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[Tiruin]

So I've been running some probabilities and to get a feel for the accuracy of the assumptions I'm making in my calculations I'd like to conduct a bit a poll:

Everyone: If you were a spy would you have lain low D1?

Nerjin:

Lenglon and GriffDay: What are you reads on EVERYONE please be concise but as detailed as possible.

May I wait to see the results of my poll first?

PFP

Aye. I would. Doubly so if the amount of people chatting up is equal to a null.

Lenglon, I'll get back to you soon. <3

Griffinpup: Why are you asking Lenglon questions she obviously can't answer and then calling her scum for deflecting?

To see how (she?) responds.

Yes she.

[Griffionday]

GriffionDay:
Shinigami said that he'd upvote my team.  Turns out he never voted, either way.  Would you of upvoted or downvoted my team? 

Downvoted, but I mostly say that because you pointing out NQT's potential communication led me to notice some other issues with his play.  I don't know what I would have voted were I playing then.

Well...  This is in no way vanilla or standard mafia.  Here it is logical to have a one or the other argument.  Let's say you're on mission one, a rebel, and there's a sabotage attempt.  One of the other people have to be a spy, correct?  In this situation it would be acceptable to take a "one of these two is scum" approach.

Wrong: 33% chance that it's the both of them if they communicated as you believe they did.

[griffinpup]

Well...  This is in no way vanilla or standard mafia.  Here it is logical to have a one or the other argument.  Let's say you're on mission one, a rebel, and there's a sabotage attempt.  One of the other people have to be a spy, correct?  In this situation it would be acceptable to take a "one of these two is scum" approach.

Wrong: 33% chance that it's the both of them if they communicated as you believe they did.

Umm... That was purely hypothetical...  And I'm right.  One of the two, if not both, of the other people on the mission are SPIES.

[Griffionday]

Okay, fair.

[Lenglon]

GriffPup: I agree fully with your case against NQT, but I don't understand why you were so coy with the evidence. could you please explain why you insisted on waiting to present it?

NQT: Do you have an explanation for the quote GriffPup pointed out?

[griffinpup]

GriffPup: I agree fully with your case against NQT, but I don't understand why you were so coy with the evidence. could you please explain why you insisted on waiting to present it?

At what point are you referring to here?  When I haven't decided whether to say anything or not, or after I decided?

[Lenglon]

GriffPup: I agree fully with your case against NQT, but I don't understand why you were so coy with the evidence. could you please explain why you insisted on waiting to present it?

At what point are you referring to here?  When I haven't decided whether to say anything or not, or after I decided?

here:

Griffinpup: It wasn't a threat. I just wanted to have the information to make my pick better. Why would you withhold information from the town?

Again, answering that question kinda defeats the purpose of withholding the information in the first place.  I have made a decision to present my case today or tomorrow, however, so you won't have to wait long.  Also, not telling you information isn't withholding it from the town.

Why the delay?

[Griffionday]

So it seems to be the general consensus that scum will lie low on the first mission, I was going to do a weighting thing to account for the probability of scum not laying low week one, but I think I'll not do so:

Firstly let me thank Darush for selecting a purely random team week 1, it makes my calculations much easier.

As we can't read anything into the success of the day one mission (in my opinion, it's in the spies' best interests to lay low week one assuming they are on the team, considering that ) we can assume the odds of there being scum week 1 is equal to the odds of scum being in any randomly selected three players.  This gives us the following:

Code: (Absolute Probabilities of Week 1) [Select]

# of Scum = 0: 17.8%
          = 1: 53.6%
          = 2: 26.8%
          = 3:  1.8%So there was an 82.1% chance of there being scum week one right?  Well no: the odds are actually even greater from my perspective (and conversly less from the perspectives of NQT, Griffinpup and Nerjin).  I know I'm not scum, (substitute yourself if you were not on the mission) which means the probabilities of week one are actually:

Code: (Passive Group Probabilities of Week 1) [Select]

# of Scum = 0: 11.4%
          = 1: 51.4%
          = 2: 34.3%
          = 3:  2.9%(if you were town and on the team:)

Code: (Active Group Probabilities of Week 1) [Select]

# of Scum = 0: 28.6%
          = 1: 57.1%
          = 2: 14.3%
          = 3:  0.0%So there was actually a 88.6% chance (71.4%) that the first group contained at least one spy.  Please note these are the odds for ANY randomly selected group, and as such selecting the same group for the second mission makes perfect sense.

