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[mainiac]

Kasich's best chance for some kind of miracle, but it's not going to be enough to stop Trumpzilla.

I find it weird that the assumption on prediction markets and 538 seems to be that once Kaisich drops out Rubio can finally beat Trump head to head instead of once Rubio drops out Kaisich can finally beat Trump head to head.

[Shadowlord]

Well, someone saw that coming with Trump as far back as the 17th: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/02/17/donald-trump-is-now-the-republican-partys-establishment-lane-candidate/

@maniac: Kasich is more conservative than he lets on.

... which probably has nothing to do with whether he can beat trump or stay in the race.

The pundits seem to think he's only got a chance in the midwest states that he's putting effort into, iirc.

[smjjames]

I seriously doubt Sanders is going to up and quit after Super Tuesday, and it's going to be a bloodbath on both sides.

Anybody else want to bet that Carson drops out after Super Tuesday? Even if he DOES make it to the convention, I don't know what the rules are for the convention (other than I've heard that you need to have won at least 8 states to be considered for nomination), I seriously doubt he is going to be able to wield any influence other than maybe direct his delegates towards someone and I don't see him getting more than a handful of delegates.

[mainiac]

The pundits seem to think he's only got a chance in the midwest states that he's putting effort into, iirc.

Mhmm, meanwhile it's assumed that Rubio will just start winning all these places his ground game is nonexistant as soon as it's one on one.

Kaisich is like the perfect anti-Trump candidate.  He exudes self control, he is at the center of the conservative movement successes, he has a sterling resume, he hasn't made himself enemies.  Rubio dilutes the message, he has enemies, he isn't known for self control and his resume is spotty.  Kaisich can say "I have proven the blueprint for what the republican party can do" and then when Trump attacks him the argument is on exactly the terms Kaisich wants.  Rubio says that and Trump has tons of dirty laundry to tear into.

I seriously doubt Sanders is going to up and quit after Super Tuesday, and it's going to be a bloodbath on both sides.

I expect this race to go until one candidate or the other has a majority through pledged delegates (so ignoring super delegates) but I think everything we've seen so far points to the Queensberry Rules being followed.

[MetalSlimeHunt]

More importantly, Kaisich is the gestalt godhead of Ohio, an advantage we cannot dismiss in the face of the growing likelihood of Indiana.

[Shadowlord]

Anybody else want to bet that Carson drops out after Super Tuesday? Even if he DOES make it to the convention, I don't know what the rules are for the convention (other than I've heard that you need to have won at least 8 states to be considered for nomination), I seriously doubt he is going to be able to wield any influence other than maybe direct his delegates towards someone and I don't see him getting more than a handful of delegates.

Judging by what he's done previously, he's going to "ask God" and if "God" says to stay in, he'll stay in, even if it flies in the face of all reason.

[smjjames]

The pundits seem to think he's only got a chance in the midwest states that he's putting effort into, iirc.

Mhmm, meanwhile it's assumed that Rubio will just start winning all these places his ground game is nonexistant as soon as it's one on one.

Kaisich is like the perfect anti-Trump candidate.  He exudes self control, he is at the center of the conservative movement successes, he has a sterling resume, he hasn't made himself enemies.  Rubio dilutes the message, he has enemies, he isn't known for self control and his resume is spotty.  Kaisich can say "I have proven the blueprint for what the republican party can do" and then when Trump attacks him the argument is on exactly the terms Kaisich wants.  Rubio says that and Trump has tons of dirty laundry to tear into.

Kasich has to start actually winning states and delegates before he can get the nomination.

I seriously doubt Sanders is going to up and quit after Super Tuesday, and it's going to be a bloodbath on both sides.

I expect this race to go until one candidate or the other has a majority through pledged delegates (so ignoring super delegates) but I think everything we've seen so far points to the Queensberry Rules being followed.

Queensberry Rules? (yes, I looked that up on wiki) Only on the Democrat side. I can only see an all out brawl on the Republican side, unless we see Trumps self-described negotiating prowess at work.

As far as ignoring superdelegates, it would be nice if those people who are counting the delegates and showing them (CNN, Politico, etc) would show the superdelegate numbers separate from the delegate totals rather than lumping the superdelegates with the regular ones. If only to at least give the impression that it isn't totally rigged.

[wierd]

I am currently very disappointed with the election so far.  Things are shaping up to be my nightmare ticket (Trump vs Clinton) and I really dont like that.

I seriously doubt trump will lose ground in the midwest states. I happen to live in the middle of flyoverland USA, and the local grassroots bending in the wind says Trump.

