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Until I figure out how to un-close it, at least.

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So yeah.

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Total Members Voted: 0

Voting closed: May 01, 2014, 02:06:40 pm

[Sinistar]

mainiac:
I would love to know where you get your information. Honestly. Because seems like my sources are not nearly as informative as yours. A quick search for photos returned nothing conclusive, only the already disscussed "bearded Russian soldier" and J. Kerry saying somethin-something about evidence they might have.
So yeah, I need to widen my horizons. Any suggestions?

Sean Mirrsen
Well, I for one find your post here far from rude. And I think you nailed it with your last post. I think we should all try to do less assuming, more discussing in a calm way. You keep posting.

[Guardian G.I.]

mainiac:
I would love to know where you get your information. Honestly. Because seems like my sources are not nearly as informative as yours. A quick search for photos returned nothing conclusive, only the already disscussed "bearded Russian soldier" and J. Kerry saying somethin-something about evidence they might have.
So yeah, I need to widen my horizons. Any suggestions?

Sean Mirrsen
Well, I for one find your post here far from rude. And I think you nailed it with your last post. I think we should all try to do less assuming, more discussing in a calm way. You keep posting.

From what I've understood, our dear comrade mainiac mostly cites the US State Department announcements and American media that cites them, like New York Times.
However, diplomats and the governments represented by them aren't particularly obliged by any higher authority to tell the truth (...ahem, ahem, Colin Powell's vial...) and that applies both to America and Russia. All statements by all foreign ministries of countries involved in a political crisis should be taken with a grain of salt, even then US State Department whose reports have always been highly trustworthy, as the Iraq War shows us

[GlyphGryph]

As a general rule, or maybe as a rule of thumb - I don't know exactly which is more appropriate - I find it rudest to assume.

Then you are an incredibly rude person, since you've made pretty insulting assumptions about Ukraine multiple times throughout your posts here, and then argued that you wouldn't even accept evidence to the contrary.

From what I've understood, our dear comrade mainiac mostly cites the US State Department announcements and American media that cites them, like New York Times.
However, diplomats and the governments represented by them aren't particularly obliged by any higher authority to tell the truth (...ahem, ahem, Colin Powell's vial...) and that applies both to America and Russia. All statements by all foreign ministries of countries involved in a political crisis should be taken with a grain of salt.

From the actual evidence I've seen, the presence and influence of Russians (real, non-Ukranian Russians) in these militia groups is pretty much irrefutable. Mainiac's claims that they are Russian military and being organized by the Russian government, however, is not something I've seen hard evidence for - it's certainly a possibility, but not something we can take as fact.

The Russian government is clearly supporting them, openly, however, with it's threats against the Ukraine if they act against them, and yeah, it seems likely they are arming them as well... So the question about whether they are directing them is a bit academic.

Is there anything in the following statement you don't believe is true, or would like to see evidence for, or what like to provide evidence against?
The Russian government is supporting militias made up at least in part of Russian citizens entering the Ukraine to ferment unrest.

[XXSockXX]

From the actual evidence I've seen, the presence and influence of Russians (real, non-Ukranian Russians) in these militia groups is pretty much irrefutable. Mainiac's claims that they are Russian military and being organized by the Russian government, however, is not something I've seen hard evidence for - it's certainly a possibility, but not something we can take as fact.

Yeah, that's it, no NATO government has stated that they are Russian military. It's a possibility, but I'm sure international reaction would be different if it was proven beyond doubt that this is another stealth invasion.

The Russian government is clearly supporting them, openly, however, with it's threats against the Ukraine if they act against them, and yeah, it seems likely they are arming them as well... So the question about whether they are directing them is a bit academic.

It is an important difference. If they are local rebels with some Russian citizens (not necessarily in any official capacity), who have political and logistical support from Moscow, they are going to behave differently. They might be more reckless, but also less organized.
If it was a secret Russian military operation, then it would clearly be a preparation for invasion, which would be much worse.
While it is still a possibility that Putin wants to use the rebels as a pretext for invasion, it seem to me that they are not getting direct orders, because so far they haven't captured much of importance and have made some stupid moves, like taking hostages.

[smjjames]

Where did they get some of their equipment though? I mean like the armored vehicles, aside from the ones that got grabbed from the Ukranian military.

They could be old soviet stuff, but I wouldn't know the difference between an older soviet APC and a modern one.

[Ukrainian Ranger]

Nah, APCs are that 6 donated by our paratroopers. Other weren't reported

Meanwhile in Odessa ~30 dead.... 5 Pro-Ukraine, mostly football ultras, others are (pro)-Russians that learned hard way that Southern Ukraine is not Eastern Ukraine.

[smjjames]

Football ultras? and I meant before the Ukranian APCs were captured, there was footage of the pro-russians with some military vehicles.

Also, Crimea would be considered southern Ukraine as well.

