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Author Topic: Paranormal 25 - Game over! Town victory!  (Read 81269 times)

doll

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Re: Paranormal 25 - Day 3 brings no sign of Spring
« Reply #405 on: February 18, 2017, 04:42:29 pm »

Tech trading isn't as much of a confirmation as doll seems to think it is. There are hostile alien roles, and doppelgangers could pass on tech if they're in contact with an alien.
By all accounts he still has both a medium and a small tech slot.
Only operatives, Exterminators, Hiveminds and Xenozoo's have medium tech.
Only operatives independently have both medium and small tech.
Either you are proposing that TDS's extended team has multiple aliens with different wincons working together to clear TDS, or he's an operative.
I rather doubt that TDS is an exterminator operative.
Thus, if he has both a medium and a small tech, TDS is probably an agent operative.

I agree that his claim was atrocious.

I'll post this now because 4mask got in while I was making a longer post
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hector13

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Re: Paranormal 25 - Day 3 brings no sign of Spring
« Reply #406 on: February 18, 2017, 04:45:14 pm »

DA

I like your case against me there. OMGUS much?

Hector:
Alrighty then. Got a bit more time to read through things than I expected to get today.

So, without too much preamble, I think Deus Asmoth is scum.

DA has kept on TBF since D1, but hasn't actively tried to push a case against him since then. Arguably didn't even do it then, TBF's just "anti-town". I would've thought that someone who has been sure enough of someone's scumminess since D1 to vote for them until scum made a bad slip would be pushing for all they're worth to get that person lynched.

As webadict pointed out, it's a bit bizarre how he can vote TBF for two days, and then suddenly start defending him on D3.

[thinkingoutloud]Unless something happened on N2? Which in itself doesn't make sense since his last post on D2 was him defending his "TBF should be lynched" position, so why wouldn't it have happened N1 instead?[/thinkingoutloud]
There's a fair bit of bull here, so let's get to it.

DA has kept on TBF since D1, but hasn't actively tried to push a case against him since then. Arguably didn't even do it then, TBF's just "anti-town". I would've thought that someone who has been sure enough of someone's scumminess since D1 to vote for them until scum made a bad slip would be pushing for all they're worth to get that person lynched.
This is interesting for a couple of reasons. Firstly because you FoS'ed me during Day 2 precisely for maintaining a case on TBF and are now claiming that I wasn't pushing enough to get them lynched. Secondly, you seem to have forgotten that you tried to pull me up over calling TBF scummy during day 2. Thirdly because you seem to be ignoring the possibility that what happened during Day 2 may actually have influenced my reads on him.

Maintaining is not actively pushing for lynching someone, which is why I pushed you about your reasoning behind TBF's scumminess.

You re-voted TBF with your first post of D2, said "still scum" and moved on. Why were you not trying to encourage people to vote for him, since your read persisted through the night?

As webadict pointed out, it's a bit bizarre how he can vote TBF for two days, and then suddenly start defending him on D3.
I was voting for TBF during D1 and at the start of D2. I might as well reiterate that something happened during Day 2 that could have caused me to reevaluate my read on him. And if asking someone for the reasoning behind their arguments against someone counts as defending the second person, sure. I'm defending TBF then, I guess.

Fair enough.

[thinkingoutloud]Unless something happened on N2? Which in itself doesn't make sense since his last post on D2 was him defending his "TBF should be lynched" position, so why wouldn't it have happened N1 instead?[/thinkingoutloud]
Or something could also have happened during D2. And my last post during D2 was defending the reasoning behind the position I took during D1, since you were asking me about it at the time.

Speaking of that post, it's strange that we're nearly 48 hours into the day and you haven't made any response to it yet, since you had FoS'ed me over my opinion on that post during D2. Yet your vote for me today is just parroting the reasoning of Doll and webadict.

What's to respond to?

The post is, in order of paragraphs: your opinion on third parties + maintaining your case; maintaining your case x 2; conflating experience with ability; maintaining your case and forgetting my position is "it's TBF's meta"; asking my opinion on a related topic.

Since your case was TBF was anti-town, and I said that's his meta, I didn't particularly think a long argument - the essence of which I anticipated as "I'm right, your wrong" on both our parts - would be particularly fruitful.

I'm comfortable saying doll is town. webadict is probably town. That's probably why I mis-attributed doll's comments re: your defense of TBF to webadict.

