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Author Topic: Beginner's Mafia LV: Masked Trouble - Scum Victory  (Read 48738 times)

Urist McCoder

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Re: Beginner's Mafia LV: Masked Trouble - Maybe here (6/9)
« Reply #435 on: July 30, 2015, 09:09:51 am »

Urist McCoder, who are the two you believe are most likely to be Scum?
I think hazard and shakerag are the most likely scum. I think hazard is scum because he seems to be lurking. but I think shakerag is more likely to be scum because 4maskwolf post almost nothing. and the things that shakerag has posted has almost all been in his ic voice. It seems to me that shakerags post have had very little scum hunting, but It still looks like he is contributing a ton because he is posting in his ic voice.

Tawochir, I think you are the least scummy, after graknorke you have been the most dedicated scum hunter. You have never jumped on a vote for no reason. All of your arguments have been your own and they have been well thought out.
Why me? Why not Loud "Text Wall J'accuse" Whispers?
[/quote]
Here's why loud whispers posted the one text wall, other then that his activity has been on the lower side of normal. you however have maintained a fairly even level of posting. you also have not shown any level of anxiety when people attack you.
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notquitethere

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Re: Beginner's Mafia LV: Masked Trouble - Maybe here (5/9)
« Reply #436 on: July 30, 2015, 10:34:03 am »

All other things being equal, at MYLO the usual best course is not to lynch: if you mislynch then you will lose, while waiting another night allows the scum to eliminate one of the suspects, ideally leading to an easier choice the next day.
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Shakerag

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Re: Beginner's Mafia LV: Masked Trouble - Maybe here (6/9)
« Reply #437 on: July 30, 2015, 10:37:23 am »

Urist McCoder:
I think hazard and shakerag are the most likely scum. I think hazard is scum because he seems to be lurking. but I think shakerag is more likely to be scum because 4maskwolf post almost nothing. and the things that shakerag has posted has almost all been in his ic voice. It seems to me that shakerags post have had very little scum hunting, but It still looks like he is contributing a ton because he is posting in his ic voice.
Wait wait wait wait wait.  You say you think H4zardZ1 is scum "because he seems to be lurking" but you just said, not very long ago, "And while I think lurking is worse , I don't necessarily think it is a scum tell".  H4zardZ1 practically didn't post on D2 and that seems to be because of RL issues and he almost replaced out.  D3 he seems to be not posting because he's throwing a temper tantrum (voting for yourself like he did is a strong indicator of that).

So, 1)  Make up your mind about whether lurking is scummy or not.
2)  4maskwolf did replace out.  Usually people who have to replace out ... tend not to post much because they have something interfering with their ability to post and participate in the game, hence why they replace out.
3)  You honestly think I've posted more in my IC voice than my in-game voice?  I honestly do not think that is an accurate statement, and you're not backing up your claim with any proof. 
[And if the dead IC would back me up a bit more, I wouldn't have to spend as much time in IC voice mode.]
4)  Furthermore, optimal MYLO play (at least in a beginner's game) is to vote "no lynch".    Scratch that.  See below.

[Why vote "no lynch" at MYLO?  You have three town and two scum.  If there is no lynch, the game goes to night, the scum kills a townie in the night, and now you star-  ahh, fuck.  Nevermind, I'm a moron, this isn't MYLO, it's LYLO.  MYLO would be 4 town and two scum (or three town and one scum).  Carry on!]



Okay then.  Need to switch gears from MYLO mindset to LYLO mindset. 
Urist McCoder I'm feeling is likely town.  His behavior has pretty much said "clueless newbie" to me all game.  Which makes me think he's likely not getting coached by a scum IC. 
So that leaves two of Tawarochir, Loud Whispers, and H4zardZ1 to be the scumteam. 

H4zardZ1 - Possibly town.  Also gave off a bit more of the "clueless newbie" aura, but not as strongly as McCoder.  Had some behaviors that would be odd play for scum, like telling everyone to pressure other players when FoU was the vote leader on D1.  Also he called for an extension when FoU was the clear vote leader on D1.  FoU, as we have seen, flipped town D1.  Could H4zardZ1 been trying to build up some towncred by such actions?  Maybe.  But I don't get that feeling from his posts.  Also, usually scum tend to not throw tantrums and vote for themselves.  Not to say that it couldn't happen though.

Loud Whispers and Tawarochir seem to have been playing fairly well.  Which could be indicative of them receiving help from a scum IC.  Also, they haven't seemed to have interacted much with each other, looking at my notes (which is a potential scumtell, more so for newer players).

Also, NQT (who flipped town) correctly identified FoU as town.  Interestingly, both LW and Tawa jumped on NQT's analysis at the beginning of D2.  NQT also spotted weak town tells in Grak (who flipped town) and McCoder (who I am also inclined to think is town). 

