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Author Topic: Re: Beginner's Mafia #51: Alien Invasion - Town Wins!  (Read 57383 times)

TheDarkStar

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Re: Beginner's Mafia #51: Alien Invasion - Day Ending Shortly
« Reply #210 on: November 25, 2014, 08:55:29 pm »

The day will be over in 10 minutes
Love you too bud.
Look at it this way: At least people stopped piling onto SBC before you replaced.
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it happened it happened it happen im so hyped to actually get attacked now

4maskwolf

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Re: Beginner's Mafia #51: Alien Invasion - Day Ending Shortly
« Reply #211 on: November 25, 2014, 08:57:35 pm »

The day will be over in 10 minutes
Love you too bud.
Look at it this way: At least people stopped piling onto SBC before you replaced.
*taps the my messages tab*

TheDarkStar

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Re: Beginner's Mafia #51: Alien Invasion - Comrade is a Comrade - Night 1
« Reply #212 on: November 25, 2014, 09:15:09 pm »

The day will be over in 10 minutes
Love you too bud.
Look at it this way: At least people stopped piling onto SBC before you replaced.
*taps the my messages tab*

...?

The day is now over.

The general agreement is that Comrade is not a comrade. After reporting this to Supervisor TheDarkStar, TheDarkstar calls to some guards and has Comrade dragged away.

Fifteen minutes later, Comrade's corpse is brought back, definitely a human. On his body, you find an ID that shows that he is part of the security department.


Comrade Shamrock has been lynched! He was the Jailkeeper!

You retire to your rooms, still under heavy guard. Nothing will go wrong tonight, right...?

Votes:

Scripten:
Deus Asmoth:
Dorsidwarf:
masked_krusader: Dorsidwarf,
Comrade Shamrock:Cheeetar, Scintillant, masked_krusader, Scripten
RangerCado:
Scintillant: RangerCado
Superblackcat 4maskwolf:
Cheeetar:

No Lynch:

Not voting: Superblackcat 4maskwolf, Deus Asmoth


Night 1 has begun! It will end in 48 hours, 2 AM Thursday, November 27. If I do not receive the night action(s) by this time, 24 hours will be added to account for Thanksgiving celebrations/vacations.
« Last Edit: November 25, 2014, 09:51:17 pm by TheDarkStar »
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it happened it happened it happen im so hyped to actually get attacked now

TheDarkStar

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Re: Beginner's Mafia #51: Alien Invasion - Night 1
« Reply #213 on: November 27, 2014, 02:24:30 pm »

RangerCado has been replaced by NotQuiteThere.

Day 1 begins in less than 1.5 hours
« Last Edit: November 27, 2014, 07:38:33 pm by TheDarkStar »
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it happened it happened it happen im so hyped to actually get attacked now

TheDarkStar

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Re: Beginner's Mafia #51: Alien Invasion - Night 1
« Reply #214 on: November 27, 2014, 09:04:00 pm »

You wake up and are led back to the discussion area. When you look around, you see that someone is missing. You discover that while 4maskwolf was sleeping, someone told the guards that the alien was in his room. Due to the standard protocol being to incinerate first and ask questions later, 4maskwolf had no chance. His charred remains and the record of edits to the system later showed that he was not an alien.

4maskwolf has died! He was a Vanilla Townie!

Votes:

Scripten:
Deus Asmoth:
Dorsidwarf:
masked_krusader:
RangerCado NotQuiteThere:
Scintillant:
Cheeetar:

No Lynch:

Not voting: Everyone.

Day 2 has begun and will end on Tuesday, 2AM UTC (a few days from now).
« Last Edit: November 27, 2014, 09:16:47 pm by TheDarkStar »
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Cheeetar

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Re: Beginner's Mafia #51: Alien Invasion - Night 1
« Reply #215 on: November 27, 2014, 09:28:40 pm »

As an IC, I'm going to preempt any excessive discussion of why the mafia would have killed who they killed- it's usually very hard to determine the reasoning behind a kill, and looking too far into it tends to muddy the discussion. It's unlikely to lead to a succesful lynch if you use it as major evidence towards proposing something. However, keep in mind the alignment of those lynched/night killed and what they've said previously: If a townie denounced somebody, or a scum endorsed somebody, this is good to look at in determining the alignments of the remaining living players.