4mask

hector13: You're tunneling really hard into DA today.  Regardless of my personal opinion of him, your case is rather shaky: DA's big post yesterday was defending why they'd been trying to get TBF lynched prior to the reveal that RattyB was scum, and was written in the past tense.  I know this because I've reread it a couple of times because is struck me as odd too.  What I found was that they didn't state their opinion of TBF at the moment in that post, just why they had voted him previously.  While the shift in tone is sudden, the simplest answer is "TBF getting Ratty lynched changed DA's mind".  Is there more to your case than just the focus on TBF by DA?

In addition to my reads on doll and webadict above my reads are:

Tiruin is town. 4mask is probably town. TDS is probably town. Persus isn't scum. TBF probably isn't scum.

This leaves DA and Leafsnail. Process of elimination has essentially given me my two scum-picks, and doll and webadict have expressed interest in lynching one of them.
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4maskwolf

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Re: Paranormal 25 - Day 3 brings no sign of Spring
« Reply #407 on: February 18, 2017, 04:47:34 pm »

Shorter version of analysis I did
Point of order here: aliens can trade down a tech slot for two slots of the lower class, so him having a medium and small tech item doesn't necessarily rule out exterminator.  It's still something to keep in mind, but if he's an exterminator who isn't killing and is giving us good information then hey, let's save him for last, since if he has both medium and small tech we can't prove he's not an operative until all the scum are lynched.

doll

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Re: Paranormal 25 - Day 3 brings no sign of Spring
« Reply #408 on: February 18, 2017, 04:57:05 pm »

Point of order here: aliens can trade down a tech slot for two slots of the lower class, so him having a medium and small tech item doesn't necessarily rule out exterminator.  It's still something to keep in mind, but if he's an exterminator who isn't killing and is giving us good information then hey, let's save him for last, since if he has both medium and small tech we can't prove he's not an operative until all the scum are lynched.
As far as I am aware that is only true (re: trading down tech) in the sense that the replicator exists.
You are correct, he could be a full exterminator. The existence of exterminator operatives means that an exterminator can have small tech without the replicator, anyway.
If exty kills start turning up, we can lynch the claimed alien. If they don't, we don't need to.
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doll

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Re: Paranormal 25 - Day 3 brings no sign of Spring
« Reply #409 on: February 18, 2017, 05:00:54 pm »

Unlikely, because there are better and safer fakeclaims, especially if he consulted with his team before claiming as you're suggesting in your post.  Even when you consider that RattyB is new, most people take the simplest option available to them, especially if they don't have the experience to do something riskier, and reporter is a very risky fakeclaim if you don't actually have one on your team.
This is WIFOM.
The idea that a scenario is unlikely because it requires scum to have made a mistake, and thus shouldn't be pursued heavily contradicts the simple fact that most scum hunting is waiting for scum to make a mistake.
In scenario three you even give TBF making a mistake as an option, yet here you are leery of extending the same thought to RattyB's scumplay.

Deus Asmoth
Outside of Hector, who's scum right now?
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4maskwolf

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Re: Paranormal 25 - Day 3 brings no sign of Spring
« Reply #410 on: February 18, 2017, 05:14:49 pm »

Point of order here: aliens can trade down a tech slot for two slots of the lower class, so him having a medium and small tech item doesn't necessarily rule out exterminator.  It's still something to keep in mind, but if he's an exterminator who isn't killing and is giving us good information then hey, let's save him for last, since if he has both medium and small tech we can't prove he's not an operative until all the scum are lynched.
As far as I am aware that is only true (re: trading down tech) in the sense that the replicator exists.
...huh.

I could have sworn I read that in the OP back in Paranormal 24, but I can't find it in either that one or this one.  Whoops.

Unlikely, because there are better and safer fakeclaims, especially if he consulted with his team before claiming as you're suggesting in your post.  Even when you consider that RattyB is new, most people take the simplest option available to them, especially if they don't have the experience to do something riskier, and reporter is a very risky fakeclaim if you don't actually have one on your team.
This is WIFOM.
The idea that a scenario is unlikely because it requires scum to have made a mistake, and thus shouldn't be pursued heavily contradicts the simple fact that most scum hunting is waiting for scum to make a mistake.
In scenario three you even give TBF making a mistake as an option, yet here you are leery of extending the same thought to RattyB's scumplay.
The scum clearly made a mistake in this scenario: for Ratty to claim at all was a mistake.  He had a couple votes on him due to general play, but there was no pressure to claim and it was still early in the day.  What he claimed was a mistake because it got immediately countered by two different people.  However, there's a difference between "making a mistake" and "keeping it simple".  As was noted by Persus earlier, scum generally try to keep things simple: there's less of a chance of getting caught out in a lie when you lie as little as possible.  To claim reporter is a bizarre violation of keeping things simple and the reasons why it was done bear looking into.

