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[webadict]

Do we want a repeat of Day 1, guys? Because now's your chance to ask those RVS questions you missed.

NQT and 4mask, I'm a bit worried you all are trying too much to outguess Meph here. I do agree that there are possibilities outside of full-blown Vampire Cult.

You're talking to two of the most mechanically and pattern-oriented mafia players on Bay12. Of course we're going to read through previous games and try and read into them. And honestly... we're probably right, all things considered. I'll eat my hat if there's a vampire cult or more than two starting third parties in this game.

Of course now that we've brought up these things Meph might screw with them in the future just to mess with us, but still.

Meph still believes in balance. If there's a 3-man team alive right now, we're basically all screwed. I'm like 90% sure someone was converted last Night, and the other 10% is me being generous. Which means I'm with NQT and 4maskwolf on this one.

[Vector]

@NQT: Something like the single-target analysis was what I was waiting for. Unvote.

Web: I'm guessing I'm a bad conversion target because I was heavily sussed yesterday?

[webadict]

@NQT: Something like the single-target analysis was what I was waiting for. Unvote.

Web: I'm guessing I'm a bad conversion target because I was heavily sussed yesterday?

Well, not exactly, but kinda. My thought process is that if someone wanted to convert a Towncore player, you would be on the list at the bottom, which could inevitably put you at the top, but... In a way to not overcomplicate my explanation, I think you being the most suspicious of the top four is too far down, but also not far enough down? You're not Town enough to be Towncore, and also, I figured if I wasn't converted, obviously you're not gonna be converted. I mean, I was third, and everyone knows third is the best.

Unless you did, in which case, well, I made a bad judgment call, but... eh? Just not feeling it so far. If you'd like, you could just tell me if you got converted, and I promise I'll believe you.

[ToonyMan]

You wound me Web.

I would be more surprised I wasn't converted except for the fact that, you know...there's Lucky the Priest around.

If Lucky wasn't converted (so either scum all along or somehow town) then maybe I'm too obvious a pick? I think me and Jim would have been the most obvious, which makes us a reason to avoid (unless Jim is actually scum). To that extent that makes me suspect you, Web, the most as a "smart" convert pick.

[Toaster]

I am present, and again I am town. I won't be saying much since I hate day 1 and would only make myself look scummy eventhough I am town. If anything I will be useful for townies during the night phase. If scum kills me then at least you'll see I'll flip and my night action will still go through either way.

Hey, Luckyowl.


You promised you'd be useful D2.  It's D2.  When is that coming?


(real post coming)

[webadict]

You wound me Web.

I would be more surprised I wasn't converted except for the fact that, you know...there's Lucky the Priest around.

If Lucky wasn't converted (so either scum all along or somehow town) then maybe I'm too obvious a pick? I think me and Jim would have been the most obvious, which makes us a reason to avoid (unless Jim is actually scum). To that extent that makes me suspect you, Web, the most as a "smart" convert pick.

I unfortunately cannot argue against that logic because I'm wont to agree with you, and it's also why I disagree that Vector is the optimal pick. I'm literally the right person to convert and I wasn't converted, and if you skip me and go to Vector, I feel it's just... I dunno. Like, you just never aim for fourth. If you're doing that, you leave all four Townreads unconverted and go for NQT and play the long con while baiting them into arguing with each other about which one's converted.

The only way you convert Vector is if one of the Towncore is already scum, and that's pushing into the WIFOM territory I just mentioned.

So, like I said, I'm shielding Vector because it's easier than thinking too hard about it.

If you'd like to argue you're too obvious of a pick, I also can't argue against that one either. Which is why we pretty much just need to soft reset our reads list. I'm worried that you didn't soft reset and pushed me higher, which is totally wrong. I mean, if you want to argue I was Town D1, fine, but D1's gone. We're in D2, and we need reads that reflect it. You're gonna have to judge me by Today's standards first and then you should use Yesterday's to reinforce it or show changes.

Regardless, Toaster is suspect for the attack on Blue D1.

I need sleep.

