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[notquitethere]

Persus

NQT: Nice OMGUS vote you got there.

Voting for someone who has voted you is not an 'OMGUS' if you have good reasons for voting them.

And you're logic is flawed because it fails to keep the options open. Which to me is scummy.

What does that even mean? I laid out an argument with very clear premises. Please demonstrate why one or more of the premises is false.

[Toaster]

NQT:

Toaster, you going to weigh down on either side here?

I was waiting for Max to reply.


Imp:

Massive four-post text wall

Can I get a TL;DR of that?  Specifically, a summary of your evidence on NQT (but your other points as well.)


Max:  Let's see here.  Fair enough on your NQT comments, though I get the feeling you're overstating your fear of conversion.

Anyway, the mechanics here remain pretty simple, you just have to go other the possibilities:
If you lynch Persus and he is scum
-Well done, you lynched scum, one left.
If you lynch Persus and he is not scum
-You can conclude I was lying and therefor scum
-I get killed tonight by a sword wielding monster hunter
-The scum get one kill before business as normal
Either way a scum player is dead before day 4.

If you lynch me and I'm scum
-Well done, you lynched scum, one left.
If you lynch me and I'm not scum
-You just lynched the cop
-You can conclude I was correct and therefor Persus is scum
-The monster hunter can't kill a knight and you have to wait until tomorrow to lynch him
-The scum get today and tomorrows kills before business as normal, essentially costing you a townie you didn't need to loose

You are running a risk you don't have to take. If I'm scum, how am I going to live either way? Better to test the claim without killing me during the day for the possibility that I'm right. If you lynch Persus, you have a lot more to gain than loose.

So your conclusion is "It's totally okay if I'm scum, guys!  You can just hope Mr. Vig comes by and kills me!"  This, of course, ignores scum guards, wizards, illusionists, et al.  Given this is a desperate plea for survival and that you've been counterclaimed, I believe the choice is clear.

Max White.  Since Town Max would pretty much require Scum Imp and Scum Persus, if you flip town, we can hope the vig offs Imp tonight and Persus hangs tomorrow, GG.  (Which is why it'd be silly for two scum to try and get one townie lynched- especially since we're not even sure if there are three scum to begin with.)


Tiruin:  I don't see the benefit to a massclaim.  In the extremely likely case that Max is scum, the scum team is down to either 0 or 1 members.  There's still value in keeping information close to the chest.


NQT:

If Max is a Seer (good or bad) then either Persus is malicious (scum or 3rd party) or Max was redirected. Max has no rational reason to fakeclaim Seer (if he's scum then it'd spell doom for him on a false Persus-flip. Town wouldn't fakeclaim). So Max is a seer. If Max is a seer and Imp can't be redirected, then Imp is scum. Max is Seer so Imp is scum. As we have reason to believe that there is only one scum member left, if Imp is scum then Persus is not scum (and instead a malicious 3rd party). By this logic we should lynch Imp and win the game.

Err... I don't follow.  Let's assume for a second we do lynch Imp.  What do we do if he flips town?  Mafia?  Third party?  Why not lynch Max and be done with it?  What do you think of Max's idea to lynch Persus and hope Max gets vigged if Persus flips town?


Jim:  What is your read on NQT?  You give him a lot of flak but don't particularly seem to be accusing him of anything.

[notquitethere]

Toaster

Err... I don't follow.  Let's assume for a second we do lynch Imp.  What do we do if he flips town?  Mafia?  Third party?  Why not lynch Max and be done with it?  What do you think of Max's idea to lynch Persus and hope Max gets vigged if Persus flips town?

If she flips town (which, she shouldn't if my reasoning is correct) then we'd know Max is scum and someone can night kill him or we lynch him. Hell, if we lynch any of Persus, Max or Imp we learn whether the others are lying.

I think we should lynch Imp because it would be illogical, regardless of his alignment, for Max to fakeclaim seer. As she's said Max is not a Seer then she must be lying. Where've I gone wrong here?

[Toaster]

Okay, so you're saying you believe Max's role, if not his alignment.  That was what I missed.

[notquitethere]

Okay, so you're saying you believe Max's role, if not his alignment.  That was what I missed.

