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Author Topic: Bring Your Own Picture 3 - This Exhibit is Closed - GAME OVER SCUM VICTORY!  (Read 48750 times)

FallacyofUrist

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Re: Bring Your Own Picture 3 - Day 1 - Day at the Museum
« Reply #150 on: August 15, 2015, 09:33:44 pm »

I care about bad reasoning always- if it gets in the way of logical analysis we don't want it, now do we?
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flabort

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Re: Bring Your Own Picture 3 - Day 1 - Day at the Museum
« Reply #151 on: August 15, 2015, 11:06:13 pm »

Congratulations. You managed to make me laugh. Properly. That is not easily done.
Very good.

Flabort
Is there a reason people don't usually claim day one, and admit to lying in their first post on day one? Would you count wine as something solid enough to chew on? Is there a reason townies don't usually use WIFOM as a weapon, or lie? Don't you think that some shadows have more substance than others later in the day?
There are lots of good reasons for a regular game. However, this is a BYOR-style game and there are a whole range of tactics we can use. I maintain that carefully leaked partial claims can be a powerful tactic for town.
Breadcrumbing is acceptable, yes. Typically in a more inscruitable fashion, but this was outright claiming and lying; it's frustrating that you have a point here, but a good point nonetheless. And we can use the information gathered from it if you flip.

Quote
As for judging my reaction:
A towny would fear being lynched because they know it's a mislynch. A towny would fear being killed at all because it would make the wincondition of someone else, typically the mafia, more fulfilled, which would in turn make the towny's wincondition harder to fulfill. It also makes a towny's wincon harder to fulfill if they can't participate in hunting the scum anymore. I'd like to avoid being lynched right away before I can do anything meaningful, and I'd like to avoid attracting a daykill for the same reason.
A willingness to give your life for the cause would be townier, but I understand where you're coming from here.
Well, worst comes to worst I can give my life for the town, but in the best case scenario I won't have to; I'd like to avoid dying for nothing, and make my death worth something before I do. The best way to do that is avoid dying for as long as I can.

Quote
For now I'm just going to Finger of Suspicion NQT.
Moving image with .jpg extenstion
How did you do that?!

Brief Assessment of Everyone So Far

Town For Now

flabort - Lots of chunky posts. Verbalises reasonable suspicions. Is open about mistakes. Good fit for town.
I'm flattered. Thank you.

Teneb If you had an effigy of me, what would you be doing with it?
I'd be wondering why I had an effigy of you in the first place.
*Shrug* Let's say it arrived in the mail for unknown reasons without a return address.
You'd be ignoring it or giving/throwing it away, then, with no use for it.

And then flabort...
Yeah you can see what happens if I list everyone down. But I'm listing everyone down -_-
Anyway, I feel secure in noting Flabort above the rest in towniness, but that's first impressions (more on due to the length and breadth [mmm, bread] and detail in his posts).
I am glad you find my posts detailed. Do you remember when my posts were mostly fluff? :P

Spoiler: Flabort Questions (click to show/hide)
Waitaminute, there aren't any questions in that post. Dangit.

I'll still respond, though.
First: Why don't you like it? I gave my reasoning earlier in this post. Or maybe I didn't. In case I didn't, I'm going to give it again- NQT is, quite scummy, quite... let's say suspicious, and that's so obvious that if you're not going after him I'd like an explanation for why not.
Secondly: There's a point to that, but what if he's lying about the reads because he doesn't want town to win?
Thirdly: There are other lynch candidates, not necessarily better ones. Hm... (no, summing the scumminess is not valid logic.)
Re: First: It seems like you're threatening people who disagree with you over something that has not been empiracly proven yet; Furthermor, you didn't give your reasoning; you gave your opinion about needing him gone, dialoged with Taw about his actions, spoke about a future event, and possit a theory about NQT's alignment; I don't see any reasoning or evidence.

Re:Secondly: Then if he dies and flips scum, we look at his reads like he was probably lying. It's what we normally do with reads when someone dies.

Re:Thirdly: OK, summing all of them is not valid. I conceed that. It doesn't even make sense to me now.

So let's throw out a few more questions.
Everybody:
Do you believe Jack's claim? (I have no reason to doubt it, but no proof in his favor either, I'll need to wait until tomorrow for results and whatnot)
Why do you think NQT dropped the WIFOM bomb in the first place? (I still think he's some villain of some sort who dropped it to cause confusion)
Who do you think are the top 3 most productive scum hunters? (I may be slightly biased in my favor here, but: [flabort, FoU, and Tawarochir].)

1) His three-part investigate-NQT maybe-by-killing-him claim? Would you believe me if I said "It doesn't matter to me right now"? If he carries out the test succesfully, then there's no reason not to believe him; he'd just be confirmed to have a kill, which may or may not make him scum. If he doesn't, then it means he doesn't have a kill, which means either his scum buddies outvoted him, or he was just town trying to psyche NQT out. Either way, whether I believe it or not, it tells me nothing about his alignment.