Week 2 we know there was at least one scum.  Assuming the probabilities of this team are the same as a random distribution again this gives us the following probabilities:

Code: (Absolute Probabilities of Week 2) [Select]

# of Scum = 0:  0.0%
          = 1: 28.6%
          = 2: 57.1%
          = 3: 14.3%

Code: (Passive Group Probabilities of Week 1) [Select]

# of Scum = 0:  0.0%
          = 1: 20.0%
          = 2: 60.0%
          = 3: 20.0%

Code: (Active Group Probabilities of Week 1) [Select]

# of Scum = 0:  0.0%
          = 1: 40.0%
          = 2: 53.3%
          = 3:  6.7%
tl;dr: There was likely two scum on the second mission and possibly all three.

Just randomly selecting people as Daruish did means there is roughly a 1/4 chance of two scum being selected for the first mission (as apposed to 1/6 of there being no scum).
"Okay, that's nice but doesn't really help us find who the actual scum are." You quip.  I beg to differ actually: firstly the odds are very much in favor of there being at least two scum in the second mission group (80% from where I'm sitting) so the fact that only one voted is likely to have been caused by the spies figuring out how to communicate than shear luck.  This gives additional credence to griffinpup's theory about the spies having decided to communicate, and unless NQT has a REALLY solid explanation for why he would say such I'm convinced that he's scum.  The other point is that it's VERY hasty to dismiss the possibility of two spies being on the first team as Sheep did, it's substantially more likely that there were two spies than no spies.

Thoughts/Feedback?

[Dariush]

-snip-
The pertinent part is bolded and made huge.

So, you think that scum NQT somehow made an attempt to stealthily tell his scummates the order of voting, which was noticed by scum but ignored by all townies. Somehow. Having no guarantee that this will happen exactly this way (two exact people noticing, five exact people not noticing). A much likelier possibility is that you are a spy openly telling your scumbuddies in large bold text which scheme to use.

tl;dr: There was likely two scum on the second mission and possibly all three.

Just randomly selecting people as Daruish did means there is roughly a 1/4 chance of two scum being selected for the first mission (as apposed to 1/6 of there being no scum).

Huh. I remember calculating much better probabilities.

[Griffionday]

tl;dr: There was likely two scum on the second mission and possibly all three.

Just randomly selecting people as Daruish did means there is roughly a 1/4 chance of two scum being selected for the first mission (as apposed to 1/6 of there being no scum).

Huh. I remember calculating much better probabilities.

Well it's pretty close to certainty that you selected at least one scum.  I'm curious what your numbers are though.

[Griffionday]

Oh, and the poll is still ongoing, so if you've any qualms with my assumption that scum will certainly (100% of the time) lie low first night please let me know.

[Lenglon]

-snip-
The pertinent part is bolded and made huge.

So, you think that scum NQT somehow made an attempt to stealthily tell his scummates the order of voting, which was noticed by scum but ignored by all townies. Somehow. Having no guarantee that this will happen exactly this way (two exact people noticing, five exact people not noticing). A much likelier possibility is that you are a spy openly telling your scumbuddies in large bold text which scheme to use.

Dariush: the hell is this? please, explain how you'd call out someone on being scum communicating to other scum that doesn't involving pointing out where they communicated and what they communicated.

[TheWetSheep]

-Short post-

Griffionday: I wouldn't lie low. Also, you're not taking into account the possibility that scum are messing with your poll.

[Tiruin]

PFP - am working on recent posts.

Rereading everything.

