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Author Topic: Mostly Vanilla Mafia 3 (Game Over): Lessons Of Mob Mentality  (Read 111139 times)

NJW2000

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Re: Mostly Vanilla Mafia 3 (R3, Day 4): Final Four
« Reply #1065 on: October 27, 2021, 02:57:37 pm »

ok, unvote, this was just a trick I was trying to play on Tric
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NJW2000

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Re: Mostly Vanilla Mafia 3 (R3, Day 4): Final Four
« Reply #1066 on: October 27, 2021, 02:58:15 pm »

It's either Toony or Tric/TOony, but they both have goddamn guns now. The issue is that one is a 50% gun
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NJW2000

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Re: Mostly Vanilla Mafia 3 (R3, Day 4): Final Four
« Reply #1067 on: October 27, 2021, 02:59:33 pm »

Thus there's a chance I can put them in a bad situation tonight. It's like 25% but it's a possibility that I can redirect the main kill and the 50% will fail.

Learn self-control with the goddamn red text.
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NJW2000

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Re: Mostly Vanilla Mafia 3 (R3, Day 4): Final Four
« Reply #1068 on: October 27, 2021, 03:11:17 pm »

I know you're fucking town Vector, jesus christ. It's not difficult. The issue is that we're potentially against a two-person scumteam. toony and tric. toony is scum. Tric is most likely scum. This is a problem. If I offered mafia what looked like a 100% win, they might take it over 75% - "fire both guns tonight". So I tried to look like I'd give them that.

Are they going to take a 100% win that you're handing them now? Yes, if Tric is online.


You'll have hammered town twice and made the losing vote this game if you keep that vote there. Just let that sink in.


But go on. My attempt to go from a 25% chance of winning to 50% or better is going to backfire, apparently. At least that lets me stop playing.



Complete lack of self-control and OMGUS votes not even for a vote. A fine way for town to lose such a stupid game.
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NJW2000

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Re: Mostly Vanilla Mafia 3 (R3, Day 4): Final Four
« Reply #1069 on: October 27, 2021, 03:39:43 pm »

In the extremely unlikely event that the game doesn't end with my flip, just let me note that I have compelling evidence that Toony shot Web. I can't deflect the scumkill back onto the person doing it, which was why my deflection failed. And I wasn't told about it, because the deflection "not occuring" is different from me "not deflecting".

If you actually get a chance to use this information, town has a 50% chance of a win, at best. But pretty sure FoU wouldn't do mafia + mafia ally in this setup. It'd be very weak. So... probably just a matter of waiting for Tric to get online and take advantage of Vector's complete lack of impulse control.
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Vector

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Re: Mostly Vanilla Mafia 3 (R3, Day 4): Final Four
« Reply #1070 on: October 27, 2021, 04:25:44 pm »

You can always ask me or Toony to unvote. I’m sorry, but  negotiating via  insults and threats is not going to do a lot.
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NJW2000

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Re: Mostly Vanilla Mafia 3 (R3, Day 4): Final Four
« Reply #1071 on: October 27, 2021, 04:34:11 pm »

Well ok then. Please do unvote, I am 100% sure Toony is mafia and pretty sure Tric is too. I think Tric may hammer at any point in order to win the game.

I have now recieved confirmation that I would not be told about it if the deflection failed because it would have created a self target. If you think that's ridiculous, fair enough, but I assume it's in there as a stalemate breaker or something. I apologise for suggesting you might be scum as a ruse. Let's see if Tric will allow a Toony lynch. I suspect not, and that we're going into the night with a 75% chance of losing, but I don't know for sure.

So again, please unvote. I'm not going to bother asking Toony to unvote, as he is mafia, and so probably won't do as I request.
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TricMagic

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Re: Mostly Vanilla Mafia 3 (R3, Day 4): Final Four
« Reply #1072 on: October 27, 2021, 04:35:11 pm »

Panicky much? And yes, I will shoot you or toony, if we get the wrong person.

Killing Vector would have been the smart play, but open up to a 3 person standoff. Killing Toony would make it NJW. The opposite is also true.

Funnily enough, if it is Toony he couldn't target Vector. Otherwise I would have died last night. The same doesn't hold if it's NJW. So that's likely why there was no kill.

