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[Lenglon]

but now we finally get to the stuff that does actually matter. for these, I'm going to start actually putting some analysis of the posts in, to keep what is me clear, i'll put all my comments in mediumorchid text

Spoiler: Hapah on RVS (click to show/hide)

This is from the RVS phase of the game, and it DOES show Hapah as paying attention and having good grasp of theorycraft, and it contains a good push on TBF at the end as well. It doesn't show any hard cases or effort yet, but that's because it's from RVS phase and that's normal. nothing scummy here.

It's good to be back! First the questions, then the soapbox.

Everyone: What question would you least like to be asked in this RVS, and what would you answer to it?

Hapah: What's your favorite RVS question and what is your answer to it?

This is going to sound very odd, but the answer to these is the same: the "What's your favorite color/food/whatever". I'll expand on that a bit at the end.

Others: What's your previous mafia experience been like? What do you look for in other people's actions? Failing that, what made you want to give it a shot?

I actually got started in a Starcraft II custom game (which was basically just Mafia) and a Gary's mod thing (which was different but the general idea was the same) at about the same time. I liked both, I was already lurking on B12 because I liked DF, and so I ended up here!

@Everyone: Who would you inspect as a Cop and why?

I've been chewing on this for a while, and it's a little more complicated than you'd think. I would probably look at "strong" players later in the game (doubly so if the other strong folks have been murdered), and people that I'm kinda on my own in suspecting. If there are two suspects and one of them gets lynched, the other one will probably sort itself out the next day or catch a Vig bullet or something. But if I've got a scummy read on someone and nobody else does, I'd like to be able to confirm that one way or the other. A lot of it depends on what you know of the game setup, if anything, y'know?

Wubadub: What about you?

Hapah: What do you think of this situation between TBF and roo?

Right now I think roo is fine; I'm on the fence about TBF.

I'm not an IC, but I've been around a while, and I'm gonna give you lot a little unsolicited advise (it ties well into the favorite RVS question above). One of the single most important things you can ask in Mafia is "Why?" . And I don't mean directly just asking people why (though you sometimes have to, sometimes in more words and sometimes in less), but figuring out why people are asking the questions they are. Also, it can be very helpful to just pretend or assume that someone is going to ask you "Why?" after you ask a question or vote someone. Great example already:

(spoiler=Roo posts)I broke this spoiler to avoid having it break the one I'm putting this post into

Hapah super duper serious vote btw.

Don't do this, especially not the second bit. You get called on it and have to reply.

@ TBF
His post felt fake, trying to fit in. And deliberately talked to only me and you. Trying to be our budddies and ignored the actual game. His question doesn't lead anywhere and neither does his answer toward your first question.

-snip-

You want the "why" of your question or vote, the reasoning behind it, to be available if people put a little thought into it. The more you have to defend yourself on the fly the more chances for something to slip, or for your foot to find your way into your mouth. Best to be as clear the first time around as possible.
(/spoiler)

Regarding the RVS question above, it ties into the "why". I've never heard a good reason or explanation on how someone could divine something about my alignment based on whether I prefer baked or mashed potatoes. In my eyes, someone asking that type of question generally means one of three things:

1.) Lazy Townie. If there's no way they can care about your response, they had no reason to ask the question besides wanting to look active.
2.) Lazy Scum. When you already know who isn't scum, you are just kinda going through the motions if you want to take it easy (good scum may try to suss out roles or behavior patterns).
3.) Total newbie. They just don't know any better or how to scumhunt (though truth be told I barely know how to on Day 1 as well).

Happily, the response to 1 and 2 is the same: stick their neck in a noose until they convince you it doesn't belong there. Either you get a lazy townie engaged (win), or you lynch some scum (win), or you lynch a lazy townie (unfortunate, but I'd lynch lazy town over active town anyway). And for the newbies, well...you help them as best you can, but this is Mafia and you're gonna kill innocent folk sometimes.

TBF: I want you to explain where you were going with that question you asked roo, and I want you to explain why you just dropped the question instead of getting the answer you were looking for or pushing him on it. If there is some context that you think I might be missing, please link it. Because, as it stands:

(Spoiler=The irony is almost palpable)again, breaking spoiler to avoid it breaking mine

....
roo: Are you going to continue being incomprehensible?

@Gentlefish:
Look for past games with roo in them.

He basically just flings his vote at somebody and expects us to read his mind, from what I recall of his play.

PFW

What the heck.

That's not even where I was going with that question.

Then clear up where you were going.

@Hapah:  ':\
Nah.

(/spoiler)

Spoiler: Hapah on RVS p2 (click to show/hide)

Again, this is from early in the game, when it was pretty much entirely RVS. It doesn't have anything scummy in it, and it's perfectly reasonable for it to be all about RVS stuff because that's from when it's at.

Alright, let's get to it! Have to go AFK for a bit but I think this will do for now.

