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Author Topic: Supernatural Mafia 6 - Game Over!  (Read 169439 times)

ToonyMan

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Re: Supernatural Mafia 6 - Day 3 solves metaproblems
« Reply #510 on: November 15, 2013, 04:42:37 pm »

@NQT:
Why would Max fakeclaim seer just to get Persus lynched, the more I think about it, the less sense it makes.
You're right, there is no reason.  I don't think that means it can't happen though.

@Tiruin:
I'm not claiming my role by the way. Given how I'm still damn unsure about things. No I'm not claiming until massclaim. I'm not the Hunter.
"I'm not claiming but I'm not the hunter."  Do you realize you're completely defeating the purpose of not mass-claiming in this case?  The hunter doesn't want to be known because the mafia can kill him.  If you claim not to be the hunter then you've easily narrowed their possibilities.



Also, why are people extending?  We have the entire weekend and most of Monday with an already clear lynch candidate.
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Tiruin

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Re: Supernatural Mafia 6 - Day 3 solves metaproblems
« Reply #511 on: November 15, 2013, 06:19:27 pm »

@Tiruin:
I'm not claiming my role by the way. Given how I'm still damn unsure about things. No I'm not claiming until massclaim. I'm not the Hunter.
"I'm not claiming but I'm not the hunter."  Do you realize you're completely defeating the purpose of not mass-claiming in this case?  The hunter doesn't want to be known because the mafia can kill him.  If you claim not to be the hunter then you've easily narrowed their possibilities.
Think of it from scumshoes. Many people have claimed, and it would be interesting to note if those people are scum
Out of 8 people:
    Nerjin - Town Dreamwalker
    Cmega3 - Town Witch


    Jim Groovester
    Tiruin - Not the Hunter.
    Persus13 - Knight
    Imp - Fortune Teller // Mystic
    ToonyMan
    notquitethere - Priest (spent on Nerjin)
    Max White - Seer // Mystic
    Toaster

    Caz - Cult Priest

And scum know at my bes tprediction, 2 of their own roles- either mixed in with the claims above or totally unknown (which I bet one of them is in the claims above given how tense the situation is now). I'm not telling them my role, however I'm also narrowing it down for town to check in.

This either will attract the scumkill/actions to me, or not. Either way, I will drink a toast and be merry. I can be a knight. I can be the hunter. I can be whatever they want me to believe, but I ain't claiming until everyone claims.

Target me scum, I want you to~

..Also still waiting on that long list I asked you before Toony.

Quote
Also, why are people extending?  We have the entire weekend and most of Monday with an already clear lynch candidate.
I am the people now? Ehh, my mind was fuzzy back then to check on time. It's mostly always like that in regard to time.
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Imp

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Re: Supernatural Mafia 6 - Day 3 solves metaproblems
« Reply #512 on: November 15, 2013, 06:27:54 pm »

Tiruin:
Imp: What makes you think this 'cult' can convert?

I believe this game's Scum team has around a 2% chance of being able to convert, that might be conservatively high, I'm guessing about some stuff that hasn't been proven or disproven in any previous game.

But I wasn't joking when I told Jim that to me 'impossible' is pretty much a 0.0% chance of something.

So let me clarify - I think it is unlikely, but not impossible, that this game has a Scum converter (~2% chance).  I also think it is possible, but extremely unlikely (~0.3%) that the game has a third party converter.

My reasoning:

N1 had no kills, with one report of a possible attempted kill(Persus13).  The flavor of that attempt, a sword wielder, suggests a third party/probable monster hunter.

N2 had two kills, with no reports of possible attempted kills.  The flavor of one kill supports a possible death through sword.  The flavor of the other kill is a disappearance with a forced entry, which supports a killing-style cult as seen in S2.