I may need to see about learning French, so I can emmigrate to Canada.

[mainiac]

Kasich has to start actually winning states and delegates before he can get the nomination.

Right now Rubio has 10 and Kasich 5 to Trumps 67.

I may need to see about learning French, so I can emmigrate to Canada.

Dont you mean Mandarin?

[wierd]

No, that would be if I was exported to China.



(The Canadian immigration people have Bilingual French/English as one of their requirements, along with 50k cash, and a marketable job skill that is in demand in Canada.)

[mainiac]

China, Vancouver, what's the difference?

[RedKing]

Kasich's best chance for some kind of miracle, but it's not going to be enough to stop Trumpzilla.

I find it weird that the assumption on prediction markets and 538 seems to be that once Kaisich drops out Rubio can finally beat Trump head to head instead of once Rubio drops out Kaisich can finally beat Trump head to head.

Why? Rubio has twice the delegates Kasich has (although 10 to 5 is meh at this point), and Rubio has finished 3rd, 5th and 2nd. Kasich has finished 6th(t), 2nd and 5th. Kasich may be a more electable candidate, but the Republican rank-and-file doesn't care about electability (just ask Jon Huntsman). They want "fire in the belly". And Trump has a fucking furnace full of it, even if it's mostly manufactured for entertainment purposes.

The bigger wtf for me is that anyone still thinks the establishment can stop Trump at this point. I would say there's still the chance of a self-inflicted wound, but Jesus H. Christ in a handbasket: WHAT COULD HE POSSIBLY DO? Rip off a puppy's head and shit down its neck on live TV? His supporters would just say "That puppy had it coming! I heard tell that puppy was a Moo-slime!"

I liked Kasich, but he's beginning to pander to the Right (signing a bill this weekend to kill Planned Parenthood funding in Ohio, for instance). So yeah...

@smjjames: If Bernie only wins a couple of states on Super Tuesday, he's going to be so far behind in the delegate race that it'll be nearly mathematically impossible to win. Granted, Clinton could always suffer a self-inflicted wound (and is much more capable of suffering real impact from doing so than Trump), but the window is rapidly closing for Sanders. Nevada may have been the killer. And if not, then the black vote certainly will be. Sanders simply can't win in states like Michigan, Maryland or anywhere in the South without doing a whole hell of a lot better with black voters.

EDIT: I'm rescinding the line above that I struck through. I was not aware that NONE of the Democratic primaries are winner-take-all anymore. Everything's proportional. So a lot of 55-45 wins for Clinton wouldn't necessarily inflate her lead all that mch (superdelegates notwithstanding).


EDIT#2: And by contrast, 27 GOP contests (accounting for 61% of total delegates) are either winner-take-all or winner-take-most (like SC). Which means that a fractured field benefits Trump massively. As long as Cruz stays in and keeps splitting the anti-Trump vote with whomever, Trump could plateau at 35-40% and take home a huge share of delegates.

Among the winner-take-all states:
California (172 delegates)
New Jersey (51 delegates)
Indiana (57 delegates)
Pennsylvania (71 delegates)
Ohio (66 delegates) -- This would be Kasich's hope to strike back, but it's not until March 15
Florida (99 delegates) -- Likewise, this could be Rubio's chance to strike back, but likewise on March 15.

There are no GOP winner-take-all primaries prior to March 15, but a number of states have a winner-take most system like SC. If Trump carries those solidly on Super Tuesday, he could have a lead large enough that losing Ohio and Florida (and even Texas) wouldn't be that big a blow.

[mainiac]

They want "fire in the belly". And Trump has a fucking furnace full of it, even if it's mostly manufactured for entertainment purposes.

But all Rubio is ever going to be is a poor second best to Trump in that regard.  Kasich can at least claim the right to look down on Trump.  He can point to his record and ask who the hell Trump thinks he is to come in and ruin everything.  Rubio can't do that because Rubio doesn't actually have a record to run on.  Trump would salivate at the prospect of Rubio trying to run on his weak sauce record.

[Shadowlord]

EDIT: I'm rescinding the line above that I struck through. I was not aware that NONE of the Democratic primaries are winner-take-all anymore. Everything's proportional. So a lot of 55-45 wins for Clinton wouldn't necessarily inflate her lead all that mch (superdelegates notwithstanding).

Death by a thousand cuts is still death, though.

P.S. I think I saw an article which said Clinton and Sanders are 51-51 for pledged delegates.

[mainiac]

P.S. I think I saw an article which said Clinton and Sanders are 51-51 for pledged delegates.

They are.