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Yes, we need one anyway.

17 (21.8%)

No, we should take that elsewhere and keep this thread as-is.

27 (34.6%)

I don't care, let's see what happens.

34 (43.6%)

Total Members Voted: 75

[scrdest]

If the coming of head chopping ultra orthodox guys, who consider middle class syrian as westernized devil is inevitable, why middle class syrians should not try to save own lifes, uh?

Why do you assume, the westernized middle class were secular ? Religious fundamentalism is a movement of wealthy westerners. Poor people can't afford to believe in god

Spoiler: Statistics (click to show/hide)

Now, I'm not a statistician, but scatter plots are easy to interpret.

Edit: also consider this a PTW, I guess. I think I've mentioned why I'm bitter about the amount of media attention this is getting elsewhere, so I'll just stay quiet lest I be accused of pissing on graves.

That's an interesting graph. It's not as straightforward, though. There's a bunch of clusters:

1) Poor Faithful (PF) cluster, around <15k$ and >75%
2) Poor Apathetic (PA) cluster, <25k and <55%
3) Rich Apathetic (RA), >25k and <60%
+ outliers

What's interesting is what countries fit the bill: PFs are largely Middle Eastern or South American, PAs are Soviet Block and RAs are classical rich Old Europe countries and Far Eastern world powers.

It seems that rather than a straight-up correlation of wealth with irreligiosity, it reflects the Cold War 'Three Worlds', with RA being First, PA Second and PF Third World, respectively; there are some oddballs like the unusually religious Poland, which would otherwise fit the PA geographically, and Murrica for RA - both of which are rooted in historical cultural weirdness - and unusually rich Gulf states - *coughoilcough* and CR and Slovenia for PA.

[smjjames]

If the coming of head chopping ultra orthodox guys, who consider middle class syrian as westernized devil is inevitable, why middle class syrians should not try to save own lifes, uh?

Why do you assume, the westernized middle class were secular ? Religious fundamentalism is a movement of wealthy westerners. Poor people can't afford to believe in god

Spoiler: Statistics (click to show/hide)

Now, I'm not a statistician, but scatter plots are easy to interpret.

Edit: also consider this a PTW, I guess. I think I've mentioned why I'm bitter about the amount of media attention this is getting elsewhere, so I'll just stay quiet lest I be accused of pissing on graves.

That's an interesting graph. It's not as straightforward, though. There's a bunch of clusters:

1) Poor Faithful (PF) cluster, around <15k$ and >75%
2) Poor Apathetic (PA) cluster, <25k and <55%
3) Rich Apathetic (RA), >25k and <60%
+ outliers

What's interesting is what countries fit the bill: PFs are largely Middle Eastern or South American, PAs are Soviet Block and RAs are classical rich Old Europe countries and Far Eastern world powers.

It seems that rather than a straight-up correlation of wealth with irreligiosity, it reflects the Cold War 'Three Worlds', with RA being First, PA Second and PF Third World, respectively; there are some oddballs like the unusually religious Poland, which would otherwise fit the PA geographically, and Murrica for RA - both of which are rooted in historical cultural weirdness - and unusually rich Gulf states - *coughoilcough* and CR and Slovenia for PA.

He was just making a counterpoint to 'poor people can't afford god', which is like saying tribespeople who have little money can't afford to worship their spirits or pantheon or whatever religious creed they go by.

Also, you forget Singapore, which would be more more PF, but by virtue of historical reasons and geography, is rich.

[Haspen]

there are some oddballs like the unusually religious Poland

For God and Country :V!

_{Also we had an anti-communist Pope for almost 30 years, why are you surprised?}

[scrdest]

Yeah, I know what was the point he was making and I agree with it, I just noticed the implications of the graph are deeper than rich <=> secular and it's interesting regarding LW's earlier points about the backgrounds of some of the terrorists.

I wasn't trying to bring up all the countries that are oddballs, and UAE/Kuwait are more visible with their GDP per capita beating USA's and still being in top 10% range of religiosity; Singapore's 70% is less impressive. At least I did not forget Poland

there are some oddballs like the unusually religious Poland

For God and Country :V!

_{Also we had an anti-communist Pope for almost 30 years, why are you surprised?}

I'm not. And it's not just about the Pope, it goes back to at least the Partitions, with priests being a major force in the preservation of national identity.