Leafsnail

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Re: Paranormal 25 - Day 3 brings no sign of Spring
« Reply #411 on: February 18, 2017, 05:22:22 pm »

TDS hasn't actually tech traded yet. Can we agree that if he doesn't tech trade as soon as possible he's scum and should be lynched?
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doll

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Re: Paranormal 25 - Day 3 brings no sign of Spring
« Reply #412 on: February 18, 2017, 05:30:52 pm »

TDS hasn't actually tech traded yet. Can we agree that if he doesn't tech trade as soon as possible he's scum and should be lynched?
Yes, absolutely.
The day ending without tech being traded (if tech trading is a day action) is only acceptable if the day ends with a TDS lynch.

It's a pretty unlikely scenario that TDS's claim isn't legitimate, though.
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Leafsnail

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Re: Paranormal 25 - Day 3 brings no sign of Spring
« Reply #413 on: February 18, 2017, 05:41:27 pm »

The tech trading rule is pretty obscure, I don't think it would be too strange for a dopp to overlook it.
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TheDarkStar

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Re: Paranormal 25 - Day 3 brings no sign of Spring
« Reply #414 on: February 18, 2017, 07:32:13 pm »

Alright, now I've had a chance to read stuff.

So first, how exactly does tech trading work? Can it be done during the day?

Actually: Mephanstras: Can tech be traded during the day?

It does seem that it can be traded multiple times per phase, as the rules mention only being able to get one use out of it.
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Tiruin

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Re: Paranormal 25 - Day 3 brings no sign of Spring
« Reply #415 on: February 18, 2017, 08:24:08 pm »

Alright, now I've had a chance to read stuff.

So first, how exactly does tech trading work? Can it be done during the day?

Actually: Mephanstras: Can tech be traded during the day?

It does seem that it can be traded multiple times per phase, as the rules mention only being able to get one use out of it.
Weird. :O
Quote
Alien Tech can be passed between players as long as both players agree to the trade. This must be done via PM. Tech can be used the night it is passed, but can only be used by one person per night (if it is a multi-use item).
It doesn't say 'alien requisite tech' [anything only specific to race], but it means more of a designation (ie These tech is alien made), and in comparison to human tech that can't be traded, it seems those who pick from the alien tech list CAN be traded.

As far as I read that anyway. One-use items obviously can't be traded when used, perhaps. :P But that's my opinion as Mephy is busy being busy I believe. As it seems, tech can be traded but only via PMs.

PFP reading up!
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Deus Asmoth

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Re: Paranormal 25 - Day 3 brings no sign of Spring
« Reply #416 on: February 19, 2017, 12:09:00 am »

Doll: I know Leafsnail can't be scum. I also may be able to confirm TBF's claim, but only if he actually does it during the day. I can't give my reasoning behind knowing Leafsnail without also losing my ability to confirm or counter TBF's claim. That really only leaves TDS and Persus as potential scum.

4mask: hector's posts have been striking me as scummy since I read over the thread during N1, for largely similar reasons to the read I gave in #287. After spending much of D2 arguing with me about my case from D1, including FoSing over it towards day end, he's also dropped that line of enquiry altogether in favour of using doll's case instead. There's also the matter that I mentioned that he was misrepresenting what I had said when I posted at the start of D2, and he continued to do so until his last post during D2 when he said he'd actually worded it wrongly and I should apparently have assumed that was what had happened from the beginning.

hector:
DA

I like your case against me there. OMGUS much?
It's interesting you say that when you didn't bother yourself with coming up with a case on me at all.

Quote
Hector:
Alrighty then. Got a bit more time to read through things than I expected to get today.

So, without too much preamble, I think Deus Asmoth is scum.

DA has kept on TBF since D1, but hasn't actively tried to push a case against him since then. Arguably didn't even do it then, TBF's just "anti-town". I would've thought that someone who has been sure enough of someone's scumminess since D1 to vote for them until scum made a bad slip would be pushing for all they're worth to get that person lynched.

