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Author Topic: Paranormal 25 - Game over! Town victory!  (Read 81060 times)

Leafsnail

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Re: Paranormal 25 - Day 3 brings no sign of Spring
« Reply #375 on: February 17, 2017, 06:59:33 pm »

TDS: when you asked me about my night action yesterday was that for any particular reason? And if it was important why didn't you comment on my response in any way in #340, and also vote for shorten, suggesting you had no intention to comment on my response at all?

Tiruin: you said that Shakerag claimed to you last night. Did he also claim his night one result? I can't see any reason for him not to if he already trusted you enough to claim to him.
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doll

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Re: Paranormal 25 - Day 3 brings no sign of Spring
« Reply #376 on: February 17, 2017, 07:18:41 pm »

doll. I think your behaviour yesterday was suspicious.
My role isn't one which is particularly likely to draw a roleblock or nightkill, and it probably serves the town's interests if it does.
Do you honestly think this? If you successfully guess the nightkill the town is basically handed a member of the scumteam on a silver platter. Plus, it's one of the roles that's most likely to draw a kill since if the mafia goes after you there's no risk of them being outed by your action. To be fair, it is a pretty shitty role for a doppelganger to have. Is that why you were so blasé about revealing it to a random person on day one and the town on day two?
Observant guard is not as important a town role as you seem to think it is. If I guess the scumkill, it narrows the lynch target down to two, one of whom is scum. On day 2 that's quite useful, sure, but narrowing the options to a 50/50 (independent of other game factors) is a relatively small advantage and that is all the role does going into lylo/mylo (since you can't lynch the other player if you mislynch during those times).
Once you are in mylo/lylo, the role does next to nothing; it will not allow you to survive a mislynch, and only narrowly improves the odds if you are lynching successfully and the role blocks a kill.
Early game, the observant guard isn't a high scumkill priority anyway because of the danger of investigation roles which continue to accumulate information the longer they are in the game.
All this is aside from the fact that the guard detection can be subverted by assassination bots, stopped with roleblocks, and scum with multiple kills can just kill both players. These require some knowledge of my role and some resources for scum to accomplish, so it is true that I have increased my liability to these workarounds by claiming. However, assassination bots in particular are likely to be used on high priority guard targets anyhow.
You seem to be pretty up on how mafia works, so I can't imagine you simply didn't realise the power of your role. I don't think your stated motive that you wanted to "apply pressure and justify a lynch if you [Tiruin] had nothing useful to share" remotely justifies fullclaiming as opposed to just saying who you visited. If you actually thought Tiruin was rolefishing scum (the explanation you provide in #350) you could've just said so and pushed a lynch without outing yourself.
I don't have an investigative role, so for me to claim who I visited more or less outs me as a guard anyhow since I would be outing whatever information I had on Shakerag at that point, because I was about 80% confident that Tiruin was town at that point. I wanted my position and activity to be as clear as possible at that point because I wasn't sure if Tiruin was a reporter or an intelligence scientist and whatever she was about to say was going to decide my vote for at least that day. In particular, I was very interested in hearing if she was a reporter who had watched Shakerag, because it would not only have strong implications for webadict's and RattyB's roles. Since a player was on the verge of (and did) fullclaim an investigative role and it appeared that two other players had strong chances of having investigative roles, I was about to be surrounded by people with a greater ability to mechanically locate scum than myself. Dying to give them another turn was entirely acceptable, especially considering that there may be other town guards, and that my death would clear me.

To use the current game as an example, the scumkill landing on me would have been much better for town than the current situation of having lost a telepath.
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TheDarkStar

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Re: Paranormal 25 - Day 3 brings no sign of Spring
« Reply #377 on: February 17, 2017, 07:56:38 pm »

TheDarkStar
Why did you ask Leafsnail what he did night 1?

It was supposed to be a gambit but no one noticed and then the day ended. (PPE: I missed Leafsnails reply, apparently)

Note: I received a PM with a roleclaim from TDS during the night.
I'll give him a chance to speak before I comment further on it.

I did indeed roleclaim, mostly because my main action (using a scanner) is one-shot and so my future actions are limited. I'm the/an agent operative, but fillipk died before I was told he was the agent and so I'm much less useful now.

The person I inspected was a human observant guard (and doll now knows what the person I inspected was). I won't claim who they were for their protection (although doll knows who I inspected).

TheDarkStar: Who do you think are the other two dopps? Why do you think I'm voting you?

Currently, I'm not sure who the dopps are. In addition, discussion has been dominated by people who I read as town (doll, webadict). Tiruin is also probably town because of her power role claim and her part in lynching RattyB.