This is also the final nail in the coffin of Vector's mafiahood. As in we can confirm via Toony's result that Vector did not have a gun N1 if he got a positive result off of me. So I now hold one of these 50/50 guns I can use tonight. A coinflip's chance of victory, but one nonetheless.


Also, sorry Roden. But with your role flipped, we can confirm your actions.

Vector>Roden=Watcher Invention.
Toony>NJW(Interrupted by Roden)
Roden>TricMagic=Repel shield.
NJW>Web=Deflection

This is the current claims today. Notice something off in them?
Why exactly are you panicking? And no way I'm voting till some talk is done.



....
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Vector

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Re: Mostly Vanilla Mafia 3 (R3, Day 4): Final Four
« Reply #1073 on: October 27, 2021, 04:35:40 pm »

Unvote, FOS NJW
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"The question of the usefulness of poetry arises only in periods of its decline, while in periods of its flowering, no one doubts its total uselessness." - Boris Pasternak

nonbinary/genderfluid/genderqueer renegade mathematician and mafia subforum limpet. please avoid quoting me.

pronouns: prefer neutral ones, others are fine. height: 5'3".

Vector

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Re: Mostly Vanilla Mafia 3 (R3, Day 4): Final Four
« Reply #1074 on: October 27, 2021, 04:36:36 pm »

Yeahhhh…. Tric is town. Obviously. If you can read him.

It’s either Toony/NJW or just Toony.
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"The question of the usefulness of poetry arises only in periods of its decline, while in periods of its flowering, no one doubts its total uselessness." - Boris Pasternak

nonbinary/genderfluid/genderqueer renegade mathematician and mafia subforum limpet. please avoid quoting me.

pronouns: prefer neutral ones, others are fine. height: 5'3".

NJW2000

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Re: Mostly Vanilla Mafia 3 (R3, Day 4): Final Four
« Reply #1075 on: October 27, 2021, 05:34:15 pm »

Oh, ok, Tric either Town or messing with us very hard. Gotta assume the former.

Well then, it's Toony. As for Vector... yeah, it's incredibly unlikely that they're scum with Toony at this point.

So there's really just one mafia... ok, that's pretty weird. Could be a very odd situation with mafia-allies... but I figure they'd have hashed out who their partners are.


Panicky much? And yes, I will shoot you or toony, if we get the wrong person.

Killing Vector would have been the smart play, but open up to a 3 person standoff. Killing Toony would make it NJW. The opposite is also true.

Funnily enough, if it is Toony he couldn't target Vector. Otherwise I would have died last night. The same doesn't hold if it's NJW. So that's likely why there was no kill.

This is also the final nail in the coffin of Vector's mafiahood. As in we can confirm via Toony's result that Vector did not have a gun N1 if he got a positive result off of me. So I now hold one of these 50/50 guns I can use tonight. A coinflip's chance of victory, but one nonetheless.


Also, sorry Roden. But with your role flipped, we can confirm your actions.

Vector>Roden=Watcher Invention.
Toony>NJW(Interrupted by Roden)
Roden>TricMagic=Repel shield.
NJW>Web=Deflection

This is the current claims today. Notice something off in them?
Why exactly are you panicking? And no way I'm voting till some talk is done.



....
Yeah, I panicked pretty hard. And posted with a regrettable tone, I'll admit. I don't regret the panicking though, I was pretty sure you/Toony were the scumteam, and thought mafia were about to hammer for game. I really don't pretend to be good at reading you, I genuinely thought you were mafia.



My role, in more detail:

So, turns out that my deflection fails if I'd make someone target themselves, and the mod doesn't tell me that this happened. This is why I spent D3 theorizing about nonsense like bus drivers and mafia deflection-strongmen. And also why I didn't really engage with Roden's post about how someone had to be lying about what happened in the night - I thought that he had a weird interference power, or mafia had something hidden up their sleeve, or so on.

I should have checked this earlier, I'll admit, but it was just a possibility I completely failed to see. It is weird that I get less reliable information whenever I deflect, but in this specific case I get to know who performed the kill, but that's the way FoU has it.

I targeted Toony, so it has be Toony that did the kill. There's no other way through my deflection without actually mucking with my action, and I'd get told about that.