The successful 'sword-like' kill of N2 supports Persus13's story of having been attacked.  The two most likely reasons I can think of for this:  1)  Persus13 is telling the truth about what happened to him N1 (regardlessof his role and alignment).  2)  Persus13 is some sort killing party, Town or not, who knows from his role PM that he kills with a sword.  He felt it useful for his wincon to do nothing N1 and to present the story on D2 of having been attacked N1 in a way that matches how his future victims will appear.  Unless he is suspected of pretending to be his own victim, he should be the last person suspected of being the killer - he should also be far less likely to be targeted as the night kill on any night (as long as he makes it through N1) because Scum are as likely as Town are to believe his story and the 'supporting evidence' of his future night kills.

I like Occam's Razor.  I believe Persus13 theory 1 - That Persus is telling the truth, but I am not about to say Persus13 theory 2 is impossible yet.

However, there's still the 'why' of the missing 'second N1 kill' - even D1 we suspected that the sword wielder was not Scum.

There's a few reasons I can think of for this:  1)  They planned to keep worry about conversions high and knew they could res the D1 lynch (even if NQT is Town this holds, because there is a known priest on Scum team - it is possible that both tried to raise Nerjin and that NQT won the race) - Lynching is still happening, (perhaps) no member of the Scum team as of D1 was looking to be a very likely lynch 'soon' so there's no rush with night kills.  Future night kills (which they probably knew would look like disappearances from their PMs) could be blamed on some strange result from the resurrection.  2)  They tried but were somehow blocked or evaded.  Whomever blocked or evaded either did not claim it, or could not (because their method of evasion/blocking made it impossible for them to know it was tried?)  3)  They are converters, and they converted someone.

The two deaths of N2 greatly lessen the likelihood to me that there's a conversion cult.  But do not rule it out - it also may be possible that the type of conversion cult they are is slightly different from S2 - I am not sure it's impossible for a religious cult to bring a victim to a 'sacred place' and attempt to convert them - killing them if that conversion fails.  It could also be possible that the kills of S2's killing cult -could- have resulted in conversions instead of kills.  Their role PMs said only:

And it spoke back. Promising power beyond your wildest dreams, if you only you would set it free.

And so, for the past few years, you have begun learning what is needed to set it free. And now you are ready. All you need is blood. A simple thing, and in plentiful supply here, as long as you can remain uncaught.

Each night one of you will go out and capture a victim to sacrifice.

So in effect, it 'converted' the original Cult members.  The flavor of each night kill is clearly they intended to kill - but it may be possible that a conversion could have occurred instead if Meph had rolled that. So, more questions for poor Meph!

Meph - Is it possible for the Scum team in this game to have a 'night action' that could kill or convert, instead of always only killing or always only converting?
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Mephansteras

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Re: Supernatural Mafia 6 - Day 3 solves metaproblems
« Reply #513 on: November 15, 2013, 06:29:30 pm »

Meph - Is it possible for the Scum team in this game to have a 'night action' that could kill or convert, instead of always only killing or always only converting?
It is possible. Although such an ability would have to have constraints on it or some other balancing factor to keep the game fair.
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Imp

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Re: Supernatural Mafia 6 - Day 3 solves metaproblems
« Reply #514 on: November 15, 2013, 06:29:40 pm »

Mean to Extend too.  I don't see how more time to talk about things ask about things, and for people to answer questions can possible hurt Town.

After all, one or two people are probably dying tonight, and one certainly is going to be lynched.  I don't see how rushing those deaths helps Town, and there are a lot of unanswered questions dancing around.
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Tiruin

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Re: Supernatural Mafia 6 - Day 3 solves metaproblems
« Reply #515 on: November 15, 2013, 06:32:00 pm »

Tiruin:
Imp: What makes you think this 'cult' can convert?

I believe this game's Scum team has around a 2% chance of being able to convert, that might be conservatively high, I'm guessing about some stuff that hasn't been proven or disproven in any previous game.

But I wasn't joking when I told Jim that to me 'impossible' is pretty much a 0.0% chance of something.

So let me clarify - I think it is unlikely, but not impossible, that this game has a Scum converter (~2% chance).  I also think it is possible, but extremely unlikely (~0.3%) that the game has a third party converter.
I'll read the explanation later--what's the sample population here where you draw the percentages from?