That leaves TBF, hector13, Persus13, Deus Asmoth, Leafsnail, and 4maskwolf. I'll give detailed reads in a later post when I have time.
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webadict

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Re: Paranormal 25 - Day 3 brings no sign of Spring
« Reply #378 on: February 17, 2017, 07:58:46 pm »

I agree that TBF's contradiction of RattyB doesn't clear him. If we look at it from the dopp's perspective, there was a player asking the person who made the mafiakill where they went last night. It's highly likely that player will die no matter what they claim, so they may have made up deliberately contradictory claims to give TBF the credit for the kill.

That said, I'm not reading TBF as scum. I agree that RattyB was buddying with TBF in #197, but buddying is something that mafia members do to townies to make them into "useful idiots" that will help them. There's no need to do that to someone who you know is on your team anyway, and that post actually strikes me as exactly the opposite of the way mafia members usually behave towards each other, which is minimal interaction. I don't think either player is experienced enough to deliberately subvert that expectation either. There's also another explanation that I can think of for RattyB's claim, which is that the scumteam had reason to believe that TBF did not act (due to another role on the team) but Ratty's specific claim was contradicted by TBF's role. We'll see if that idea can be right if TBF claims.

doll. I think your behaviour yesterday was suspicious.
My role isn't one which is particularly likely to draw a roleblock or nightkill, and it probably serves the town's interests if it does.
Do you honestly think this? If you successfully guess the nightkill the town is basically handed a member of the scumteam on a silver platter. Plus, it's one of the roles that's most likely to draw a kill since if the mafia goes after you there's no risk of them being outed by your action. To be fair, it is a pretty shitty role for a doppelganger to have. Is that why you were so blasé about revealing it to a random person on day one and the town on day two?

You seem to be pretty up on how mafia works, so I can't imagine you simply didn't realise the power of your role. I don't think your stated motive that you wanted to "apply pressure and justify a lynch if you [Tiruin] had nothing useful to share" remotely justifies fullclaiming as opposed to just saying who you visited. If you actually thought Tiruin was rolefishing scum (the explanation you provide in #350) you could've just said so and pushed a lynch without outing yourself.
Lolol, see why he's suspicious? He's been doing this like every freaking Day. He goes after Town players pretty much exclusively. You better believe he'd be trying to convince us to lynch Tiruin if he could get away with it.
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doll

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Re: Paranormal 25 - Day 3 brings no sign of Spring
« Reply #379 on: February 17, 2017, 08:06:58 pm »

TheDarkStar
You still haven't told me what your other tech is.
If you really did have a one-shot scanner as you say, then you are still able to be confirmed as an operative by tech trading (assuming town trusts the player you are trading with), so we are still waiting on you for mechanical information, or at least I am.
Also, you sent a PM to me during night 2 because you thought I was town. Did you also send a PM to the player you had scanned as human, and if not, why not?
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Leafsnail

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Re: Paranormal 25 - Day 3 brings no sign of Spring
« Reply #380 on: February 17, 2017, 08:18:24 pm »

It was supposed to be a gambit but no one noticed and then the day ended. (PPE: I missed Leafsnails reply, apparently)
TheDarkStar. Care to explain what this alleged gambit was? Who were you expecting to "notice" other than me? Also, you had a hand in the day ending because you voted for shorten.

It seems to me like what you did was just pure, unrepentant rolefishing, in that case.
Lolol, see why he's suspicious? He's been doing this like every freaking Day. He goes after Town players pretty much exclusively. You better believe he'd be trying to convince us to lynch Tiruin if he could get away with it.
What a stupid attack line.
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Leafsnail

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Re: Paranormal 25 - Day 3 brings no sign of Spring
« Reply #381 on: February 17, 2017, 08:37:13 pm »

I don't really agree regarding the Observant Guard. The scum can 50/50 the guy you protected but that's true of basically any investigative role. And it can also protect outed power roles (and it's better to die defending another power role to give them the information on who attacked them).

But I can believe that was your thought process so it doesn't seem worth arguing about in detail.
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Deus Asmoth

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Re: Paranormal 25 - Day 3 brings no sign of Spring
« Reply #382 on: February 17, 2017, 08:55:54 pm »

Persus:
I feel like the timing was off for a bus. If Tiruin and/or TBF did bus RattyB, you are going to have to explain why he/she chose early Day 2 to do it when no one (besides me) had voted for him.

That's easy enough for Tiruin. She's claimed to have tracker bots, that she put them on Ratty and Shake, and that Ratty was the one who killed IronyOwl. Say almost all of this is true, aside from one thing: she could have put a bot on TBF instead of Ratty is she was Ratty's scum partner. Ratty does the kill and uses Tiruin's bot's result on TBF as a fake claim the next day, but TBF claims to know that he couldn't have been tracked that night, for whatever reason. The options for the end result there are gambling to get TBF lynched, TBF flipping as not-scum and Ratty being lynched the day after, or Tiruin bussing Ratty for towncred. It's entirely possible that Tiruin could have gone for the latter. Is that her meta? No, but people don't have to abide by their metagames.

