Kasich's best chance for some kind of miracle, but it's not going to be enough to stop Trumpzilla.
I find it weird that the assumption on prediction markets and 538 seems to be that once Kaisich drops out Rubio can finally beat Trump head to head instead of once Rubio drops out Kaisich can finally beat Trump head to head.
Why? Rubio has twice the delegates Kasich has (although 10 to 5 is meh at this point), and Rubio has finished 3rd, 5th and 2nd. Kasich has finished 6th(t), 2nd and 5th. Kasich may be a more electable candidate, but the Republican rank-and-file doesn't care about electability (just ask Jon Huntsman). They want "fire in the belly". And Trump has a fucking furnace full of it, even if it's mostly manufactured for entertainment purposes.
The bigger wtf for me is that anyone still thinks the establishment can stop Trump at this point. I would say there's still the chance of a self-inflicted wound, but Jesus H. Christ in a handbasket: WHAT COULD HE POSSIBLY DO? Rip off a puppy's head and shit down its neck on live TV? His supporters would just say "That puppy had it coming! I heard tell that puppy was a Moo-slime!"
I liked Kasich, but he's beginning to pander to the Right (signing a bill this weekend to kill Planned Parenthood funding in Ohio, for instance). So yeah...
@smjjames:
If Bernie only wins a couple of states on Super Tuesday, he's going to be so far behind in the delegate race that it'll be nearly mathematically impossible to win. Granted, Clinton could always suffer a self-inflicted wound (and is much more capable of suffering real impact from doing so than Trump), but the window is rapidly closing for Sanders. Nevada may have been the killer. And if not, then the black vote certainly will be. Sanders simply can't win in states like Michigan, Maryland or anywhere in the South without doing a whole hell of a lot better with black voters.
EDIT: I'm rescinding the line above that I struck through. I was not aware that NONE of the Democratic primaries are winner-take-all anymore. Everything's proportional. So a lot of 55-45 wins for Clinton wouldn't necessarily inflate her lead all that mch (superdelegates notwithstanding).
EDIT#2: And by contrast, 27 GOP contests (accounting for 61% of total delegates) are either winner-take-all or winner-take-most (like SC). Which means that a fractured field benefits Trump massively. As long as Cruz stays in and keeps splitting the anti-Trump vote with whomever, Trump could plateau at 35-40% and take home a huge share of delegates.
Among the winner-take-all states:
California (172 delegates)
New Jersey (51 delegates)
Indiana (57 delegates)
Pennsylvania (71 delegates)
Ohio (66 delegates) -- This would be Kasich's hope to strike back, but it's not until March 15
Florida (99 delegates) -- Likewise, this could be Rubio's chance to strike back, but likewise on March 15.
There are no GOP winner-take-all primaries prior to March 15, but a number of states have a winner-take most system like SC. If Trump carries those solidly on Super Tuesday, he could have a lead large enough that losing Ohio and Florida (and even Texas) wouldn't be that big a blow.