Sprityo: Multiple thirds are quite common on Bay 12. What do you think of GA's Sicilian mess?
Not having a framer or a similar mechanic would upset the game balance. Of the 11 initial players, there appear to be 8 cops (one of which is a third-party), at least one person with a non-cop role (I forget who this is), and two more third parties, with at least scum lying. With eight cops, it's likely that all the scum could be found and everyone's sanity determined by Day 3/4. In normal games, even having two or three insane cops is imbalanced once their determine their sanity. In this game, there has to be something to stop this game from overwhelmingly favoring the Town. Hence there are either framers or there are millers/anti-millers.
TheDarkStar: This is
beautiful. You have no idea how badly you've screwed up here.
First, having a framer or a similar mechanic would upset the game balance. The game's pretty well balanced if you think about it for a bit, extrapolating from what we know about the setup. See the below spoiler:
Think in terms of timing. Timing for no framer fits perfectly, whereas framer ruins the puzzle.
Assume one lynch per day and one kill per night, and two mafia. Assume two thirds, including the known survivor and GA/UXLZ's lyncher claim.
D1 (11 players alive) is nowhere near LYLO, but town has very little info. Not unreasonable chance of hitting a non-town, but a non-town dying is unlikely (particularly with UXLZ's revive).
D2 (9ish players alive), all cops have one inspect and town is assumed to learn about the gimmick. Nobody has much to act on or sort sanity out, particularly since paranoid/naive are expected parts of the balance. This is a safe day: scum cannot win this day even with third cooperation. Day could easily go either way for town.
D3 (7ish players alive), a reasonable mod would expect to be in a situation like today's, when the first differing results arrive. Due to paranoid/naive, no dead cops at this point have useful action results. Probably two or three have been lost, each having very little puzzle-solving impact. Town still has rather limited info. If game has gone utterly awry for town and with some luck for scum, a scum-survivor or scum-lyncher cooperative victory is possible.
If one mafioso has been caught by this point (D1 or D2 lynch), the mafia's probably lost, but that's to be expected in two-mafia games this size.
Fewer than 7 players, if both mafiosoes are alive and Deus lives, town's doomed. Yes, scum will know about a third party to work with by that point: inspectathon.
D4 is the expected turning point of the game. At this point, town should have a somewhat solid base of info to work with, albeit salted by paranoid/naives and scum fake results. This is the point where the game should turn into wars of inspect results, with the scum trying to mislynch through fake results propped up by in-thread evidence. For the game to still be open at this point, town must have had some level of success and luck. If town dies here, scum wins. If scum dies here, town probably wins.
Include a bit of wiggle room from third party revives and whatever OSG is, and D5 may be the (more pro-town) turning point. Takes a pretty lucky town, though.
Now, add a framer. At best, puzzle-solving is slowed down substantially and town is left with less information. At worst, town is acting on misinformation. A loosely even game becomes a somewhat scum-skewed game.
Second, of course... all of this is of no use to you in making your case, because
you reject that a framer caused Tiruin's GA inspect result. You've attacked a part of my argument that your case depends on. Your whole position hinges on Tiruin being sane and her inspect result being clearly accurate:
Given Tiruin's results, I know UXLZ must be scum.
Given Tiruin's and my inspection results, I'm certain UXLZ is scum unless something funny is happening with the way third parties are handled upon inspection.
So, what's so thoroughly convinced you that Tiruin's UXLZ result is accurate despite your strong belief that there must be a framer or other additional inspect disruptor? I note that you have no evidence against him aside from him daring to agree with me (shocking!) and Tiruin's inspect, but the latter can't provide you certainty. You reject the premise that lets it make you certain!
I note again that you steadfastly refuse to engage at all with my case that UXLZ is a third party. This is because
you can't engage. You've got nothing to engage me with. You can't counter my point, so you ignore it. Isn't that right, TDS?
As for your flailing strikes on me, well, of course I defend people I do not think are mafia. It's good practice, and it's what I do every game.
Kanoguti: Makes sense. BHK was inactive at the end of D2, and him not sending a N2 action fits with that.
Author
Topic: Mind Reading Mafia Game Over, No One Won. (Read 96139 times)