That's right. I'm agnostic about whether Max is town. I think he may well be scum (hence why Imp is so eager not to vote him and vote for me instead if only there were a consensus) but he might be town or third-party.

[Jim Groovester]

wall o text

This is a lot of paranoid rambling. Two things:

Why do you care about Vampires and notquitethere being a Vampire Lord when our scumteam is Cultists?

Would a scum priest resurrect a dead town player and bring him back as town? Because some priest out there brought Nerjin back as his original alignment.

I think you're being really paranoid, what with how you're considering possibilities that aren't actually possibilities anymore.

Or have I made a false assumption somewhere along the line?

Yeah:

Max has no rational reason to fakeclaim Seer

You assume he's acting rationally.

Experience has taught me that this isn't something you can always expect Max White to do.

Jim:  What is your read on NQT?  You give him a lot of flak but don't particularly seem to be accusing him of anything.

Probably town, but more because of the way the setup was constructed than anything he's done.

Also, I'm giving him flak because he proudly declared the success of his analysis in surmising that Caz was scum, only for him to not vote him at the end of the day. I'm making fun of him for patting himself on the back for being oh so smart.

[Mephansteras]

The Scribe's Tally Sheet
Imp: notquitethere
Max White: Imp, Jim Groovester, Toaster, Persus13, ToonyMan
Persus13: Max White


Day ends ~5pm Pacific Monday

Meph//Guard Captain: State of the lock of the door of Cmega's house? Broken? Picked?

The door seems to have been forced.

Meph, how many members did the scum team start with?

That is not known at this time.

Still, both these possibilities depend on the unknown new role...
Meph: Does the previously unseen role have to be on the front page, being something that could have been in past games, or is it possible it is totally unseen?

It is a role that could have been in past games (It's always been in my script) but not necessarily one on the front page.

Meph could you tell us whether fortune-tellers can be redirected?

Most roles (that have a target) can be redirected.

[Imp]

If Max is a Seer (good or bad) then either Persus is malicious (scum or 3rd party) or Max was redirected. Max has no rational reason to fakeclaim Seer (if he's scum then it'd spell doom for him on a false Persus-flip. Town wouldn't fakeclaim). So Max is a seer. If Max is a seer and Imp can't be redirected, then Imp is scum. Max is Seer so Imp is scum. As we have reason to believe that there is only one scum member left, if Imp is scum then Persus is not scum (and instead a malicious 3rd party). By this logic we should lynch Imp and win the game.

Or have I made a false assumption somewhere along the line?

We don't know that Scum Seers see the same players as malicious that Town Seers do - there has never yet been a Scum Seer (not even a converted one).

But talk about assumptions that - wait a minute - how could a TOWN PLAYER ever make this assumption?

You are... expecting... a bad Seer... to honestly report... that "Persus is malicious (scum or 3rd party)".  You -honestly- analyze that a good or bad Seer would get the same result on a player, and report to EVERYONE an honest result on said player - For that matter - what the heck would a SCUM SEER be doing INVESTIGATING ANOTHER SCUM?

*sits down*  *raises hand*  *speaks in a calmer voice*  Guys?  Can we -please- lynch this man first?  Just in case he is a converter of some sort?  You do all hear the level of BS he is throwing, right?

[Imp]

Toaster (and others who want a TL;DR)

Imp:

Massive four-post text wall

Can I get a TL;DR of that?  Specifically, a summary of your evidence on NQT (but your other points as well.)

1st post of four (376 words, including quotes... is too long... wha?)  questions to Max about his surity in the # of Scum he thinks we face (scum would know that #) and his selective use of talking about the possibility of his being Scum.

2nd post(less than 550 words...)  Looks at how illusionists have worked in past Supernaturals and considers if they could affect those that don't leave their houses to take actions.

3rd post Case against NQT, summary at top and in spoiler below

Spoiler (click to show/hide)

To summarize the supporting evidence below, NQT is Scum because:

1)  He responds to pressure from Max (who is -extremely- likely to be Scum) differently than he does to pressure from anyone else - he confronts everyone else's pressure - to Max he vacillates and acquiesces over and over and over again.

