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Author Topic: UR's Post-USSR politics megathread  (Read 309678 times)

Helgoland

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Re: Uprising in Ukraine
« Reply #630 on: February 21, 2014, 06:04:25 am »

...isn't that particular thing a standard though? obama is the supreme commander of the us armed forces for instance but normally stuff is being led by generals
Hell no! The only body that can command the German military is our parliament; the chancellor can't do squat without its approval. In a presidential system, this is usually different, though.

Also, German media report that police units from Western Ukraine have arrived on Maidan to defend it! I guess the protesters would be foolish not to press on right now.
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Ukrainian Ranger

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Re: Uprising in Ukraine
« Reply #631 on: February 21, 2014, 06:23:28 am »

It's rather simple

a) Parliamentary opposition wants to rule one way or another
b) European politicians want to bring Ukraine in European sphere of influence out from Russian. I am not naive to think that they are worried about dead Ukrainians more than let's say, dead Syrians. They need to pretend to care more because of public opinion but that is all
c) Ukrainians want to get rid of the current political system and punish the ones responsible for deaths

A and B totally compatible with the deal
C is not

It is minor ad Hitlerum  but it is like if Allies started negotiations of peace with condition like having elections in Germany or replacing Hitler with Goering
« Last Edit: February 21, 2014, 06:26:23 am by Ukrainian Ranger »
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Helgoland

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Re: Uprising in Ukraine
« Reply #632 on: February 21, 2014, 07:34:37 am »

I am not naive to think that they are worried about dead Ukrainians more than let's say, dead Syrians.
Oh, they are. They don't give a shit about dead Syrians, but you guys are at least the same color as them. Plus they kinda have to maintain the pretense that all of Eastern Europe became a democratic wonderland after 1990, which is not too compatible with blood flowing in the streets.
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Arguably he's already a progressive, just one in the style of an enlightened Kaiser.
I'm going to do the smart thing here and disengage. This isn't a hill I paticularly care to die on.

Ukrainian Ranger

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Re: Uprising in Ukraine
« Reply #633 on: February 21, 2014, 08:36:09 am »

Helgoland, Surely EU* wants to prevent the war and will put all of it's political resources on that

They don't want gas pipes being blown up
They don't want to lose a large market (countries with civil wars are bad customers)
They don't want millions of refugees on their territory
And so on.

It is good that European Politicans want no war in my country. But I am afraid that they are ready to tolerate unacceptable things to ensure peace

*Here I mean politicians, not Europeans as a whole
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XXSockXX

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Re: Uprising in Ukraine
« Reply #634 on: February 21, 2014, 08:41:58 am »

It is good that European Politicans want no war in my country. But I am afraid that they are ready to tolerate unacceptable things to ensure peace
Well, if we're being cynical, the most important short-term interest for the EU is not to get overrun by refugees in case of a civil war, which would probably happen with Poland, Slovakia, Hungary and Romania all bordering Ukraine. These countries seem to have been pushing for a more coherent approach by the EU and Poland has taken a leading position in the negotiations.

In terms of unacceptable things...it seems like there is some urgency to find a solution before it all breaks down. Some things might be the price to end the bloodshed. Other things might still get done later. There are voices in the EU too who want to see Yanukovych in court. Tymoshenko got jailed after her term as Prime Minister too, so why not Yanukovych? (if he doesn't flee of course)

It's not that clear, but it looks like the opposition might agree to the compromise. Maybe there have been changes, initially the elections were proposed for next winter, which is obviously way too late for the protesters. It hasn't been signed yet, but looks like it will.

The Russian mediator doesn't want to sign the agreement either. Also there is some sabre-rattling over Crimea now, which means that a break-up of the country should better be prevented sooner than later.

Also the Vice-Chief of the army has resigned to prevent escalation. And there are more rumors about regime people leaving the country, protesters even try to contol access to the airports now, to see who's running off with his money.