Also also, LW dropped a wall of text on FoU on D2, but then pretty much dialed it in for the rest of the day.  I would like to posit that town would have (or at least, should have) continued probing the other players for leads for the D3 lynch, but (lazy and/or bad) scum just try to set up one mislynch at a time. 

Tawarochir I am feeling is less scummy than LW, but more scummy than H4zardZ1. 

Also, because this is LYLO, if there is still a cop in the game, now would be the time to claim your results. 
If H4zardZ1 is the cop, then we're likely SOL about getting that info.  Unless we want to stall for a forced replacement.
If McCoder is the cop, then I'd really like to hear your inspect results.
If Tawarochir claims to be the cop, I'd be very suspicious.  See below.
If Loud Whispers claims to be the cop, I'd be very suspicious.  See below.

Predictions for a LW/Tawa cop claim:  [And future advice for faking a cop claim and/or trying to spot a fake cop claim]
1) One or both inspections will be of players who are presently dead.  This is the easiest way to fake claim a cop.
2) LW/Tawa claims town inspection on the other.  If you're going to fake claim a cop role, might as well "clear" your scumbuddy.
3) Claiming scum inspection on me.  Because if you're going to fake claim a cop role, might as well try and paint your biggest detractor as scum!
4) Claiming town inspect on McCoder and [dead player/me].  Basically faking results that line up with my perceptions, so as to give me no further ammo and potentially setting up a bus for later.
5) Claiming scum inspect on scumbuddy.  After scumbuddy is thrown under the bus and flips scum, that faked cop claim is very, very hard to tell apart from a real cop claim.  Potentially ballsy, but also can potentially pay off very well.

And there are likely a few other permutations, but those are the main ones. 

[Also, always ask for reasons as to why a player inspected (or performed any night action) on another player.  Go back to the day before that night action was claimed.  If PlayerA claims they inspected PlayerB on N1, did PlayerA seem to think PlayerB was suspicious?  Look for glaring inconsistencies between the reasons a player gives for who they targeted and what they did during the day before.]



[Teneb, why didn't you catch my MYLO error?  D:]



[Not only did you ninja my post, but you didn't catch the error either, NQT.  I am disappoint.]

Tawa

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Re: Beginner's Mafia LV: Masked Trouble - Maybe here (5/9)
« Reply #438 on: July 30, 2015, 11:43:01 am »

Here's why loud whispers posted the one text wall, other then that his activity has been on the lower side of normal. you however have maintained a fairly even level of posting. you also have not shown any level of anxiety when people attack you.
Lol wut? Loud Whispers has been significantly more active than I have. Why are you lying about basic, observable facts like this?
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Loud Whispers

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Re: Beginner's Mafia LV: Masked Trouble - Maybe here (5/9)
« Reply #439 on: July 30, 2015, 08:00:46 pm »