Welp, Vector was completely right, it's just Toony. And not Tric. Which feels crazy.
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TricMagic

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Re: Mostly Vanilla Mafia 3 (R3, Day 4): Final Four
« Reply #1076 on: October 27, 2021, 05:41:06 pm »

I'll let Toony tear your case to shreds. Cause that's all that's going to be left after he's done.

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NJW2000

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Re: Mostly Vanilla Mafia 3 (R3, Day 4): Final Four
« Reply #1077 on: October 27, 2021, 06:01:53 pm »

I'll let Toony tear your case to shreds. Cause that's all that's going to be left after he's done.
I mean... is there a reason you're not going to try that yourself? Because you seem to enjoying that sort of large-scale analysis, and things would go faster if I could answer any obvious questions sooner rather than later.
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ToonyMan

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Re: Mostly Vanilla Mafia 3 (R3, Day 4): Final Four
« Reply #1078 on: October 27, 2021, 09:12:40 pm »

I am back and full of chicken gyros.

@Vector:
Toony: Why are you unconcerned about Tric having a gun?
Should I be? I'm glad you were able to give a gun to Tric as this means Tric can shoot NJW if you mislynch me. I don't believe NJW can self-target their deflection...at the very least it should raise town's win rate by 50% no matter what happens.

NJW is the killer.
It’s either Toony/NJW or just Toony.
Which is it Vector? I refuse to lose to NJW who is openly being scum in front of me.



@NJW:
So there's really just one mafia... ok, that's pretty weird. Could be a very odd situation with mafia-allies... but I figure they'd have hashed out who their partners are.
The game would have auto-ended if there were two mafia, there's only four people left.

Yeah, I panicked pretty hard. And posted with a regrettable tone, I'll admit. I don't regret the panicking though, I was pretty sure you/Toony were the scumteam, and thought mafia were about to hammer for game. I really don't pretend to be good at reading you, I genuinely thought you were mafia.
None of this makes sense, mafia would have already won if there were two alive still. It's just you.

My role, in more detail:

So, turns out that my deflection fails if I'd make someone target themselves, and the mod doesn't tell me that this happened. This is why I spent D3 theorizing about nonsense like bus drivers and mafia deflection-strongmen. And also why I didn't really engage with Roden's post about how someone had to be lying about what happened in the night - I thought that he had a weird interference power, or mafia had something hidden up their sleeve, or so on.

I should have checked this earlier, I'll admit, but it was just a possibility I completely failed to see. It is weird that I get less reliable information whenever I deflect, but in this specific case I get to know who performed the kill, but that's the way FoU has it.

I targeted Toony, so it has be Toony that did the kill. There's no other way through my deflection without actually mucking with my action, and I'd get told about that.
You never deflected Web to me on N2 did you? You shot Web and are trying to frame me by explaining some unique made up case where your deflection wouldn't work.

I've been speculating today while walking around at the park and I think I know how N2 went down.

Your mafiakill is only on even-numbered nights, isn't it? We have no reason to believe a kill happened on N1 or N3. And the mafiakill must be special like multi-tasking, as Roden targeted you with Repel or Rolestop instead which caused my action to fail, or you have a second ability that is a part of your factional kill. This information would not show up on Webadict's captain flip.

Welp, Vector was completely right, it's just Toony. And not Tric. Which feels crazy.
Why does it feel crazy?



@Tric:
I'll let Toony tear your case to shreds. Cause that's all that's going to be left after he's done.
Vector would have to agree or else we're going to end with a tie/no-lynch today.

I will be writing up more of NJW now that I'm home.
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Vector

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Re: Mostly Vanilla Mafia 3 (R3, Day 4): Final Four
« Reply #1079 on: October 27, 2021, 09:32:24 pm »

I tried to check Vector but targeted Tric instead who came back positive but I don't find that alarming.

I'm asking why you didn't find this alarming. You posted before me.
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"The question of the usefulness of poetry arises only in periods of its decline, while in periods of its flowering, no one doubts its total uselessness." - Boris Pasternak

nonbinary/genderfluid/genderqueer renegade mathematician and mafia subforum limpet. please avoid quoting me.

pronouns: prefer neutral ones, others are fine. height: 5'3".
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