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[Lord Shonus]

I've been doing a big thunk. One thing I've been most intrigued by is how the end of all of this will appear. The Ukrainians evidently want to secure a peace where Russia withdraws totally from the nation, Crimea & East Ukraine included. Putin may settle for a token victory where Russia continues to occupy Donetsk, Donbas & Crimea; something which would at the very least ensure he doesn't get decapitated by his own cronies.

The Ukrainian army has thus far done a stellar job of defending, with grit, ATGMs and bayraktars. Yet to secure the kind of peace deal their leadership desires, they need to do more than hold onto defensive positions - they need to attack. I think the thought experiment for me at least is not whether the Ukrainians will launch a counter-assault, but when they will do it, and what that will look like. Will this result in the largest tank battle in European history since WWII? Or will we see a new form of warfare, as was witnessed in the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict?

It isn't nearly as publicized as the territorials and militia on defense with Western weapons (not least because the Ukranian Army has been maintaining very good operational security), but their tanks have been smashing shit up for a while now. Multiple videos exist of UA tanks taking out Russian vehicles with gunfire, and they were at the spearhead of the counteroffensives that have rolled up the northern front and are now on the brink of liberating Kherson in the south. They're already counterattacking aggressively.

How it will go in the east is difficult to say. The "breakaway republics" are not super defensible, but Crimea itself is, and they'd be going right into the teeth of whatever Russia has left. So far, we haven't seen much sign that Russia can stop them, but this will be where they are strongest, and where the remaining Russian Air Force is concentrated. So the deciding factor is likely to be how well Ukraine brings up their heavy SAMs, how well they manage to use their MANPADs, and if their 20 new planes have enough pilots to actually contest Russia directly in the skies.


Oh, and Ukraine supposedly has 20 new planes in action, because a big shipment of parts from US allies have allowed them to get a large number of damaged/out of service fighters back into action. They're also receiving first-line artillery from the US and the Netherlands, the US ones coming with more shells than the service life of the barrel. Tanks, type and source not specified, are also supposed to have been shipped in. This means that when the great counterattack begins, it will be far stronger than it would have a month ago.

[Il Palazzo]

But again, I ask you, where is your line?

I don't know. Not here.

[Madman198237]

It is important to note that the Ukrainian Army is losing a lot of vehicles. Their armored vehicle losses may be comparable with documented Russian losses; though do note that those Russian losses are likely not fully accurate because it requires the lost vehicle be accurately photographed by someone willing to break operational security before, say, a Ukrainian ARV grabs the thing for recovery or something. So the eastern front may not be fully reported-on with regards to Russian losses, and the Ukrainians are smart enough not to let everyone know how much stuff they've lost.

How it will work now that the Russians have refocused and it is more of straight slugging match...we will see. Hopefully the fact that Russia can no longer manufacture most advanced weapons and Ukraine is being bankrolled by pretty much everyone will cause Russia to finally lose a war of attrition.

Ukraine reclaiming Donbas and such might, MAYBE, happen, Ukraine reclaiming Crimea is a pipe dream but stranger things have happened, and have happened recently.

[Quarque]

When Putin talked about "denazification", I interpreted it as "rounding up anyone who doesn't love Putin."

I vaguely recall news about Russian soldiers checking the phones of civilians to see if they had been anti-Putin and killing them if they did. In any case, my impression is that the aim is to kill people based on their political views, rather than based on their ethnicity. The first word that came to my mind was "great purge" rather than "genocide". Of course that doesn't make it any better.

[Lord Shonus]

https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-ukrainian.html

https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html

This is the rundown of hard confirmed equipment losses by both sides. This only tracks vehicles where it is 100% certain that they are unique events, and does not include "we know they lost this but the wreck wasn't photographed yet" (which results in a few big spikes in the data when the front moves and there's suddenly a lot more wrecks getting imaged), "I don't know what the hell this used to be" shrapnel, or "something blew up, but no proof what or whose" situations. With photo evidence being ironclad, these are reasonable floor figures. In the big lists, every entry has a link to the photo of the loss, and the people behind it will remove anything proven false.