Unvote Urist McCoder, vote Shakerag.
It is interesting to me that you have declared Urist McCoder to be a townie, based off of perceivable noobiness. What noobiness have you perceived? You gave no reason. Already you've written off someone for no declared reason. H4zarD1 you write off because they voted for themselves. Odd, as that rules out nothing - whether it is a result of H4zarD1 quitting due to RL obligations rather unceremoniously or quitting due to H4zarD1's interactions with you, even I can tell there is nothing orthodox about a Townie or Scum doing that. So that's another person ruled out for dubious reasons. Then you focus in on the two most ardent scrub scumhunters and declare the fervent scumhunting as evidence of a scum team. Playing fairly well = Scumtell? Ha! Is someone getting scared of being caught? Sounds like it. And yeah you're right NQT correctly identified FOU as town through statistics and experience whilst I incorrectly assuaged FOU's newby panicking as deliberate lies through inexperience, but more to the point - McCoder, Taro and I were all convinced FOU was scummy because he was doing his best to appear scummy, and no one else appeared as scummy because of this and 4maskwolf and H4zarD1 lurking; as you said, it is better to scumhunt than lynch the lurkers, as you can always deal with the lurkers later. All the same, you only mention Taro and I. You also fail to mention NQT incorrectly identifying HLG as scum, whilst I was the one correctly guessing HLG was much more likely just being a newby Town. I.e. you're cutting out everything that suggests I'm town and substituting it with nothing but your opinion, which you're certain is sufficient to lynch me on.
Loud Whispers and Tawarochir seem to have been playing fairly well.  Which could be indicative of them receiving help from a scum IC.
Good scumhunting = You are scum
Also, they haven't seemed to have interacted much with each other, looking at my notes (which is a potential scumtell, more so for newer players).
I haven't interacted with Taro in the sense that I haven't asked Taro many questions, because I'm pretty sure Taro is town. I also haven't asked H4zarD1 many questions, you many questions, HLG many questions, Graknorke many questions or NQT many questions either. Furthermore Taro's been questioning me; I don't think the trust is fully mutual. And on that other point, the way I see it, the only thing better than having scum IC coaching is to be an IC scum. One who is playing fairly well; you? I'll go with yes. If you were scum you could assert authority through your greater experience and sit back giving advice and bants in great walls of text without actually really saying much about yourself, which is what you have done. And frankly I still don't know myLOS from LYLOS, any coaching is sorely missing from my game.
Also also, LW dropped a wall of text on FoU on D2, but then pretty much dialed it in for the rest of the day.  I would like to posit that town would have (or at least, should have) continued probing the other players for leads for the D3 lynch, but (lazy and/or bad) scum just try to set up one mislynch at a time. 
I dropped the wall of text because I was done; I had my convictions, I didn't have much spare time - but in truth, even if I did whatever else I could have done wouldn't have surmounted to much, as I had no other hunches beyond FOU. And you've seen my wall of text, it was so fucking huge it made you sick - does not strike me as lazy, and by your own admission I've been playing fairly well. I was damn certain of any of two things; that either FOU was scum, or lynching him would remove a town trying to look scum.
Tawarochir I am feeling is less scummy than LW, but more scummy than H4zardZ1.
[No reasons given beyond muh feels]
Also, because this is LYLO, if there is still a cop in the game, now would be the time to claim your results. 
If H4zardZ1 is the cop, then we're likely SOL about getting that info.  Unless we want to stall for a forced replacement.
If McCoder is the cop, then I'd really like to hear your inspect results.
If Tawarochir claims to be the cop, I'd be very suspicious.  See below.
If Loud Whispers claims to be the cop, I'd be very suspicious.  See below.
Plus I do like how any evidence which would verify that I am clearly town is to you, further proof I am scum, so much so that were I to reveal I were cop...
Predictions for a LW/Tawa cop claim:  [And future advice for faking a cop claim and/or trying to spot a fake cop claim]
1) One or both inspections will be of players who are presently dead.  This is the easiest way to fake claim a cop.
2) LW/Tawa claims town inspection on the other.  If you're going to fake claim a cop role, might as well "clear" your scumbuddy.
3) Claiming scum inspection on me.  Because if you're going to fake claim a cop role, might as well try and paint your biggest detractor as scum!
4) Claiming town inspect on McCoder and [dead player/me].  Basically faking results that line up with my perceptions, so as to give me no further ammo and potentially setting up a bus for later.
5) Claiming scum inspect on scumbuddy.  After scumbuddy is thrown under the bus and flips scum, that faked cop claim is very, very hard to tell apart from a real cop claim.  Potentially ballsy, but also can potentially pay off very well.
...You even have these ballsy predictions naming myself as scum! As if you know me to the bone! Well, you'd be right on one thing, and that is if I revealed I were the cop I'd be scum. Not because of your "predictions" which are just an assertion I'm scum with no evidence, but because earlier on I've said I'm not the cop and I'm not the jailor.
Furthermore McCoder is suspicious to me but has validated himself enough because my initial suspicions before that he was bandwagoning have been disproven to me by McCoder taking an active stance in scumhunting and presenting his own opinions, not just the opinions of others. Taro has been actively scumhunting whilst posting the reasons behind his thinking, and has still so far not given me reason to doubt he's not town. H4zarD1 has given me very little, and the same goes for you and 4maskwolf. I know very little of you, because either of you 2 (3?) have answered many questions for various reasons. Earlier on for example, Tarowachir asked 4maskwolf a simple question - how do you explain your absence, no reply.
And can we not forget this?
4mask
NQT: Erm... what?  That logic used for voting me is troll logic at best, and makes absolutely no sense.
I was asking an unnecessarily leading question but my vote isn't a troll move. I'd like answers to my questions.
This is right before 4maskwolf swapped out. I'm not questioning the sportsmanship of 4maskwolf, I'm saying someone may have been looking out for 4maskwolf or following instructions. NQT spotting Graknorke's town tells is nothing just because Grak was a shining beacon of Town, and HLG was a dud. But FOU? That was a job well done, NQT got it spot on - and NQT was putting the pressure on 4maskwolf, and NQT got lynched. Also suspect is that when 4maskwolf was active, they didn't actually do that much scumhunting - more often than not they'd just appear and tell someone to get more active, conveniently bringing the attention off of them whilst allowing others like FOU to dig a hole deeper for themselves. Seems like someone pitting town against town, being as evasive as possible. It seems curious to cheer on the sidelines getting everyone else to scumhunt whilst doing no scumhunting in person. And then the successor comes along and tries to get the most active scumhunters lynched whilst writing off the most suspicious. For all I know H4zarD1 could be your scumbuddy, and you could be a lonely scum, or Tawarochir is your scumbuddy; it'd make sense to lynch me whilst distancing yourself from him by putting him ineffectually on #2 in the last round. Humorously 4maskwolf said earlier that the scum were likely to have distanced themselves so well that the scum would have to be found one by one. You've been putting more distance than the marathon between you and everyone and their uncle, none moreso than Tawarochir, whilst defending McCoder and H4zarD1 and calling for my lynching. My actions have spoken clearly to the town that were, up until now, but only not to you - for reasons unspoken, only asserted.