4mask:
I think Tiruin is probably not scum, and in the scenario I'm concerned about the bus proper didn't start until RattyB made a fakeclaim he couldn't hope to maintain in the long term that would have drawn suspicion onto TBF had he gone along with it and it was proven to be false further down the line.
I'm interested in the reasoning behind this, because for it to implicate TBF as scum would require them to not discuss a coordinated fake claim before going ahead with it when they were both almost certainly online at the same time and could have discussed it via quicktopic. This:
Last night, I followed TBF, because I wanted to make sure I was wasn't making a scum friend. He did not go
anywhere. Anyone else can confirm this. Please. I would appreciate it.
Does not seem like the tone of someone who would have put something like that into action without talking about it with a team mate first.
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Tiruin

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Re: Paranormal 25 - Day 3 brings no sign of Spring
« Reply #383 on: February 17, 2017, 09:34:36 pm »

PFP (Why internet. Why.)
Tiruin: you said that Shakerag claimed to you last night. Did he also claim his night one result? I can't see any reason for him not to if he already trusted you enough to claim to him.
Nope! He claimed 'I'm a human telepath' in which I write:
*reads PM*
OK I was going to copy paste it but remove the timestamp to preserve validity and noticed he did claim that too.
...I forgot he did that and thought he just claimed. Oops!

He said he's a hyooman telepath and got a Survive result on Persus :O
>_> Can't believe I missed that.

Persus:
I feel like the timing was off for a bus. If Tiruin and/or TBF did bus RattyB, you are going to have to explain why he/she chose early Day 2 to do it when no one (besides me) had voted for him.

That's easy enough for Tiruin. She's claimed to have tracker bots, that she put them on Ratty and Shake, and that Ratty was the one who killed IronyOwl. Say almost all of this is true, aside from one thing: she could have put a bot on TBF instead of Ratty is she was Ratty's scum partner. Ratty does the kill and uses Tiruin's bot's result on TBF as a fake claim the next day, but TBF claims to know that he couldn't have been tracked that night, for whatever reason. The options for the end result there are gambling to get TBF lynched, TBF flipping as not-scum and Ratty being lynched the day after, or Tiruin bussing Ratty for towncred. It's entirely possible that Tiruin could have gone for the latter. Is that her meta? No, but people don't have to abide by their metagames.
While I agree with this being a reasonable course of thinking and skepticism, in this presumable basis--It'd be weird to issue a bus when...there wasn't much motive to do so in the first place. That and he's a dopp leader. Whoever TBF is, he's some role I have no idea about and a very risky thing to do (that and, if I had stated such against him, it'd be something towards something we can agree on and not be a wildcard as in that situation)

Since borrowing someone else's activity is more useful than just waiting on mechanics related drama (re: TDS), I present to you a PM 4mask sent to Tiruin and myself in response to Tiruin's boilerplate PM. Tiruin can confirm the text of this - TBF can't since he was excluded from the mailing list by 4mask.
Yep! He did that!

Although a BETTER way to display it is to remove the timestamp--PM timestamps can be fabricated (I know vaguely how to replicate it having been silly with the 'date=x' code at times :P), it's better to just remove the timestamp.

hector13
I think we should maybe be a bit more guarded about Tiruin. She did out scum, but it's not a bad choice to bus the weakest scum player, is it?
Hum! :O I detect something here that isn't like the others.
Weakest, you say? This feels like something in hindsight that would be inconspicuous but that's something in hindsight not considered in such a wording by townies.



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Mephansteras

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Re: Paranormal 25 - Day 3 brings no sign of Spring
« Reply #384 on: February 17, 2017, 10:22:33 pm »

The Whiteboard
TheBiggerFish: 4maskwolf
TheDarkStar: Leafsnail, Persus13



Day ends ~5pm Pacific Tuesday.
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hector13

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Re: Paranormal 25 - Day 3 brings no sign of Spring
« Reply #385 on: February 17, 2017, 11:01:32 pm »

hector13
I think we should maybe be a bit more guarded about Tiruin. She did out scum, but it's not a bad choice to bus the weakest scum player, is it?
Hum! :O I detect something here that isn't like the others.
Weakest, you say? This feels like something in hindsight that would be inconspicuous but that's something in hindsight not considered in such a wording by townies.