Oh dear. Bad luck, 4maskwolf. I'm going to be looking sharply at those who voted for SBC (now 4maskwolf (now dead)) for poor reasons. Masked Krusader sticks out as having been particularly brief in his reasons for voting for both SBC and Comrade Shamrock. Dorsidwarf mentioned that his case seemed lifted from Scripten & Scintillant for his two votes, and I'm inclined to agree.


^This will be very useful to us, and I'm grateful to Comrade Shamrock for providing it for us. Of note is his strong suspicion of Scintillant for piggybacking (similar to the complaint I have against Masked Krusader), and mild suspicions of Krusader and Asmoth.
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Cheeetar

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Re: Beginner's Mafia #51: Alien Invasion - Night 1
« Reply #216 on: November 27, 2014, 09:31:30 pm »

Also: Hi NQT!
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notquitethere

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Re: Beginner's Mafia #51: Alien Invasion [9/9] - Day 1
« Reply #217 on: November 27, 2014, 09:44:11 pm »

Analysis



Town got mislynched D1. That isn't unusual. Let's look back on the last five BMs:

BM L: TheDarkStar and Eyjafjallajökull were scum, TDS was on the D1 mislynch, Eyjafjallajökull was not voting.
BM XLIX: Comrade Shamrock and Worldmaster27 were scum, Comrade Shamrock was on the D1 mislynch, Worldmaster was not voting.
BM XLVIII: Illgeo and yobbo were scum. Yobbo was on the D1 mislynch. Illgeo was voting someone else.
BM XLVII: Tiruin and LARD were scum. LARD was on the D1 mislynch, Tiruin was not voting.
BM XLVI: MastahCheese and MyOwnWorstEnemy were scum. No one was lynched on D1(!), but MastahCheese and MOWE were on different targets. D2 mislynch, Mastahcheese voted for someone who didn't end up getting lynched (but might have done if there weren't a last minute swing to Pufferfish) and MOWE didn't vote at all.

Do you see the patterns here? That's right: for whatever reason, scum almost never persue the same target as one another; there's almost always a scum player on the D1 mislynch; often a scum player won't vote at all.

What does that mean for us? Well, it's likely that one of Cheeetar, Scintillant, masked_krusader or Scripten are scum; and its most likely that their buddy is Deus Asmoth, with Dorsidwarf a strong second contender. (4maskwolf only just got in here is dead)

Deus Asmoth, looking back it seems you were fairly active; why weren't you voting for someone at the end of Day 1?

Who had the weakest case against Comrade Shamrock?

Was it Cheetah?

I do admit I did push you on an RVS but so did Scintillant. The exact same question in fact. I was not actually even trying to push a case on you at all. I know full well I don't have anything even remotely substantial. I'm just got a bad feel from your responses. It isn't very easy to put into words either. I was asked by Scintillant on who I thought was the scummiest.

This rubs me the complete wrong way. "I did a wrong thing, but so did this other person!" And then you say you weren't trying to push a case on somebody, as if this absolves your mistake. If you have a bad feeling from the way somebody is posting, you ought to be pushing and questioning them.

It seems as if you're playing in a very meek fashion, Comrade- not the way I'd advise mafia to be played, and one which seems to indicate to me a desire to not be noticed too much. It's a scummy way of playing, and I'm going to keep my vote on you.

Cheetah offers a reason to lynch Shamrock. It's not a very good reason (playing meekly is not a very strong scum sign in a game full of new players), but it is definitely a reason.

Was it Scintillant?

I'm assuming that you mean what I'd do (feel free to correct me if you meant something else). Now that I've thought a bit more on the matter and am not deathly tired, I think whichever way the SBC lynch goes, my suspicion would fall on Comrade. He was the last one on the SBC wagon, and he got on it with the same argument as Krusader used before him here
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
namely that SBC was lurking. Also, here
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
he seems to be defending SBC by saying that it's hard to call a case on him for town or mafia due to his inactivity. He then proceeds to push suspicion onto you, which you then debunk. Afterwards, he responds with this.
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
This seems very excusey and scummy to me. He's basically insulting himself to show that he's bad and thus should be allowed to get away with his poor argument. In addition, he fails to address any of the counterpoints he presents. All of this put together makes Comrade my prime scum suspect, as a scum partner with SBC, both right now and after an SBC lynch.