Hapah talks to tbf after tbf mentions him and is hostile towards me, but hapah himself does not pose an rvs question to anyone and instead chooses to talk to me about past games encouraging me to post about my past games and talk about nothing. He shifts his momentum with tbf while trying to encourage me to talk. I felt that he was trying to be buddies with someone. Like I said it was just a feeling. And like I said before

"Just say what you're thinking and lay it out there; more discussion helps town."

I don't think this is an unreasonable response, especially so early into D1. It's worth noting I was shooting off a quick question while still at work; I hardly had time to write a novel.

Hapah
It's Day2. A scum player was lynched D1. A single player claims cop D2. Are they the cop? When would it be acceptable to lynch them? Do you pay any attention to their reports?

I think you almost have to believe him at that point, in a semiclosed game like this. I mean, that would be a bold going on foolish scumclaim: I looked at the role possibilities and two out of the three have an actual cop, right? If you fakeclaim cop as scum D2 and the real cop claims, one of you is gonna get lynched day 2 no question. And good luck talking your way out of that when you claimed Cop and the real one flips. I guess a vanilla townie could claim Cop, but I don't see what they could gain out of it (and it seems like an anti-town move).

@Hapah: Wait, what?

I think there's something fishy, pardon the inadvertent pun, going on - roo was, as far as I can tell, referring to the question I asked you.  As you have not yet answered, I'd prefer to not explain the rationale behind it till I get an answer.

I don't think he is. I could read it as him questioning my very quick question (and I feel that's legitimate for people that don't know me, reinforced by =http://www.bay12forums.com/smf/index.php?topic=163788.msg7437049#msg7437049this upon further questioning), or he could be questioning you. He quoted us both, after all, and it really looks like that question is pointed at you and that stick up your ass.

After reading it a couple of times, though, I can see how you two were talking past each other. You thought that roo got a buddying vibe off you asking me about past games (which explains this, sorta?), when he was actually referring to my question about roo's past games/experiences. Breaking up quote-blocks when possible to only reference the bits you are interested in can help avoid this in the future.

Changing your vote around is a towntell, if anything.

I think that's a new viewpoint for me. I know you expanded on it a bit below this and I snipped it, but could you go a little farther? Throwing a vote around isn't exactly hard.

I... don't really have any questions.

You'd better find a couple, then. Without a couple decent questions you'll be on my (and I assume a few other people's) lynch shortlist. Granted, it was the weekend and I don't expect anything from anyone over the weekend, but at least one post a day with some content is the bare minimum I would aim for.

webadict

This is one weird-ass vote. Again, assume everyone is gonna ask why you're doing anything.

TBF: Man, it's literally been 3 or 4 years since I played. There's no way I'm gonna remember individual games at this point unless they were nuts, and even then I'm only gonna remember snippets.

I remember tunneling the everloving shit out of Shake in a King of the Mafia. I remember reasoning out that Tolyk (I think it was Tolyk) was scum in one game (a BYOR I think) when he changed his claim just a bit. I remember dinging Book with a fakeclaim in my first very game, and I remember lynching myself in a Beginner's Mafia game long ago (don't do that). I remember being a Snowman in a Cybrid Mafia game, and I vaguely remember some Mafia game that was about CCGs? I think people have Yu-Gi-Oh and Magic The Gathering and all that good stuff. But if you're asking me for specific details of how I played in games long past, I can't really help you.

Mm.  Alright then.

Well, since it's been 3 or 4 years since you've last played, I guess your meta would've changed anyway.

Now, where were you going with that question? And why would me knowing the reason behind the question change I responded?

Anyway, may I ask to everyone voting TheBiggerFish, could you please give a short summary of your reasoning?

My reasoning is laid out in the same post as the vote, here.

Doubloon-Seven: You're not new to the concept of Mafia.
Why are you doing even worse than me at it?

Tell me what you hope to gain from this?

...Heck, I asked roo why he was voting for webadict before you did...

You didn't actually.
You said 'why', alone, without meaningful context. You clearly either expect us (i.e. roo) to read your mind, or don't actually have the faintest interest in learning about roo's motivation in voting Webadict.

What context was needed? Roo's post where he voted wuba was, literally, just wuba's name in red. What else would he be asking why about? More words are not always better or needed.

Generally I try to get about 8 hours of sleep, and I had a thing last night.

I'm not gonna give you grief for not posting on the weekends, but...

Johiah

I didn't really plan on asking a load of questions cus I planned on analyzing you guys based on how you reacted to each other, but here goes
@everyone who seems the most likely to be mafia so far in your opinion?

Also still not really sure who to vote for but if I need to vote I guess vote TBF since he is getting lynched anyways, whether I vote or not.

That is both a shade lazy and more than a little dangerous. And I've already spelled out what I think about lazy players.