[smjjames]

On the pope, he's said that violence is blasphemy, but I'm sure he knows that muslims aren't going to listen to him.

Anyhow, from Finland via the Politico live feed:
Finland’s Interior Minister Petteri Orpo told Finnish broadcaster YLE that Europe’s freedom of movement could be in danger.

“As we have been unable to seal the outer border, particularly in Turkey, and we have not set up so-called hotspots in Greece, it means that there will continue to be tens or hundreds of thousands of people coming into Europe, and they are not being registered. We don’t know who they are and where they want to go,” Orpo said.

Orpo said “the fate of the Schengen area would be determined in a matter of weeks rather than months”.

Article (already in english) : http://yle.fi/uutiset/interior_minister_schengen_free_movement_may_be_at_risk/8456947

I thought that the closing of the French borders (even though that is temporary) spelled the beginning of the end for the schengen border thing. Though maybe that started with the refugee crisis.

[Sinistar]

Last time I went into a rant how islamization is a buzzword, next day Charlie Hebdo happened. I should claim prophetic powers or something.

So anyways, there is a lot of talk about found Syrian passport on the scene, connecting one of the suicide bombers to a person that registered as a refugee in Greece and later in Serbia. While I do think it is possible for ISIS agents to hide amongst the refugees, it does strike me as odd in this case - if we assume that blown up person was the original holder of the passport in question, why even officially register and risk being sent back/discovered etc.? Why even have passport with you on the day you blow yourself up? And also, refugees coming from Greece usually end up in Germany or further North, the north African come to Italy and French. My money is on someone faking it, trying to up the "agents amongst refugees" panic even further. But if by any chance this was someone who legitimately tried to just (legitimately) get to Europe, it could theoretically mean said person was very quickly radicalized by someone on the French or at least European soil. Which is kinda even more troublesome than the first option (but honestly, less profitable - as already mentioned before, it's easier to stir anti-immigrant feelings and then recruit from the disillusioned immigrants en-mass than going the second route).

Also, anyone heard if the anti-terrorist raids that happened just days before Paris attack had any connections with each other? My first thoughts when I heard about Paris was those cells that got raided panicked and executed the Paris attacks pre-emptively.

[smjjames]

It's already been said that those passports are most likely fake as in forged.

[Sergarr]

It's already been said that those passports are most likely fake as in forged.

And when did thing like that stop the right-wingers from claiming that the JEWS are clearly behind all of this? You know, they're already quite popular, this may just bring them over the edge required to win in one of the worse European countries. Golden Dawn taking rule in Greece would be especially hilarious interesting, given that Greece is on one of the major routes of refugees (or, sometimes, "refugees") into Europe.

[Nick K]

The Guardian has posted an article about ISIS' views on refugees: http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/nov/15/why-syrian-refugee-passport-found-at-paris-attack-scene-must-be-treated-with-caution. Apparently IS seriously dislikes refugees fleeing to Europe as it undermines their narrative of IS being a refuge for muslims, so before jumping to conclusions it may be worth considering that ISIS might be deliberately trying to stir up anger against the refugees.
As for the Egyptian passport that some of the more right-wing papers claimed was "found on the body of a bomber", it turns out to belong to a critically injured victim. He's in hospital with horrific injuries and the Daily Mail is smearing him as a terrorist just because of his nationality. Not cool.

[smjjames]

Something's going on, maybe false alarm, there were a bunch of people running in panic at a Paris memorial, looks like a false alarm.

Just shows how tense things are over there still.

[Sinistar]

It's already been said that those passports are most likely fake as in forged.

Oh, I've thought Serbia and Greece confirmed the supposed passport holder registered with them? Anyways, yeah, of course the whole thing stinks of a set-up.

The Guardian has posted an article about ISIS' views on refugees: http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/nov/15/why-syrian-refugee-passport-found-at-paris-attack-scene-must-be-treated-with-caution. Apparently IS seriously dislikes refugees fleeing to Europe as it undermines their narrative of IS being a refuge for muslims, so before jumping to conclusions it may be worth considering that ISIS might be deliberately trying to stir up anger against the refugees.
As for the Egyptian passport that some of the more right-wing papers claimed was "found on the body of a bomber", it turns out to belong to a critically injured victim. He's in hospital with horrific injuries and the Daily Mail is smearing him as a terrorist just because of his nationality. Not cool.