I was considering things from a scum perspective :P I would like to think I have the strength of play to avoid slips like that as scum :-\

Presently no idea who I'll vote for, need to read through stuff. I'll be doing that over the weekend, though may not necessarily be able to get a decent post up 'til Tuesday (:o) so you might get my thoughts piecemeal as and when opportunity arises. Which it might not.
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webadict

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Re: Paranormal 25 - Day 3 brings no sign of Spring
« Reply #386 on: February 17, 2017, 11:26:23 pm »

Yo, I'm gonna be honest, if you think Tiruin is scum, then her plan was so stupid that I think she deserves to win. Because it involves getting way too many elements to line up correctly. Also, it would be the gutsiest move there is, and I would respect that.

Hence why I will not only not vote her, but I'll defend her forever. You would have to have damning evidence from like 4 sources to get me to lynch her.

She's not scum. Doll's not scum. 4mask's not scum.

That's three people I am confident aren't scum, other than myself.

I don't have a good target just yet. I was hoping for a bit of helpful info, but I'm afraid I'll have to do work. Laaaame.
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doll

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Re: Paranormal 25 - Day 3 brings no sign of Spring
« Reply #387 on: February 18, 2017, 12:24:09 am »

Either TDS is scum or he isn't.

Specifically, either he's just given the worst operative fakeclaim in the world, or he can substantiate his roleclaim with tech trading (since he's only claimed to have used one small tech) or otherwise. Clearing TDS also comes with clearing another player, unless everyone TDS has claimed to and TDS all die in the same cycle without outing the player he scanned.

I'm fairly happy with 4mask, Leafsnail and Hector as town ('fairly happy' meaning 'slight town read'), and Persus13 has whatever good the 'survive' mind scan can be trusted with still in play, so that narrows my preferences down to TBF and DA. I'd prefer DA to TBF. I'll hold off on voting just for now since I'm still waiting on TDS to break the curse of inactivity, and if he can't substantiate his roleclaim he's the obvious lynch candidate.

DA shifted very heavily away from a TBF lynch during the previous cycle:
He started D2 with this:
TBF: I thought he was scum during Day 1, and that hasn't changed.
And finished D2 still maintaining the case on TBF:
shorten
...
I didn't say that. The original point that you questioned me on was when I said that "TBF may not be scum", which you seem to have interpreted as me saying that I thought there was a good chance that he wasn't, when I was raising the possibility of it in reference to the fact that regardless of his alignment (which I considered most likely to be scum), his play at the time was not town-oriented, he showed no inclination to change this fact, and I see no reason to leave such a player alive any longer than absolutely necessary.
His first and only post on D3, however, defends TBF from 4mask's theory and seeks to dispel the 'Tiruin is softconfirmed town' air we've adopted.
Spoiler: This post (click to show/hide)

Deus Asmoth
Is TheBiggerFish scum?
Is TheBiggerFish still anti-town?
Assuming TDS clears himself, who do you want lynched today based on currently available information?
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Persus13

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Re: Paranormal 25 - Day 3 brings no sign of Spring
« Reply #388 on: February 18, 2017, 12:42:58 am »

Meph: The OP says Telepath's detect the goals based on the actions taken that night and their role. what happens when the two goals are not the same?

Persus:
I feel like the timing was off for a bus. If Tiruin and/or TBF did bus RattyB, you are going to have to explain why he/she chose early Day 2 to do it when no one (besides me) had voted for him.

That's easy enough for Tiruin. She's claimed to have tracker bots, that she put them on Ratty and Shake, and that Ratty was the one who killed IronyOwl. Say almost all of this is true, aside from one thing: she could have put a bot on TBF instead of Ratty is she was Ratty's scum partner. Ratty does the kill and uses Tiruin's bot's result on TBF as a fake claim the next day, but TBF claims to know that he couldn't have been tracked that night, for whatever reason. The options for the end result there are gambling to get TBF lynched, TBF flipping as not-scum and Ratty being lynched the day after, or Tiruin bussing Ratty for towncred. It's entirely possible that Tiruin could have gone for the latter. Is that her meta? No, but people don't have to abide by their metagames.
That's a lot of ifs. Its why I was try to discourage saying TIruin was confirmed town, but still, that's a lot of hoops to jump through. And with the exception of maybe 4maskwolf, most players here usually try and keep things simple as mafia.

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Mephansteras

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Re: Paranormal 25 - Day 3 brings no sign of Spring
« Reply #389 on: February 18, 2017, 02:28:52 am »

Meph: The OP says Telepath's detect the goals based on the actions taken that night and their role. what happens when the two goals are not the same?

Action trumps Role, for the most part. For example, a Dopp who Investigates someone will show a 'Find' result, but a Dopp who does no action will always show Kill instead of Survive.
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