As webadict pointed out, it's a bit bizarre how he can vote TBF for two days, and then suddenly start defending him on D3.

[thinkingoutloud]Unless something happened on N2? Which in itself doesn't make sense since his last post on D2 was him defending his "TBF should be lynched" position, so why wouldn't it have happened N1 instead?[/thinkingoutloud]
There's a fair bit of bull here, so let's get to it.

DA has kept on TBF since D1, but hasn't actively tried to push a case against him since then. Arguably didn't even do it then, TBF's just "anti-town". I would've thought that someone who has been sure enough of someone's scumminess since D1 to vote for them until scum made a bad slip would be pushing for all they're worth to get that person lynched.
This is interesting for a couple of reasons. Firstly because you FoS'ed me during Day 2 precisely for maintaining a case on TBF and are now claiming that I wasn't pushing enough to get them lynched. Secondly, you seem to have forgotten that you tried to pull me up over calling TBF scummy during day 2. Thirdly because you seem to be ignoring the possibility that what happened during Day 2 may actually have influenced my reads on him.

Maintaining is not actively pushing for lynching someone, which is why I pushed you about your reasoning behind TBF's scumminess.
No it isn't. Unless this is another one of those times where I'm supposed to assume that's what you were trying to do but just happened to never bring it up while discussing it?

Quote
You re-voted TBF with your first post of D2, said "still scum" and moved on. Why were you not trying to encourage people to vote for him, since your read persisted through the night?
My case was already laid out on him, the details hadn't changed. Did you want me to go door to door handing out flyers?

Quote
As webadict pointed out, it's a bit bizarre how he can vote TBF for two days, and then suddenly start defending him on D3.
I was voting for TBF during D1 and at the start of D2. I might as well reiterate that something happened during Day 2 that could have caused me to reevaluate my read on him. And if asking someone for the reasoning behind their arguments against someone counts as defending the second person, sure. I'm defending TBF then, I guess.

Fair enough.

[thinkingoutloud]Unless something happened on N2? Which in itself doesn't make sense since his last post on D2 was him defending his "TBF should be lynched" position, so why wouldn't it have happened N1 instead?[/thinkingoutloud]
Or something could also have happened during D2. And my last post during D2 was defending the reasoning behind the position I took during D1, since you were asking me about it at the time.

Speaking of that post, it's strange that we're nearly 48 hours into the day and you haven't made any response to it yet, since you had FoS'ed me over my opinion on that post during D2. Yet your vote for me today is just parroting the reasoning of Doll and webadict.

What's to respond to?

The post is, in order of paragraphs: your opinion on third parties + maintaining your case; maintaining your case x 2; conflating experience with ability; maintaining your case and forgetting my position is "it's TBF's meta"; asking my opinion on a related topic.

Since your case was TBF was anti-town, and I said that's his meta, I didn't particularly think a long argument - the essence of which I anticipated as "I'm right, your wrong" on both our parts - would be particularly fruitful.
So you were willing to keep that argument going for all of day 2 and were suspicious enough of me for points that I had already brought up in previous posts to FoS me over it, but saw nothing worth carrying over?

You're also skipping several parts of the post. The part where I pointed out that you were pushing me about mentioning third parties while ignoring literally everyone else doing so as well, for example.

Quote
4mask is probably town. TDS is probably town. Persus isn't scum.
I'm interested in your reasoning behind these, since you've never mentioned them before.
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doll

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Re: Paranormal 25 - Day 3 brings no sign of Spring
« Reply #417 on: February 19, 2017, 01:14:03 am »

Given that the two observant guards can protect each other so they don't provide safe kill targets to scum, and the profusion of observant guards stops scum from easily picking off outed town PR's, is there any reason why I shouldn't out the other observant guard (TDS's human) right now?

I can't actually think of one, but I'll check just in case I'm missing something.

It certainly would simplify the daygame.
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doll

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Re: Paranormal 25 - Day 3 brings no sign of Spring
« Reply #418 on: February 19, 2017, 01:18:01 am »

EBWOP:
TheBiggerFish
Deus Asmoth's post means you should claim, since you were undecided about it earlier.
TheDarkStar
I know you're waiting on Meph for information about tech trading, but you still haven't told anyone (as far as I know) what your tech is.
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hector13

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Re: Paranormal 25 - Day 3 brings no sign of Spring
« Reply #419 on: February 19, 2017, 01:37:04 am »

DA

Doll: I know Leafsnail can't be scum.

