Okay. I'm full of nachos, tabletop simulator got cancelled, and there's scum to find. Let's do this.
Also, I'm saying it now; the signal to noise ratio in D1 was not great. I find myself jumping at shadows because of convert paranoia and a lot of distractions happening.
Bad lynches for today:
Luckyowl, BK, and 4mask. I think the reasoning is spelled out enough at this point. Seriously, any of these three is an absolute trash tier lynch. I'd rather be lynched than see any of them lynched, because a Toaster lynch (from everyone else's perspective) could be reasoned out, and would at least narrow the converter pool. So what about the rest? As I said above, I lean against it being TricMagic or Juicebox. For right this minute, I'm going to go past them, except to say my suspicion of TricMagic has waned since D1. After even more reading, Juicebox didn't have to claim just yet. I think Cult Leader Juicebox would have been less likely to claim something that can be somewhat tested later. I lean a bit more away from Juicebox as the converter, but not necessarily that he's not scum. That leaves seven names on the converter list.
Webadict:
Very convinced throughout D1 that Jim and Toony are town. I'd love to see Web address that view of Has Always Been Town Jim/Toony, and not Potential Convert Jim/Toony, which
he addressed here. And sure, yeah, my Top Picks For Convert would be Jim/Toony/Web/Vector shooting from the hip; that's a fairly obvious list to make. But what about reassessing them as cult leader? Would like to see this from Web.
Web, what about TricMagic? Do you still think they're town? I still think you gave me too much grief for
holding a vote on him until he stopped ignoring
my question to him.
Vector:
Vector... honestly, Vector's moving pretty far up my Converter list. I feel like I see analysis that does necessarily lead into voted conclusions? I really wish I could link a couple posts and explain my feelings but I feel like they're just... there. Making side comments, posting the apparently-meta-now readlists, and then voting. Voting with a reason but not a case, maybe? I don't know; Vector's pinged my gut all game and that ping is getting louder.
ToonyMan:
Toony, after RVS,
voted Luckyowl and sat on it all day. He poked around, but never varied his vote, even during the cluster that was the end of D1. I actually find this fairly townlean, coming from Toony and his stated reasons on it. He's even back voting Lucky today, even though I say that's a terrible lynch.
Toony: Why do you think Lucky is not a terrible lynch?
Persus13 aka Secretdorf:
Secret's an odd case; he started out with a joke read list in lieu of participating, but I actually liked
this post as he went out; it felt genuine. Well, except for the "I think Tric is scum but I'm voting someone else" bit; that's poor.
Persus, meanwhile, has
one substantive post so far, which was D1. Persus is posting surface reactions, reacting to events instead of analyzing them. Free passes for being replaced have run out; we need actual content from Persus.
Jim Groovester:
What's your top three scum picks right now? You haven't posted any substantive thoughts D2. Aaannd Ninjad. That's actually good, because I really wanted to know if you kept your vote on Persus. It wasn't made with much reasoning that I saw D1, and it's back here again. This actually knocks Persus down my converter suspect list a fair bit, because you are my top choice for likely convert. If you're converted, it's probably not Persus. Thanks!
I would like you to restate your case on Persus, though, for clarity.
IcyTea31:
IcyTea was
all for lynching either Luckyowl or BluarianKnight, but then voted
juicebox. He
backs into Luckyowl again, noting "pushback from Vector and and Toony." He doesn't take this analysis anywhere. Why, IcyTea? What do you make of this now?
notquitethere:
Looking back, I think I was too harsh on NQT for his meta-analyses. It's moving into D2 and we're past the intro hump; he should have some data to work on now. I'm very interested in hearing what he has to say.
In conclusion? I'd say the likelyhood chart is something like this, starting at the top:
Vector
Jim Groovester
IcyTea31
webadict
Persus13
notquitethere
ToonyMan
I'd like to see someone above the gap hang, and I'd start with
Vector. Vector, do you think there was a conversion last night? If so, who did it? Who'd they pick?