for being extremely rabid and radicalist, so this is probably not the case with the general populace.

For a long while our peoples were brothers. Now they have all the chances of redefining themselves as Cain and Abel.

[GrizzlyAdamz]

Will there be an independent Crimea as there was an independent Finland?

Explain independent finland?

[Ukrainian Ranger]

_

[XXSockXX]

So me and my dad were talking about this yesterday and we both were thinking that the protesters have until the end of the Olympics before Russia really starts to get involved.

I just dug this up from earlier in the thread because, sadly, that turned out to be pretty good prediction.

[Chaoswizkid]

Remember it was EU diplomacy too that gave the protests some breathing space before Yanukovych could have started a massacre. US confrontational diplomacy didn't achieve anything.

Damnit, why do we even try?

Where did the EU go again? America wasn't even involved.

EU: "United States! United States! Quick, Russia is bullying Ukraine because the people there wanted to join us!"
US: "... But you guys HATE it when I get into stuff."
EU: "Yeah...  but... we don't like talking to Russia! He's scary!"
US: "... sigh..."

Relevant:

Spoiler (click to show/hide)

Continued:
US: "Okay, Russia, listen. We have no actual interest in anything going on other than we don't want you to rock the boat, we can't deploy troops there since everything in the UN is veto'd by you guys. So we're really just going to have to say that the price of you guys annexing Crimea would be bad. 'sall we got."
EU: "YAY! US IS DOING SOMETHING!"
Russia: "... that's a pretty bad idea though."
US: "Of course it's a bad idea! It's also a bad idea for you guys messing in Crimea! Come on!"
Russia: "Okay, well, we're going to retract our ambassador."
US: "... isn't that an overreaction?"
*small time later*
Everyone: "Good job US, your antagonistic "diplomacy" didn't do any good!"
US: "ATGSRJGHZSJDUNMSHDHGNSMDKHNTHG"

[XXSockXX]

-snip-

Well, it's more complicated than that.
If you don't talk to Russia, what else is there to do? G8 is one of the only ways to have official channels to talk with them, so boycotting that or excluding Russia doesn't help. Just yelling vague threats at them isn't how diplomacy and negatiation works, especially if you can't back it up with force, which nobody really can.

Also EU diplomacy has messed up too. The spark that started this was that EU trade agreement Yanukovych refused to sign. Maybe that whole thing wasn't such a great idea in the first place, geostrategically speaking, because it would have forced Ukraine to decide between Russia and the EU. The way it looks to me, the country needs close ties with both, or it gets torn apart. The EU underestimated that and then took a terribly long time to react to the protests.

[Mr. Strange]

Will there be an independent Crimea as there was an independent Finland?

Doubt it, situation's too different.

But the parallels are there, internal division between pro-Russian part of population and anti-Russian right-wing goverment and what not. But I don't see it coming out like in Finland, most independent Crimea could ever be is puppet state for Russia.

[GreatWyrmGold]

My point is more "The parallels to World War Two are concerning and I hope they're meaningless so could you please prove my fears wrong?"

Your fears are wrong because the West is not going to intervene militarily. Worst case scenario is Crimea becoming a part or a satellite of Russia and a civil war in Ukraine, possibly resulting in a break-up. Still I have my doubts how far Putin really wants to risk escalation, he needs Ukraine for his Eurasian Union project.

The West didn't intervene when Hitler invaded the Sudetenland, either. Not right away.
Oh wait, I'm getting Poland and the Sudetenland mixed up, aren't I?

If we keep the Sudetenland analogy, the problem is not a war now, but an emboldened Putin doing the some thing again, probably in the Baltic state.

Its simple, we kill the Putin!
Actually in all seriousness is there any prediction on what would happen if Putin was assassinated? I'm guessing Russia would be pissed the fuck off and shit would escalate even quicker.

World War I?]http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Archduke_Franz_Ferdinand_of_Austria]World War I?
Seriously, though...best-case scenario is the new leader being more levelheaded and ending the aggression. Worst-case scenario, the new guy makes Kim Jong Il look sane and starts a global ABC (atomic/biological/chemical) war. Thankfully, that's not terribly likely.

I have to say I find it highly amusing how all the russian troops in Ukraine are all wearing masks and just going around silently. Reminds me of some random hapless mooks waiting for an all-american sledgehammer-chinned action hero to show up and gun them down.

PR never was Mother "Zerg Rush" "Vodka-Drinking Bear" "Filthy Poor Commie" Russia's strong suit.

Will there be an independent Crimea as there was an independent Finland?

Wait, Finland isn't independent?

If the comments are anything to go by, ukrainians are as bloodthirsty and rabid as russians.

If there's one lesson a deep look into history can teach us, it's that the "good guys" and the "victims" are at heart not so different than the "bad guys" and the "aggressors".

[Knit tie]

If the comments are anything to go by, ukrainians are as bloodthirsty and rabid as russians.

If there's one lesson a deep look into history can teach us, it's that the "good guys" and the "victims" are at heart not so different than the "bad guys" and the "aggressors".

All men are brothers. And there is plenty of good and bad people on each side and in every organisation - all the ukrainians and russians I know personally, including one retired colonel, think that Putin is just going crazy and that war is the absolute worst case scenario. People on "VKontakte", meanwhile, are successfully upholding their reputation of mildly scitzophrenic, violently radical and extremely gullible idiots by crying for blood and murder and calling each other names.

[XXSockXX]

My point is more "The parallels to World War Two are concerning and I hope they're meaningless so could you please prove my fears wrong?"

Your fears are wrong because the West is not going to intervene militarily. Worst case scenario is Crimea becoming a part or a satellite of Russia and a civil war in Ukraine, possibly resulting in a break-up. Still I have my doubts how far Putin really wants to risk escalation, he needs Ukraine for his Eurasian Union project.

The West didn't intervene when Hitler invaded the Sudetenland, either. Not right away.
Oh wait, I'm getting Poland and the Sudetenland mixed up, aren't I?

Well, the main difference is that we have a completely different network of alliances today. Hitler probably wouldn't have invaded Poland if he had known he'd have to fight pretty much everybody as a consequence. Maybe he would have because he was a lunatic. Anyway the situations do not compare at all. NATO and Russia both have nukes, so they won't fight. Ukraine isn't in NATO, so that's bad for them. Whatever the outcome of this will be, it might be bad for Ukraine, but it won't be WW3.

People on "VKontakte", meanwhile, are successfully upholding their reputation of mildly scitzophrenic, violently radical and extremely gullible idiots by crying for blood and murder and calling each other names.

Which makes them pretty average internet users. Internet comments are the worst place to get an opinion on anything.