Print

Please login or register.
1 Hour 1 Day 1 Week 1 Month Forever
Login with username, password and session length

[Lord Shonus]

We are not in the mid-20th century. Standards of what is acceptable in a war and what isn't are different now. Believe it or not, turning a city full of civilians into rubble by indiscriminate artillery barrages and carpet bombings are not OK.

Not least due to the accuracy and power of modern weapons. Targets that once required a thousand bombers to destroy now can be wiped out by a single salvo from a single vehicle. That's only part of it, though.

In most of WWII Europe, the damage to civilian infrastructure was primarily caused by having to go town to town digging out a stubborn conqueror. It is far too likely that Ukraine will have to visit such destruction on her own cities to regain freedom, but that's not what Russia is doing.


The rest of it was done to Germany itself, as the world responded to an aggressor by applying overwhelming force  to annihilate their ability to continue to wage war. That would be done differently today and with far less collateral damage, but it would still be defensible. That's also not what Russia is doing.

Late in WWII, when it was clear the war was lost and the German Army was being purged from France one town and city at a time, Hitler allegedly issued an order to burn Paris and the other great cities that the Reich still held to the ground out of a belief that European civilization deserved to die rather than surrender to the "untermenschen". Such an order would be entirely consistent with fascist ideology, but if issued it was not carried out - supposedly the generals in charge feared they'd be lynched if they did so and fell into Allied hands. THAT is the closest WWII analogy to what Russia is doing.

[anewaname]

@EuchreJack

Spoiler (click to show/hide)

With the talk about the damaging of civilian infrastructure, I'd like to point at what happened in Europe during WWII. In all areas where there was fighting, there was massive damage to civilian infrastructure.

I'm not condoning or saying it was unintentional, but am saying this is what happens in war. And, I would context it as "the war is the crime and many of the actions taken during the war are the result of ignorance, fear, and anger, which are responses to the insanity of being involved in a war."

Some of the Ukrainians will do things to Russians that they have believe Russians did to Ukrainians. Should these be compared as similar crimes?

In all cases, the Russian government and nation, in whatever form it takes after the war, is fully responsible for the war, even if there is a "new" Russian government that claims the previous one has been destroyed.

Uh...NO
At least to the first two paragraphs.

The outrage is that Russia is targeting civilian targets far away from the fighting in retaliation for Russia's losses.
My outrage at YOU is that this has been going on for the entire war, so I would have thought you would know better by now.

We're not talking "Ordinary War" but rather "Ordinary War Crime".

This is probably the kindest response you will be getting to that comment. It's certainly nicer than what I had originally written.

This...

Let me state the fucking obvious: during WW2 civilians were obviously delliberatedly targeted. Particularily by the Germans and Russians but far from the only ones.

...because every war in the last hundred years has a public story about good guys and bad guys and a rarely-told story about the civilians who lived where the war was fought. In all of those wars, the civilians were decimated several times over and their homes and infrastructure destroyed.

I know how I would respond to being a participant in a war... don't you know how you would respond? But you are not one of the people that would start the war, or encourage the starting of it... I'm not either.

Right now in Russia, there are multiple narratives being started about "resistance in Russia to their leadership"... That smells like some of the oilgarchs are attempting to create a new government. My point in the original post is that:

In all cases, the Russian government and nation, in whatever form it takes after the war, is fully responsible for the war, even if there is a "new" Russian government that claims the previous one has been destroyed.

@Strongpoint

Spoiler (click to show/hide)

With the talk about the damaging of civilian infrastructure, I'd like to point at what happened in Europe during WWII. In all areas where there was fighting, there was massive damage to civilian infrastructure.

We are not in the mid-20th century. Standards of what is acceptable in a war and what isn't are different now. Believe it or not, turning a city full of civilians into rubble by indiscriminate artillery barrages and carpet bombings are not OK.

Also, we are talking not only about random strikes. We are talking about deliberate attacks on train stations during a publicly announced evacuation, supermarkets, and power stations with precise weapons. Now Russians damaged a dam in an effort to flood a city. They did it with 8 high precision cruise missiles, deliberately spending millions of dollars on this "noble goal".

Some of the Ukrainians will do things to Russians that they have believe Russians did to Ukrainians. Should these be compared as similar crimes?

*breathes in and breathes out to avoid going full F-word sentences*  "Believe Russians did?" IT IS A DAMN FACT. Now, with significant areas liberated, we find graves and torture chambers every damned day. We hear horrifying stories of survivors.

Ukrainians aren't doing this. UNDERSTAND? No, I am not naive. I understand there are sporadic executions (and even torturing) of POWs... And some collaborators got... really unlucky. But it is not by orders from high-ranking officers. Individual war crimes always happen in a war. Especially when the other side went full ethnocide mode.

Don't you dare to use "Ukrainians and Russians are both..." in any damned context.

Above all else, I hate war.

I believe that Russians have been committing those atrocities. I would have believed it even if evidence was not there. Every prolonged war/special-military-action has atrocities involving murder and torture, including all those in the last ten years. The publicity changes, but the activities remain the same.

I also believe the Ukrainian refugees redirected into Russia are destined for slavery of one sort or another. I don't need to see "facts" to believe this... history is full of burning cities and civilians being herded down the road.

I do not believe there are standards of acceptable warfare that survive war.

War is what happens when the conversation is dropped and the weapons are raised. The various "rules of war" were made during the time of the conversation, not during the time of the war. During war, people forget who they are and why they are. Their morals... their morals disappear.

What happens if Ukraine completely removes Russian forces from Ukraine, including Crimea, but is unable to invade Russia due to diminished global support? There are Russians who created and supported the war but never left Russia; can they be extradited and tried as war criminals? If left in Russia, will they use their power to isolate Russian civilians from the world, like North Koreans are isolated, so that all trade into Russia goes through them?