2) Because 4mask is no longer the crazy gambit guy, NQT is the crazy gambit guy now. NQT opened the last two games with crazy gambits. I'm getting used to it now.
Anyways, the particular gambit that NQT opened up with was dropped because of exactly why he said: to open conversation. It worked, didn't it?

3) Deus Asmoth, NQT, Tawarochir

Flabort:
Spoiler: Flabort (click to show/hide)

I think he was deliberately trying to get the result. Claims beget claims; whenever somebody claims, it brings out evidence that causes more claims become nessesary. Typically you don't see this until day 2 or 3, but it's the driving force behind mass claims. This may not be the soundest logic, but it's what I've observed.

Yes, that's the reason I did that; you know me a little better than I know myself. I think I can trust your reads (for now) if you post them. Do you feel like posting a reads list?

Well, it's a way to get information, and it automatically publishes it's results. It's an austoundingly simple ability that fits what you've claimed. The simplest option is usually the right one.

I'm afraid I don't understand the questions about the key step I missed. Which actions were noted?

I'm reluctant to suspect you because as far as I'm concerned you've done very little to warrant my suspiciouns. However, I felt like I was being pressured into picking a top suspect and voting. I'm starting to get a clearer picture now, though, and I'll share my new suspect later.

Unvote

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FallacyofUrist

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Re: Bring Your Own Picture 3 - Day 1 - Day at the Museum
« Reply #152 on: August 15, 2015, 11:15:38 pm »

"Re:First:stuff".

I think if you'd read back a few posts you would have seen my reasoning as to attacking NQT.

If you don't want to go back searching, here it is(summarized): "Nobody creating that much WIFOM deliberately is likely town. Why would any townie want to cause mass confusion?" Thankfully, the confusion is wearing off, but it left NQT suspicious in my eyes.

And what would you do if NQT died and his role flip was obscured? (about his reads, that is.)

And really? NQT is the crazy gambit guy now? I thought he was all logical... eh, that's history.

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flabort

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Re: Bring Your Own Picture 3 - Day 1 - Day at the Museum
« Reply #153 on: August 15, 2015, 11:30:33 pm »

Spoiler: Flabort Questions (click to show/hide)
Waitaminute, there aren't any questions in that post. Dangit.

I'll still respond, though.
First: Why don't you like it? I gave my reasoning earlier in this post. Or maybe I didn't. In case I didn't, I'm going to give it again- NQT is, quite scummy, quite... let's say suspicious, and that's so obvious that if you're not going after him I'd like an explanation for why not.
Secondly: There's a point to that, but what if he's lying about the reads because he doesn't want town to win?
Thirdly: There are other lynch candidates, not necessarily better ones. Hm... (no, summing the scumminess is not valid logic.)
Re: First: It seems like you're threatening people who disagree with you over something that has not been empiracly proven yet; Furthermor, you didn't give your reasoning; you gave your opinion about needing him gone, dialoged with Taw about his actions, spoke about a future event, and possit a theory about NQT's alignment; I don't see any reasoning or evidence.
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The Cyan Menace

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FallacyofUrist

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Re: Bring Your Own Picture 3 - Day 1 - Day at the Museum
« Reply #154 on: August 15, 2015, 11:34:44 pm »

Threatening? I'm not threatening, I'm simply stating facts. Not giving a good reason for not voting NQT will earn you my suspicion. Is there anything wrong with that?