Also given my Edit, I'd fathom that N1..scum didn't kill to check whether there were other kills coming along? Nobody thought of--or publicly thought of--that yet.
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Tiruin

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Re: Supernatural Mafia 6 - Day 3 solves metaproblems
« Reply #516 on: November 15, 2013, 06:34:42 pm »

EBWOP:

Quote
However, there's still the 'why' of the missing 'second N1 kill' - even D1 we suspected that the sword wielder was not Scum.
Eh? There was no N0 or anystuff like that. And we've been speculating so far that there's a hunter--for who would've done the second kill in N2?
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ToonyMan

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Re: Supernatural Mafia 6 - Day 3 solves metaproblems
« Reply #517 on: November 15, 2013, 07:24:33 pm »

This either will attract the scumkill/actions to me, or not. Either way, I will drink a toast and be merry. I can be a knight. I can be the hunter. I can be whatever they want me to believe, but I ain't claiming until everyone claims.
Target me scum, I want you to~
Are you admitting to lying then?  If you really are the hunter then you're town (or a third-party I guess) that is lying.

..Also still waiting on that long list I asked you before Toony.
What list?  Also I hope I don't have to write anything long...

Quote
Also, why are people extending?  We have the entire weekend and most of Monday with an already clear lynch candidate.
I am the people now? Ehh, my mind was fuzzy back then to check on time. It's mostly always like that in regard to time.
Somebody has extended before you, don't be so selfish.
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Persus13

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Re: Supernatural Mafia 6 - Day 3 solves metaproblems
« Reply #518 on: November 15, 2013, 07:25:47 pm »

Important! Cults in Supernatural CAN NOT CONVERT. Imp, you should know this. CULT DOES NOT equal Vampire. Cmega3's death perfectly fits the flavor of Cult in Supernatural 2.

Please read Supernatural 2's flavor at least.
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Persus13

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Re: Supernatural Mafia 6 - Day 3 solves metaproblems
« Reply #519 on: November 15, 2013, 07:26:57 pm »

Also, Cult can only kill, and is a NORMAL SCUMTEAM.
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ToonyMan

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Re: Supernatural Mafia 6 - Day 3 solves metaproblems
« Reply #520 on: November 15, 2013, 07:27:51 pm »

Yeah, I would have to say right now I don't think there are conversions.
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Jim Groovester

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Re: Supernatural Mafia 6 - Day 3 solves metaproblems
« Reply #521 on: November 15, 2013, 07:49:01 pm »

The only conversions we've seen so far have been Vampric.  I'm not sure if human Cultists -could- convert or not.  I'm not scared of Vampires specifically - I'm scared of Converters (if there's any chance we have one - and I hope not but I'm not convinced it is ruled out - I do think that we 'probably' don't have a converter - but I don't rule things out until they are very close to 0.0% probability).

Why are you suggesting we lynch notquitethere just in case he's a converter when you believe that that possibility is a distant one?

If you believe it's a stretch why are you even bothering trying to use that to motivate a lynch on your choice of target?

And if you think notquitethere is a much better target, why do you lack the commitment to cast your vote the way you really want it to?
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Imp

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Re: Supernatural Mafia 6 - Day 3 solves metaproblems
« Reply #522 on: November 15, 2013, 08:19:16 pm »

Important! Cults in Supernatural CAN NOT CONVERT. Imp, you should know this. CULT DOES NOT equal Vampire. Cmega3's death perfectly fits the flavor of Cult in Supernatural 2.

Please read Supernatural 2's flavor at least.

*blink*  I have, repeatedly.

Maybe you misunderstand - I think you're Scum, notquitethere.

That's totally separate from my worry that you could be a converter.  That worry is the only reason I'd rather lynch you today, because -any- chance of a converter's more than I like, and I worry (not think, not believe, I worry) that you could be one.

If you're not, I'm just fine with everyone examining your Scumminess D4, even if I'm no longer around.