Will Western countries continue the "global good guy" narrative and allow Western political representatives to publicly take over the role of reparations to Ukraine, with all the potential for corruption to occur in backroom deals that will primarily benefit select groups of Ukrainians and Western companies?

[Strongpoint]

What happens if Ukraine completely removes Russian forces from Ukraine, including Crimea, but is unable to invade Russia due to diminished global support?

Ukraine celebrates victory, fortifies borders, and starts making diplomatic efforts (likely mostly futile) to get reparations and bring war criminals to justice. There is no unable here. There is completely unwilling.

[Strongpoint]

What happens when you try to make a force made of convicts (aka Wagner mercenaries) and professional protestor beaters (aka Russian Police) and they meet in a hotel during rotation after having their asses kicked in Ukraine

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1570770758682677255

I want to see episode 2, in which more Wagner guys will come to the hotel.

[JoshuaFH]

Do you know what they're fighting about?

[Strongpoint]

Do you know what they're fighting about?

Nope, all that can be heard is the Wagner guy saying (using many Russian curse words) that his guys will soon come.

[EuchreJack]

What happens if Ukraine completely removes Russian forces from Ukraine, including Crimea, but is unable to invade Russia due to diminished global support?

Ukraine celebrates victory, fortifies borders, and starts making diplomatic efforts (likely mostly futile) to get reparations and bring war criminals to justice. There is no unable here. There is completely unwilling.

I fully anticipate Russian and Ukrainian border clashes long after the War ends.

Now, the second part of the question is more interesting:

There are Russians who created and supported the war but never left Russia; can they be extradited and tried as war criminals? If left in Russia, will they use their power to isolate Russian civilians from the world, like North Koreans are isolated, so that all trade into Russia goes through them?

I don't predict a North Korea situation.  Russia is too big and too rich for that.
The end of the War will make winners and losers in Russia's Elite.
The Winners will remain the Winners, and try to reopen foreign trade to they can make more money.

The Losers will get all the blame, and a few of them might even be turned over to the international authorities as scapegoats.
Basically, those in the middle of the Losers faction. The highest ones, like possibly Putin, will either be killed internally, "allowed" to flee to some safe country that lacks extradition, or tentatively cling onto some power as figureheads.
The lowest ones will either die or defect en-masse.

If the West needs Russian blood to reopen trade, don't be surprised if the Russians have people to sacrifice.

I'll also mention the War isn't done yet.  These are the scariest days when desperate men do desperate things.

EDIT: I changed the topic name to make it easier to differentiate from the News thread.  We're not as formal about such things these days due to the overall maturity of the forum, but try to keep News Reports in the News Threads and Idle Speculation to This Thread.

[Strongpoint]

I fully anticipate Russian and Ukrainian border clashes long after the War ends.

I fully anticipate that this war, in one form or another, will go on for decades. Or until Russia will cease to exist.

[Great Order]

Or Russia's government is overthrown and the people in charge want to consolidate power rather than focus on a war, or it breaks into civil war so foreign war seems a bad idea.

Not likely, but you never know.

[Strongpoint]

Or Russia's government is overthrown and the people in charge want to consolidate power rather than focus on a war

Overthrown Russian government changes little. A huge majority of Russians have the ideology that Ukraine doesn't exist (or should not exist) and this means that the war will continue. It may merely temporarily deescalate. Russian culture, as it is, is incompatible with Ukraine.

It also works in another direction, millions of Ukrainians are now confident that Russia must cease to exist or our children will also have to wage war against a genocide attempt. At the very least, any anti-Russians movement or country will receive non-governmental support.

[Lord Shonus]

Unless something monumental changes, Russia won't be able to repeat this war. Even assuming Ukraine never joins NATO, it is extremely likely that they'll be armed with first-line Western equipment five years from now. Even if Western governments have to subsidize the cost, it would be a rounding error compared to the effects of this conflict on the global economy.

Ukraine's been fighting this war with Soviet leftovers (decent, if used correctly, but the only real option for spare parts and ammunition is battlefield capture at this point - anything they can get from other countries has been sucked up), their own indigenous production (quite good, but almost as hard to get supplies for), and a small subset of Western gear (essentially, anything that requires very limited retraining and logistics support). As is, the largest cap to what the West can provide is that anything more complicated needs a ton of support infrastructure, maintenance training, and operator training. Sooner or later, the front will be stabilized enough that providing that investment will become a "now" thing rather than a "later".

[EuchreJack]

On the other side, Russia has burned through vast portions of their massive stockpile of equipment that they spent the entire Cold War building in.....six months.

[Strongpoint]

Russia will still have oil (read money). Russia will still have its own defense industry. Western sanctions will weaken it somewhat but so what? Iran produces its own weapons despite decades of sanctions.

Russia will rebuild its army. And Russia will still have nukes making it immune to stuff like having their infrastructure bombed away by modern airforce. And economic, propaganda and terrorism wars are also types of wars.


Let's also not forget that Ukraine will face economic, social, demographic, and many more crises. The simple fact is that Russia hurt us way more than we can possibly hurt it. It hurt us more than Western sanctions hurt it. If you define victory in war as hurting your enemy more than they hurt you... Ukraine can't win.

[EuchreJack]

Ukraine pretty much has to rebuild vast portions her country from scratch, no doubt on that.

Joining NATO would probably be the best case scenario, since those NATO solders want infrastructure, entertainment, etc.

[Strongpoint]

Murdered can't be "rebuilt"... kidnapped children are unlikely to be returned... many refugees won't come back after finding new life abroad... Mentally traumatized people can't be fully cured... Even our land itself will take so long to restore after war-related ecological damage...

Destroyed property is the least of our concerns.