Scintillant offers a number of reasons to vote Shamrock and backs them up in reference to actual posts. This case is formed in reaction to Scripten's questioning, and the vote on Shamrock is buried in the response rather than directed at their target. A great way to to get inexperienced players mislynched is to not directly question them when you're trying to lynch them.

Was it masked_krusader?

Of the two instances you quoted, the first weren't even answers, they were attacks based on pure speculation.  WIFOM.  The second wasn't an answer, either, it was me going off on a WIFOM-y tangent.  I never dismissed answers, Comrade, I defended myself from a baseless accusation, and started rambling.  I don't think either one is very scummy.  You seem to be pushing a weak case, though.
And with this in mind, screw it, unvote.  SBC seems likely to be replaced, so my vote staying on him would accomplish nothing.

Comrade is a scummy scum scummer.
Their initial case on Shamrock is formed from a reasonable counter-response. Their second vote though feels a bit bandwagony. It is good to vote at the end of Day 1, it is better to reaffirm your case.

Was it Scripten?

I don't have much time today so I'm going to put my vote where it makes the most sense. (Also to avoid a end-of-day tie out of the blue.)

Unvote SBC
Vote Comrade Shamrock
'Avoiding a tie' when someone has two votes more than the next person is a complete non-reason to vote. They may have been pressed for time, but Scripten doesn't offer any reason they'd think Shamrock was scum.



Now time to double down on the above suspicions. The only good thing about interminable D1s is that they offer us false-lynches. These are almost as informative as the genuine thing. If we look at who would have been lynched if the day wasn't extended:

Scripten:
Deus Asmoth:
Execute/Dumbo.exe: Scintillant
masked_krusader:
Comrade Shamrock: Persus13
RangerCado:
Scintillant: RangerCado
Superblackcat: Scripten, masked_krusader, Deus Asmoth, Comrade Shamrock
Persus13:

Not voting:  Execute/Dumbo.exe, Superblackcat

Now SBC/Wolf flipped town, we know now that this would have been a mislynch. Following the trends, it's most likely that there was one scum on SBC's lynch and one scum off of it (quite possibly not voting).

Who had the weakest case on SBC?

Was it Scripten?

Scint: What thought process would you have if you were the JKer?

Hm.

Unvote Execute/Dumbo.exe
Vote Superblackcat


What sort of alignment-indicative information were you hoping to glean from an answer to that question?
Everyone: Superblackcat is probably scum. Note the difference between his play and Persus13's. Can everyone give me as in-depth a list as they can hack as to what SBC has contributed to the game?

Scum typically don't like to change their cases. Scripten keeps a page 3 vote on SBC and defends it later based on SBC's inactivity. Inactivity is terrible for games, but going after the most inactive player is the easiest scum tactic there is. Low-hanging fruit and all that.

Was it masked_krusader?

Well, in that case, unvote.

I shall place my vote on SBC, if he doesn't post anytime soon.

This is just a weak pressure/placeholder vote made when someone else pressed krusader. I'm not impressed.

Was it Deus Asmoth?

Extend, SBC. Execute is lurking too and seems more suspicious to me, but a scummy IC is more dangerous and Execute has at least made one vote.

Deus Asmoth is the third player on the 'SBC is lurking' wagon. Getting rid of lurkers D1 is an OK policy; but a much better policy is letting them be replaced out with active players. Was there really no better suspect at the time?

Initial Conclusions: Deus Asmoth wagonned on the SBC mislynch and didn't vote at all when Shamrock was mislynched. Masked Krusader was on both mislynches with somewhat suspect cases; Scripten was on both mislynches with even more suspect cases. Cheetah and Scintillant didn't have amazing cases against Shamrock but they had cases. Dorsidwarf stayed off both mislynches. I'd be interested to see who they think is scum now we've had some flips.

Also: Hi NQT!
Hey!
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4maskwolf

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Re: Beginner's Mafia #51: Alien Invasion - Night 1
« Reply #218 on: November 27, 2014, 10:30:33 pm »

Bah.