I really did not expect Mafia to be this involved.
Will think of questions.

Good, I look forward to it! Shoot for one decent post a day as a minimum, if possible. You don't have to write a novel like my post is turning out to be (though quote-blocks make it look bigger than it really is)

General Aside: roo, I really liked this post, though I had just a little trouble following it. Folks can call this buddying if they want, but I like to let new folks know when they've done things that I like and not just crap all over everyone for the things I don't, lol.

...Hapah, you seem to be activelurking just a bit.

I try not to mix Mafia and drinks if I can help it, though I might skim the game on the weekends don't expect posts like this one. You might get answers to quick one-off types of questions on weekends but not much beyond that.

Allow me to clarify: I am still in RVS because I'm still waiting for the initial response to several RVS questions I am actually interested in the replies to.

Can/will you go into detail once you have received responses?

Spoiler: Hapah on RVS p3, core of his cases (click to show/hide)

This post is important, because it contains the core of both of his cases on doll and on johiah.

PFW

@Hapah
May I ask why you are voting me?

Because you're inactive, more or less. Get some questions out there, some votes (with a reason), something! as you can see here, Hapah's vote on johiah is entirely a policy-lynch towards an inactive new player, who later on asks for a replacement. he never shifts his vote off johiah over this.

TBF

Doubloon-Seven: You're not new to the concept of Mafia.
Why are you doing even worse than me at it?

I asked you this once already, but looks like you missed it. Explain what you hope to gain from this. Or are you antagonizing folk for the sake of it?

Hapah
Sober enough to address my question?
Do you have any commentary you feel you should give on 4maskwolf or Webadict in this game so far?

Sorry, think I missed this, or at least I don't remember answering it. Nothing of note, really, though wuba is being a little....harder, harsher than I remember? And his posts a bit longer, but he is an IC. No real read on 4mask.

@Hapah: I was hoping to get an idea of your town meta and scum meta, but it's been four years and you don't remember details, so your meta has probably changed.  But if you were scum, you could have fed me bad intel, as was.

That's it? Really? That's such an obvious angle I thought there would have to be something more. Would you have actually gone and reviewed the games? Because while I don't remember individual games, my post history is there for all to see.

doll

Hapah
It's Day2. A scum player was lynched D1. A single player claims cop D2. Are they the cop? When would it be acceptable to lynch them? Do you pay any attention to their reports?

I think you almost have to believe him at that point, in a semiclosed game like this. I mean, that would be a bold going on foolish scumclaim: I looked at the role possibilities and two out of the three have an actual cop, right? If you fakeclaim cop as scum D2 and the real cop claims, one of you is gonna get lynched day 2 no question. And good luck talking your way out of that when you claimed Cop and the real one flips. I guess a vanilla townie could claim Cop, but I don't see what they could gain out of it (and it seems like an anti-town move).

Well lucky I'm not scum then because you'd have been fucked.
In games where scum are not blocked, they are statistically likely to be correct in assuming there is no cop (there is literally a better than 50% chance that either they find the cop or there was no cop).
Clearing a mafscum is auto-loss for the town.

Also, the cop will never flip in this game. Mafia 100% have a role-cop. That means that after N1, mafia can kill the player they inspected last night. If that lets mafia close out the victory, then that's what they'll do.

That said, it was a good answer, and it told me a lot.

I've been chewing on this all morning and can't come to the same conclusion no matter how I bend it. The bits the confuse me are bolded for emphasis, can you comment? It's a bit into the weeds but I am genuinely interested. and here we get into that math error that Hapah is talking about. notice that the reason doll talks about this further is because Hapah is asking him about it. it's not really something doll is dwelling on. As a result I don't agree with Hapah's assertion that this is doll having scum perspective on the mind.

Re "Moving your vote is a towntell" - Oh yeah, I vaguely remember NQT starting that up. Interesting that it's still holding up after all this time.

Spoiler: Hapah praises roo, questions doll (click to show/hide)

here Hapah has little of note until the end. the praise towards roo is genuine, but doesn't show anything about alignment.

Doll
This was a great deal longer than I thought it would be. Thank you, but don't feel like you have to write me a novel (though I do appreciate it!)

roo
(PPE: I almost deleted part of this but left it in, I'm just trying to reinforce good behavior in a BM, geez!)
This post is good! As for the big items in it:

Also idk if it is hapahs original thoughts fosing doll or looking for something to cast shade on doll. Independently I don't see how what hapah quoted could be suspicious.

There was one part of it that I found very suspicious and couldn't get to reconcile with the question asked. It might be nothing, or it might be a scumslip, depending on how you look at it.

I'm stuck at hapah play it doesn't feel town motivated...well neither do the ics of this game. Like hapah is unsure what to do but wants to do something it throws me back to what I talked about in his opening post.

I've never been a good D1 player; and I did join a Beginner's game after all this time to get back into the swing of things.