This article pretty much sums it. Didn't know now they've also found Egyptian passport though.

In the meantime, there were clashes between left and right sided demonstrators on Austro-Slovenian border. One source says there was actually some physical violence involved, but not some other one. Take it as you will.

[smjjames]

It's already been said that those passports are most likely fake as in forged.

Oh, I've thought Serbia and Greece confirmed the supposed passport holder registered with them? Anyways, yeah, of course the whole thing stinks of a set-up.

It's still very early in the investigation, we'll certainly find out more in the coming days and weeks.

The Guardian has posted an article about ISIS' views on refugees: http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/nov/15/why-syrian-refugee-passport-found-at-paris-attack-scene-must-be-treated-with-caution. Apparently IS seriously dislikes refugees fleeing to Europe as it undermines their narrative of IS being a refuge for muslims, so before jumping to conclusions it may be worth considering that ISIS might be deliberately trying to stir up anger against the refugees.
As for the Egyptian passport that some of the more right-wing papers claimed was "found on the body of a bomber", it turns out to belong to a critically injured victim. He's in hospital with horrific injuries and the Daily Mail is smearing him as a terrorist just because of his nationality. Not cool.

This article pretty much sums it. Didn't know now they've also found Egyptian passport though.

The thing with the Daily Mail smearing him reminds me of that video shown where some terrorists attacked a bus station (I think it was a bus station) in Israel and then in blind mob furyfear, the other people beat to death someone that they thought was one of the terrorists, but was just another innocent bystander who had gotten shot.

Also, it's the Daily Mail

[Vilanat]

A Syrian passport of a man registered as a refugee in Greece was found in the scene.

That leaves us with six most probable options:
1) The passport is real and the guy is a Syrian refugee that got radicalized while in Europe.
2) The passport is real and the guy infiltrated Europe/Moved within Europe as a fake refugee with his own passport through the massive movement that renders European Land and Sea borders unmanageable.
3) The passport is fake and the guy infiltrated Europe/Moved within Europe as a fake refugee with a fake passport through the massive movement that renders European Land and Sea borders unmanageable.
4) The passport is real, the refugee is real, but the passport was stolen by ISIS while in Europe to be used as means of travel within Europe.
5) The passport is fake/real (Doesn't matter) and the terrorists planted it there to make it appears as if the Refugees are a danger to Europe.
6) The passport is real, the refugee is real. the guy just wanted to go to a rock concert.

Now, examining the reasons for those four most likely options:

Number 1 is the most problematic because it means Europe can't even have pre-intel on potential terrorists because they just become ones in Europe. it highlights two threats, that of an open borders that allow free movement of people into Europe and one of radicalizing elements within Europe that manage to affect young muslims.

Numbers 2, 3 and 4 highlight the refugees and "refugees" stream into Europe as a potential threat to Europe as it enable movement into and within Europe unchecked.

Number 5 is partially against ISIS best interests because they would like the gates to remain open for them to enter freely and some say its partially in their best interest as closing the gates might make refugees think ISIS are great people and/or make Europeans angry at refugees which in turn will make refugees angry at Europe.

The likeliness of Number 1 is pretty likely. we know some, even if small part of the refugees are islamists to begin with. the conditions within Europe right now are not stellar for them and we know that even when the conditions are the best possible, as in Sweden, they can still turn radicals. there is a chance that a refugee that genuinely fled Syria because of Assad bombings or the other rebels bombings will turn to ISIS while in Europe.

The likeliness of Numbers 2 and 3 are extremely high. Right now a Syrian passport enable refugees to enter Germany and once there free travel to France is extremely easy. it doesn't matter if it's a real passport or fake.

The likeliness of Number 4 is high and like numbers 2 and 3, it highlights a problem with allowing Syrian refugees to freely travel within Europe.

The likeliness of Number 5 is the lowest. we know ISIS are the ones operating and making fortunes from smuggling refugees from Libya into Europe. we highly suspect ISIS affiliates are some of the ones operating the smuggling business from Turkey into Europe. free movement of people into Europe is the wet dream for groups like ISIS and Al-qaeda for obvious reasons. a lot of muslim religious men openly encourage muslims to immigrate to Europe and out breed the Natives. We know that ISIS knows that it doesn't matter if the attacker is a refugee or not as those attacks will stir up anger against Muslims and Refugees regardless. we know that even without anger at Muslims/Refugees, ISIS still manage to recruit muslims within Europe.
 
