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[Telgin]

It's a somewhat distant fear, but I'm more concerned of the more realistic possibility that Trump will lose, refuse to accept the results, and a bunch of angry Trump fanatics with guns organize into mobs that end up in shootouts while Trump is removed from office.  Not civil war levels of chaos, but people dead for stupid reasons.

I want to believe Trump will lose and I know of at least 3 friends who changed their mind about him over the last few years, but I just don't know that the country learned enough as a whole.

[MetalSlimeHunt]

Which reminds me...how are the flying death squid coming along? Given that NC is quite likely going to be the closest race in the country, I might need a few of those soon.

I'll be the oil rig exile at this rate.

I think a lot of the nailbiting on the Left is because of what happened in 2016. The polls and the election results were considerably out of alignment, and I have many friends who handwave off what I've just posted because they no longer trust any polls. But 2016 was a much closer race. Nationally, Clinton only lead by 2.1 points on Election Day. A full 14 states were deemed too close to call. Currently, Biden has a 7-point lead nationally, and as I pointed out, only six states are truly within margin of error (and Michigan and Pennsylvania are on track to pass into safer waters before long, which would effectively seal the deal).

The problem with polling isn't that they're wrong, but that other factors select more strongly for some results than the polls themselves. Chief among them being voter suppression and in this case the Electoral College. I also think there's evidence that regression to the mean occurs right before some elections, people's indecisiveness coming out I suppose. My current bet is on a Trump EC win but popular loss.

Or the fear that I'm hearing now is "Trump will lose but won't leave, and nobody will do anything about it" which is so very not true. If this whole summer has shown us anything, it's that people will go out and do something about it.

Sure, if Trump is just like "nah" he might get removed, but that's not what he'll do. It'll be Bush v. Gore on steroids, possibly involving SCOTUS or possibly not. In the (admittedly unlikely) event the GOP takes Congress it's a sure thing, they'll just verify him as President by a line vote because "all the Democrat illegals voting make the election illegitimate". There'll be invocations of Unitary Executive Theory, creative interpretations of Article 2, Trump's private security occupying DC, terrorism by Trumpists "restoring order", etc.

The exact form of this doesn't really matter because it won't be legal regardless, instead being shaped by the circumstance and opportunity of election week. It'll just have the appearance and interpretation of legality backed up by the death-fear of all that Boomerism ever was and ever will be. It's not even deep down about Trump (who is too cowardly to do this on his own), but the rightist apparatus which has bestowed Trump a living godhood and their final drops of confidence before they finish devouring the Earth. To stop having Trump be President is nothing less than shattering the thesis of the last 60 years of American commitment to world dominion and conservative revolution - it's something much stronger rooted than it appears.

Against this, the Democrats will do nothing. They'll whine, they'll cite, they'll accept, and maybe they'll even be arrested and vanished. What they won't do is exercise material power, because they're not supposed to do that. That's the Republicans' job.

Since we're doing electoralism, here's my intuitive prediction. Popular vote of about 50% Biden/48% Trump.

[Zangi]

I think the other thing rattling the nerves of many on this side of the yawning gulf that is America, is just 2020 in general. This year has been a continuous series of disasters, so there's a temptation to say "Well of course Trump will win, that would be 2020 in a nutshell." Or the fear that I'm hearing now is "Trump will lose but won't leave, and nobody will do anything about it" which is so very not true. If this whole summer has shown us anything, it's that people will go out and do something about it.

I think it is more accurate to insinuate that our political/legal/military apparatus will do nothing about it.  The individuals who would might just catch a bullet with their head before that announcement.

[Reelya]

Oh ffs

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/16/holocaust-us-adults-study

Almost two-thirds of young American adults do not know that 6 million Jews were killed during the Holocaust, and more than one in 10 believe Jews caused the Holocaust, a new survey has found, revealing shocking levels of ignorance about the greatest crime of the 20th century.

According to the study of millennial and Gen Z adults aged between 18 and 39, almost half (48%) could not name a single concentration camp or ghetto established during the second world war.

Almost a quarter of respondents (23%) said they believed the Holocaust was a myth, or had been exaggerated, or they weren’t sure. One in eight (12%) said they had definitely not heard, or didn’t think they had heard, about the Holocaust.

