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[Tiruin]

Alright
First I want you to read this post.
Then I want you to ctrl + f 'Whole case'.
CLick it.

There's also a link on 'these notes', pertaining to his posts past my findings--the note on "Findings." as a link. It redirects to where we started.

Look for the thing of

Anyway--the spotlight. The 'Caz' parable:
Spoiler: spoilered because details. :I !!THIS IS CRUCIAL!! (click to show/hide)
Unless I am blind, and unless there is no kind of forum default setting for the time, and unless I am totally getting what happened before--that Caz thing--in the spoiler wrong, then please.

I fail to see how anyone missed the point of 'This is crucial' and ignore it in its entirety. More than half the playerbase posted...and nobody talked about it.

I like feeling ignored.
It bloody hurts.

[Tiruin]

Wait, minor edition.

makeinu: You say you noted my vote...and failed to notice the obvious missing semantics?

Hapah. As UI's replacement, you may have little say in this case, yet as the current holder of UI's alignment, I have to ask--what are your reads on everyone; what is your reads on those replacements' replacement?

This is entirely disconnected from anything--and nobody notes it.
"What is 'this', Tiruin is talking about" is the least I could see!

...If you're scum, then I don't even, makeinu. But you're missing...quite a lot despite the worksheet-thing you claim.

Also any alternative links? Google docs hates me.

[ToonyMan]

PFP

Well time to make you proud Makeinu.

Tiruin is most likely lying.  I'm a vigilante.  I didn't shoot either night.  I highly doubt we rolled three Ks and Scientist is counter-claiming her anyway.

Not only that, but Tiruin is being nice enough to claim all of her kills, and with last night's death only being Hapah I don't really see a problem with Tiruin hanging.

If we mislynch somehow then I won't shoot since it'll be game over, but I do have leg-work to shoot if Tiruin is scum, so if anybody has any ideas...

[ToonyMan]

I could shoot Scientist if Tiruin is town since that would mean Scientist is probably making stuff up.

[Tiruin]

Y'know, contradictions abound--but you ignore my queries to you ToonyMan.

Answer them.

I could shoot Scientist if Tiruin is town since that would mean Scientist is probably making stuff up.

Expound on this scenario 'if Tiruin is town then...'

PFP

Well time to make you proud Makeinu.

Tiruin is most likely lying.  I'm a vigilante.  I didn't shoot either night.  I highly doubt we rolled three Ks and Scientist is counter-claiming her anyway.

Not only that, but Tiruin is being nice enough to claim all of her kills, and with last night's death only being Hapah I don't really see a problem with Tiruin hanging.

If we mislynch somehow then I won't shoot since it'll be game over, but I do have leg-work to shoot if Tiruin is scum, so if anybody has any ideas...

Which means..what? Details Toony, details. You love giving half the pie in most posts since now.

[Tiruin]

EBWOP:
My wording isn't phrased right, however UNVOTE.

People, I implore those who didn't extend to extend this. There's a crisis right here and I am quite confused.

Toony: As an addendum to the above, I've noted one tiiiiny little thing.

I could shoot Scientist if Tiruin is town since that would mean Scientist is probably making stuff up.

"If Tiruin is town".

Answer me, how could you rationalize Tiruin as town, then lead onto scientist here?

[ToonyMan]

If you're town then you're telling the truth, ie Scientist is lying or misdirected.

Do you think I'm lying about being a vigilante?  Why did you unvote me?

[NativeForeigner]

Blah blah blah lots of words unvote.

I'm gonna have to catch up.

[Tiruin]

If you're town then you're telling the truth, ie Scientist is lying or misdirected.

Do you think I'm lying about being a vigilante?  Why did you unvote me?

Oh yes I think you're lying, but that also leads to the unvote.

But first of all: HOW AM I TOWN, IF YOU'RE THE VIGILANTE--counterclaim, much? >_> I mean, of all things I would've expected people to hit me with, I wouldn't have expected that kinda thinking.