The likeliness of number 6 isn't high at all.

Of all the options, the one that sound most conspiracy theory material is the one where ISIS planted a Syrian refugee passport so Europeans will get angry with refugees and/or shut the gates so ISIS will appear the great guys.

Edit: Forgot #7. the Jews did it.

[Loud Whispers]

The Guardian has posted an article about ISIS' views on refugees: http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/nov/15/why-syrian-refugee-passport-found-at-paris-attack-scene-must-be-treated-with-caution. Apparently IS seriously dislikes refugees fleeing to Europe as it undermines their narrative of IS being a refuge for muslims, so before jumping to conclusions it may be worth considering that ISIS might be deliberately trying to stir up anger against the refugees.
As for the Egyptian passport that some of the more right-wing papers claimed was "found on the body of a bomber", it turns out to belong to a critically injured victim. He's in hospital with horrific injuries and the Daily Mail is smearing him as a terrorist just because of his nationality. Not cool.

According to the guardian, which is the prime source for emotional feel good pieces on what ISIS is not saying.

It's funny that you actually believe the propaganda when the logistics of it make no sense whatsoever.

Right, so I posted how:
*ISIS fought for the Turkish border
*Has been working in cooperation with human traffickers (earlier on I even posted how the human traffickers were toting serious artillery in Libya because of their connections)
*How ISIS fighters have already been caught in refugee camps
*How ISIS manuals have described how to exploit refugee status to move throughout Europe
*How thinktanks and ISIS operatives themselves have said they have sent ISIS through Europe by exploiting refugee status
*How Islamist militiants already did this and carried out attacks
*How most are returning not to strike yet, but to spread Islamism as teachers and instructors, not fighters
*How ISIS soldiers from Europe express their intent to return to Europe
And this to you is proof you are right

Every time people see it coming and no one ever acts until it is beyond their power to act.

They've been saying for a long time they've been using the migrant corridors to send fighters to Europe and attack. And then up comes along an attack. We've been catching them amongst refugees already.

if ISIS is not as uneducated and idiotic as you believe, you will not find them - especially with no border checks, you will never know. The reason why I keep posting examples from Britain is because Britain still has border checks and one of the greatest security bureaus in the world, both internal and external and with the English channel separating us from the continent giving us more control to the vetting process of refugees. What we can't catch, you sure as hell won't - and what we do, is a blip of what you won't [...] Europe has shit tier security bureaus (France aside) and zero border control outside of the Balkans (hence why you'll note the only ISIS fighters masquerading as refugees so far caught have been caught in Bulgaria or Calais - two places within Europe where borders still exist). Everywhere else? You'll never know! Ever! That one think tank I gave earlier has the more reliable estimate of 1,300 fighters having already made their way back to Europe, but as Britain alone still has 2,000 fighting in Syria I await that number to treble.

*Edited banterlexis out.

Spoiler: They've been saying what they've intended to do for a long, long time (click to show/hide)

[Purple Gorilla]

Comparing GNP with religion is problematic, because it is comparing peoples and not people. Inside a given people, the typical situation is ususally, that atheists are more left-wing and christians or other religions are more right-wing. If you compare german countries, you see, that southern "redneck" countries (Bayern) are wealthy and faithfull, while east german countries (Brandenburg) or megacities (Bremen) are poor and mostly atheist, and the western countries (Rheinland-Pfalz) are inbetween.

It is also interesting, if you look at the biographies of international terrorists. Many, of them are cosmopolitans, who travel the world or study abroad. Al Quaida terrorists like Mohammed Atta or Osama bin Laden were Arab cosmopolitans who lived in may different countries, and had good relationships to the USA - bin Laden was even trained in an american terror-camp. They were exactly that kind of persons, that the economist want as immigrants. The dangerous cosmopolitan islamism from Al Quaida comes from Arabia, while justified local islamism from Hisbolla comes from people in Libanon or Palestine, who just defend themselves against Israel.

Amusingly, there are also rumours, that bin Laden had a large stockpile of american porn ... and the CIA confiscated it for themselves.