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Author Topic: Paranormal 25 - Game over! Town victory!  (Read 79629 times)

4maskwolf

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Re: Paranormal 25 - Day 3 brings no sign of Spring
« Reply #390 on: February 18, 2017, 04:29:23 am »

So what I'm taking away from Meph's post is that barring an extreme edge case (Persus as a naturally mind-shielded dopp scientist who opted to pick mind shield as his tech to have an advanced mind shield) Persus isn't dopp and likely isn't a hostile third party.  Could be a survivor, I guess, but he's almost certainly on the town's side.

doll

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Re: Paranormal 25 - Day 3 brings no sign of Spring
« Reply #391 on: February 18, 2017, 06:54:06 am »

Survivor is a scum role.
Unless the town can actually threaten it with kills (which would require it to not have any sort of shield and for it to be outed and for town to actually be able to convince it that they have a kill and would use it on the survivor i.e. the dopps aren't obvious) then the survivor will always vote with scum where it matters.
While it's true that there is no need to kill a survivor to win the game, survivors absolutely cannot be considered anything other than scum for determining mylo/lylo.

Persus13 is no more likely to be a survivor than any other player whose role is unknown. What he isn't is a dopp (barring some fantastic coincidence, or Tiruin lying - which would require her to be scum. and thus is unlikely at best).
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webadict

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Re: Paranormal 25 - Day 3 brings no sign of Spring
« Reply #392 on: February 18, 2017, 08:02:25 am »

Oh... now I get it. DA investigated me, didn't he, doll? Bit of a waste if you ask me. I already told you what my role was.

Should've investigated Leafsnail, honestly. If he is Town, then you're set. But I'm like 75% sure he's scum. I can't honestly say I've seen Town play from him, and the 25% chance is he is playing really badly, which is unusual for Leaf, or he is super confused about Day 1, which isn't particularly unusual, but I'd hope he would've gotten over it by now.

But the worst part is, I say that because he is unlynchable at this point until TBF and Hector are dealt with, and Persus can be effectively ruled out.

Based off that knowledge, I have to vote one of those two.  But I still feel bad lynching TBF, in the off chance he's actually Town. So,  Hector13, unless I'm missing something.
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doll

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Re: Paranormal 25 - Day 3 brings no sign of Spring
« Reply #393 on: February 18, 2017, 08:16:34 am »

Webadict
TheDarkStar is the operative, not Deus Asmoth.
As far as I am aware there is no mechanical information on DA out or claimed in the game.
You are not the player TDS investigated - though I will note that TDS claimed that the player they investigated was an observant guard, and I have contacted that player and they confirmed that TDS contacted them during D2 and that they are an observant guard.
Pending on TDS confirming himself with tech-trading, those two players will be entirely clear (to anyone with the opportunity to participate in the tech trading, and to doubt that would require implicating every player involved in supporting the operative claim as lying).

Deus Asmoth is my preferred lynch target, I've only held off on voting to give TDS time to confirm himself so that I can proceed without the shadow of his unconfirmed confirmable claim.

Unless I've missed something and you're talking about something else?
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webadict

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Re: Paranormal 25 - Day 3 brings no sign of Spring
« Reply #394 on: February 18, 2017, 09:18:01 am »

Webadict
TheDarkStar is the operative, not Deus Asmoth.
As far as I am aware there is no mechanical information on DA out or claimed in the game.
You are not the player TDS investigated - though I will note that TDS claimed that the player they investigated was an observant guard, and I have contacted that player and they confirmed that TDS contacted them during D2 and that they are an observant guard.
Pending on TDS confirming himself with tech-trading, those two players will be entirely clear (to anyone with the opportunity to participate in the tech trading, and to doubt that would require implicating every player involved in supporting the operative claim as lying).

Deus Asmoth is my preferred lynch target, I've only held off on voting to give TDS time to confirm himself so that I can proceed without the shadow of his unconfirmed confirmable claim.

Unless I've missed something and you're talking about something else?
That's what I get for playing from my phone. My bad. I'm against lynching the Operative, is all. I'd still want Leafsnail verified, though.