" "Nobody creating that much WIFOM deliberately is likely town. Why would any townie want to cause mass confusion?" "
~~~
When your posts get so long that it's hard to know if you typed/did/wrote/said earlier in the post, that's a sign you need to simplify.
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Tawa

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Re: Bring Your Own Picture 3 - Day 1 - Day at the Museum
« Reply #155 on: August 15, 2015, 11:49:20 pm »

Threatening? I'm not threatening, I'm simply stating facts. Not giving a good reason for not voting NQT will earn you my suspicion. Is there anything wrong with that?
Complete bullshit. If a cop tells you "If you break the law, I'm going to arrest you," that's both a statement of facts and a threat. Not mutually exclusive. Don't try to push your ideas like that, because it's going to earn you everyone's suspicion.
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4maskwolf

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Re: Bring Your Own Picture 3 - Day 1 - Day at the Museum
« Reply #156 on: August 16, 2015, 12:11:59 am »

In a bit... I take it you'll be looking back through the thread for a bit, or writing another post...
No, it was I had to go offline for quite some time, and I don't have long enough to condense my thoughts right now.  I'll continue in the morning.

flabort

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Re: Bring Your Own Picture 3 - Day 1 - Day at the Museum
« Reply #157 on: August 16, 2015, 12:15:25 am »

OK, I didn't quote that to correct anything. I quoted that because: Look at the green text.
Although now that I think of it I was reading this post looking for your reason as stated, when it was This post I quoted. Well, that's my mistake; you are right, I may need to simplify, though I suspect you were referring to yourself.


And what would you do if NQT died and his role flip was obscured? (about his reads, that is.)

And really? NQT is the crazy gambit guy now? I thought he was all logical... eh, that's history.
If his roleflip were obscured, I would go mad. The last few games I played have involved obscured role flips in one way or another, not to mention obscured flips do not help the town. I would have to approach his claims similar to if he were alive; that is, not as he is now, but as if he had survived past the point where he died; only I would have to seek and question those who caused him to flip.

NQT is known for his logical conclusions, and his highly skilled analysis. Gambits are considered to be calculated risks, which to pull off succesfully requires a very logical mind. 4mask only pulls(/ed) gambits "when I can be assured there is more chance of it succeeding than not".

Threatening? I'm not threatening, I'm simply stating facts. Not giving a good reason for not voting NQT will earn you my suspicion. Is there anything wrong with that?
I'm surprised you missed that the first time you read through it. You would be excused for missing it, if you had not replied to the sentence in which it was contained. This leaves you on shaky grounds credibility wise. I can overlook it for now, Fallacy.

As far as I'm concerned, there is no good reason to say "I'll suspect you if you disagree with me". One of the key aspects of Mafia, as a game, is disagreement. It's another way of furthering the greater knowledge of the collective, by presenting both sides of an argument. I can tell you right now that trying to shut down conversation is going to make people upset with you. I concede that you DID in fact ask for reasons why we disagreed with you, but then you didn't ask for reasons why anyone would agree with you. It's like you just assumed that people would agree with you that NQT was scummy, and that would be the end of that, wouldn't it Fallacy?

" "Nobody creating that much WIFOM deliberately is likely town. Why would any townie want to cause mass confusion?" "
Perhaps their ability benefits from it. Or perhaps confusion was not the intent: I can think of several things that a townie would like to gain during a conversation, especially scum-slips and town-tells, and the best way to generate discussion and conversation? Do something unexpected.

PPE: Thanks Taw. Succinctly put.
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The Cyan Menace

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Deus Asmoth

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Re: Bring Your Own Picture 3 - Day 1 - Day at the Museum
« Reply #158 on: August 16, 2015, 12:32:01 am »

FoU, the BYOR is the one I meant to link. NQT started acting strange on day 1, making people think he was a jester.

Jack, since I don't know what your test is, I don't really have an opinion on it.
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zombie urist

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Re: Bring Your Own Picture 3 - Day 1 - Day at the Museum
« Reply #159 on: August 16, 2015, 12:58:15 am »

Votecount:
Tiruin -
Teneb - Deus Asmoth
TheDarkStar -
Deus Asmoth -
FallacyofUrist - flabort
Lidku -
Jack AT -
Tawarochir -
4maskwolf - Jack AT
flabort -
notquitethere - TheDarkStar

Not voting: Tiruin, Lidku, Tawarochir, 4maskwolf, Teneb, FallacyofUrist
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The worst part of all of this is that Shakerag won.

FallacyofUrist

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Re: Bring Your Own Picture 3 - Day 1 - Day at the Museum
« Reply #160 on: August 16, 2015, 09:54:43 am »

Threatening? I'm not threatening, I'm simply stating facts. Not giving a good reason for not voting NQT will earn you my suspicion. Is there anything wrong with that?
Complete bullshit. If a cop tells you "If you break the law, I'm going to arrest you," that's both a statement of facts and a threat. Not mutually exclusive. Don't try to push your ideas like that, because it's going to earn you everyone's suspicion.
Noted. Thank you for explaining it to me, that makes sense.

It's like you just assumed that people would agree with you that NQT was scummy, and that would be the end of that, wouldn't it Fallacy?
Completely true. I expected that people would agree with me. It seems, however, that I'm going to need more evidence. Perhaps I should read back through the thread a few times to dredge up a more thorough case against NQT or someone else.

You may notice a small *&* symbol at the bottom of some of my posts.

*&*

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Would you like to play a game of Mafia? The subforum is always open to new players.