His compliment toward me feels odd

Perhaps it is, people have gotten a lot pricklier over the years (or maybe I've just got rose-colored glasses on). I did try to give you a little encouragement though, since TBF shitting all over you didn't sit right with me.

In the end it looks like this game is a repeat of every game I played so far: get indoctrinated into the bay12 playstyle or die, Lynch inactive player, scum kill active player.

I don't think D1 lynches on inactives are bad, given the alternative.

As it stands, Hapah tastes like Tiruin's scum - he continually defers posting until the morrow, as it were, and more or less just spends that time defending himself from whatever developments in the thread involve him and then delaying until further and further yet. The more he does this, the easier it is to put a huge amount of pressure on him when I call this habit in to bank.
That will happen Day 2. If I am not alive, roo and hector will do it for me.

Hey, I only put off posting once (I think). And I've always had a very poor D1 game. Why did you single out roo re: voting on Gentle? Why not cast a wider net? Why single me out instead of the other lurkers?

roo: I find it a little interesting you moved your vote, on someone else's request, so easily. Why is that? Was Doll that convincing? (PPE: looks like 4mask beat me to the punch on this one)

TBF
(Sorry if I missed some stuff, but the borked post was a little difficult to navigate)

-snip, back and forth line of questioning is about word choice of all things-
And from that I can probably derive something.

Like what? Give me an example, I don't see it.

doll

There isn't an alternative case to make or being made; every other vote train has been slippery because it was based on inactivity.

Fundamentally, the case against 4maskwolf hasn't changed. He hasn't done anything to find scum. Nothing at all. Not one thing.

In fundamental terms, 4maskwolf has the scummiest play I've ever seen. His game has been the platinum standard of active lurking. He hasn't even promised activity; he has given out literally nothing, not even the flame of hope of his being useful later. He has done his best to not exist without being noticed for it.

Reconcile these statements. While you've written a lot in your leadup to the vote on 4mask, in the end your case is basically just that he's inactive and therefore scummy. How is this particular case different? this here is a valid question, and shows Hapah doubting doll's case

I'm going to review TBF's P25 (scum) play so it's easier for me to flip-flop on him with my partner.

What did you mean by this? and a fair question to ask of a nose-tweak type statement. doll DID imply that he was on the scumteam with this, though it seems very much like a joke to me.

Votecount, please.

Spoiler: Hapah vs doll (click to show/hide)

(PPE: Are my posts difficult to follow? I often just copy-paste out the bits that I want to address in longer posts but that could make it hard to look at the context around the original. If it's a hassle I can try to work in the links to the originals, if nothing else.)

Your lurking is different to other players, because you're promising more but also saying that you can't provide at that time. 4maskwolf is active lurking. Gentlefish could stand to be more active. You seem to be trying to look more active than you are, but your engagement appears limited by external factors. However, because you promise activity (and either do or do not deliver on it) you set yourself up for more attention, so it's inevitable that you'll be called out on it.

I don't recall promising anything of the sort; I make my one real post a day and that's about it.

The reason to vote 4maskwolf is that he responded to pressure by making a non-case. That means that he has no interest in finding scum. He has an interest in staying alive, which is why he shot that bait-filled post at me (to force me to overextend myself and fall flat when I tried to lynch him) but doing this demonstrated that he is engaged with the game (since he responded to pressure without a vote) and that his engagement does not involve a desire to find out more (about scum). This means that he is scum, as opposed to merely inactive.

Why is there no response here Hapah? WHY QUOTE THIS AND SAY NOTHING?

I'm not entirely certain what you mean in [1] (this was linked in roo's post but I plugged it in here instead of managing a quote-a-mid) would you care to clarify. I'll answer preemptively from what was going on in my mind. Iirc the color blue means a person is suspicious. In 180 is what I was referring to. But more importantly your post is finished yet you've listed a possibility but no evaluation of it.

You're right about what the blue text means, and that's a fair enough point. I'll spell it out around the bottom of this post.

Also the compliment while I do appreciate it this is a game after all. So you understand my trepidation I hope.

That's fair enough too, lol. Yeah, makes sense.

What did you dislike my vote switch and why was doll case not convincing for you? It felt like you were asking me with an incredulous tone like that convinced you? Or am I wrong here?

@Hapah: Word choice, connotation and denotation, these things give insight into people's motivations.  I don't really have a good example off the top of my head...though I suppose I could point you at Angry Tiruin in FBYOR 2 for a good example of suspicious activity.

You made a point of picking that particular bone even when asked if that's what you were really after, and now you can't see what you yourself hoped to gain from it. How do you imagine it looks from the outside? Conflict for conflict's sake, activity for the sake of activity.