Dues Asmoth is your target, then? Fine. Dues Asmoth.
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Leafsnail

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Re: Paranormal 25 - Day 3 brings no sign of Spring
« Reply #395 on: February 18, 2017, 01:27:38 pm »

Tech trading isn't as much of a confirmation as doll seems to think it is. There are hostile alien roles, and doppelgangers could pass on tech if they're in contact with an alien.

Meph: How does tech trading work? Can it be done at any time, or is it a night action? TDS should be giving out a tech right now if it's an anytime thing.
I did indeed roleclaim, mostly because my main action (using a scanner) is one-shot and so my future actions are limited. I'm the/an agent operative, but fillipk died before I was told he was the agent and so I'm much less useful now.

The person I inspected was a human observant guard (and doll now knows what the person I inspected was). I won't claim who they were for their protection (although doll knows who I inspected).
The scanner only takes up a small tech slot out of your 2 small slots and 1 medium slot so you should have a lot more stuff to use. At the very least you could (should, really, none of the medium techs seem worth taking over that) have another round of the scanner as a medium tech.

The information you've chosen to give out and keep back also makes no sense to me. Why would you give out the role of the person you investigated but not who they are? You could have just said "I inspected person X, they are town" and that would be very useful information for the town without giving out information to the mafia. What you've provided is not helpful at all.
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webadict

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Re: Paranormal 25 - Day 3 brings no sign of Spring
« Reply #396 on: February 18, 2017, 02:10:37 pm »

Tech trading isn't as much of a confirmation as doll seems to think it is. There are hostile alien roles, and doppelgangers could pass on tech if they're in contact with an alien.

Meph: How does tech trading work? Can it be done at any time, or is it a night action? TDS should be giving out a tech right now if it's an anytime thing.
I did indeed roleclaim, mostly because my main action (using a scanner) is one-shot and so my future actions are limited. I'm the/an agent operative, but fillipk died before I was told he was the agent and so I'm much less useful now.

The person I inspected was a human observant guard (and doll now knows what the person I inspected was). I won't claim who they were for their protection (although doll knows who I inspected).
The scanner only takes up a small tech slot out of your 2 small slots and 1 medium slot so you should have a lot more stuff to use. At the very least you could (should, really, none of the medium techs seem worth taking over that) have another round of the scanner as a medium tech.

The information you've chosen to give out and keep back also makes no sense to me. Why would you give out the role of the person you investigated but not who they are? You could have just said "I inspected person X, they are town" and that would be very useful information for the town without giving out information to the mafia. What you've provided is not helpful at all.
Do you need more bait for your fishing attempt?

Can't work with the information you've already got?
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webadict

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Re: Paranormal 25 - Day 3 brings no sign of Spring
« Reply #397 on: February 18, 2017, 02:20:22 pm »

Hey Leafsnail,

How come you're not picking on me for playing oddly this game? You usually do that when you're Town, but you're ignoring me.

I am sad.

But, now that I've pointed this out, you probably will continue to ignore me.

But now that I've pointed THAT out, you'll admit I'm right, and you'll have to make a choice.

How's about you defend the decision to not go after me, while simultaneously going after doll multiple times throughout this game, Shakerag, and... Who else even? It hasn't felt substantive enough, and it's not so much because I believe that the Town you is super substantive, but because you just don't seem to have a real heading for what you're after or why. It's like you're treating today like some sort of RVS late game scenario... Plus, your reasoning behind votes just... I dunno, man. Even if you had been super dismissive about the game in general, I wouldn't mind, but your half-hearted attempts are what really stand out to me.

Like, I don't get it.

Am I wrong here? Is anyone else feeling this?
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hector13

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Re: Paranormal 25 - Day 3 brings no sign of Spring
« Reply #398 on: February 18, 2017, 02:27:09 pm »

Alrighty then. Got a bit more time to read through things than I expected to get today.

So, without too much preamble, I think Deus Asmoth is scum.