Why not go whole hog and make your claim? Leafsnail claimed they were a kook earlier, there are only so many roles that'll either see through that or not be bothered by it.

4mask: hector's posts have been striking me as scummy since I read over the thread during N1, for largely similar reasons to the read I gave in #287. After spending much of D2 arguing with me about my case from D1, including FoSing over it towards day end, he's also dropped that line of enquiry altogether in favour of using doll's case instead. There's also the matter that I mentioned that he was misrepresenting what I had said when I posted at the start of D2, and he continued to do so until his last post during D2 when he said he'd actually worded it wrongly and I should apparently have assumed that was what had happened from the beginning.

"much of day 2" compromising all of 2 posts, this, which was directed at a lot of people, and this which happened after the RattyB revelation, which was directed at someone I wanted some clarification from, and TDS, who made one contribution on D2.

Where am I only using doll's case? I said I agreed with him, but also said I wasn't particularly pleased with your lack of movement on TBF during D2.

Who's misrepresenting whom, again?

Maintaining is not actively pushing for lynching someone, which is why I pushed you about your reasoning behind TBF's scumminess.
No it isn't. Unless this is another one of those times where I'm supposed to assume that's what you were trying to do but just happened to never bring it up while discussing it?

Quote
You re-voted TBF with your first post of D2, said "still scum" and moved on. Why were you not trying to encourage people to vote for him, since your read persisted through the night?
My case was already laid out on him, the details hadn't changed. Did you want me to go door to door handing out flyers?

Would you like some cheese with that whine? ::)

This one's on you, methinks. I used the word "actively", which means actually doing something as opposed to going "okay my opinion from D1 hasn't changed, cool cool *vote*"

So yeah, go door to door handing out fliers, get a megaphone and shout it from the rooftops, accost people in the street and scream in their faces that TBF should be hanged by the neck 'til he's dead.

You were very sure of TBF's anti-townness on D1 and the start of D2, so why not pull out all the stops for someone you think isn't town?

What's to respond to?

The post is, in order of paragraphs: your opinion on third parties + maintaining your case; maintaining your case x 2; conflating experience with ability; maintaining your case and forgetting my position is "it's TBF's meta"; asking my opinion on a related topic.

Since your case was TBF was anti-town, and I said that's his meta, I didn't particularly think a long argument - the essence of which I anticipated as "I'm right, your wrong" on both our parts - would be particularly fruitful.
So you were willing to keep that argument going for all of day 2 and were suspicious enough of me for points that I had already brought up in previous posts to FoS me over it, but saw nothing worth carrying over?

You're also skipping several parts of the post. The part where I pointed out that you were pushing me about mentioning third parties while ignoring literally everyone else doing so as well, for example.

Who is "literally everyone else" and where did they mention third parties? You mentioned doll earlier in regards to this, I'm reasonably sure. Was there anyone else?

Quote
4mask is probably town. TDS is probably town. Persus isn't scum.
I'm interested in your reasoning behind these, since you've never mentioned them before.

4mask and TDS boil down to gut feeling, really, hence "probably". 4mask has asked people to clarify their positions on their cases, and hasn't really gone after any easy lynches (like doll on D1) and TDS made a claim which could potentially clear two players, though is slow about getting to the clearing part.

Tiruin said Shakerag said he said she said Persus had a "survive" goal. This means he's an Enchanter, Survivor, or a VT.

As far as I can tell, only the Exterminator has a natural mind-shield, meaning they would be the only role that would have a "survive" goal of the explicitly antagonistic alignments from a telepath's investigation.

The only role of those that could be scum is Enchanter, though I feel it's unlikely there's a second one in the game. Not impossible, obviously, but 1 in 3 odds regardless. 1 in 4 if you count the Exty, but that seems like a shaky one. Perhaps I should downgrade it to "probably not scum", anyway.

doll

Given that the two observant guards can protect each other so they don't provide safe kill targets to scum, and the profusion of observant guards stops scum from easily picking off outed town PR's, is there any reason why I shouldn't out the other observant guard (TDS's human) right now?

I can't actually think of one, but I'll check just in case I'm missing something.

It certainly would simplify the daygame.

I'm going to say you shouldn't. No reason to give scum more information than they already have.

Should the guards really be guarding each other anyway? Seems a bit pointless shifting the kill from one of them to the other, even if they do pass on the information about who killed them.
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