The survey, the first to drill down to state level in the US, ranks states according to a score based on three criteria: whether young people have definitely heard about the Holocaust; whether they can name one concentration camp, death camp or ghetto; and whether they know 6 million Jews were killed.

The top-scoring state was Wisconsin, where 42% of millennial and Gen Z adults met all three criteria, followed by Minnesota at 37% and Massachusetts at 35%. The lowest-scoring states were Florida at 20%, Mississippi at 18% and Arkansas at 17%.

Eleven per cent of respondents across the US believed that Jews had caused the Holocaust, with the proportion in New York state at 19%, followed by 16% in Louisiana, Tennessee and Montana, and 15% in Arizona, Connecticut, Georgia, Nevada and New Mexico.

[Maximum Spin]

Don't worry, they're just fucking with you. Those are the generations that love lying on polls, especially if they can say something offensive.

[delphonso]

This reminds me of the Russian survey that had over half of young adults saying Stalin was the best leader they'd ever had.

EDIT: Voting update - after about 3 weeks, I have been emailed my absentee ballot. I just need to vote, sign, and then mail it to the US. Sending it via email is not an option in Wisconsin, apparently.

[Starver]

Sending [...] email is not an option in Wisconsin, apparently.

I thought that was just a viciously patronising stereotype!

(Don't worry, your homeland got top (good end) slot in that Holocaust Awareness thing, just above. NY gets "caused it" top billing, though? Either that's their classic sense of droll humo[u]r, incarnated as described, or there's something wrong with the state with an fairly sizable co-mingling jewish presence (at least in the city, alongside the other multiculturalities that surely can't be entirely ghettoising themselves). No idea about how up-state would skew it, of course. I'm just happy enough to remember there is an up-state before I make myself look even more stupid.  )

[delphonso]

I think the most frustrating data there is "7/10 believe neo-Nazi fews are not acceptable."

Who the fuck are they surveying? Only people with shaved heads?

[Dostoevsky]

Don't worry, they're just fucking with you. Those are the generations that love lying on polls, especially if they can say something offensive.

Survey itself is here -- it looks like the "Who or what do you think the holocaust" question was open-ended, which... I'm not sure makes it better or worse? Does make me think about that 1% who answered FDR, though.

Note that the '23% believe false/exaggerated' isn't quite accurate. It's 3% false, 12% "greatly exaggerated," 8% "not sure." Still not great, but less bad?

But hey, 91% of people are familiar with Hitler. That's brand recognition!


In other news, apparently the US Air Force has confirmed the design, development, and flight of a new prototype fighter craft. This would be potentially a competitor to the hilariously-inept F-35, which is a good thing, but considering that we have no details but this confirmation who's to say if it's actually any good at the whole aircraft thing.

Also interesting about this (and what the linked article spends most of its time discussing) is the potential changes to their design & development process, shifting from long-term support for craft to more rapid iteration and replacement of models.

All that said, I find it rather amusing that they're naming this after the 'century' series of US combat jets, seeing as those were pretty bad fighters the product of inflexible decisionmakers.

[Bumber]

"I think Speaker Pelosi is one of those people who tried Tide pods" -Senator John Kennedy

XD

[wierd]

"I think Speaker Pelosi is one of those people who tried Tide pods" -Senator John Kennedy

XD

With more full context, this was in a Sean Hannity interview, and immediately after, these lines were dropped.

“She is threatening to keep the House Democrats in session and prevent them from going home and running for reelection unless the Senate Republicans agree to the speaker’s $3.4 trillion coronavirus bill,” the Republican continued.

“On the one hand, we can vote for Pelosi’s $3.4 trillion bill, or we can agree to allow her to put the House Democratic majority into jeopardy. That’s just bone deep down to the marrow foolish,” he added.


So, basically--

"HOW DARE she insist that we actually DO OUR JOBS and see that our constituencies get financial relief from the now nearly-year-long coronavirus economic deathspiral!  EVERYONE knows that getting Re-elected is the most important-est thing ever!!"


He feels that preventing the democrats from campaigning will give republicans a windfall, and there might be some truth to that; on the other, it just takes a few well targeted attack ads and some endorsement spots for Democrats, highlighting how the Republicans prioritized campaigning over financial relief, while the Democrats did the opposite-- given that an absurd number of people are financially under the thumbscrews right now.