2)  He set up Nerjin to be lynched, simultaneously 'evading' Max's D1 pressure (and Max also lessens, the drops that pressure D1, despite his claim of an inspect N1 changing his opinion of NQT).

3)  He waffles about why he lynched Nerjin/why he (claims to have) resurrected Nerjin.

4)  He tried to set up Jim in a very similar way to how he tried to set up Nerjin.

5)  He seriously discussed the odds of Jim being a monster hunter, really pressed this - despite the value to Town of any possible hunter not being exposed, and the value to Scum in any hunter being exposed.

6)  He reacted -greatly- to my counterargument of Persus13's statement "Anyway, NQT couldn't be a Vampire Lord", which didn't say that NQT -was one-, merely challenged that it was not proven impossible.

7)  From the beginning of the game - from before Max started to seriously tunnel NQT - NQT has spoken 'oddly' to Max (and to a lesser extent, to Caz) in a way totally different from how he has spoken to every other player.  In nearly -every- post interacting with Max - in nearly -every- sentence of interaction with Max, NQT's use of sentence structure has been more complex, his use of commas more frequent, his use of direct and clear speech vastly less.  If he were talking to -everyone- like this I would consider it differently, but he's not doing this with everyone.  It's constant with Max, slightly present with Caz, and almost completely absent (at least before the tunneling of D1 starts, on page 10 if you use 15 posts per page) from his interactions with anyone else.  Past page 10 NQT continues to use this unusual form of speech, especially when interacting with Max (during times of pressure and otherwise) but also during times of likely high stress.

4th postVotes for Max White, asks for consideration of risk of their being 3 starting scum, one of them a converter - and because of fear of that possibility, asks the group to consider lynching NQT first (as Max is Survivor, not Changer - cannot be a converter)

[notquitethere]

Imp
If Persus is a malicious 3rd party, scum-seer-Max would gain cache with the town in successfully outing him. Then, on the next day when they miraculously survive they can say their scum mate is good and then if believed they waltz home to victory. We clear now?

Why would Max fakeclaim seer just to get Persus lynched, the more I think about it, the less sense it makes.

Also, I'm confirmed town priest: Nerjin wouldn't have been brought back as town by a scum priest, you know that.

[Imp]

Persus13:

Imp: But if Imp rezzed Nerjin, and Nerjin turned out town. Do you have an explanation for that?

I know Imp didn't res Nerjin - do you mean if Caz did?

Town players do not have a 100% success rating for their res attempts.  Therefore, I believe that Scum priests also do not have a 100% success rating.

So far we have only seen the night actions of one Scum priest - that Scum priest converted a dead Town Knight into a live vanilla Werewolf in S5, N3.  Unlike Town resurrections, where the priest waits until there's some sign that the action worked and then goes home so the target never sees who made the resurrection happen, the one Scum conversion had the werewolf priest stay and watch all the way through.

You set out once again to grow your pack from the ranks of the dead, hoping that this time you will find a body to perform the Rite of Resurrection on.

ToonyMan’s flesh heals, and his body grows in size and form and musculature and his face transforms from that of a human to that of a wolf, and you know that your request has been granted.

ToonyMan’s first sight on returning to mortality is that of your smiling face as a human, but it is time to welcome him to your pack as a wolf.

So, as Scum, that priest got a good result - and the newly turned Scum player had immediate access to Scum chat (like Scum need)

You wake up. You’re lying in the graveyard, next to your grave. You look at your hands and find the motion unusual. With less color than you’re used to, you see sharp claws attached to a furred paw. You see a figure standing above you. With a sniff, you recognize him as Orangebottle.

You have come back to life as a Werewolf. You retain all the knowledge you had before you died. Your goal is now that of the pack’s: to break the strength of the few remaining members of this town and take the Duchy as your own.

You have a special ability to speak with one another in secret. Use it wisely

So that's all the evidence we have to go on.  But I'm unwilling to believe from this one example that Scum priests, unlike Town priests, are 100% successful when they raise the dead.  And that Scum priest's role PM said there was no guarantee it would work properly, I quote it at the bottom of this post.  However, the 'measure' of what unsuccessful is for a Scum priest may be very different than what happens for an unsuccessful Town priest - one of the 'wow, I didn't mean for that to happen' possible results for a Scum priest could well be bringing someone back to life with the role and alignment that the person originally had.  Scum really don't want more Townsfolk up and breathing, goes against the wincon.