The floor figure is:
Ukraine - 866, of which: destroyed: 393, damaged: 22, abandoned: 35, captured: 416

Russia - 3044, of which: destroyed: 1615, damaged: 48, abandoned: 243, captured: 1138

Not going into the details - you can look at the linked source if interested, but confirmed figures show Ukraine's net losses (factoring in captures) at -272, and Russia's vehicle losses at 2,628. Now, Ukraine is maintaining good opsec, so there is no question that they're losing more than we know about. The same is almost certainly true of Russia. But if you assume we know about every single Russian loss, Ukraine would have to be hiding the destruction of 2900 vehicles to have parity, and there's nothing to suggest that big a gap. If nothing else, Russian propaganda would be parading something just to counteract the narrative that they're losing badly.

[Strongpoint]

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1516981728300179457

Some cute denazificators

[Strongpoint]

Contrary to popular perceptions, shaped by the Holocaust and Rwanda, perpetrating genocide does not require large numbers of victims. The intent and logic of targeting are the key. The 1948 U.N. Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide defines genocide as “acts committed with intent to destroy, in whole or in part, a national, ethnical, racial or religious group.”


If one doesn't see a deliberate intent after Russian State-owned newspaper publishes an article that openly calls for a destruction of Ukrainian Nation by "liqudating" elites and "reeducating the rest", If one doesn't see the intent after forced departarion of children. If one doesn't see the intent after. Putin DECORATED the unit committing mass murders... It is pointless to argue with such person

[Starver]

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1516981728300179457

Some cute denazificators

Almost everything in that photo screams Prettyboy Cosplayers... I'm not militarily-trained, in any way, but if they're supposed to be actual fighters on the way to the 'front' they've definitely chosen the "Vogue photoshoot" option over "we mean business". (The phrase "daddy's credit-card" also comes to mind, if that's not wildly inappropriate.)

If they are indeed trained fighters, then obviously I'd have no chance if they actually came gunning for me for whatever reason. But I've already said I'm not militarily-trained. The best of Ukrainian luck to them, if they're actually more trousers[1] than mouth and go what they say they will... And I mean that most sincerely!


[1] I tend to favour cargo-pants myself, for various practical reasons, but at least I know their limitations!

[Loud Whispers]

Spoiler (click to show/hide)

It isn't nearly as publicized as the territorials and militia on defense with Western weapons (not least because the Ukranian Army has been maintaining very good operational security), but their tanks have been smashing shit up for a while now. Multiple videos exist of UA tanks taking out Russian vehicles with gunfire, and they were at the spearhead of the counteroffensives that have rolled up the northern front and are now on the brink of liberating Kherson in the south. They're already counterattacking aggressively.

I always suspected as much; it seemed a bit odd that all of the Ukrainian footage was of light infantry and jets, but nothing of their armour and self-propelled guns

Spoiler (click to show/hide)

How it will go in the east is difficult to say. The "breakaway republics" are not super defensible, but Crimea itself is, and they'd be going right into the teeth of whatever Russia has left. So far, we haven't seen much sign that Russia can stop them, but this will be where they are strongest, and where the remaining Russian Air Force is concentrated. So the deciding factor is likely to be how well Ukraine brings up their heavy SAMs, how well they manage to use their MANPADs, and if their 20 new planes have enough pilots to actually contest Russia directly in the skies.
Oh, and Ukraine supposedly has 20 new planes in action, because a big shipment of parts from US allies have allowed them to get a large number of damaged/out of service fighters back into action. They're also receiving first-line artillery from the US and the Netherlands, the US ones coming with more shells than the service life of the barrel. Tanks, type and source not specified, are also supposed to have been shipped in. This means that when the great counterattack begins, it will be far stronger than it would have a month ago.

One thing I think worth noting is just how many of the Eastern republic militia have been forcibly recruited against their will. In the face of a serious counter-offensive significant portions of the Russian defence line is liable to just surrender because they don't want to die for a cause they don't share

[Starver]

Ok, I'll just double-post to bring my response to this one over... Ah, good, no longer doubled.