Shinigami/Griffday - probably a Rebel, nothing suspicious of signifigance
Ranger/Sheep - probably a Rebel, nothing suspicious of signifigance
NQT - Spy, Pup still has 8 hours to explain before I make a case on him.
Tiruin - likely Spy, suspicious vote pattern + unusual emotional read
Dariush - possible Spy, seemed to know the week 2 team was going to be sabotaged before it happened.
Nerjin - possible Rebel, was on the failed team, but is giving off a Rebel vibe.
GriffPup - possible Rebel, he's consistantly taken an aggressive stance, and his tactics have been pretty upfront and made sense quote consistantly. however I really want an explanation for why he's withholding information. I saw it too, and I still don't understand why it should be hidden. the damage is done already.

Interesting reads.

NQT is a spy because...? I think I missed the reasoning due to my focus on Remuthra, but how do you see him?

Dariush is a possible spy for prediction? How does that make sense? Requesting a link, ma'am, and thanks in advance.

Nerjin for..being on the failed team seems like a token against him, but he's a rebel vibe...How? What defines a rebel vibe, and what defines a spy-y vibe?

On me: I'd like to ask on how you see the vote pattern according to my explanation on it, and the use of the term 'likely' as opposed to what you use on the rest. An unusual emotional read isn't confirming, but it seems like more of an influence here. What do you see that leans me on the spy scale?

Also on that introduction post, I'm feeling something vague stuck there when you try to reinforce your predecessor's place, but that may be just my intuition hitting a false-positive. Going to re-read on every bit again.

-Short post-

Griffionday: I wouldn't lie low. Also, you're not taking into account the possibility that scum are messing with your poll.

How isn't he? I don't see how he could've missed the cheesy fact that 3 people are misinforming, while the rest are searching to be informed. Or 4..forgot how many spies were there. Have to check on that note later.

Why wouldn't you lie low? That's seemingly a trivial deal to explain.

[Lenglon]

NQT is a spy because...? I think I missed the reasoning due to my focus on Remuthra, but how do you see him?

Spy because of the quote GriffPup pointed out as primary evidence, his general wishy-washyness and suchlike just reinforces it.

Dariush is a possible spy for prediction? How does that make sense? Requesting a link, ma'am, and thanks in advance.

You know, I would prefer to stay off the team. Too many people have unanonimously agreed to put me on instead of Remuthra (three people, Cado is absent and I am obviously not there). This leads me to believe that a spy has lied low on the first mission and will sabotage the second, thus implicating me. I realize that the same logic may apply to whoever goes in my place, but... hell, I don't want it to be me. The end.

Nerjin for..being on the failed team seems like a token against him, but he's a rebel vibe...How? What defines a rebel vibe, and what defines a spy-y vibe?

It's an emotional read, and I have trouble putting those in words. He's been... steady? solid? in any case, I haven't seen him attempting to manipulate in ways that feel like he knows something I don't. being on the failed team is a token against him, the read is counterbalancing it for now. I'm reconsidering it though because NQT wouldn't have needed to say something like that if there weren't two spies in the initial team, leaning me towards replacing Dariush with Nerjin on my hypothedical spyteam. still not sure about that.

On me: I'd like to ask on how you see the vote pattern according to my explanation on it, and the use of the term 'likely' as opposed to what you use on the rest. An unusual emotional read isn't confirming, but it seems like more of an influence here. What do you see that leans me on the spy scale?

Day 1: vote against team containing a scumteam member, gain townie points for when it fails. even as a spy you would'nt know that the other spy/spies is/are going to lie low. Day 2: same action, same plan. Day 3: (strongest evidence, the other two are pretty weak, and simply reinforce my theory) you vote up for a team containing two of the people that were on the failed mission, including NQT who is pretty much certainly a spy.

speaking of which, why are you so hesitant to explain why you did that?

Also on that introduction post, I'm feeling something vague stuck there when you try to reinforce your predecessor's place, but that may be just my intuition hitting a false-positive. Going to re-read on every bit again.

the vague problem with it is Past Me acted unacceptably, and there's only so much rationalizing I can do for that. If it weren't for the fact that I have Past Me's role PM, then I'd have a tough time accepting the fact that Past Me was a true-hearted rebel too.
GriffPup: you missed a question from earlier btw:

GriffPup: why did you vote up a team containing NQT and yourself when NQT was on the team that was sabotaged?