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[Frumple]

Here's where I saw reference. Model it's referencing is HWRF12z, which is apparently one of the NOAA's newer modeling systems.

Though re: that peak, NHC done adjusted it up by 5.

[RedKing]

So, basically America's Dong is about to get inserted into the wood chipper? Most tracks I've seen have it swinging up north of Cuba and running more or less right up the length of the peninsula.

Which complicates evacuations, because it means you basically have to leave the entire fucking state, and maybe another state or two for good measure. It's what, a six hour drive from Miami to the Georgia border? WITHOUT traffic?

[Frumple]

That's about right. It's around that from where I am to miami, and I'm less than an hour or two from the borders of either of the other two tristate area members.

E: Though that's with decent to fairly heavy traffic, not light. Still not jesus fuck flee from the giant flying whirligig of death levels of traffic, mind, but it doesn't take a terribly good day to make that kind of time. Or speeding at all, for that matter.

[smjjames]

It'd be best to get away from the coast and, optimally, higher ground, but considering that there's not a lot of 'higher ground' in Florida and you can only get so far from the coast in Florida....

I noticed that the CNN tracks have it hitting Miami or hitting near it. The last time Miami had a hurricane was 2013 I think (having looked at wiki), but not sure when the last time Miami had a major hurricane. Having a hurricane like this hit Miami directly is going to really wreck it, and on top of that, they already face flooding problems just from high tide. The only high ground in Miami are in the buildings.

[Frumple]

Yeaaahh, about the closest you get to high ground is some of the tail end of the appalach up in the panhandle... which only helps so much considering the area's still lousy with waterways. High ground is across the border, heh.

[RedKing]

European models seem to have it hitting on the Gulf side of Florida, the US models have it skirting the Atlantic coast and headed for SC, much like Matthew did.

[smjjames]

It'll be at least until Friday, possibly Saturday, before we can be sure of where it would go.

[nenjin]

Of course my brother decided he had to take a vacation to the keys, now.

I told him last week "It seems like a poor choice to vacation on the coast when there's a hurricane actively hitting the one near to your destination" but there's not much arguing with him. So he just arrived today and is being told he has to leave by Friday at the latest.

[Max™]

I wonder if it's a combination of the instruments being that sensitive and the fact that some of the most powerful ones were decades, some many decades ago.

Also, Tropical Storm Jose has formed behind Irma.

It is entirely due to our ability to measure better and indicative of absolutely zero climate trend and fuck every one of the assholes trying to ride flooded wreckage into another few minutes of fame for being the latest "zomg the climate is fucked" dude on tv when this is actually about to be the second major hurricane to hit the US in well over a decade so the correct implication should be that if it warms up we'll get fewer major hurricanes--as one would expect if the polar/equatorial gradient reduced--goddammit.

The same thing happened with tornado counts incidentally, we went from needing a ship passing a hurricane or tornado path near a populated area to satellites catching literally every single dimple in the tropics and dozens of chasers for every dinky little EF1 that drops out of the sky.

Oh, don't worry, mars is still worse. Particulate dust/sand is amazing and terrible, even beyond the whole unbreathable atmosphere thing.

Even if the atmosphere were oxygen instead of 95% carbon dioxide you'd suffocate since it makes the top of the highest mountain look rich and comfy.

[smjjames]

I took the seismometer thing to be a 'Wow! Interesting!' moment than any sort of panic over climate change. Sort of like when sports fans cheering in a Seattle (I think it was Seattle) stadium managed to register on a nearby seismometer (because nearby Mount Ranier, and Cascadia being a quake zone).

[Folly]

Clearly these hurricanes are Nature taking revenge on Trump because he pulled out of the Paris Accord.

[scriver]

Clearly these hurricanes are the Storm God taking advantage of the situation of that since King Renly was murdered there has not been a Baratheon in Storm's End.

[Rolan7]

Um.  What is the situation for someone in west Florida?  Along the gulf?
We aren't on good terms at the moment but I'm still worried.

[smjjames]

If it turns east, the eyewall could still hit landfall further up the coast, so, even then, the US isn't out of danger of being hit. It'll have to make a pretty hard right turn in order to avoid the US entirely, and models aren't showing that. Well, a few are, but it's not showing for the great majority.

New article showing updated tracks and some other cool images. Apparently there's a potential zone of peak intensity of 210mph in the Florida straits, but that assumes conditions are perfect for strengthening. It also means that the storm will possibly be at peak intensity right as it hits Florida.

Also, it's eye is just humongous: https://twitter.com/GregPostel/status/905230036814454784/photo/1

(how do I embed a tweet into the thread?)

[Frumple]

Don't think the forum has the capability. Could take a screenshot, I guess.

Any case, yeah, along the gulf depends both on which way the storm goes, and exactly where they're at. Generally the further inland and further north you are in this state, the less likely that proverbial woodchipper is going to scrape across your particular bit of geodong.

Less likely is only less, though. Anything lower than the mid to west panhandle and anything that ends up in the thing's direct path (and remember, storms can hop over the state from gulf to atlantic or vice versa relatively easy) probably wants to go ahead and take a irma week vacation somewhere way the hell away, if at all possible. Worst case scenario there, you're out some cash and time (assuming you don't still get 'nadoed or floodsunk further inland regardless, anyway). Best case, you don't get pureed along with your neighborhood.

... 'course, it ain't possible for a lot of folks. Maybe go buy a used mattress or two (pretty good to hide under in whatever the deepest part of your residence is), enough boarding and tape to keep your windows from becoming impromptu room blenders, get the usual supplies (few days/week or two of drinking water, non-perishable food, containers to fill with water for non-drink stuff, etc.), do the usual the-sky-is-going-to-try-to-kill-me-worse-than-usual dance. Hunker down and hope, heh.