Speaking of assumptions, from all the flamewars/discussions going on in the Russian internet and mass media nowadays, it appears as though a fairly large chunk of population genuinely does support Russia and Ukrainian Separatism on their own volition, making well-educated arguments that make it clear that they don't believe propaganda. Similarly, a lot of pro-Ukrainians are posting inane, furious comments that make UR and Gogis sound like bastions of moderation. I honestly think that instead of simple propaganda campaign we've got a full-blown schism that started way before Putin had made his move, before the Maidan even.
I know UR will probably disagree with me, but Ukraine was not united against Yanukovich - far from it, some parts and people openly supported him even during the whole Euro-agreement scandal. Likewise, different regions of Ukraine were always unequally represented in the government, and it is plausible that the coming of Central-Ukrainian Maidanians to power was a catalyst that spurned their long-time opponents, the Crimeans and the Donbassians, to oppose them and want radical measures, such as separation.
In short, I believe that Putin has capitalised on the division between the different peoples and regions of Ukraine and only deepened it, rather than outright causing it.
I still don't support him, mind you, and still consider the Maidan a shining example of a people heroically overthrowing a dictator, but I do think that the divide between the Crimeans and the Central-Ukrainians, hell, between the loyalists and the separatists, goes way deeper than what was created by Putin and his propaganda, and that separatists do have some legitimate or, at least, rational reasons to dislike Maidan.
And yes, I think that the various hooligans and protesters in Ukraine are either local or imported civilian fanatics with Russian arms and support, not soldiers. Soldiers would be better organised and would've captured more important stuff by now.