Putin has ordered his troops to cancel storming the Azov steel factory. Instead, he has ordered that it be hermetically sealed off from the outside world "in a way that not even a fly can go in or out".
Looks like he wants to starve those that are sheltering there.

Russia usually does the opposite of what it says so... IMO, assault is coming soon

PS. mistook this for the secondary thread

No plan survives contact with the enemy, they say. I interpret it as yet another failure for Russia to do what it thought of as easy to accomplish.

So now we see how the "no, perhaps we won't make our troops quickly learn how tunnel-warfare works" turns it into a more hermetic siege. And/or requires their forces to withdraw a bit (probably not enough!) so they can lob earthquake-munitions onto the area and try to reduce the awkward waiting time a bit as they collapse some of the 'refuge' network. It makes me wonder how much this plan will change, though.



(I have some little knowledge of steelworks. Not surprised that one has been found to be so defensible.)

[brewer bob]

Contrary to popular perceptions, shaped by the Holocaust and Rwanda, perpetrating genocide does not require large numbers of victims. The intent and logic of targeting are the key.

The closest example might be the Bosnian War (1992-1995) and the Srebrenica massacre of 8,000 Bosniak Muslim men, which was ruled as genocide. However, according to the ICJ, the Serbian state couldn't be held responsible for it, but it was ruled that Serbia had failed to prevent genocide and punish the perpetrators.

[scriver]

I think there's a point to consider, but I don't have the data to draw a conclusion from it. But I'm going to make it anyway and propose it with a few statements.

1. There are Ukrainians and Russians. These are separate peoples.
2. There are Ukrainian and Russians living in Ukraine. Both can be citizens of Ukraine. Being a citizen of Ukraine does not automatically make one a member of the Ukrainian people and likewise being a citizen of Russia does not automatically make one a member of the Russian people.
3. Whether or not one wants to be ruled by Russia is irrelevant to whether one belongs to a people or not.
4. Putin's government have made it evident that they do not believe Ukrainians exist, and that they intend to destroy the very idea of a Ukrainian folk-identity.

It is therefore to me clear that Putin would, if he had conquered Ukraine like he wanted, have begun to commit genocide.

I'm saying that first because I wanted to make that clear before I get to the point.

What we're seeing now is an extremely brutal and tyrannic invasion, that's uncontestable. But for the actions of the generals and soldiers to be genocidal in themselves there would be some kind of way for us to tell thst they're specifically targeting members of the Ukrainian people with their cruelty, and making an effort to spare members of the Russian people. If they are just massacring and vicgimising people without regards to their people, it's not genocide.

And like I said up top, I don't have the data to make a conclusion about that. So no, technically it might not be a genocide (yet). But it's also clear that Russia has genocidal intentions in Ukraine.

[Strongpoint]

Another $800M in military aid to Ukraine from the US, along with (an unspecified amount of?) more economic assistance money. Biden is going to request another $1.3B appropriations supplemental.

Russia is about to learn why the US has no universal healthcare.

[EuchreJack]

Another $800M in military aid to Ukraine from the US, along with (an unspecified amount of?) more economic assistance money. Biden is going to request another $1.3B appropriations supplemental.

Russia is about to learn why the US has no universal healthcare.

While funny, the US technically has its own backward neo-capitalist version of Universal Healthcare.  It is actually why I can't file my taxes!

[Loud Whispers]

Another $800M in military aid to Ukraine from the US, along with (an unspecified amount of?) more economic assistance money. Biden is going to request another $1.3B appropriations supplemental.

Russia is about to learn why the US has no universal healthcare.

"While you developed healthcare... I STUDIED THE BLADE
While you maintained your roads... I STUDIED THE BLADE
While you pursued vain equality and education... I BLADED THE BLADE

Now the barbarians are at the gates and you have the cheek to ask me for help?
Thank god, I was worried it was going to go to waste"