[ToonyMan]

If you'd like to argue you're too obvious of a pick, I also can't argue against that one either. Which is why we pretty much just need to soft reset our reads list. I'm worried that you didn't soft reset and pushed me higher, which is totally wrong. I mean, if you want to argue I was Town D1, fine, but D1's gone. We're in D2, and we need reads that reflect it. You're gonna have to judge me by Today's standards first and then you should use Yesterday's to reinforce it or show changes.

To be fair, my updated reads were written during Night 1. I'll be reevaluating through the course of Day 2.

Since Juicebox is replacing out I can't really get a response from them...you think they would at least tell us their Night 1 dream.

@TricMagic: Why did you claim Knight on Day 1? You realize that would only help scum?

@Blue: Don't kill anybody by targeting them twice in a row. Don't tell us who you're going to roleblock until after doing it, but we will want to know then. Why do you think Lucky is town? My suspicion is that you want to cover him, is this true?

@Luckyowl: Not only are you a pragmatic elimination target, but I think your play has been very anti-town. Now that you've done your sneaky Priest res what now? Why do you think scum would ignore a town priest if you're telling the truth? Who are you going to vote?

The Devil should probably claim if they exist...

[Vector]

So ... the converter's ideal D1 presumably involves pushing a subset of players into upper tier ("trusted") and a subset into lower tier ("trash tier," lynch targets). And they're going to want to play, themselves, to the middle of the road so they don't get blocked. They ALSO want partner #1 to have a list that plays well with theirs and ideally doesn't force them into an immediate bus maneuver. Bussing is really really bad when you don't have an NK.

This is in fact exactly what has happened. We have a seriously bimodal distribution in terms of who is being trusted and who is on the shitlist. So as I think has been said: I suppose we should expect someone from the middle tranche as the converter, and someone from the upper tranche as the convertee.

The ideal convertee would be someone who is a little bit unpredictable (but not too unpredictable), has a similar town and scum game, and is/was universally considered locktown. Someone with a lot of cred.

And if it was me, I'd be playing D1 with two people in mind.


I'm pretty sure Webadict wasn't converted, because he'd be making my life a living hell right now. Although considering himself the ideal target is more of the usual arrogance at best Why convert someone who's guaranteed to die come D3?

No ... if I had my pick, there could be only one person.

Jim Groovester, we've heard from Toony. How's life?

[Persus13]

NQT and 4mask, I'm a bit worried you all are trying too much to outguess Meph here. I do agree that there are possibilities outside of full-blown Vampire Cult.

You're talking to two of the most mechanically and pattern-oriented mafia players on Bay12. Of course we're going to read through previous games and try and read into them. And honestly... we're probably right, all things considered. I'll eat my hat if there's a vampire cult or more than two starting third parties in this game.

Of course now that we've brought up these things Meph might screw with them in the future just to mess with us, but still.

I've eaten my hat because web put 5 SKs and no scumteam in a game before. After that, I've been pretty cautious.

Did I say don't read into previous games? No, I said don't try and outguess Meph. Meph's told us that there aren't any new roles, so looking at old games is fine, I've been doing plenty of that too, but going "Meph wouldn't do this" is a good way of shooting yourself in the foot.

Persus13

Lucky has apparently decided that silence is the best option so I'll talk to you instead. I have been... less than impressed with your play thus far this game, and more specifically today. Mind giving me three people you're suspicious of, three people you think are town, and why?

Well
There's a big list of half the town who could be the converter and I'm trying to narrow it down. I'm suspicious of IcyTea and Toaster for passive play and being reactionary. Webadict made a comment D1 about Toaster throwing out questions to look active but without much follow up and that captured really well why I'm suspicious of both of them. I'm having trouble getting a good read on Vector, so I'll say they're my third, but Jim and Lucky/Blu could easily be here too.

NQT and webadict feel pretty solidly town, mainly based on my gut and their solid play. I don't really buy Toony's case on NQT, and think its largely based on null tells. I'm finding Tric super disruptive, and am not a big fan of his play, but I don't think he'd make three different claims as scum, so he'd be my third town pick. Otherwise, I'm not really getting the suspicions everyone's throwing at Juice, but he (or his replacement) needs to claim something tangible for me to solidly pick him as town.

webadict:
Is it time for a lurkerTracker post? I'm really missing the old one.