Jim:

Why do you care about Vampires and notquitethere being a Vampire Lord when our scumteam is Cultists?

Would a scum priest resurrect a dead town player and bring him back as town? Because some priest out there brought Nerjin back as his original alignment.

Before we'd lynched our first Scum (before we knew the Scum team's flavor), NQT reacted to my disagreement with Persus's statement that it was impossible for NQT to be Vampire Lord.  The form of NQT's reaction was "Oh not you as well", that he'd breadcrumbed priest so early in play, thus he had to be a priest.

The only conversions we've seen so far have been Vampric.  I'm not sure if human Cultists -could- convert or not.  I'm not scared of Vampires specifically - I'm scared of Converters (if there's any chance we have one - and I hope not but I'm not convinced it is ruled out - I do think that we 'probably' don't have a converter - but I don't rule things out until they are very close to 0.0% probability).

As to the res as a Town player - yes someone did.  Town Priests have a piety rating, and a 50% chance of a 'whoops', which can do one of many different things.

Scum priests - I think it is likely that they too have a piety rating, and that they too could have a 'whoops'.  And that Scum priest's role PM said there was no guarantee it would work properly, I quote it at the bottom of this post.   For a Scum priest, bringing back a Townie as their original alignment and role could be a form of Scum 'whoops'.  There is -no- proof of this, we've only seen one Scum priest use their power and that power 'worked right' by Scum standards.

notquitethere:

Imp
If Persus is a malicious 3rd party, scum-seer-Max would gain cache with the town in successfully outing him. Then, on the next day when they miraculously survive they can say their scum mate is good and then if believed they waltz home to victory. We clear now?

Why would Max fakeclaim seer just to get Persus lynched, the more I think about it, the less sense it makes.

Also, I'm confirmed town priest: Nerjin wouldn't have been brought back as town by a scum priest, you know that.

We clear now?  No Sir.  But I'll think about this all day.  I doubt that the group will agree to lynch you first - and I do think converter is unlikely - thus it's unlikely that you are a converter.  I'll take comfort in that.

About the 'piety' and success rates of Scum priests:  I say we don't know that, as well as -I- don't know that.  I do think it's would be strange, given that Town priests have a 50% 'good result rate': for a Scum priest to have a '100% success rate' - and to a Scum, bringing a Townie back as Town seems like a sort of bad result.  If that's not impossible, then that could explain a Scum priest having ressed Nerjin as he had been - a bad result.

For that matter, look at the role PM from the one Scum Priest that used his power previously (and was successful):

Orangebottle (werewolf)
    Once a devout holy man, you are now a Priest of the Lupine Cult. Once during the game you can attempt to resurrect a dead player. However, there is no guarantee that it will work properly. But if it does, you could gain a new ally, one loyal to the Wolf God.

If people feel this is not proof enough, lets ask for clarification:

Meph:  Are Scum priests 100% successful in resurrecting others to the Scum side?

[Mephansteras]

Meph:  Are Scum priests 100% successful in resurrecting others to the Scum side?

Resurrection is never a sure thing.

[Imp]

Hrm.  NQT, when you say:

If Max is a Seer (good or bad)

What do you mean by (good or bad)?  Do you actually mean Town or Scum, or are you talking about something like sane/insane (like cops can have in some games) or more specifically like a piety rating of sorts, that could give a Seer unpredictable results like resurrections can have?

[Tiruin]

I'd just like to ask, and in this brevity have to note that I'm up at 3am because of stuff related to dreams and bad things, on why NQT thinks voting Imp is a better idea than the case at hand between Imp/Persus and Max. Same goes for Imp and Persus given how the targets are spread out. Summarized. Because..err, the latest posts dictate an 'I want THIS GUY dead.' vibe instead of a 'convince me or persuade me' neutral vibe.