DA has kept on TBF since D1, but hasn't actively tried to push a case against him since then. Arguably didn't even do it then, TBF's just "anti-town". I would've thought that someone who has been sure enough of someone's scumminess since D1 to vote for them until scum made a bad slip would be pushing for all they're worth to get that person lynched.

As webadict pointed out, it's a bit bizarre how he can vote TBF for two days, and then suddenly start defending him on D3.

[thinkingoutloud]Unless something happened on N2? Which in itself doesn't make sense since his last post on D2 was him defending his "TBF should be lynched" position, so why wouldn't it have happened N1 instead?[/thinkingoutloud]
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webadict

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Re: Paranormal 25 - Day 3 brings no sign of Spring
« Reply #399 on: February 18, 2017, 03:16:24 pm »

Alrighty then. Got a bit more time to read through things than I expected to get today.

So, without too much preamble, I think Deus Asmoth is scum.

DA has kept on TBF since D1, but hasn't actively tried to push a case against him since then. Arguably didn't even do it then, TBF's just "anti-town". I would've thought that someone who has been sure enough of someone's scumminess since D1 to vote for them until scum made a bad slip would be pushing for all they're worth to get that person lynched.

As webadict pointed out, it's a bit bizarre how he can vote TBF for two days, and then suddenly start defending him on D3.

[thinkingoutloud]Unless something happened on N2? Which in itself doesn't make sense since his last post on D2 was him defending his "TBF should be lynched" position, so why wouldn't it have happened N1 instead?[/thinkingoutloud]
I don't remember pointing this out. Am I going crazy?
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Deus Asmoth

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Re: Paranormal 25 - Day 3 brings no sign of Spring
« Reply #400 on: February 18, 2017, 03:20:08 pm »

TBF: If you could either claim or say you're not going to at a reasonable point during the day, that'd be nice.

Doll:
Deus Asmoth
Is TheBiggerFish scum?
Is TheBiggerFish still anti-town?
Assuming TDS clears himself, who do you want lynched today based on currently available information?
TBF being scum doesn't make sense given what happened during Day 2. TBF's behaviour during Day 1 was anti-town, but depending on his role claim (if he actually does claim). My top pick for scum at the moment is hector, for reasons I'm getting to in the reply to him here.

Hector:
Alrighty then. Got a bit more time to read through things than I expected to get today.

So, without too much preamble, I think Deus Asmoth is scum.

DA has kept on TBF since D1, but hasn't actively tried to push a case against him since then. Arguably didn't even do it then, TBF's just "anti-town". I would've thought that someone who has been sure enough of someone's scumminess since D1 to vote for them until scum made a bad slip would be pushing for all they're worth to get that person lynched.

As webadict pointed out, it's a bit bizarre how he can vote TBF for two days, and then suddenly start defending him on D3.

[thinkingoutloud]Unless something happened on N2? Which in itself doesn't make sense since his last post on D2 was him defending his "TBF should be lynched" position, so why wouldn't it have happened N1 instead?[/thinkingoutloud]
There's a fair bit of bull here, so let's get to it.

DA has kept on TBF since D1, but hasn't actively tried to push a case against him since then. Arguably didn't even do it then, TBF's just "anti-town". I would've thought that someone who has been sure enough of someone's scumminess since D1 to vote for them until scum made a bad slip would be pushing for all they're worth to get that person lynched.
This is interesting for a couple of reasons. Firstly because you FoS'ed me during Day 2 precisely for maintaining a case on TBF and are now claiming that I wasn't pushing enough to get them lynched. Secondly, you seem to have forgotten that you tried to pull me up over calling TBF scummy during day 2. Thirdly because you seem to be ignoring the possibility that what happened during Day 2 may actually have influenced my reads on him.

As webadict pointed out, it's a bit bizarre how he can vote TBF for two days, and then suddenly start defending him on D3.
I was voting for TBF during D1 and at the start of D2. I might as well reiterate that something happened during Day 2 that could have caused me to reevaluate my read on him. And if asking someone for the reasoning behind their arguments against someone counts as defending the second person, sure. I'm defending TBF then, I guess.