Hapah
As before: why did it strike you as odd that roo moved their vote?
Did you think that vote carried a lot of weight?
Do you feel the vote was for something valid, yet unresolved?
What is that, and why didn't you ask about it specifically?
What is that, and why is it present in your play to get you voted on?

-Because it strikes me as odd for individuals to make their case to specific players; normally people make their case and let the chips fall where they may IIRC. You've done this twice now; it could just be a playstyle that I'm not accustomed to
-I wasn't bothered by it and I understood why he voted me, though I know my alignment and he doesn't. It was a combination of him feeling like I was buddying him (I'm just a nice person, and would be nice enough even if I was scummy), and the fact that me and Wubadub talked in a similar fashion (I can't control what other people say and I'm not gonna try to alter my own speech around it; I'm me for better or worse)
-As above
-As above
-As above

roo: It basically comes down to the exchange below, which funnily enough came from an RVS question. For reference, he's the back-and-forth. I've bolded the bits that are interesting to me.

Hapah
It's Day2. A scum player was lynched D1. A single player claims cop D2. Are they the cop? When would it be acceptable to lynch them? Do you pay any attention to their reports?

I think you almost have to believe him at that point, in a semiclosed game like this. I mean, that would be a bold going on foolish scumclaim: I looked at the role possibilities and two out of the three have an actual cop, right? If you fakeclaim cop as scum D2 and the real cop claims, one of you is gonna get lynched day 2 no question. And good luck talking your way out of that when you claimed Cop and the real one flips. I guess a vanilla townie could claim Cop, but I don't see what they could gain out of it (and it seems like an anti-town move).

Well lucky I'm not scum then because you'd have been fucked.
In games where scum are not blocked, they are statistically likely to be correct in assuming there is no cop (there is literally a better than 50% chance that either they find the cop or there was no cop).
Clearing a mafscum is auto-loss for the town.

Also, the cop will never flip in this game. Mafia 100% have a role-cop. That means that after N1, mafia can kill the player they inspected last night. If that lets mafia close out the victory, then that's what they'll do.

That said, it was a good answer, and it told me a lot.

(Edit here to insert link to original post: here)
I've been chewing on this all morning and can't come to the same conclusion no matter how I bend it. The bits the confuse me are bolded for emphasis, can you comment? It's a bit into the weeds but I am genuinely interested.

Re "Moving your vote is a towntell" - Oh yeah, I vaguely remember NQT starting that up. Interesting that it's still holding up after all this time.

1) Ignoring the Jailkeeper, mafia have a 5/9 chance of either detecting the cop if he is here via kill or inspect (and so not claiming in such a way), or being in a game without a cop if a town player is lynched first thing. This is what I was referring to (I incorrectly thought this was 11/21 at that time).
2) Ignoring the Jailkeeper, a lone mafia rolecop has a 11/21 chance of either detecting the cop if he is here via kill or inspect (and so not claiming in such a way), or being in a game without a cop if the vanilla scum player is lynched first thing. This is substantially better than his likely chance of success in winning the game after a Day1 scumlynch.
3) Taking the Jailkeeper into account increases scum's chances in this regard (since they by definition can bail if he interferes so he can't have a negative influence on optimal scum play with regards to this early D2 fake-claim), so he adjusts the numbers in their favor (since detecting the Jailkeeper lowers the chance that there is a cop in the setup, as it were). I'm too lazy to run the numbers since he makes it complex and I'd need to do a lot of special cases but basically his being in the list isn't bad for scum with regards to this strategy.

Mafia who have inspected a player successfully can just kill that player, and so be sure that they are not outing the cop. By repeating this each night (killing the previous inspect result) mafia can know what will flip before they kill it. This will, however, reduce their total knowledge of players roles. If they need to do this in order to keep a fake cop alive, though, they will do it since getting a justifiable fake cop to lylo can easily close out the game for the scum.

The underlying logic of why moving your vote is a towntell is pretty obvious and solid, so it's not that surprising. It's nice to be able to point it out with such a documented history, though.

This exchange feels odd to me for the simple fact that folks don't generally make the firms sort of responses you see in the initial reply ("you'd be fucked if you did that", with supporting details) if they haven't done the odds themselves. However, the question (which doll asked themselves) explicitly states that a scum was lynched D1, but the responses do the math like there are two scum. The initial response after I FOS doll does the math like there are two scum again; my thinking is that Doll might have mucked up the math the first time because to them there are still two scum: doll and their scumbuddy. more discussion of the math thing here, all harping back to that RVS question

The other bit, for me at least, is that doll seems a little....arrogant is the word I'm going to use, though I don't know the right one? Already lining up lynches for the next day without evaluating the results of the first one, or the results of the night actions. It's not a lot to go on (hell, I'm not evening voting on it), but it's curious enough to me (and in my eyes we're lynching someone for less). That's all for now!