[ToonyMan]

I forgot to ask some questions earlier that 4mask reminded me of while reading, let's fix that.

@MOD:
Can third-party be converted?
Is every town role convertable? If not, which ones fail and what is the outcome?

[Mephansteras]

I forgot to ask some questions earlier that 4mask reminded me of while reading, let's fix that.

@MOD:
Can third-party be converted?
Is every town role convertable? If not, which ones fail and what is the outcome?

Some of them. It depends on the role and sometimes who's doing the converting.

Most are. Sorcerers are immune to night actions and Monster Hunters either die to a conversion or are immune (depending on who's doing the conversion).

[Jim Groovester]

I'd make a huge post but honestly there hasn't been a lot of high value discussion in Day 2 so far.

And for lack of anything better to go off of I'm going to coast off my Day 1 reads and say Persus13 is probably who we should lynch today.

Re: Resurrections

So basically since BluearianKnight claimed to be a Lone Vampire we know that Luckyowl's resurrection wasn't pious, and that Lone Vampire could be a fake claim for something nastier e.g. another member of the scum team or a Demon.

As a completely irrelevant side note if Luckyowl is actually town and telling the truth about refusing the Devil deal his resurrection should have been pious since he is, truly, pure and simple.

Re: Cults

The only thing we have to go off of to think there's a cult (either real cult or scum team with one shot convert) is the lack of a night kill, right? I'd say we'd need more information but we probably don't have the time to get it.

Right now the only thing we can trust is our Day 1 reads, for what they're worth. Haven't really seen much in the way of scumhunting during Day 2, but a lot of theorizing and nailbiting. I'd look into who feels different during Day 2 but that's difficult and there hasn't been a fantastically strong showing by anybody so far during Day 2.

Re: Devil

I doubt the Devil is convertible so I'm pretty ambivalent about them claiming or not since in theory they might soak up a conversion attempt. Having some kills or inspects in this game would be really handy to have right about now.



This is literally Day 1 again, except we're worse off.

Jim Groovester, we've heard from Toony. How's life?

This is actually even more of a literal repeat of Day 1 because not only did you vote me on Day 1 with the same wording I am also loading myself up with beers once again. Hmm, something's missing though....

I'll acknowledge that I'm a high value convert target like everybody else patting themselves on the back about it, but, no, I am still town.

And dammit, Vector, can I go to work? You're not paying me to be here. (If you wanted to start that's a conversation I wouldn't mind having.)

[Toaster]

Okay.  I'm full of nachos, tabletop simulator got cancelled, and there's scum to find.  Let's do this.

Also, I'm saying it now; the signal to noise ratio in D1 was not great.  I find myself jumping at shadows because of convert paranoia and a lot of distractions happening.


Bad lynches for today:

Luckyowl, BK, and 4mask.  I think the reasoning is spelled out enough at this point.  Seriously, any of these three is an absolute trash tier lynch.  I'd rather be lynched than see any of them lynched, because a Toaster lynch (from everyone else's perspective) could be reasoned out, and would at least narrow the converter pool.  So what about the rest?  As I said above, I lean against it being TricMagic or Juicebox.  For right this minute, I'm going to go past them, except to say my suspicion of TricMagic has waned since D1.  After even more reading, Juicebox didn't have to claim just yet.  I think Cult Leader Juicebox would have been less likely to claim something that can be somewhat tested later.  I lean a bit more away from Juicebox as the converter, but not necessarily that he's not scum.  That leaves seven names on the converter list.



Webadict:
Very convinced throughout D1 that Jim and Toony are town.  I'd love to see Web address that view of Has Always Been Town Jim/Toony, and not Potential Convert Jim/Toony, which he addressed here.  And sure, yeah, my Top Picks For Convert would be Jim/Toony/Web/Vector shooting from the hip; that's a fairly obvious list to make.  But what about reassessing them as cult leader?  Would like to see this from Web.