After Max White, you are my next Scumpick, by a vast margin.
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Persus13

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Re: Supernatural Mafia 6 - Day 3 solves metaproblems
« Reply #523 on: November 15, 2013, 08:38:48 pm »

NQT:
A sorcerer looks like a commuter, or whatever-it's-called. The one that goes elsewhere and so can't be affected by any night actions. If so, that's probably why there was no Day 1 NK: hunter hit a knight and the cult hit the sorcerer. Guess we'll find out at game end.
Hmm, I thought of the sorcerer as like the Paranormal War Vet.

Seer is the role the scum most want to remove from the game.
Assumption. And lynching a seer is not really the best way to go about killing him. [sarcasm] But after all, it's not as if the scum could kill a seer a different way, right? [/sarcasm] Scum could be more interested in lynching the hunter, or maybe even something they can't night-kill, like a knight or a sorcerer.

If there are in fact two scum, Persus might also be scum.
So suddenly I'm not scum, despite your assertion that Max couldn't possibly have fakeclaimed?

And you're logic is flawed because it fails to keep the options open. Which to me is scummy.
What does that even mean? I laid out an argument with very clear premises. Please demonstrate why one or more of the premises is false.
Jim said it best:
Or have I made a false assumption somewhere along the line?

Yeah:

Max has no rational reason to fakeclaim Seer

You assume he's acting rationally.

Experience has taught me that this isn't something you can always expect Max White to do.

I think we should lynch Imp because it would be illogical, regardless of his alignment, for Max to fakeclaim seer. As she's said Max is not a Seer then she must be lying. Where've I gone wrong here?
And because it's illogical for him to fakeclaim Seer, Imp must be lynched despite the fact that he's (Max, Imp is a she) accusing me of being malevolent. What?

If Persus is a malicious 3rd party, scum-seer-Max would gain cache with the town in successfully outing him.
Ah.

Why would Max fakeclaim seer just to get Persus lynched, the more I think about it, the less sense it makes.
Maybe because I can't be NKed?

Also, I'm confirmed town priest: Nerjin wouldn't have been brought back as town by a scum priest, you know that.
Further assumptions.

You know, if you weren't so doggedly defending Max and making assumptions, I'd still think you were town.


The Scribe's Tally Sheet
Imp: notquitethere
Max White: Imp, Jim Groovester, Toaster, Persus13, ToonyMan
Persus13: Max White
I don't know why, but something tells me Max is getting lynched today.

Imp:
Persus13:
Imp: But if Imp rezzed Nerjin, and Nerjin turned out town. Do you have an explanation for that?

I know Imp didn't res Nerjin - do you mean if Caz did?
Thanks for the response, and I meant NQT. However this brings up a point. Do you believe Caz rezzed Nerjin and NQT claimed that he did and that's why you think he's a converter?

PSA

*blink*  I have, repeatedly.
I guessed you would have, it was a general statement.

Maybe you misunderstand - I think you're Scum, notquitethere.

That's totally separate from my worry that you could be a converter.  That worry is the only reason I'd rather lynch you today, because -any- chance of a converter's more than I like, and I worry (not think, not believe, I worry) that you could be one.
And this is Persus13 not NQT who posted. However, I'd love to know what your basis in thinking NQT is a converter is from. Is it because he's a priest?


Tiruin:
Because..err, the latest posts dictate an 'I want THIS GUY dead.' vibe instead of a 'convince me or persuade me' neutral vibe.
Max's sole argument against me is that he's a seer. I can't counter that, except state how scummy Max has seemed this game.

EDIT: Or we're just fooling ourselves that there is a cult at all given how THERE WAS A CULT BEFORE with the same format as how our cult is now (missing a prefix//normal scumteam). Though this does leave the 'special role' out and that game did have 12 players..ugh. [Did anyone link this before?!]
I've mentioned Supernatural 2 at least once before and have recommended reading it.