-snip AGAIN for character limit-

[Lenglon]

Spoiler: Hapah on doll (click to show/hide)

still focused on that math thing in the RVS question from game start

(PPE: Are my posts difficult to follow? I often just copy-paste out the bits that I want to address in longer posts but that could make it hard to look at the context around the original. If it's a hassle I can try to work in the links to the originals, if nothing else.)

I always just quote the posts I am replying to and then copy+paste the 'quote header' with the post details, as it were. It depends how you're working what works for you, I guess.
You posts aren't difficult to follow for me. The only time I miss having links is when I'm previewing my own post and I might want to look for a bit more of context for my own post to analyze, and that's about it.

Easy enough solution, little sad I didn't think of it. Thanks doll, if you're still reading the thread.

Re: short one-off posts: I think we're just of a different mind on these sorts of things; I'd call it a playstyle difference. I don't feel like I need to couch my opinion about the game length with real, meaty content, just as I don't expect any game content from people voting for an extend. For the latter, I'm just offering my two cents. He stated he wasn't really having a good time and this game wasn't going like he thought he would, and games are meant to be fun! I can't PM him about it, and no clue if he reads the banter thread, so how else would I convey it? I don't mind shooting a quick one-off response like that during my lunch break or between meetings or whatever.

Something missing here?
You've quoted the summary of the core of my case. Do you agree with it? If not, why not? If so, why aren't you voting 4maskwolf?

Yup, I missed it. I just think you're a lot more confident in your case than you've any real right to be, y'know? What happens if he flips town? Why are you already planning your D2 when you haven't seen the night or the lynch?

I mean, doing that is great and all if all you want is to brag in deadchat or after the thread that 'I totally picked scum I'm such a great player lol' but if you want to actually lynch someone you've got to move the town, and different players in different situations are moved by quite different things. I'm treating roo as nearly confirmed town, and roo seems to think of me quite well, so all I need to move their vote is a decent idea and for them not to be doing anything much with it. On the contrary, to move hector's vote all I needed was the strongest case available to the town - to move johiah's I might need to bully him tangential to the game, to move you I might need to engage with your thoughts as you present them and speak on those topics on which you remain unconvinced, to move TheBiggerFish I might even need to get the rest of the town to be saying certain things. Mafia is quantized, and the basic unit (the vote) is actually rather large. This kind of contemporary, quantum mafia is why 4maskwolf and webadict talk about me like I'm a kawaii Bobby Fischer, but it's really just applying the principles that everybody knows they are supposed to use - if they want to win. (you can see this, again, in Jim's Wild West Mafia, where he effectively controls the lynch the whole game through - by picking what players are able to vote by selecting [as scum] who will die each night and keeping around a group he can control).

This was a very well-thought out response. FoU: Why do you think roo hasn't pinged you for buddying, but he did ping me?

Arrogant works. Webadict called it confident. The simple fact is that I knew that nobody could push a lynch on me today, and they didn't - because it would cost the town too much to be wrong and nobody has any overwhelming reason to think that they would be right (see: Webadict's commentary on this).

And I would counter that arrogance and confidence are similar but certainly not the same. Wuba is confident, but he's not getting ahead of himself either, I'm sure he will evaluate what happens in the night. You've already made your plans for after the lynch and the night phase: how can you be so certain of your course when the results should be unknown to you? Do you think you will be well-served by having to backpedal the next day if you change your mind?

I honestly can't comment on whether or not my claim that I got the 'wrong' number (which was, as it stands, the right number - for the initial situation described and on which that post was commenting) was actually true because I can't remember if I had actually been thinking of the other case at that time. I do know that the thing which made me comment on my 'wrong maths' was that I had gotten conjugated the live scum and the dead townie as empty points and treated them as only one non-target during my working out - in the later post. This whole chain of reasoning is curious to me (as a useless, academic thing - the whole ordeal seems rather pointless for you to be going through), because your premise is based on my intentionally asking about something which I did the odds on as being a great opportunity to exploit - for me as scum. Asking about this raised awareness, particular among the key 4maskwolf/Webadict/Hapah demographic that I was relying upon to sure up my technical analysis throughout the thread (i.e. to catch me if I ever fuck up my math).

I don't understand how you can dismiss my math out of hand, while with the same breath say that you locked a game up tight with math. As is stands, you did the math wrong twice (unless a lone mafia rolecop gets both the kill and the inspect in the same night, someone correct me if I'm wrong), and there's no way in hell that a lone scum naked-claiming Cop on D2 has a chance in hell.

I don't understand the bolded bit, unless you're saying it would make sense as scum for you to use that to entrap someone. In which case, it's worth noting that you have already lined me out as your D2 lynch, yeah?

Leng: It looks like ya messed up the spoiler, but I believe I addressed all the bits that were supposed to be in it. Please let me know if there's something I haven't. (PPE: Oh you fixed it next post, why didn't I read ahead lol)

It's tomorrow, and I just read the entire thread in the past few hours, surely the one post isn't too much to ask of you.

