I think there's going to be a lot of contested elections in several states. So I would prepare for a lot of uncertainty for a few weeks afterward at a minimum.
Which, depending on political goals, some might count as a win. One the best ways to "prove" to the public that democracy is broken is to fuck up the execution of it so bad that the ability to govern soundly breaks down. When daily governance breaks down enough, people start acting in ways they "have to." Both at the citizen and elected official level, those are the noises people will start making. And whoever is in power when they declare that the system has broken down is now ruling by default.
It's like, forget these people actually getting elected to office and undermining democracy. They can do that just by slowing down and snarling the whole election process. AZ in 2020 was a preview I think of what we're going to see across several states. It was like 60 lawsuits from Trump for the 2020 elections. Imagine 100. 150. 200.
Just watched a Last Week Tonight on this so it's all pretty fresh in my head.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y0LA7Ff2hgsRepublicans are basically benefiting from two basic outcomes of the elections, and they're ensuring it by packing the election machinery in states with as many sympathizers as possible. Also possibly those willing to break the law to win.
Outcome 1: Their candidates win. Whether legitimately or because of fuckery, that's an outcome they want.
Outcome 2: The election is so mangled and the process so riddled with suits and counter-suits that it take a year? to certify many states. Incumbents continue on in the interim. The public loses interest and starts to think that the vote is "all just bullshit anyways." This is an outcome that Republicans would also call a win condition.
Outcome 3: We have a fair election, candidates get elected "like they're supposed to" based on the current districting make up. Republicans consider this a loss because it's not total victory and some crackpot that didn't win majority support didn't get elected.
Like, think about the environment of Republican poll workers or officials sabotaging or misreporting the results, refusing to investigate and/or falsifying the results of their own investigations. That would put Democrats in the position of having to allege fraud and a stolen election....which they just spent the last cycle debunking and still 61% of Republicans believe it happened. (Anyone remember Bush v. Gore?) If every election going forward has either side passionately or factually asserting fraud occurred, then public confidence in elections get eroded and people stop paying attention. And the people fighting to keep democracy on the rails (I.e. election commissioners and people still willing to obey the law) eventually give up. It's kind of diabolical when you get down to it.
You have to start thinking about these things in terms of what would the most desperate and the least moral actor would do. Kind of the classic "Evil always wins because it's willing to do things good would not" theme. That's what fills me with anxiety. At the end of the day, it feels like Republicans have less distance to go to transform the reality of electoral politics compared to the distance Democrats have to prevent it.
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