[thinkingoutloud]Unless something happened on N2? Which in itself doesn't make sense since his last post on D2 was him defending his "TBF should be lynched" position, so why wouldn't it have happened N1 instead?[/thinkingoutloud]
Or something could also have happened during D2. And my last post during D2 was defending the reasoning behind the position I took during D1, since you were asking me about it at the time.

Speaking of that post, it's strange that we're nearly 48 hours into the day and you haven't made any response to it yet, since you had FoS'ed me over my opinion on that post during D2. Yet your vote for me today is just parroting the reasoning of Doll and webadict.
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Leafsnail

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Re: Paranormal 25 - Day 3 brings no sign of Spring
« Reply #401 on: February 18, 2017, 03:39:29 pm »

@webadict: it's true that I'm devoting less energy to this game than I used to since I'm now working full time. And honestly I just haven't found it as fun as I used to.

I haven't gone after you because I haven't been reading you as scum particularly.

Asking an already claimed role to provide information that would help the town is not rolefishing. What is rolefishing is the question TDS asked me yesterday, apparently for no reason at all since no small/medium techs provide tracking results.
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webadict

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Re: Paranormal 25 - Day 3 brings no sign of Spring
« Reply #402 on: February 18, 2017, 03:46:04 pm »

@webadict: it's true that I'm devoting less energy to this game than I used to since I'm now working full time. And honestly I just haven't found it as fun as I used to.

I haven't gone after you because I haven't been reading you as scum particularly.

Asking an already claimed role to provide information that would help the town is not rolefishing. What is rolefishing is the question TDS asked me yesterday, apparently for no reason at all since no small/medium techs provide tracking results.
Hmm... Still a fair answer. Just doesn't feel like regular you.
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4maskwolf

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Re: Paranormal 25 - Day 3 brings no sign of Spring
« Reply #403 on: February 18, 2017, 04:03:07 pm »

Alright now that I'm fully awake and have eaten, let's get cracking.

I'm interested in the reasoning behind this, because for it to implicate TBF as scum would require them to not discuss a coordinated fake claim before going ahead with it when they were both almost certainly online at the same time and could have discussed it via quicktopic.
Normally, I wouldn't even be considering this scenario, but normally this scenario wouldn't even exist.  We're dealing with a very new scum player here, and even some veteran players are known to do strange things without consulting their team from time to time.  You make a decent point, but you have to look at the context and the experience level of the players.  Take into account the scenarios where TBF is town.  Scenario One: the scum team didn't have information on TBF and Ratty pulled the claim out of his ass.  Unlikely, because there are better and safer fakeclaims, especially if he consulted with his team before claiming as you're suggesting in your post.  Even when you consider that RattyB is new, most people take the simplest option available to them, especially if they don't have the experience to do something riskier, and reporter is a very risky fakeclaim if you don't actually have one on your team.  Scenario Two: they knew TBF went nowhere and TBF decided to lie about it to get Ratty lynched when he had no hard evidence Ratty was scum.  Even more unlikely, since that would require a level of terrible play that I'm not sure any mafia player is capable of.  Scenario Three: they knew TBF went nowhere but TBF had a psionic role (telepath or psychic warden) and misunderstood how his role interacted with reporters.  This is the most plausible scenario, however, there is some evidence, both hard and soft, to suggest this is not the case.  As far as the possibility of a psychic warden, nobody has yet claimed that a psychic warden targeted them, so I have no reason to believe that one exists in the game.  For telepath, that is an incredibly useful role for finding scum, since there are very few townies who will show up with a "kill" intent, yet TBF claimed that his role was "in high likelihood useless" at the beginning of today, which leads me to believe he's not a telepath.  If none of the "TBF is town" scenarios are likely, then where does that leave TBF?

And with the exception of maybe 4maskwolf, most players here usually try and keep things simple as mafia.
Guilty as charged.