EDIT:
Seems like the Maidan council has accepted the terms.
Terms are:
- coalition government in 10 days, with participation of the opposition
- return to 2004 constitution in 48 hours, constitutional reform until September
- presidential elections until December

I've read earlier that parliament is also debating amnesty, no idea if that's part of the deal.
« Last Edit: February 21, 2014, 08:57:44 am by XXSockXX »
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Ukrainian Ranger

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War must be, while we defend our lives against a destroyer who would devour all; but I do not love the bright sword for its sharpness, nor the arrow for its swiftness, nor the warrior for his glory. I love only that which they defend.

10ebbor10

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Re: Uprising in Ukraine
« Reply #636 on: February 21, 2014, 09:20:05 am »

So, it's over?
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XXSockXX

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Re: Uprising in Ukraine
« Reply #637 on: February 21, 2014, 09:21:32 am »

The Polish foreign minister has been filmed telling a protest leader: "If you don't support this [deal] you'll have martial law, you'll have the army. You will all be dead."
I bet the tone behind the scenes was very rough. But apparently a solution had to be found as soon as possible to avoid further bloodshed or an outright civil war.
It's understandable that protesters are not happy with the compromise, it seems very little was achieved if you consider the price that was paid.
Still it would probably have been much much worse with the situation spiraling out of control.

So, it's over?
It should be, but that remains to be seen...
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10ebbor10

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Re: Uprising in Ukraine
« Reply #638 on: February 21, 2014, 09:29:19 am »

Well, it all depends who wins the elections. Won't surprise me if the country does fall apart after all if nothing ends up changing.
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XXSockXX

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Re: Uprising in Ukraine
« Reply #639 on: February 21, 2014, 09:34:09 am »

First of all it depends on how the population accepts the deal. Radical forces are not happy at all with it.

Then it depends on how the government behaves, if they try to backpaddle or anything.

Elections are still far away, the country must make it that far first.

Basically everything that was achieved now would have been good in November, but now people want to see Yanukovych gone.

Apparently the Right Sector has announced that they will continue demonstrations. The people on Maidan seem to remain calm though.
« Last Edit: February 21, 2014, 09:43:29 am by XXSockXX »
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kaian-a-coel

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Re: Uprising in Ukraine
« Reply #640 on: February 21, 2014, 10:02:29 am »

So I found this picture.
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10ebbor10

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Re: Uprising in Ukraine
« Reply #641 on: February 21, 2014, 10:05:02 am »

There was a similar one (different viewpoint) on the front page of the newspaper today.
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olemars

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Re: Uprising in Ukraine
« Reply #642 on: February 21, 2014, 10:17:06 am »

Here's the agreement as signed. Reportedly the constitution has already been rolled back by parliament to the 2004 edition. Everyone arrested for protesting receives amnesty.
I guess everyone is now watching what happens next on the square.

edit:
Spoiler: Text of the agreement (click to show/hide)
« Last Edit: February 21, 2014, 10:22:11 am by olemars »
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Sinistar

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Re: Uprising in Ukraine
« Reply #643 on: February 21, 2014, 10:22:16 am »

--- a wild double appears! ---
« Last Edit: February 21, 2014, 03:09:24 pm by Sinistar »
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Sinistar

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Re: Uprising in Ukraine
« Reply #644 on: February 21, 2014, 10:29:39 am »

This "before and after" is quite interesting too.
I've found some clickable version of this with other pictures but dunno where...I thought it was BBC but I can't find it. Still, quite interesting.

As for breaking news - just heard 2004 resolution passed in parlament, also amnesty for protesters is either discussed or has also passed. (just ninja'd by olemars, dammit :P)
Some baroness (didn't catch her name) from UK I think that was involved in diplomacy talk was answering question earlier and was quite, hmmm, diplomatic when asked if Yanukovych will be removed from the post.

edit: also, there seems to be an open revolt of some parts of the police force. Saw a footage of large group of policemen in uniforms, not riot gear, march on the square, sporting pro-EU armbands.
I think that was actually already posted here, but can't find by whom. ???
Anyways, someone looking like being of a higher rank that other policemen that marched with the others said they will arm the protesters if needed, organize a professional counter-attack if have to.
« Last Edit: February 21, 2014, 03:09:01 pm by Sinistar »
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