Almost, but not exactly. I'm saying that you're assigning too high a probability for A being better than B based on the (very sparse) data available, and that your language reflects that. I mean, there is the unknown conversion factor for both, no field data for either, and blifle isn't even lab tested very well yet. So how can you claim 'A better than B' instead of 'A has a slightly higher chance for being better than B'?
I believe that A is a better
choice, because A has a slightly higher chance of being a better
gun. Given no other information, a rational person wouldn't choose B, even though it's only slightly more likely to be inferior.
"But even if the chance is minuscule, there is still a difference, so still a small higher a priori chance that testament has better AP". Yes, I don't deny this, and have said as much previously. But say the weapons are almost equal in all respects other than AP (just an example), but blifle is a teensy bit better overall. But now, after considering the other points, the customer sees the phrase 'testament has better AP than blifle', and so decides to get a testament. That's false advertising, because you cannot yet claim 'A better than B' because that implies it's been proven beyond reasonable doubt, and it hasn't.
Did I ever outright say the testament has better AP ability than the blifle? I have been intending to mean that the testament is more liekly to have better AP ability.
Sorry if I said that. I didn't intend to be confusing.
Is probably part of the problem. Maybe it's just my background, but I find this to be an enormous difference you assign on very limited data. That's like throwing up a coin once, seeing it's head, and deciding 'this coin isn't balanced, heads has a definite advantage' as opposed to 'heads seems to have a very small advantage so far, but there's not enough data to make any real claim'.
I disagree
heavily with this. The correlation between coin flips is almost nil, at least in popular opinion. I'd think that the correlation between lab use and field use is a good bit better, even with PW being unreliable. If gun tests on Heph are basically irrelevant to what happens with guns on a mission, why do we even do any testing at all?
Honestly, if you believe this, why don't we just design twenty different weapons that are all different in their method of operation, but essentially identical in role and effectiveness? Since every weapon could be entirely different in actual ability, we just cull the ones that are less effective, and keep those which are thrice as effective.
Ah, but there will always be an error function. Say there's a 2% standard deviation. Then the difference you found might as well come from equipment fluctuations. So, based on that one test, you cannot truthfully claim one is better, it might as well be random chance. Now, say you repeated this experiment a thousand times, and there is still a difference, then you can make a valid claim about lethality of one vs the other. And if you only had the one test, and had to choose, you should choose the one with least lethality. But if then someone asks you to tell them about the pill's lethality difference, you can only say 'A has a slightly bigger chance to be the most lethal', and not 'A is the most lethal'. Because the second implies you have a mountain of evidence to support that.
Yes, I understand all of this. I agree 100%.
I'm still always gonna take B, given only that information. Because it
is a better choice.
It's not primarily about choice here.
<snip about wording for cancer chances>
The thing is, it
is about choice. We could make a choice between the blifle and testament. Given what information we had, the testament would be a better choice. Arguably, saying "better" might imply that it's a 80% chance to be the best, rather than 67% or 51%, but that's not what the word implies to me.
"But it's just a silly game." Sure, but we were talking a technical subject here, and it's an important enough concept I think it warranted the discussion.
This makes me happy. I was worried I was dragging you into an argument against your will. Apparently you want to be here just as much as I do.
Sure, but tell me, does this trust alter your behavior in any way (eg the amount of evidence I need to show before you'll believe/follow me on something)? If not, it's kinda meaningless to say you do or don't trust me, and if yes, we revert to the previous.
Trust
would alter my opinion. We don't revert to the previous, because I'm saying I don't trust that you never give false advice. I believe that you are falliable, just as much as any other human. Therefore, if you give advice which seems incorrect to me, I don't assume that I'm incorrect and that you aren't.
...Yes, one could make an argument that in some areas, you are more experienced, and therefore I'm more likely to be the incorrect one. When I know that that's the case, I will take advice that I disagree with. Although, generally, I prefer to talk until I understand, rather than blindly accepting it.
About this:
I stopped being manipulative awhile ago.
I'm honestly not sure. It wasn't something that I just *decided* on. I think it was pretty much due to pity, and a lack on interest; I felt sorry for PW having to deal with it, and it really isn't
difficult to trick him. That means it isn't fun to begin with, and since I empathize it becomes a negative thing.
That wasn't really what I meant. I meant a forcefield could protect the spaceship from ground-launched missiles (important if you count on the 'shoot all the things from space' doctrine). If you can have a laser point defense that's good enough, you don't need that, but if not then forcefields could still be useful.
I... okay, I still disagree. Kinetic armor on a spaceship is stupid, up until PW decides that it isn't. He has said before that kinetics are easier to dodge than resist, and that lasers are your primary worry. Putting kinetic armor on a spaceship make that ship slower, and easier to hit. It's pointless up until you add enough armor that you are outright immune to hits, but then you have very slow ships, which will probably be killed by something which the armor isn't immune to. Also, they're excessively expensive, as compared to a ship that just dodges.
Do these rules apply for forcefields? I would think so, but I like to pretend that PW is at all consistent. Go ask him, he'll probably change his mind.
Hell, they can help defend against particle cannons (or does hexsand eat that as well?).
I have no idea. Hexsand is magic, and what it eats is decided by PW. It doesn't seem to eat kinetic energy, which I think is the power of a particle beam, but it really just depends on whether PW qualifies a PB as an 'energy' weapon.
This is one of the places where you just don't think about it too hard.
Lasers move faster, but due to lack of tracking they miss, opposed to a kinetic shell, when firing at long range. The sub munitions are of secondary importance really, it's the tracking that allows hits on long range space engagements.
See, I just don't think this is true. At long range,
nothing hits. At 'medium', lasers hit. At 'close', kinetics hit too.
Did PW tell you otherwise? If so, okay then, I'm wrong.
Wait, what? Why would you say that, exactly? Lenses, mirrors, and big laser cannons. All those exist in real life! The idea doesn't even really need space magic to work (the QEC helps, but it can do without, though you'll loose control and precision), as opposed to a lot of other ideas floating around. A hammer shell, a big lump of metal, moves atsignificant fractions of c! And it's fired from the planet! I wouldn't be surprised if the front of the shell compresses the air molecules enough to cause fusion or something.
Yeah, yeah, I was derping there. 'Too fantastic' is pretty stupid in ER...
My reasons for saying I didn't think it would work, are that it would require excessive precision for basically everything. The laser needs to be aimed at an exact spot, as does the mirror, and the mirror probably requires a very exact shape.
However, all of that is pretty much trivial in ER, so I was just being stupid.
Thought: I'm pretty sure hexsand wouldn't be an ideal reflector. It has a habit of eating energy, which would reduce some of the laser's power. In fact, I don't think hexsand would reflect the laser
at all--it's the material we use for the undetectable voidships.
I proposed something before: place shields on long struts/pillars outside the ship to decrease damage to self in case of failure. Coat strut in hexsand to prevent it being shot off.
Back when we first developed forcefields, Nik (I think?) suggested we avoid the whole "Your entire layer of armor will be destroyed" thing, by using a system of overlapping fields, whose projecting materials were far enough away to remain undamaged. PW basically said no. Your idea is the same, just on a larger scale. It
might work, but it requires forcefields to scale up within particular limits. I doubt they can, so I'm not going to test it.
...Unless you want to pay me, I guess. I'd happily spend a few turns testing whatever you want, for a single token. It would be an easy way for you to work around your limitation of not tinkering and commanding at the same time, and if anything would make PW's job easier since I'm one of the worst multiturners. It would make everyone happier--you get to tinker, I get paid, and PW has an easier job.