Survivor is a scum role.
Unless the town can actually threaten it with kills (which would require it to not have any sort of shield and for it to be outed and for town to actually be able to convince it that they have a kill and would use it on the survivor i.e. the dopps aren't obvious) then the survivor will always vote with scum where it matters.
While it's true that there is no need to kill a survivor to win the game, survivors absolutely cannot be considered anything other than scum for determining mylo/lylo.

Persus13 is no more likely to be a survivor than any other player whose role is unknown. What he isn't is a dopp (barring some fantastic coincidence, or Tiruin lying - which would require her to be scum. and thus is unlikely at best).
Thus why I put "Persus is probably on the town's side", since survivors don't have a reason to side with town unless town is already winning.

Now, on to questions.

Deus Asmoth: You don't really present a case against hector other than "I don't like your arguments".  Is there anything more to your case, or is it just his recent posts strike you as scummy?
hector13: You're tunneling really hard into DA today.  Regardless of my personal opinion of him, your case is rather shaky: DA's big post yesterday was defending why they'd been trying to get TBF lynched prior to the reveal that RattyB was scum, and was written in the past tense.  I know this because I've reread it a couple of times because is struck me as odd too.  What I found was that they didn't state their opinion of TBF at the moment in that post, just why they had voted him previously.  While the shift in tone is sudden, the simplest answer is "TBF getting Ratty lynched changed DA's mind".  Is there more to your case than just the focus on TBF by DA?
TBF: Are you going to post more today?  Because right now you've got two posts for the day and one of those is utterly lacking in substance.

4maskwolf

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Re: Paranormal 25 - Day 3 brings no sign of Spring
« Reply #404 on: February 18, 2017, 04:40:44 pm »

Tech trading isn't as much of a confirmation as doll seems to think it is. There are hostile alien roles, and doppelgangers could pass on tech if they're in contact with an alien.
I considered this possibility when I first saw the claim by TDS, but both of these are edge case scenarios.  Assuming that TDS is able to pass tech, meaning there was more than one small slot item that was his, there are only a few aliens it could be.  Let's break them down:
Xenozoologist: Would be playing against their win condition and may be unable to win at this point, with two psionic humans dead.  There have been no abductions to this point, so there's no reason to believe one would exist, much less work with the scum team.
Exterminator: Would be playing the long game and taking a huge risk, since giving additional information to the town helps them find the scum quicker.  If all scum are lynched quickly, with many town alive, and the game doesn't end, who better to lynch when the killing starts than the claimed alien?
Exterminator Operative: If this role is actually in the game the game is probably already lost for the town, with five anti-town roles and two parties with kills.  Almost certainly not the case, and see the exterminator section above for more reasons why it's unlikely.
Agent Operative: the claimed role, nothing unusual here.
Hivemind: The highest probability among the anti-town roles, and is a rather terrifying threat, especially because it's possible the entire thing is a ruse to keep their converted ally from being lynched and revealing their presence.  A possibility, but I'll detail a way below to show how to rule this out.
Mind Stealer: See the Xenozoologist section above.

Now, what of the case where the scumteam got tech from a third party?  Let's assume for a moment that TDS is able to pass tech, meaning that they weren't in contact with a survivor who for some reason decided to pick up scanner instead of a defensive item (a risky play, but not one that can be entirely ruled out).  The real question is, though: what alien role would actually do that?  Only an exterminator who was playing a long game, but what would they claim?  They can't claim survivor, since they'd have passed more than one piece of tech, and all other tech-using aliens are hostile to the scumteam as well.  So it's unlikely they got multiple pieces of tech from an alien if TDS is scum.

Now, how do we rule out hivemind, the most likely of the situations detailed above?  It's simple: if we can pass tech during the day, TDS passes the tech to someone he considers trustworthy, who will in turn pass the tech to someone they consider trustworthy, and who in turn passes the tech to someone they consider trustworthy, who can then pass it back to TDS.  Since a hivemind will only have had the time to convert two people, at least one of the people is guaranteed to be clean.  If any of them claim to have not received both a medium and small tech item (which is a combination a hivemind could not have) we lynch TDS immediately.  If TDS is as he claims to be, a scum has just outed themself and we lynch them the next day.
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