God forbid I have something else to do during the workday.

Everybody: Choose two of these.
-What is the use of hypothetical RVS questions?
-Who is the most suspicious player currently? Why do you think that?
-If you were the cop, who would you investigate tonight?

-They can help you get a sense of where players you are unfamiliar with stand or an idea on how they approach the game.
-Doll(which I guess is now you?) for mannerisms and a mindset that is very unusual to me.

Hapah:
do you intend to ever respond to doll's last post directed to you?

Yes? Is there some reason I wouldn't? I was already tired when I saw down and saw that doll has to split into three posts, when the char. limit is 40k on one. I don't mind a little light reading before bed, but there's no way I was gonna be able to slog through that and form a response that night.

Spoiler: Hapah on replacements (click to show/hide)

Frankly, this post is small and only answers my questions, but I'll include it down here because it's part of my case

Hapah, do you mind telling me what your read was of our four replacing players before they replaced, and what your read is of them now?

This question is a little interesting; why would the read change just because the person behind the keyboard did? It might change what I expect going forward but it changes nothing in the now. As for all the folks there were/are up for replacement (are these the folks you were talking about?):

wuba (now you): preoccupied, mostly. He's a little harsher than I remember but I think that's more on my memory than anything else.
doll(now FoU): A scum read based on the post I had above. Possible that it was addressed in the big wall-o-text they posted, I started to fall asleep in my chair so just let it go last night. a scum read you aren't voting
johiah: Either new or uninterested player, little bit of a town lean. a town lean player that you're voting to lynch
4mask: A little bit of a town read if only because I've got a bit of a scum read on doll (who is leading that lynch train), and that'd be one hell of a bus on D1.

All I've time for at the moment.

Spoiler: Hapah on my case on him (click to show/hide)

PFW

Leng: Thanks for numbering your points

1.) Fair enough, especially with the disclaimer
2.) What is a defensive post? I get asked questions; I'm not gonna just ignore them.
3.) It's being cleared by extension. If I think doll is scum, and doll is/was trying (and succeeding, from the looks of it) to get 4mask lynched, how else should I read 4mask? There's no way it's a bus this early.
4.) Today's prime lynch target per you. I have my own opinion and my own vote, I'm not gonna follow the person leading the train when I think they're scum.

As for johiah, if you don't lynch him today, when will you? Do you want to carry him all the way to the end? He may as well have not posted the entire game, and I'm not gonna count on the scum giving us a small mercy and nightkilling him if he's town.

so by his perspective, 4mask's idleness should be a scumtell.

By your perspective maybe, by doll's certainly, but not by mine. See #3 above.

next of course we come to Hapah's accusations of doll in response to doll's case.

It was not due to doll's case, it was due to his responses to my questions.

Oh, and by the way, one of those future lynches doll claimed to be setting up, that Hapah railed against, was Hapah's own.

Do you really think I'm that scared of a lynch in a day that hasn't even around yet?

FoU: It was fairly early in, but I'm PFW and can't dig it up.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but the first active thing you did this game was counter doll's psuedo-attack on you. Scum tend to have a more passive play style.

I don't think doll has attacked me at all. Doll is thinking too far ahead and has the scum numbers on the brain (we have two, lynch one, role cop one kill one) when answering a question that bars that possibility.

You'll probably switch your vote to me after doing this and justify it in some manner, when in reality it's self defense, coincidentally tying the vote between me and origamiscienceguy.

There's no way I could secure a lynch on doll, and I hate 11th hour vote craziness. Though with all the votes moving around I don't know where it stands.

Votecount, please.

[Lenglon]

also, I hate my slow internet, because I think I may have fucked up on my attempt to last-second tiebreak if I'm wrong about the timezones. yay for it taking forever for my post button to process.

[Lenglon]

anyways, the core of what I'm trying to point out here is actually similar to the case against 4mask. I just plain don't see much any serious pushing on anyone. The prod of doll is okay, and Hapah is encouraging good play out of roo and johiah, but I don't see any hard pressure.

however, I will retract the accusation that Haph's case on doll is reactionary, because it clearly is not. it may be tunneling, but on that front pot meet kettle, because tunneling is exactly what I've been doing since I replaced in.

I still consider Haph scum, and want a Hapah lynch.
I still consider Haph's case on doll horrible in quality.
I still do not see any signifigant difference between the case against johiah and the case against 4mask, such as would make the case against 4mask scummy and the case against johiah valid.
I still view Haph's vote as hypocritical, considering the circumstances, and I see Hapah's actions as setting up to attempt to lynch doll at a future date.

[Lenglon]

I think there's still 30 mins left, leaving my vote on OSG to avoid any repeat mistakes though. I would be voting Hapah if it wouldn't cause a tie.