Anyway, unvoted because LYLO (MYLO, if ever muchly possible but you could be the SK-and we don't want the SK lynched today: 1:4:2 setup.) Given the contrast, I believe there's a JOAT instead of a mafia bus'er. Anyway, looking back. The reads that seem clear-ish are scientist (timing) and Toony (...counter-Vig claim. But then that thing about being town, and you shooting someone else.)

I mean really, Toony. Either you're being RL-crazy and selectively forgetful, or you forget your own words that you, yourself have uttered earlier today. That, and you missed quite every other question put.

In other words: I LIKE BEING IGNORED PEOPLE.
Could you [ToonyMan] please answer my questions instead of doing that thing again. Could anyone be so kind as to address me, at least correctly. >_>

I'm tired of being ignored, and if any of you guys are scum, that's pretty...rude.

Like thoughts for a massclaim?

SBC, Elephant Parade: GET IN HERE YOU LURKERS.

PFP

[ToonyMan]

You can have more than one vigilante.  If you flip town (and vig), then that's exactly what happened.  I just don't believe that to be true right now.

I don't really feel like answering your questions because I have a severe lack of time to waste (school started) and you're probably mafia.  If you have any questions you want to ask me you can repeat them and if they're not too annoying to answer I'll do so, but there's no way in hell I'm going to read the last few pages word for word and digest every little detail, because really, the major points are what matter and if you really are scum (which I think is very likely) then this whole discussion of details is pointless.  If you somehow are another town vigilante, then great, I'll shoot Scientist tonight.

If somebody can claim a redirect on Scientist that would be useful, but if it was scum that did that they probably won't!

[Tiruin]

I don't really feel like answering your questions because I have a severe lack of time to waste (school started) and you're probably mafia.

...That's the same I think of you-but..we can have more than 1 vig?
..*reads*
...I should really stop thinking along the conventional play (non JK9-ish).

But your inclination to put many many possibilities in that post without giving the other person any kinds of questions to answer really irks me.

You aren't even scumhunting.

If you have any questions you want to ask me you can repeat them and if they're not too annoying to answer I'll do so, but there's no way in hell I'm going to read the last few pages word for word and digest every little detail, because really, the major points are what matter and if you really are scum (which I think is very likely) then this whole discussion of details is pointless.

I like being ignored, y'know. I even highlighted your name in bolded text for you to see. It pleases my heart, at least, that I get a snide response.
At least I know I'm talking to someone.
_{Also school started for me too and you don't see me having time problems. :I But that's me being mean and probably inconsiderate. Have fun, ok?}
But really. "I don't really feel like answering your questions because of time constraints." is the worst way you can say 'I'm busy and can't answer your questions.' Like, you're evading, pretty much.

If you somehow are another town vigilante, then great, I'll shoot Scientist tonight.

Busbusbusbusbus.

Or redirect blahblah. :I

ANYWAY, questions for Toony, with editions for clarity in brackets. While I don't like how you're being..snide, on that kinda work, I've to note all your posts prior--lacking activity for quite the days.

But still, I also do note that you put the idea of 'things being pointless without any thought beforehand'. Why do you do so.
Next, detail why your suspects were as you said them.
Thoughts about the SK-notes. Why or why not you belief he exists, and why you keep on putting the idea out.
I also want to know why your suspect list was quite short and shallow at day start--without any details backing it up. Like you're just touting it out again and again without giving anything behind them.
READ BELOW

And lastly, READ BACK. I will not do your dirty work for you given your...lack of scumhunting at all these last days. I mean, I've checked your posts and they mostly seem to be a hippety-hop of ideas and on the spot projections.

ToonyMan

Spoiler (click to show/hide)

So, if we lynch wrong today it's most likely going to be lylo.  I highly doubt there's an SK.  That means there's two scum left.

At day end I did not think Makeinu or Hapah were scum at all.  I still don't think Makeinu is mafia, definitely.

My picks for last two scum are Tiruin and +!!scientist!!+.  What say you?

Actually, there might be only one scum left.  I think we have enough people who have role flipped that we can start piecing together what sort of set-up we generated.

