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[Strongpoint]

I still fail to understand what is the Russian long-term plan at this point. They simply can't win. Even if they'll reach a major success like an encirclement and destruction of Ukrainian forces in Donbas, then what?

Sure, losing ~30-50K of our best troops would be a major blow sure but it won't make Ukraine surrender. Not after it became obvious that the goal is a genocide.

[EuchreJack]

Russia/Putin needs something else to distract the Russian people before they can call off the war, or they look weak.
Weak dictators are dead dictators.

Russia's long-term strategy is probably:
1) Re-organize and push hard now, maybe that will work
2) Reduce the intensity of the conflict to more manageable levels (on Russia's side).
3) Conscript dissents to die in Ukraine
4) When next global crisis hits to distract everyone, re-evaluate

[nenjin]

Another $800M in military aid to Ukraine from the US, along with (an unspecified amount of?) more economic assistance money. Biden is going to request another $1.3B appropriations supplemental.

Russia is about to learn why the US has no universal healthcare.

"While you developed healthcare... I STUDIED THE BLADE
While you maintained your roads... I STUDIED THE BLADE
While you pursued vain equality and education... I BLADED THE BLADE

Now the barbarians are at the gates and you have the cheek to ask me for help?
Thank god, I was worried it was going to go to waste"

As much as I chuckled....you know this is the position some in this country actually take. The kind of people who watched "A Few Good Men" too many times and took away the wrong message.

1) Re-organize and push hard now, maybe that will work

I feel like this is Russia's only real plan. The sunk cost fallacy. They've come this far, they basically have to commit to an all-out offensive to win. Nothing else is really going to suffice, not after all this bullshit. They simply cannot retreat because pride and ego. And on the other side, there's political fallout, potential war crimes and no return to normality for Russia if they don't achieve what they said they were going to.

[MaxTheFox]

As I said several times before, Ukraine needs to keep fighting to the last. Take back Crimea and yeet the separatist republics. Not only is it their rightful land, that's also how you get Putin to fall. I believe in you guys.

[nenjin]

I really don't see how Ukraine can both defend their country and then push back into territory Russia has controlled for years. They just need to withstand this.

[EuchreJack]

I really don't see how Ukraine can both defend their country and then push back into territory Russia has controlled for years. They just need to withstand this.

It makes perfect sense if you see war like this:

Me - Frontline - Them

So by pushing my frontline into the enemy, I no longer have to defend, for the enemy has to push through my advancing army in order to get to my stuff.
...war doesn't exactly work like that.  But hey, it is a theory.

The real question is how much support will the locals in the Seperatist Republics and Crimea give to Ukraine.  There were at least a few folks who backed Russia for a reason in those regions.

[Strongpoint]

As I said several times before, Ukraine needs to keep fighting to the last. Take back Crimea and yeet the separatist republics. Not only is it their rightful land, that's also how you get Putin to fall. I believe in you guys.

Very few people in Ukraine will support a costly offensive into Crimea. which is militarized to hell. Moving in so-called republics is possible but even then I fail to see Ukraine initiating major urban combat i Donetsk, Luhansk, Horlivka or other big cities. Not mentioning that we need quite a few major victories before going on offensive of this scale.

Our plan is to win the war of attrition against Russia. With Western help

[MaxTheFox]

Doesn't seem feasible right now, yeah, never said it is. But the Russian army is dwindling by the day. You're well on your way to attrition them to death.

[martinuzz]

I hope these 90 extra heavy howitzers the US is sending (instead of the initialy agreed 12) are able to rain death on a lot of Russian troops.

[Lord Shonus]

Those howitzers also come with more shells than the intended lifespan of the barrel. I suspect they'll have plenty of death for everyone.

[EuchreJack]

My guess is the political purge over there is officially underway, or if not then soon.

There's also something going on with Russian oligarchs suddenly committing suicide. Six have died so far since the invasion began.

The sanctions appear to be working.  The two most recent oligarchs are the guy who made his money selling Oil to the West, and the guy making money from one of the major banks. 
I tend to believe they were in fact murder-suicides because they saw their assets shrinking away.
However, getting killed by Putin because they told him to end the war and their losses is also a distinct possibility.
The slaughter of family could be committed by an egotist knowing they were unable to continue providing them the ultrarich lifestyle, or government retaliation.
After all, you wipe out your enemy's families so that no survivor can challenge you later, and to send a message.
50/50?

[heydude6]

It disturbed me greatly that so many of these parents seem willing to brutally kill their children. My first reaction was to just assume they were Epstein cases, but one of them was a literal locked-room mystery. Either Putin is working very hard to hide his involvement in these murders or Russians really are this fucked.

[EuchreJack]

It disturbed me greatly that so many of these parents seem willing to brutally kill their children. My first reaction was to just assume they were Epstein cases, but one of them was a literal locked-room mystery. Either Putin is working very hard to hide his involvement in these murders or Russians really are this fucked.

The scary part is the escalation. They go from Oligarchs hanging themselves to Oligarchs and their family being stabbed.
At least some of that has to be Putin.

As for the locked-room mystery:
1) Nobody mentioned the windows.
2) It is easy to perpetuate a locked-room mystery if the police are in on it.

It is also possible that the shooting was done by the Oligarch because he knew his family was about to be brutally stabbed like the others.  You have to imagine these Oligarchs know more about the brutality of the inner circle than the outside world.

[heydude6]

2) It is easy to perpetuate a locked-room mystery if the police are in on it.

That implies the Spanish police are working with Putin. How deep does this Russian corruption go? Can't just be Spanish vigilantes cause that doesn't explain the other deaths.

[scriver]

The locked room was in Moscow I believe.

How do you even know if a place is "locked from the inside" anyway?