Web, what about TricMagic?  Do you still think they're town?  I still think you gave me too much grief for holding a vote on him until he stopped ignoring my question to him.



Vector:
Vector... honestly, Vector's moving pretty far up my Converter list.  I feel like I see analysis that does necessarily lead into voted conclusions?  I really wish I could link a couple posts and explain my feelings but I feel like they're just... there.  Making side comments, posting the apparently-meta-now readlists, and then voting.  Voting with a reason but not a case, maybe?  I don't know; Vector's pinged my gut all game and that ping is getting louder.


ToonyMan:
Toony, after RVS, voted Luckyowl and sat on it all day.  He poked around, but never varied his vote, even during the cluster that was the end of D1.  I actually find this fairly townlean, coming from Toony and his stated reasons on it.  He's even back voting Lucky today, even though I say that's a terrible lynch.

Toony:  Why do you think Lucky is not a terrible lynch?


Persus13 aka Secretdorf:
Secret's an odd case; he started out with a joke read list in lieu of participating, but I actually liked this post as he went out; it felt genuine.  Well, except for the "I think Tric is scum but I'm voting someone else" bit; that's poor. 

Persus, meanwhile, has one substantive post so far, which was D1.  Persus is posting surface reactions, reacting to events instead of analyzing them.  Free passes for being replaced have run out; we need actual content from Persus.


Jim Groovester:  What's your top three scum picks right now?  You haven't posted any substantive thoughts D2.  Aaannd Ninjad.  That's actually good, because I really wanted to know if you kept your vote on Persus.  It wasn't made with much reasoning that I saw D1, and it's back here again.  This actually knocks Persus down my converter suspect list a fair bit, because you are my top choice for likely convert.   If you're converted, it's probably not Persus.  Thanks!

I would like you to restate your case on Persus, though, for clarity.


IcyTea31:
IcyTea was all for lynching either Luckyowl or BluarianKnight, but then voted juicebox.  He backs into Luckyowl again, noting "pushback from Vector and and Toony."  He doesn't take this analysis anywhere.  Why, IcyTea?  What do you make of this now?



notquitethere:
Looking back, I think I was too harsh on NQT for his meta-analyses.  It's moving into D2 and we're past the intro hump; he should have some data to work on now.  I'm very interested in hearing what he has to say.





In conclusion?  I'd say the likelyhood chart is something like this, starting at the top:

Vector
Jim Groovester
IcyTea31

webadict
Persus13
notquitethere
ToonyMan

I'd like to see someone above the gap hang, and I'd start with Vector.  Vector, do you think there was a conversion last night?  If so, who did it?  Who'd they pick?

[Vector]

I'm not buggin' ya for "lurking," my dude. I know you have work. I just want to make sure you don't take the opportunity to lurky-lurk later on like in BYOR 15 cuz no one is paying attention to you.

Also, LOL. Would that I had enough spare dollarcents to pay people to play Mafia with me.

[Jim Groovester]

Jim Groovester:  What's your top three scum picks right now?  You haven't posted any substantive thoughts D2.  Aaannd Ninjad.  That's actually good, because I really wanted to know if you kept your vote on Persus.  It wasn't made with much reasoning that I saw D1, and it's back here again.  This actually knocks Persus down my converter suspect list a fair bit, because you are my top choice for likely convert.   If you're converted, it's probably not Persus.  Thanks!

I would like you to restate your case on Persus, though, for clarity.

Carryover from when Persus13 was Secretdorf. Secretdorf betrayed voting for his top suspect not once but twice. I'd link the posts but I am lazy and they shouldn't be too hard to find since Secretdorf made about five of them.

Persus13 hasn't done much to change my mind since he's tagged in.

Not exactly a fun spot to be in if you're Persus13 but I am here to win games and continue my GLORY DAYS streak and not to be fair to replacements.

I'm not buggin' ya for "lurking," my dude. I know you have work. I just want to make sure you don't take the opportunity to lurky-lurk later on like in BYOR 15 cuz no one is paying attention to you.

I'm not lurking!