NQT: I want to see your main reasons behind why Imp > Max seems better in a list including any pros or cons - if there are situational things you want to add, put them in a different section. Address the matter at hand given how easy it is to branch out to speculation. It's a 2 for 1 vote -

I'm making a post but that's after other games post. All these..talk. Imp talks the most sense upon a skim but..yeah, re-reading.

Do you think her insistence that I might be a converter in a cult game has any merit?

Counter argument, hypothetical @NQT: If Max has no rational reason to fakeclaim Seer, then why is Imp falling alongside Persus in the counter-attack if she's scum?

A good question. Why would a rational scum-Imp want to discredit Max? Seer is the role the scum most want to remove from the game. If there are in fact two scum, Persus might also be scum. Or if there are two scum then maybe Max is scum (and Persus malicious 3rd party) and this is some weird bus to make Imp seem unimpeachable after the lynch. Can you see a logical reason for Max to fakeclaim seer? It's so easy to check!

@Bolded part: We only lynched 1 scum out, leaving 2 left given the number of people total and the given count (and yeah, I fairly doubt that the cult is a full-blown cult.

Jim says that if there's 11 players, the game'll have only two scum players. Thinking about it though, Meph might have put in three scum players if there's a really strong town (knight, priest, possible-seer, sorcerer?, hunter).

(@first paragraph: I'm checking back. But you claimed Priest. Given the # of scum and the possible converter thingy (of which is detailed below) I..doubt it. If one claims priest and counterclaims..ugh. Thinking later.
@second paragraph: I've highlighted a bolded portion that may be the case what I'm basing my thoughts on. Subjectivity. Whoever the target picks, or may pick in the future, would either have to be predicted [ie Predicting out who Max targets] and if Persus and Imp are aligned, then she's be risking a lot on that defense if Max flips town. While yeah, Max would be risking a lot if he was scum, in this situation there is:
1. A detailed (well, more detailed than what he gave as a night flavor action) night case present [Imp's Fortune Teller account]
2. Previous data (The hunter-flavor thing and notes on Persus being a Knight plus night action detail? That's on the forefront of my thoughts here.)
3. Night action detail.
...Yeah, this is just 1 reason broken down into its consituents. Max is lacking night action flavor while Persus & Imp do have flavor (and either Imp is making all that up very nicely and credibility is given to when it is due). I'm unsure but his only post after me asking him looks more genuinely rushed than intentionally rushed.

Max: Paraphrase that N2. Same with your N1 account.

A wildcard is who converts who but argh. I'm discarding that (meaning: pushing it aside for later) given how -and in retrospect thinking game mechanics is just a cheap play to go on for a player (>.>)- this is said to be a newbie friendly game. 49% of the otherwise says that if we're facing a cult--then we're in a huge amount of [Bad stuff] HOWEVER*. Given how many roles are claimed + data given (in which I'm leaning to believe Persus' knighthood given all the hilarity every other option makes [which means a total headache otherwise UNLESS Max flips town GIVEN two people risking their credibility on voting him AND how they detailed their lot]), and seeing my own role...erh, hence why I asked the massclaim in the first place. And even then, people also are unsure of whether the hunter himself is town or not but that in itself is a rather..intriguing idea.

*/What I'm saying is that there are lots of voices. But some voices seem to be speaking less on the whim of the moment and more of 'let's throw every darn situation out' instead of using empirical data to factor in what's happening. I think we have a cult (unless Meph is being silly with labeling CULT on things) but...yeah, rethinking the notes (I've thought 3 scum instead of 2) that we're facing 2 scum left-well, two at best, THREE at worst and one in the simplest happening [I mean by UNLESS the HUNTER was converted JUDGING by how there is a lack of NK BARRING any protects/redirects (of which I fall on protect more)] and given the notion of things, I doubt there is a full-blown cult. They're deadly. Annoyingly deadly [In which I get Imp's note on a Lone Witch and all] but I'm standing on why a similarity isn't mentioned if we're facing the same predicament.