The roles we know exist:

Hider
Townie
Townie
Townie
Vengeful
Mafia Goon

There are also seven hidden roles.  I will keep my role hidden for now.

What we can deduce from this (using this page):

We rolled at least one H and one K.  Because the only mafia that flipped is a goon this gives us no information on the number of Ts. [Check how many vanillas there are.]

This means out of the seven letters rolled, one is an H and one is a K.  We could list the possibilities of what scum team we're up against, but the the ones with six Ts and seven Ts are now impossible.

This means that a two mafia scum team (six Ts) is impossible.  Which means there has to be at least two scum left and maybe an SK (which I doubt).

So I see continuous assumptions [meaning you..somehow contradicted yourself in multiple posts, highlighted in orange; bolded parts are what caught my eye]. What do you believe now, exactly? Shift from 2-1-2 in mafia count...[Aaaand the notes on 'why do you trust person x and y..]
I find it curious that you speculate more on these numbers without giving why/how your picks are formulated. [I mean, you did calculations! Why did you contradict yourself there?]

And now you search the rest.
I know that I can invest time here despite my hectic school schedule. Why can't you. :I

[Elephant Parade]

D2 Analysis
Well, the day started off with a nasty surprise: two dead townies. There are a number of possible explanations for that.

1)There's a SK.
2)Mafia hit the person the Hider was hiding behind.
3)Somebody did a vig kill.

Tiruin and TDS argued, which resulted in TDS acting quite oddly.

ToonyMan attempted a gambit against Pufferfish. This wouldn't be suspicious if not for the fact that Pufferfish was absent, and had been for a while. It may have been an attempt to appear useful while not actually doing anything.

Urist Imiknorris badgered people about votes and defended himself before asking for a replacement.

Tiruin seemed really upset. It could've been fear of being found out as mafia, but it could also have simple been TDS ignoring questions.

Superblackcat didn't do much. He did a vote without much of a reason, which is a minor scumtell.

Scientist voted Superblackcat for poor vote reasoning, and then told ToonyMan about Pufferfish's innocence. Seeing as ToonyMan didn't begin doing other things until after that, I'm increasingly suspicious of him.

Hapah didn't do much other than defend Toony and join the TheDarkStar lynch group. While the in-depth defense of Toony made me a bit suspicious, the vote of TDS honestly didn't. While it could have been bussing, TDS was acting extremely oddly at that point.

---

On an unrelated note, it's quite convenient that Pufferfish's inactivity prevents everyone from questioning the recipient of your N1 action, scientist. Quite convenient indeed. In fact, it's rather suspicious.

I've gone from sick to busy, unfortunately. I should be able to post every so often, but I'm not going to be doing much Mafia-playing over the weekend. Semester finals are coming up, and I want to study as much as absolutely possible. I'll try to do D1 analysis tomorrow.

ToonyMan: Why did you try to trick Pufferfish despite him being away? Why did you not do anything else until two people called you out?

[Tiruin]

So I lost a post and PFP. Probably would not be able to get back later on. Argh this connection.

In short: Linked and summarized reads of everyone, leading back to ToonyMan for lacking conviction, and quick dispositional changes. While the logical train is subtle, I see gaps between how posts connect (other than the first posts of the day, ignore that given that I expect you to ignore them.)

Toony: Excuse my poke at your activity, but I'm partly unhappy at the amount of substance you put at D3 start. Like, there was a total shift from how much content you did in D2. RL stuffs, yes, but the shift...still exists as a bad feeling on my part.
Standing queries:
Reference:
> Could you entertain me? Why are you so adamant about SK being here or not? I mean, you could be the SK yourself, and I'm pretty ok with that (given my shoddy shooting? Bluh.) given that the mutual target exists. 1:4:2//5:2 scenario, and going by conventional logic-it is a crucial stage in game right here despite the idea of multi-nightkilling roles.

> Note. How solid are your reads on people, that you didn't even shoot them? You propose a 'me/scientist' following, Riiiight here. and lack any reasons to why. Your majesty, I expected much better than that from you. Obtuseness isn't a regal attribute.