Bah.

Something told me I would die last night.

Scripten

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Re: Beginner's Mafia #51: Alien Invasion [9/9] - Day 1
« Reply #219 on: November 28, 2014, 02:03:24 am »

Do you see the patterns here? That's right: for whatever reason, scum almost never persue the same target as one another; there's almost always a scum player on the D1 mislynch; often a scum player won't vote at all.

What does that mean for us? Well, it's likely that one of Cheeetar, Scintillant, masked_krusader or Scripten are scum; and its most likely that their buddy is Deus Asmoth, with Dorsidwarf a strong second contender. (4maskwolf only just got in here is dead)

While I agree with your analysis here, keep in mind that the non-voters in two of those games were not voting precisely because they were active lurking.

Scintillant offers a number of reasons to vote Shamrock and backs them up in reference to actual posts. This case is formed in reaction to Scripten's questioning, and the vote on Shamrock is buried in the response rather than directed at their target. A great way to to get inexperienced players mislynched is to not directly question them when you're trying to lynch them.

You seem to be discounting the fact that Scintillant is also a new player. This push seems to be passive aggressive and I'm not sure how fond I am of it.

Was it Scripten?

I don't have much time today so I'm going to put my vote where it makes the most sense. (Also to avoid a end-of-day tie out of the blue.)

Unvote SBC
Vote Comrade Shamrock
'Avoiding a tie' when someone has two votes more than the next person is a complete non-reason to vote. They may have been pressed for time, but Scripten doesn't offer any reason they'd think Shamrock was scum.

You are forgetting that there are two scum players and this is a newbie game. This close to the end of the day, they could tie up the vote before deadline without much recourse from town if the distance between wagons is two or less. With this being a newbie game, they could easily get away with this and not even end up questioned about it. Shamrock had spent most of the day pushing misreps against various players, which comes across as scummy. Unfortunately, I've only ever seen his scum game, which seemed similar, so I considered him a safe D1 lynch. Sadly, he did not claim his PR before being lynched, though SBC's playstyle would have gotten him lynched, most likely.

Scint: What thought process would you have if you were the JKer?

Hm.

Unvote Execute/Dumbo.exe
Vote Superblackcat


What sort of alignment-indicative information were you hoping to glean from an answer to that question?
Everyone: Superblackcat is probably scum. Note the difference between his play and Persus13's. Can everyone give me as in-depth a list as they can hack as to what SBC has contributed to the game?

Scum typically don't like to change their cases. Scripten keeps a page 3 vote on SBC and defends it later based on SBC's inactivity. Inactivity is terrible for games, but going after the most inactive player is the easiest scum tactic there is. Low-hanging fruit and all that.

You seem to be missing that SBC had been all but rolefishing here. Did you read the response I got from my question that you quoted?

Inactivity does kill games. Scum don't just lurk, though. They lurk while pretending to contribute to the game state. Hence the case I made. Obviously I was wrong, but if you're going to try to poke holes in my case, then please at least aim for the case I made and not a vastly simplified strawman of it.
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Dorsidwarf

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Re: Beginner's Mafia #51: Alien Invasion - Night 1
« Reply #220 on: November 28, 2014, 02:14:55 am »

Hey NQT. Good to have a quick replacement. Are you a mini-IC? If not, why is such an experienced player in the beginners' game?

You say right at the start of your post that "Dorsidwarf a strong second contender [for scum]". You then proceed to post an extremely detailed analysis of pretty much every lynch vote in the game, and fail to follow this up. Can you clarify what exactly makes me one of your top scum picks? For reference, executedumbo.exe was replacing out when SBC/wolf was up for the vote.