[XXSockXX]

Both the US and the EU are going to implement wider sanctions soon, but my guess is that Putin is buying time. At the end of the month there will have to be negotiations about the gas deliveries to Ukraine and to the EU, with Ukraine unwilling and unlikely to be able to pay the new, much higher prices Gazprom is demanding. With the EU's gas supply for next winter in danger, that might slow down the sanctions process.
So the longer this goes on, the more Kiev will lose control and thus there will likely be a more favourable outcome for Russia, namely more political influence in Ukraine, even if they don't want to invade or annex parts of the country, which remains to be seen.

Also, Crimea would be considered southern Ukraine as well.

No, the South is the south-western corner around Odessa.

Meanwhile in Odessa ~30 dead.... 5 Pro-Ukraine, mostly football ultras, others are (pro)-Russians that learned hard way that Southern Ukraine is not Eastern Ukraine.

30? That sounds bad, media here have only reported the one so far.

[Knit tie]

Speaking of assumptions, from all the flamewars/discussions going on in the Russian internet and mass media nowadays, it appears as though a fairly large chunk of population genuinely does support Russia and Ukrainian Separatism on their own volition, making well-educated arguments that make it clear that they don't believe propaganda. Similarly, a lot of pro-Ukrainians are posting inane, furious comments that make UR and Gogis sound like bastions of moderation. I honestly think that instead of simple propaganda campaign we've got a full-blown schism that started way before Putin had made his move, before the Maidan even.

I know UR will probably disagree with me, but Ukraine was not united against Yanukovich - far from it, some parts and people openly supported him even during the whole Euro-agreement scandal. Likewise, different regions of Ukraine were always unequally represented in the government, and it is plausible that the coming of Central-Ukrainian Maidanians to power was a catalyst that spurned their long-time opponents, the Crimeans and the Donbassians, to oppose them and want radical measures, such as separation.

In short, I believe that Putin has capitalised on the division between the different peoples and regions of Ukraine and only deepened it, rather than outright causing it.

I still don't support him, mind you, and still consider the Maidan a shining example of a people heroically overthrowing a dictator, but I do think that the divide between the Crimeans and the Central-Ukrainians, hell, between the loyalists and the separatists, goes way deeper than what was created by Putin and his propaganda, and that separatists do have some legitimate or, at least, rational reasons to dislike Maidan.

And yes, I think that the various hooligans and protesters in Ukraine are either local or imported civilian fanatics with Russian arms and support, not soldiers. Soldiers would be better organised and would've captured more important stuff by now.

[Ukrainian Ranger]

Football ultras

Yeah, those Eastern European radical fans. It all started when Pro-Russians attacked a column of fans of fans of two football clubs that marched with peaceful march and singed a song with words that can be translated as "Putin is a dick"

One of fans was killed with gunfire, news spread like fire, tens of thousands of residents of the city rushed there... And with police running away (hope they'll go in jail for that) the end result was predictable

[smjjames]

Football ultras

Yeah, those Eastern European radical fans. It all started when Pro-Russians attacked a column of fans of fans of two football clubs that marched with peaceful march and singed a song with words that can be translated as "Putin is a dick"

One of fans was killed with gunfire, news spread like fire, tens of thousands of residents of the city rushed there... And with police running away (hope they'll go in jail for that) the end result was predictable

If the police are as corrupt as you say they are, they'll probably just get bonuses for running away.

Also, was it like roughly half the city pro-russian and half pro-ukranian or what was the ratio?

As for the, um, schism, I don't know how fractitous Ukraine is, but the western and central part seem pretty solid.

[Guardian G.I.]

Meanwhile in Odessa ~30 dead.... 5 Pro-Ukraine, mostly football ultras, others are (pro)-Russians that learned hard way that Southern Ukraine is not Eastern Ukraine.

30? That sounds bad, media here have only reported the one so far.

According to RIA Novosti, Ultras have set the pro-Russian camp at Kulikovo Pole on fire, Russian supporters fled to the nearby trade union building, which also caught fire. It is unclear what caused it. End result - 38 people suffocated and died.

[Knit tie]

Oh, don't even get me started on football fans. Hooligans doesn't even begin to describe them. I remember how, after "Dynamo" lost a match, their fans spilled onto the street, dragged everyone who didn't look Russian enough out of shops, cafes and metro stations and took turns kicking them in the stomach. Only thing I could do to help was run into every place down the street and tell people to hide.

I wouldn't be surprised if both Russian and Ukrainian fans were equally psychotically violent.

[stabbymcstabstab]

Aren't all Euro football fans fucking insane and all around horrible people?

[smjjames]

Aren't all Euro football fans fucking insane and all around horrible people?

^
This, at least the ones who DO go around acting like that. I hear British soccer fans are especially notorious and have been banned from a couple countries. It's also a problem in South America.