[MetalSlimeHunt]

It would be nice if all the Congressional GOP members were absent during a vote...

[wierd]

Seeing them get roasted by some well targeted attack ads would be cake too.

"Senator Kennedy was far too concerned about getting re-elected, and stonewalling relief for millions of Americans, to continue to sit in a chair and work towards a compromise on the relief bill. He even went so far as to suggest that the speaker of the house, who has been working relentlessly toward the goal of getting needy americans the support they need, had been eating laundry detergent.  The facts speak for themselves; Senator Kennedy is all washed up."

or something similar.  This is not hard to write.

[Lord Shonus]

In other news, apparently the US Air Force has confirmed the design, development, and flight of a new prototype fighter craft. This would be potentially a competitor to the hilariously-inept F-35, which is a good thing, but considering that we have no details but this confirmation who's to say if it's actually any good at the whole aircraft thing.

Also interesting about this (and what the linked article spends most of its time discussing) is the potential changes to their design & development process, shifting from long-term support for craft to more rapid iteration and replacement of models.

All that said, I find it rather amusing that they're naming this after the 'century' series of US combat jets, seeing as those were pretty bad fighters the product of inflexible decisionmakers.

Any new fighter would be for the F-15/F-22 replacement program - there's no chance at all of it replacing an aircraft that is already in mass production. Despite all the fuckups in the procurement program, the F-35 is an extremely capable and cheap (final unit cost is less than latest-model F-16 fighters despite having the bloated development costs tacked on to it) system of aircraft. The least capable model (the VTOL model intended for Britain,Japan, and the Marines to fly off of baby carriers) can still outperform the F/A-18s that are the Navy's current front-line aircraft (and also cost less). The stories of the F-35 sucking are a mixture of clickbait nonsense and early kludgy data produced by the hellaciously stupid development process.

As for the Century Series, those were quite good aircraft for their era and desgned role as super high-speed interceptors. They performed poorly when used outside of that role, but most things do.

[Dostoevsky]

I've read enough trade press and (non-classified) congressional reports to have a feeling that as a fighter it's less capable than some prior-gen aircraft - though I get it's meant to be a 'jack of all trades' aircraft instead of a dedicated platform and such flexibility counts for a lot more than the pithy phrase. And, of course, it hasn't actually yet had to perform that sort of role (thankfully; I'm not looking forward to the next conflict big enough to have open air combat).

I'm more referring to the function problems - a few of these pretty major.

• The F-35’s logistics system currently has no way for foreign F-35 operators to keep their secret data from being sent to the United States.
• The spare parts inventory shown by the F-35’s logistics system does not always reflect reality, causing occasional mission cancellations.
• Cabin pressure spikes in the cockpit of the F-35 have been known to cause barotrauma, the word given to extreme ear and sinus pain.
• In very cold conditions — defined as at or near minus 30 degrees Fahrenheit — the F-35 will erroneously report that one of its batteries have failed, sometimes prompting missions to be aborted.
• Supersonic flight in excess of Mach 1.2 can cause structural damage and blistering to the stealth coating of the F-35B and F-35C.
• After doing certain maneuvers, F-35B and F-35C pilots are not always able to completely control the aircraft’s pitch, roll and yaw.
• If the F-35A and F-35B blows a tire upon landing, the impact could also take out both hydraulic lines and pose a loss-of-aircraft risk.
• A “green glow” sometimes appears on the helmet-mounted display, washing out the imagery in the helmet and making it difficult to land the F-35C on an aircraft carrier.
• On nights with little starlight, the night vision camera sometimes displays green striations that make it difficult for all variants to see the horizon or to land on ships.
• The sea search mode of the F-35’s radar only illuminates a small slice of the sea’s surface.
• When the F-35B vertically lands on very hot days, older engines may be unable to produce the required thrust to keep the jet airborne, resulting in a hard landing.

It looks like they've been... partially? addressed, though are still pretty significant.


Anyhoo, House Democrats certainly aren't above putting work to the side for campaigning if they feel it's needed, but they can read the tea leaves and see that staying in is the more politically savvy thing for them to do (for now).