[hector13]

You were 8 seconds late to tiebreak if the deadline was 1pm, not really sure what the point would be in me reading things right now if there's only 45 minutes left if it's 2 pm, it takes me a lot longer than that to post things, and I haven't properly read through all the stuff since people got replaced...

I will say to OSG (oh hey you're back yourself man ) that he's voting TBF for what is essentially TBF's meta. He's... not the best player. I'm uncertain if this is intentional, because he does it as town and scum, and is consequently tough to read, but it is fair to say that his play benefits the scum a lot more than it does the town.

In terms of who to lynch, like I said before, it seems the 4 major cases we've had this day have been more or less the same, with a few personal views sprinkled in over why any particular case is more notable than any other.

I think there has been a lot of good stuff generated this day, the main issue being that in order for it all to begin making sense, someone has to flip. The main problem with that is that we've just had a third of the town replace in at the deadline so... that's not all that helpful for all that would happen after the flip to make sense.

Lenglon and doll were quite open regarding their intentions, tunneling and not having a particularly solid case (or one that could be applied to almost half the town) respectively, so... that counts in their favour. It probably shouldn't in Lenglon's case, but oh well.

I am wondering wtf FoU thought they would achieve by announcing a pressure vote on Hapah shortly before the deadline. Strikes me as very odd, particularly when his next post he says this:

[1]At any point was this post cut down and made shorter? [2] Did you have other questions or commentary? [3] Methinks you were writing up a different sort of post. Or am I wrong and I'm coocoo for cocoa puffs? [4] Also what a terrible thing you just did. Why are trying to get us into rvs again after all the effort I put into getting us out? [5] Do you have nothing to discuss? Nothing at all in the current thread interests you or piques your curiousity? You have over 10 pages worth of content and this is the first impression you choose? [6] You have fallen very greatly in my list of town reads.

First of all, a complement. Your play's gotten a lot better.

Now then.
[1]: Probably not.
[2]: At the time, no. Now, though...
[3]: Clearly coocoo for cocoa puffs.

[4]: Oh, that was more for myself. Also helped justify my vote on Hapah a little bit. I'm not trying to move the game back into RVS, I'm just sprinkling it with a little RVS sauce to make it taste better.
Pouring.

[5]: Refer to my previous post attacking Hapah.

[6]: Hm. Does that mean you think I'm scummy? I would think there would be a difference between ineffective town and passive scum.

Which... makes it seem the only reason he was voting Hapah was to look as though he was actually wanting to engage, but not actually engage enough for it to be notable (the vote made a 4-way tie at that point) or for it to influence the game in any way. I do share roo's disdain that FoU thought it was a good idea to ask RVS questions so late in the day with the content we have available.

Also that number 6. Awfully defensive, since roo merely said the town read was decayed, not that he fell into a scum read. Perhaps I need some clarification about this, but it's a bit late...

FoU

I'll risk this since Lenglon said they were around. We should have enough time to convince each other that their case is best, or to back off.

[Lenglon]

Hapah
I am NOT happy with a FoU lynch, 4mask and Hapah are both better than that IMO

[hector13]

Oh hell too many vote changes... I think that ties things up again..?

See I'm kind of unwilling to lynch Hapah, 'cause of all the players who had a "their inactive!" case against them, I think Hapah's was the least egregious.

[hector13]

Equally so, the person I think should be lynched is voting for them.

[hector13]

Smeg.

Johiah, least useful player right now, being replaced.

[Lenglon]

FoU was the lynch lead until you voted Johiah, i didn't tie it, i un-tied it.

[origamiscienceguy]

Oh, I must have misread the forum time.

Is the day over now?Or did I misread it again?

[TheDarkStar]

The deadline was 2pm, so hector13 got his vote in by 30 seconds. I'll get an official day-end post in shortly.

[TheDarkStar]

The day is finally over. You decide to vote on who the most suspicious person is. There isn't a clear majority, but there is a plurality.

"johiah, we're pretty sure you've been lying to us this entire time."
...no response.
"johiah, we think your country has been plotting against the rest of us."
...no response.
Then you realize that his chair is empty and that he left a long time ago. You shrug and leave. That night, a joint invasion of johiah's country shows that it's innocent. Unfortunately, it can't continue to participate in the negotiations you've been having because invading it caused significant internal turmoil.



Hapah(2): FallacyOfUrist, Lenglon
FallacyOfUrist(1): johiah
johiah(3): Hapah, Gentlefish, hector13
Gentlefish:
Doubloon-Seven hector13:
TheBiggerFish(1): origamiscienceguy
roo:
4maskwolf origamiscienceguy(2): TheBiggerFish, roo
webadict Lenglon:

Not voting:


johiah has been lynched! He was vanilla town.


Night 1 has begun. It will end in 24 hours at 2pm forum time Friday, May 12.

[TheBiggerFish]

Lock thread?