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Imp

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Re: Supernatural Mafia 6 - Day 3 solves metaproblems
« Reply #524 on: November 15, 2013, 08:51:28 pm »

Tiruin:
what's the sample population here where you draw the percentages from?
Can't be answered.  I'm basing it on the past S games, the events of this game, and guesses about probability.  It's a measure, tuned to fine detail, of how likely I believe those outcomes are based on everything I'm aware of, both factors that increase and decrease likelihood in my opinion - but there is no sample population.  If I was a bookie, that's what I'd use for offering betting percentages and payouts.

Meph - Is it possible for the Scum team in this game to have a 'night action' that could kill or convert, instead of always only killing or always only converting?
It is possible. Although such an ability would have to have constraints on it or some other balancing factor to keep the game fair.

Jim:

The only conversions we've seen so far have been Vampric.  I'm not sure if human Cultists -could- convert or not.  I'm not scared of Vampires specifically - I'm scared of Converters (if there's any chance we have one - and I hope not but I'm not convinced it is ruled out - I do think that we 'probably' don't have a converter - but I don't rule things out until they are very close to 0.0% probability).

Why are you suggesting we lynch notquitethere just in case he's a converter when you believe that that possibility is a distant one?

If you believe it's a stretch why are you even bothering trying to use that to motivate a lynch on your choice of target?

And if you think notquitethere is a much better target, why do you lack the commitment to cast your vote the way you really want it to?

I think it's called 'acceptable risk'.  I'm the sort of person who doesn't go outside when there's a strong lightning storm, because the risk of being struck (though low) is so costly to me, that I'd almost always rather pay the 'price' of not going outside instead until the danger is less.

Does it matter which Scum is lynched first?  No - unless there is conversion.  Then it matters a great deal.  I believe it's impossible for Max White to be a converter - he is a survivor not a Changer.  I don't believe it's impossible for notquitethere to be a converter (very low probability, but not impossible) yet when I spoke about how it wasn't impossible for him to be a Vampire Leader (back before we knew Scum team flavor) - he reacted and quite strongly.  That reaction got my attention.  Maybe he's not a 'Vampire Leader' - and we have solid reason to believe we don't have vampires.  But that doesn't explain his strong reaction, and maybe he reacted that way because he is a type of converter (even if only under certain circumstances, with certain limits - which Meph's answer quoted above did not rule out, and I asked about -this- game.  Not any Supernatural game - this one.

As to why vote Max White instead of notquitethere, there's also the counterargument of my vote elsewhere showing that I don't support a Max lynch.  I do, I support what I said, I support that Max is Scum, that Max lied.  I -hope- it doesn't matter which Scum we lynch tonight - but even if I die tonight (or even today, should opinions change) my case is out there and can be considered for whatever it is worth.  I do believe notquitethere is also Scum, for all the reasons I have listed previously.

Persus:
Also, Cult can only kill, and is a NORMAL SCUMTEAM.

We have only seen Cult priests resurrect to Cult in previous games - yet Meph has told us that resurrection is never certain, and the role PM for known Scum priests warns that it may not work as expected.  Despite this - several players (including notquitethere) very firmly challenged that even Imp knows that Scum resurrect players as Scum, period.  I'm not convinced by people telling me, however firmly, that something is impossible when there is, in fact, a chance that it is possible.

What if all 5 cult kills S2 only 'happened' to be kills - that there was a hidden roll and 'conversion' could have occurred instead?

What if the 'unseen' role this game is a shared Scum team role, very similar to S2's cult, only they do have a form of convert-or-kill, and they were so similar otherwise to the S2 cult that Meph remembered them as the same?

Questions such as these make me wonder if we -could- have conversions, at least rarely, this game.  That alone makes me care which Scum is lynched first.  Otherwise - it doesn't matter.  But if it matters - it matters a lot.  Because of the cost of 'if it's true', I care.

Meph - Did you miss me asking about THIS GAME when you answered the question : "Is it possible for the Scum team in this game to have a 'night action' that could kill or convert, instead of always only killing or always only converting?"
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