Masked Krusader


He tried to push suspicion over a flipping RVS question, insisted my WIFOM dismissal was scummy, and then when it was clear his case was transparent, he moved onto to Scripten with an equally lame case.  After his attack on me ended, I thought he was probably just jumping the gun early in the game, but then he used outright falsehoods against Scripten, and it just seems he's trying to twist what people are saying to make them seem like scum.  His unvote looked like he was trying to withdraw when his case was blown again, just like before with me.  I do admit that part of my reason is a gut suspicion, but it looks to me that he's active lurking.
Why would I revenge vote someone for suspecting me?  Scum or town that's just a dumb move.  It doesn't have anything to do with the fact that he was targeting me, it's the fact that he keeps pushing cases without anything on his target.  He's not using real suspicions then aborting the case due to those suspicions being assuaged, he's trying to look like he's scumhunting without actually doing anything.
May I ask a question?
What exactly do you think the pointof the RVS, if you accused someone of scummnitude for forming opinions based on your RVS questions? That, uh, really is the whole point of them, I believe.

If a significant enough part of your vote reason is "gut suspicion" that it bear mentioning, does that not contradict your volumes of arguments against him, hmmm? When most players I've seen vote based on "gut feeling", they make it pretty clear they're doing so, and rarely post large paragraph explanations of themselves. Well, town players, that is.

I don't think you know what "active lurking" is either. He posted a lot, with arguments, defences and accusations in pretty much every one, as far as I saw. How does that possibly tie in with either definition of "active lurking"?

You brush off the "you're OMGUS-ing" accusation with a little dab of WIFOM. Saying 'I couldn't have possibly been doing that, that would be such a bad strategic choice I wouldn't have made' is shrugging off your scumtell.

Finally, last question: In light of his flip as the Jailkeeper, how do you feel about your previous accusations that he was "active lurking" and trying to look like he's scumhunting without actually doing anything.


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Cheeetar

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Re: Beginner's Mafia #51: Alien Invasion - Night 1
« Reply #221 on: November 28, 2014, 03:14:16 am »

Hey NQT. Good to have a quick replacement. Are you a mini-IC? If not, why is such an experienced player in the beginners' game?

I think we should probably be pretty glad that we even have so many people willing to replace in(and I don't just say this because I'm also a replacement myself.)
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I've played some mafia.

Most of the time when someone is described as politically correct they are simply correct.

notquitethere

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Re: Beginner's Mafia #51: Alien Invasion [9/9] - Day 1
« Reply #222 on: November 28, 2014, 03:26:06 am »

Scripten
While I agree with your analysis here, keep in mind that the non-voters in two of those games were not voting precisely because they were active lurking.
I'm not sure why that would be a caveat to my point. Without mitigating circumstances, I find nonvoting to be one of the stronger scum tells (though bearing in mind it's rare for both scum to be nonvoting, usually it's just one at a time).

Scintillant offers a number of reasons to vote Shamrock and backs them up in reference to actual posts. This case is formed in reaction to Scripten's questioning, and the vote on Shamrock is buried in the response rather than directed at their target. A great way to to get inexperienced players mislynched is to not directly question them when you're trying to lynch them.
You seem to be discounting the fact that Scintillant is also a new player. This push seems to be passive aggressive and I'm not sure how fond I am of it.
It's ironic that you think this push is passive aggressive when I'm pointing out a passive aggressive way that people get mislynched. It's something a player of any experience level might do regardless of alignment and I wouldn't use this point as a basis for deeming someone scummy. It's just a good technique if used by scum and so I tend to see it as bad form for town players.

You are forgetting that there are two scum players and this is a newbie game. This close to the end of the day, they could tie up the vote before deadline without much recourse from town if the distance between wagons is two or less. With this being a newbie game, they could easily get away with this and not even end up questioned about it. Shamrock had spent most of the day pushing misreps against various players, which comes across as scummy. Unfortunately, I've only ever seen his scum game, which seemed similar, so I considered him a safe D1 lynch. Sadly, he did not claim his PR before being lynched, though SBC's playstyle would have gotten him lynched, most likely.
I think scum players, even newbie scum players, tend to be a lot more risk averse than all that. I concede though that it is a possible concern, if not one I'd think a reasonable pressing. I agree with you about the PR thing though: one of the first thing ICs should be telling new players is that if they've got a power role they should claim if they're just about to be mislynched and they're not persuasive enough to press for an extension. Do you foresee lynching a player on stronger grounds today?

You seem to be missing that SBC had been all but rolefishing here. Did you read the response I got from my question that you quoted?

