Tiruin:
what's the sample population here where you draw the percentages from?
Can't be answered. I'm basing it on the past S games, the events of this game, and guesses about probability. It's a measure, tuned to fine detail, of how likely I believe those outcomes are based on everything I'm aware of, both factors that increase and decrease likelihood in my opinion - but there is no sample population. If I was a bookie, that's what I'd use for offering betting percentages and payouts.
Meph - Is it possible for the Scum team in this game to have a 'night action' that could kill or convert, instead of always only killing or always only converting?
It is possible. Although such an ability would have to have constraints on it or some other balancing factor to keep the game fair.
Jim:
The only conversions we've seen so far have been Vampric. I'm not sure if human Cultists -could- convert or not. I'm not scared of Vampires specifically - I'm scared of Converters (if there's any chance we have one - and I hope not but I'm not convinced it is ruled out - I do think that we 'probably' don't have a converter - but I don't rule things out until they are very close to 0.0% probability).
Why are you suggesting we lynch notquitethere just in case he's a converter when you believe that that possibility is a distant one?
If you believe it's a stretch why are you even bothering trying to use that to motivate a lynch on your choice of target?
And if you think notquitethere is a much better target, why do you lack the commitment to cast your vote the way you really want it to?
I think it's called 'acceptable risk'. I'm the sort of person who doesn't go outside when there's a strong lightning storm, because the risk of being struck (though low) is so costly to me, that I'd almost always rather pay the 'price' of not going outside instead until the danger is less.
Does it matter which Scum is lynched first? No - unless there is conversion. Then it matters a great deal. I believe it's impossible for Max White to be a converter - he is a survivor not a Changer. I don't believe it's impossible for notquitethere to be a converter (very low probability, but not impossible) yet when I spoke about how it wasn't impossible for him to be a Vampire Leader (back before we knew Scum team flavor) - he reacted and quite strongly. That reaction got my attention. Maybe he's not a 'Vampire Leader' - and we have solid reason to believe we don't have vampires. But that doesn't explain his strong reaction, and maybe he reacted that way because he is a type of converter (even if only under certain circumstances, with certain limits - which Meph's answer quoted above did not rule out, and I asked about -this- game. Not any Supernatural game -
this one.
As to why vote Max White instead of notquitethere, there's also the counterargument of my vote elsewhere showing that I don't support a Max lynch. I do, I support what I said, I support that Max is Scum, that Max lied. I -hope- it doesn't matter which Scum we lynch tonight - but even if I die tonight (or even today, should opinions change) my case is out there and can be considered for whatever it is worth. I do believe notquitethere is also Scum, for all the reasons I have listed previously.
Persus:
Also, Cult can only kill, and is a NORMAL SCUMTEAM.
We have only seen Cult priests resurrect to Cult in previous games - yet Meph has told us that resurrection is never certain, and the role PM for known Scum priests warns that it may not work as expected. Despite this - several players (including notquitethere) very firmly challenged that even Imp knows that Scum resurrect players as Scum, period. I'm not convinced by people telling me, however firmly, that something is impossible when there is, in fact, a chance that it is possible.
What if all 5 cult kills S2 only 'happened' to be kills - that there was a hidden roll and 'conversion' could have occurred instead?
What if the 'unseen' role this game is a shared Scum team role, very similar to S2's cult, only they do have a form of convert-or-kill, and they were so similar otherwise to the S2 cult that Meph remembered them as the same?
Questions such as these make me wonder if we -could- have conversions, at least rarely, this game. That alone makes me care which Scum is lynched first. Otherwise - it doesn't matter. But if it matters - it matters a lot. Because of the cost of 'if it's true', I care.
Meph - Did you miss me asking about THIS GAME when you answered the question : "Is it possible for the Scum team in this game to have a 'night action' that could kill or convert, instead of always only killing or always only converting?"
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Topic: Supernatural Mafia 6 - Game Over! (Read 170603 times)