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[smjjames]

How do you get to those various forecast track models? Anyway, CNN kind of showed it as 50/50 either swinging out to sea and just giving people gnarly surf or hitting the US somewhere.

That potential disturbance in the western Gulf has disappeared, and that tropical wave behind Irma looks like it'd make a beeline for the South American coast.

[sluissa]

How do you get to those various forecast track models? Anyway, CNN kind of showed it as 50/50 either swinging out to sea and just giving people gnarly surf or hitting the US somewhere.

That potential disturbance in the western Gulf has disappeared, and that tropical wave behind Irma looks like it'd make a beeline for the South American coast.

They're generally available from whoever makes them in the first place, some sites consolidate them. My fave at the moment is http://spaghettimodels.com/.There are certainly others.

[RedKing]

How do you get to those various forecast track models? Anyway, CNN kind of showed it as 50/50 either swinging out to sea and just giving people gnarly surf or hitting the US somewhere.

That potential disturbance in the western Gulf has disappeared, and that tropical wave behind Irma looks like it'd make a beeline for the South American coast.

They're generally available from whoever makes them in the first place, some sites consolidate them. My fave at the moment is http://spaghettimodels.com/.There are certainly others.

Holy information overload, Batman!

[Max™]

As for the environmental stuff, the chemical plant is likely one of the least of the worries, given that the Houston area has a freaking dozen superfund sites. And that's just the Houston area.

Really, the entire area affected by Harvey is a potential environmental disaster area.

Though, as a Texan from the DFW area, I was pretty sure Houston already qualified as one.

Also had fun yesterday since the remnant-icane sloshed over through Memphis and left basically the whole area in a blackout until, well, literally an hour ago?

[smjjames]

New article up from that weather underground site. Basically, it'll take until Wenesday at least before we know for sure where it might hit with any real probablility,

Also, HUGE fire at that chemical plant near Houston. Seems isolated to one building, but um, yeah....

[misko27]

New article up from that weather underground site. Basically, it'll take until Wenesday at least before we know for sure where it might hit with any real probablility,

Also, HUGE fire at that chemical plant near Houston. Seems isolated to one building, but um, yeah....

I have this memory of an interview with what I believe was a firemen or something along those lines (someone from the local government) saying that the worst case scenario was that the plant exploded, then caught fire. well...

Also, casualties are now up to 46. Beaumont, the town hit when Harvey made second landfall, is still without a supply of clean water (despite being largely underwater; I think the earlier discussion upthread about chemicals, fire ants, snakes and gators, and sewers should remind us of the importance of clean water over there).

[RedKing]

New batch of models out for Irma. Good news is that the freakish 170+ mph winds are no longer a thing, but most models still put in the Cat 3-4 range over the next 5-8 days.

The GFS ensemble (which had been showing a more northerly track) now shows tracks which stay to the north of the Caribbean islands and landfall mostly in Florida and Georgia.

Spoiler (click to show/hide)

The European ensemble now has a bit more variety in about half the tracks hitting Cuba and Hispaniola, but on the whole more of the tracks turn north well short of the US East Coast.

Spoiler (click to show/hide)

Both sets however, show Irma still being one bad bitch 9 days from now.

[Folly]

Apparently the models have converged, and all signs now point to a majority of Florida being deep underwater very soon.

I just hope the emergency supply reserves aren't too depleted after Texas...

[scriver]

Keep safe, Florida men and women.

[Frumple]

Huh. Has irma been confirmed as a likely (relatively) heavy rain storm? Last I remember hearing anything on that front it looked like its big problem (insofar as a storm that might hit cat 5 and will probably hit at 3-4 goes) was winds more than particularly heavy rainfall.

Though eh, isp. It can help (for a given definition of help, considering it more means it knocks over your neighbors' houses instead of yours) for a hurricane to hit opposite coast of you, but it often enough only matters so much. Florida is neither terribly wide nor terribly tall. Buffer is something that happens more to other places, ha.

Does hit me for all harvey was a complete bastard and irma's probably aiming at me, I think somewhere in my heart they've made me a bit more relaxed. Basically a decade without any really major hurricanes hitting was making the murphy worshipper hiding in a corner of my soul kinda' jittery. Sky god back to trying to kill the south east, things are getting back to normal.

[smjjames]

Yea, it initially looked like it was going to make a beeline for Miami, and looked at when the last time a hurricane hit Miami, and that was four years ago. Failed to check what hurricane it was or the strength at the time.

Frumple, you live in the panhandle area of Florida, right? In the latest weather underground article, it has some tracks going along the east coast and others the west coast of Florida. Though it'll be until Friday at the very earliest before we can tell for sure where it's going.

The governor has already called for a state of emergency.

[martinuzz]

Tonight, the Netherlands will be hit by Irma. Inhabitants of the Dutch Caribbean islands of St. Maarten, St, Eustatius and Saba brace themselves for hurricane windspeeds.
They won't have the amounts of rainfall like Houston did though, nor is Irma predicted to linger over the island. It is expected the storm will have passed over the islands in 'only' 12 hours.
About 20 years ago, St. Maarten was nearly completely wiped off the map by a hurricane. They just finished rebuilding, I hope they made their buildings slightly more hurricane proof now.

[RedKing]

Umm, even if they did, Irma is at sustained winds of 175mph. It's not just Cat 5, it's Cat 5+.

[smjjames]

That's right now, while it's still over open water. Though it'll definetly shred the Carribean as it moves through, and it remains to be seen how strong it'll be by the time it hits Florida.

Although one track I've seen has it heading towards New Orleans. It'll be days before we see for sure where it heads as far as the US.

[Sheb]

When the Dutch start to have flooding issues, it's time to invest in scuba gear.