Inactivity does kill games. Scum don't just lurk, though. They lurk while pretending to contribute to the game state. Hence the case I made. Obviously I was wrong, but if you're going to try to poke holes in my case, then please at least aim for the case I made and not a vastly simplified strawman of it.
SBC's response seems to me to smack of honesty. It was a lousy RVS question to get people chatting. RVS questions shouldn't just be that, but in practice that's what most of them are. Asking how someone would act as such and such a role isn't really fishing, it's just lazy by-the-numbers random questioning. I can see why you'd object to people answering that one, it gives too much power to the scum if they take into account those kind of questions. But town ask these kind of questions all the time; it can be a sign that the questioner has that role on their mind. It's no mystery why SBC-the-jailkeeper asked a question about jailkeeping.

I wasn't aiming for a complete deconstruction of everyone's cases, but a quick overview. To see what warranted further investigation. I'm glad you're defending yourself though. That's promising. And given your disavowal of active-lurkers, when can we expect some active content from you today? Mostly just answering questions and voting lurkers is pretty much page one of the Being Scummy Bible.



Dorsidwarf
Hey NQT. Good to have a quick replacement. Are you a mini-IC? If not, why is such an experienced player in the beginners' game?
I've got to apologise here. I am a bit too experienced to play in any kind of beginners game. But games are damned awful if activity is low due to replacements required. A player that's too good is better than none at all. In role-heavy games, it can be safe to just modkill the absent player, but not in such a finely balanced set up as a BM. I've got a strong amicable interest in making mafia enjoyable for newcomers and raising the standard of people's game, but I'll leave the informative asides to the official ICs.

You say right at the start of your post that "Dorsidwarf a strong second contender [for scum]". You then proceed to post an extremely detailed analysis of pretty much every lynch vote in the game, and fail to follow this up. Can you clarify what exactly makes me one of your top scum picks? For reference, executedumbo.exe was replacing out when SBC/wolf was up for the vote.
A reasonable question. I wrote that line prior to doing the rest of the analysis and after looking at the lynch targets they were more promising to follow up. I meant that if there was a scum player on the Shamrock mislynch (likely) and that that scum player's buddy was not on that lynch (also quite likely), then that would leave you and Deus Asmoth as good scum candidates BUT very unlikely to be scum buddies. You've pointed out that Dumbo was in replacement during the SBC lynch, and Deus would have been on the SBC mislynch AND they didn't vote at the end of day 1: both these things made them a better scum candidate to pursue.

Do you think Masked Krusader's play is more indicative of scummy intent or being a very inexperienced player?



Cheeeetah
Hey NQT. Good to have a quick replacement. Are you a mini-IC? If not, why is such an experienced player in the beginners' game?

I think we should probably be pretty glad that we even have so many people willing to replace in(and I don't just say this because I'm also a replacement myself.)
Thanks chief. How much stock do you put in town player's reads? I haven't thought in great depth on the matter, but my intuition here is that they can be a bit of a red herring, as individual town players tend to lack any special knowledge or insights (especially those town players that allow themselves to get mislynched on day 1).
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Dorsidwarf

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Re: Beginner's Mafia #51: Alien Invasion - Night 1
« Reply #223 on: November 28, 2014, 03:36:27 am »

nqt
As a newbie player myself, I'm not completely sure, but my personal opinion is that he's a
scum, based on the volume of things such as WIFOM, OMGUS, bandwagoning, and misusing terms like 'active lurking'. While you expect people to maybe slip up on one or two things, because BM, it just seems like too much of a coincidence.

Also, Shamrock was the jailkeeper, not 4mask/SBC
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notquitethere

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Re: Beginner's Mafia #51: Alien Invasion - Night 1
« Reply #224 on: November 28, 2014, 03:41:58 am »

As a newbie player myself, I'm not completely sure, but my personal opinion is that he's a
scum, based on the volume of things such as WIFOM, OMGUS, bandwagoning, and misusing terms like 'active lurking'. While you expect people to maybe slip up on one or two things, because BM, it just seems like too much of a coincidence.
Obviously we shouldn't excuse things indefinitely but I've seen a lot of newbie town players mislynched because they ticked the conventional scumtell boxes. That's why I try to dig a bit deeper.

Also, Shamrock was the jailkeeper, not 4mask/SBC
Ah yeah, my mistake.
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