And that there's an either/or kill/convert (theory) because:
1. If there's a cult, then why a cult and not vampire/whatever prefix cult--this strikes me as a difference that there is a mechanic limiting this kind of cult, in this kind of game. My thoughts were stuck on normal-game cult instead of how cult was featured in a Supernatural, hence my confusion on the earlier time between why people were shouting vampire + cult and whatnot.
2. Caz mentioned it. While it would be bad enough to believe his words, the repetition + evidence given by him would probably follow. He wanted to focus on vampire cult--I go against it and deconstruct the notion. Significant notes + the proceeding posts for that. ...And a Temple of Death. Maybe I'm over-analyzing..But still. Caz' thought train. It broke. Subtly.

If I'd be asked on why I did doubt cult (speaking: the convert-every-night CULT is what I think every time 'cult' was being said D2), it's in order of thought and..that thing, above.

tl;dr: I'm assuming we've a limited-in-a-way cult given how a 'cult' before was a vampire-flavor. Surely, there'd be characteristics/qualities granted to it. Here, we've a blank cult. A...pagan(?) cult (compare to D1, mostly has us [ok, well..me? Us.] guessing God.)

Personal redeeming note: There was an Exorcist before and I forgot all about it.

EDIT: Or we're just fooling ourselves that there is a cult at all given how THERE WAS A CULT BEFORE with the same format as how our cult is now (missing a prefix//normal scumteam). Though this does leave the 'special role' out and that game did have 12 players..ugh. [Did anyone link this before?!]

Toaster: Where did Caz rolefish again?

Imp: If you could so do the same for NQT as the first sentence I asked above of him, thanks (summarization of case) Just read most recent post. To be honest, I'm leaning more on your side--the redeeming factor on Max is that, he's sticking to what he said despite the ideas given and the stance. I don't know enough of him to judge his clarity [Max: I'd still love them paraphrased details on N1/2.]

Contrast this idea I got as I decided to head back to sleep or not and think about Mafia instead: If Max is scum, he's trying to kill the one thing that either their team (scum-hunter? Probable, but I don't think that's a reasonable idea given the basis at hand. In the least I can glean that Imp and Max aren't aligned (that'd be a Hel of a bus), and a huge misfactor is that the scumteam - considering they are a cult (though I doubt a full-blown cult instead of a ...well, thanks to the edit above (as in, 'think Supernatural!') scumteam) cannot logically waste their people..well, bussing at this point seems too detrimental, is the core concept.

@third paragraph: I've always thought this game had 12 people. Wow. Grah. Re-calculated, I'm..really re-thinking the lynch over. Given the converter state (we'd be facing 2 scum now, and it'd be LYLO [if 3 and in the other situation pre-edit = if all conversions were performed//there is a Cult) I'm falling in with a two scum left theory.
1. 2 NKs a night signify 1 being scum and 1 being cult - no other difference unless anyone is bold enough to counter facts on a broken in house + missing body, and large chest wound (hunter w/ sword)
> I do believe that cult must EITHER kill or convert. Doing otherwise would result in a very quick and emergency-ly lethal situation for town.
N1 - They converted. (total: 3)
N2 - They killed. (total: 2, Caz died).

IF we have a 2-man 'cult'. Ugh. I'll just Capitalize Cult for the conventional cult and not capitalize cult if we're talking about the cult in the edit.

Imp: What makes you think this 'cult' can convert?

I'm not claiming my role by the way. Given how I'm still damn unsure about things. No I'm not claiming until massclaim. I'm not the Hunter.

EXTEND

...So much for my brevity. I've left stuffs unchanged pre/post-edit.

[Tiruin]

EBWOP

Contrast this idea I got as I decided to head back to sleep or not and think about Mafia instead: If Max is scum, he's trying to kill the one thing that either their team (scum-hunter? Probable, but I don't think that's a reasonable idea given the basis at hand. If they converted the hunter...either way, I'm looking into who said what, and why given the thoughts of everyone else). // In the least I can glean that Imp and Max aren't aligned (that'd be a Hel of a bus), and a huge misfactor is that the scumteam - considering they are a cult (though I doubt a full-blown cult instead of a ...well, thanks to the edit above (as in, 'think Supernatural!') scumteam) cannot logically waste their people..well, bussing at this point seems too detrimental, is the core concept.

Finished the note in parenthesis and added the barrier where I missed my formatting. The double // signifies that everything after it is under knowledge of the thing in 'edit' while the one before it was pre-Edit.