Shakerag

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Re: Beginner's Mafia LV: Masked Trouble - Maybe here (5/9)
« Reply #440 on: July 30, 2015, 10:29:55 pm »

Goddamn, Loud Whispers.  You've never heard that "brevity is the soul of wit", have you?

I always bitch to myself about players not posting very much and giving so little to work with and then you come along and remind me to be careful of what I wish for; I might just get it.

Oy.

Anyway, I'll respond to your panicky defense tomorrow, scumbag.  Also you never answered my question to you from earlier.

Urist McCoder

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Re: Beginner's Mafia LV: Masked Trouble - Maybe here (5/9)
« Reply #441 on: July 31, 2015, 06:36:58 am »

shakerag I really would like to hear why you so fervently believe loud whispers is scum

my current list of who I think is scum from most likely to least likely
shakerag
h4zard
[loud whispers]
[tawochir]

the brackets mean that I think loud whispers and tawochir are tied for least scummy
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Shakerag

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Re: Beginner's Mafia LV: Masked Trouble - Maybe here (5/9)
« Reply #442 on: July 31, 2015, 09:08:51 am »

Urist McCoder:
shakerag I really would like to hear why you so fervently believe loud whispers is scum
Dude.  Are you even reading my posts?  I explained why I think he is scum when I voted him. 

Urist McCoder

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Re: Beginner's Mafia LV: Masked Trouble - Maybe here (5/9)
« Reply #443 on: July 31, 2015, 09:53:03 am »

I was hoping that you had more reasons then they are playing well and not talking to each other.
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Shakerag

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Re: Beginner's Mafia LV: Masked Trouble - Maybe here (5/9)
« Reply #444 on: July 31, 2015, 09:56:40 am »

I was hoping that you had more reasons then they are playing well and not talking to each other.
That's not all I wrote.  Try again.

Teneb

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Re: Beginner's Mafia LV: Masked Trouble - Replacement Needed (5/9)
« Reply #445 on: July 31, 2015, 12:04:31 pm »

Votecount

H4zardZ1[1]: H4zardZ1
Shakerag[2]: Urist McCoder, Loud Whispers
Loud Whispers[1]: Shakerag

Day ends if 24 hours pass without a vote change, or when the players vote to end the day.

H4zardZ1 has not responded to the prod. I'm setting them up for replacement... whenever one appears.
« Last Edit: July 31, 2015, 01:36:31 pm by Teneb »
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What if “slammed in the ass by dead philosophers” is actually the thing which will progress our culture to the next step?

Shakerag

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Re: Beginner's Mafia LV: Masked Trouble - Steroids are bad! (7/9)
« Reply #446 on: July 31, 2015, 12:20:27 pm »

I've read through the thread once, and I intend to go back over it. Add me as a replacement.

(Unless you specifically need a replacement IC. I'm new to forum Mafia.)
???

Urist McCoder

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Re: Beginner's Mafia LV: Masked Trouble - Replacement Needed (5/9)
« Reply #447 on: July 31, 2015, 12:59:56 pm »

teneb loud whispers is voting for shakerag not him self
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Urist McCoder

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Re: Beginner's Mafia LV: Masked Trouble - Replacement Needed (5/9)
« Reply #448 on: July 31, 2015, 01:06:51 pm »

shakerag can you please quote the part that you feel explains your reasoning. Rereading all of your posts what seems to have happened is that you replaced  in and immediately started bickering at loudwhispers and now you are accusing him of being scum without any real evidence. And I personally really like loud whispers walls of text, because I am no ferret sir shakerag.
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Teneb

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Re: Beginner's Mafia LV: Masked Trouble - Steroids are bad! (7/9)
« Reply #449 on: July 31, 2015, 01:17:51 pm »

I've read through the thread once, and I intend to go back over it. Add me as a replacement.

(Unless you specifically need a replacement IC. I'm new to forum Mafia.)
???
I seem to have overlooked that while doing the votecount. Also thanks, Urist, for pointing out my mistake in the count itself.
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Monstrous Manual: D&D in DF
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