FallacyofUrist

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Re: Bring Your Own Picture 3 - Day 1 - Day at the Museum
« Reply #161 on: August 16, 2015, 10:50:19 am »

For !!science!!!

Okay. Let's hunt NQT...

Spoiler: NQT's WIFOM BOMB (click to show/hide)
It seems unlikely to me that NQT would lie about all 5 of these claims. Assuming at least one of them is true...
Let's go over the claims.

Claim one: If someone targets him at night, that someone gets poisoned. Poisoning can cause death. So what happens if someone inspects him? Infection. Kills him? Infection. Tracks him? Infection. Does something to him? Infection. If he's telling the truth about this one, it's a great defense-nobody wants to die as a result of their own action. If he's lying, perhaps he choose to say this as protection from inspections or kills during the night.
Regardless of whether he's telling the truth or lying about this one, it seems like a third-party tell. Not necessarily a hostile SK or doom speaker or something similar, but third-party nonetheless. As for the possibility of being scum... hm. He could be scum, but I don't think scum would want to cause that much attention to themselves. Then again, NQT could know that and use it accordingly... hm. Either way, it doesn't seem likely that he's town.

Claim two: Submitted jester, got town with jester-themed role. I think this claim is what claim five referred to, because the other 3 claims say "third party, possibly hostile" and this one is plain "I am town". I could be wrong, but this claim, overall, doesn't fit with the picture the others paint.

Claim three: A two-shot day-kill that can only be used on people who have voted for him. Again, a defensive(primarily) ability. Seems unlikely but possible to me. Why? Two-shot day kill. The targeting restriction isn't much of a restraint. And I'm going to say it again: a defensive ability. Claims 1, 3, and 4 are all claims, that if true, offer protection(in general. It's like saying: "don't target me with your vote, don't target me at night, and if I die you'll not know who I was".) Lo. Of course, he could be claiming these defenses because he wants to see who is bold enough to target him, thus being more likely town, but I don't think that's as likely.

Claim four: If he dies, the role flip will be messed with. We are going to be soooo confused if he was telling the truth about this one and he dies. Again, says "don't kill me or lynch me, it's not worth it". Now that this comes into play, it seem more likely to me that NQT is a lying survivor trying to protect himself best as possible rather than a villainous SK or scum or what have you.

Claim five: At least one of the other claims is false. As stated above, I believe this applies to at least claim two, but per the NQT survivor hypothesis, it may apply to most of the others. A poison defense for the night and a kill defense for the day, plus a role flip breaker... defenses.

Or NQT could be lying about everything in the claim.
This blasted WIFOM. Let's hope the night reveals NQT's true colors, but for now I'm going to keep my vote off him and seek out someone else to assault.
~~~
I judge my list of claims to be a sufficient warning if a warning is necessary. I don't want to full claim because withholding information is a powerful advantage. Investigations aren't the only kind of night action, but given that the infection rate is low and only triggers on the following night this shouldn't be a sufficient dissuasion for a committed investigator if they truly suspected me.
We can assume that at least part of NQT's claim is a lie.
I really wish I had an inspection. That would make everything so much clearer for me after this night.
I would inspect NQT if I had an inspection, despite the "poison", which may or may not be a lie.
~~~
Assuming NQT's semi-innocence, who else is there to target?

Let's throw out a reads list. Or what's close enough to one.

Spoiler: It be the reads list! (click to show/hide)
Perhaps I'll take a gander at what little TheDarkStar has posted.
~~~
... talk about what little. I count 3 posts from him. So much for any decent read.
~~~

Who is the least suspected player in the game?(in your opinion.)
Bah, I need more activity.

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FoU has some twisted role ideas. Screw second-guessing this mechanical garbage spaghetti, I'm basing everything on reads and visible daytime behaviour.

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Tawa

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Re: Bring Your Own Picture 3 - Day 1 - Day at the Museum
« Reply #162 on: August 16, 2015, 11:59:32 am »

flabort seems like he's getting the least criticism out of everybody else, so I'd have to say him.
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Deus Asmoth

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Re: Bring Your Own Picture 3 - Day 1 - Day at the Museum
« Reply #163 on: August 16, 2015, 01:47:46 pm »

FoU, I think I'm sensing a bit of confirmation bias here. You're acting as though you've decided that NQT has to be scum and are searching for things that support that idea without considering that he's also provided quite a lot of information for other players to work with.
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FallacyofUrist

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Re: Bring Your Own Picture 3 - Day 1 - Day at the Museum
« Reply #164 on: August 16, 2015, 02:05:56 pm »

Hm. Hmm... hm.

True enough, that WIFOM bomb sparked off a lot of conversation and hopefully evidence come a later day.

Hm. At this point(read the rest of my previous post), I'm searching for other scum possibilities. Which is quite difficult when everyone's acting town to some degree.

Assuming NQT's semi-innocence, who else is there to target?
And that is the question. The answer is "everybody else". No, a better question would be "who has acted the scummiest, for the moment?" Assuming NQT's innocence... Then I get to a point of "everyone is equally town." I wish I had more experience for reads. But perhaps... let's throw out some more questions.

Tiruin, if some madman locked your vote so you could only vote for Jack or Deus Asmoth, who would you vote for?
Teneb, who is the least suspected player right now?

*&*
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FoU has some twisted role ideas. Screw second-guessing this mechanical garbage spaghetti, I'm basing everything on reads and visible daytime behaviour.

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