> What did you glean from my conversations in D1? You had intrigue on me during then (see: Reference, and this), and generally wanted to know what I was up to, and what my thoughts were. I like this attitude. However, I can't quite follow from all posts henceforth how it leads to me being your top scumtell.

> Can you detail your reads from D2, and now? Why your suspects are so, and what shifted them?

> Do note, if the above on why you suspect me (Hapah shift?), I'd like to know what you thought about UI back here. How did it change until now?
Related: Me and buddy-UI.

> ...Somewhat 'humor me' and serious-statement here, but Can you detail your thoughts on what happened during this post?

> Is RL treating you well?

My notes:
I doubt there's a bus driver (scum), leaving a JOAT in place from the 3 listed role formations earlier. Why? Either they are among those who are quiet (SBC, I'm looking at you), or they'd have claimed bus driver.

Edit: ...OK, this is embarassing. I confused 'commuter' as a town bus driver. >_> I blame flash mafia BM-link reference to that idea of being either town/scum. Leaving the note above for posterity anyway.

..Yeah. I don't know what to think. There may be a JOAT/Bus Driver, and the bus driver is the best case scenario I can see on why the shift occurred, or scientist is lying about the block.

Why I unvoted, in detail:
Remember the 1:4:2//5:2 setup? Still exists on my shoulders. That, and a nice backtrack reveals wonderful info. Note for posterity, and this doesn't seem compatible, as in they don't cancel out each other. That was a valid reason. Something funny on why a Vigilante would claim 'tracker' on someone else. While it could be argued that a ploy was forming, a tiny note whispered that Toony, in the scenario where he may be fakeclaiming Vig for anykinda reason, suggests the roleclaim as an honest possibility (despite that kind of context. Bad context.)

But the only next post stands at here,
 revealing something Toony added compared to how he thought of me earlier. Color me intrigued. If you're the SK, Toony, I won't be up for lynching you. Silly-lynching is stoopid and impractical at this point.

[Tiruin]

Next: Role beliefs. Me backing up my guess on the roles from data before. Look at the # of Ts for thoughts instead.

TTTHK confirmed. + MG = 6

KKK for this perfect scenario to occur; me and Toony are vigilantes.

Spoiler: 1st scenario; TTT (click to show/hide)

TTTHKKKP from claims; 9/13.

Elephant Parade
Tiruin [E] - Claimed Vig
Superblackcat [E]
+!!scientist!!+ - Claimed Jailkeeper
makeinu [E]
ToonyMan [E] - Claimed Vig
NativeForeigner

We have 4 people left.
Likely plausible, maybe. BUT. This setup has

TTT = Mafia Goon, Mafia Goon, Mafia JOAT, Serial Killer

Spoiler: 2nd Scenario; TTTT (click to show/hide)

TTTTHKKKP from claims; 10/13. Meaning there's a fakeclaim among those already claimed.
Same setup as the above, however this lacks a SK.

Elephant Parade
Tiruin [E] - Claimed Vig
Superblackcat [E]
+!!scientist!!+ - Claimed Jailkeeper
makeinu [E]
ToonyMan [E] - Claimed Vig
NativeForeigner

TTTT = Mafia Goon, Mafia Goon, Mafia JOAT (Roleblock, Ninja Kill, Strongman Kill)

...3rd scenario is a TTTTT. Which I doubt given the comparison above.

tl;dr: THOUGHTS ON MASSCLAIM, PEOPLE?! I just speculated a lot above. But both lead to the Mafia having a JOAT, and not a bus driver unlike what I thought before despite the calculations (didn't do these types of calculation).

However if anything's missing above, or miscalculated, then do say: Rushing to work here.

Elephant Parade: ^. I want to know your thoughts.

[Tiruin]

Toaster: Votecount?
Because as far as I see: ToonyMan/scientist/makeinu are voting for me; Elephant Parade is voting for ToonyMan.
And I'm voting for SBC. Lurk moar buddy.
And by 'lurk' I mean I see him active (not on forum..IRC stuffs >_>)

Will think about the notes later on.