Tiruin:
How did you see yourself being a lynch candidate?
I'm perfectly happy to talk through the day. To use both extensions.
To me the puzzle's already mostly solved. Small chance there's actually 2 Scum alive. Small chance Toaster's actually SK.
If both those small chances are true, Town's got a small chance to win. Small enough, ehh. Don't matter. If we currently have 2 Town 2 Scum 1 SK... I don't think Town could win.
So lets write off those smal chances! Lets look at the big chances.
Big chance there's 1 Scum alive and Toaster's our real other night killer - and that Toaster's Town.
That chance seems to be in the 90% range for me. That's great.
If that's true, we have room for a mislynch - I don't need to mind a mislynch.
Everything NQT this game appears Scummy. I'm hard pressed to take any of his posts (there are a few, but only a few) where he doesn't look like Scumspeaking to me. Especially now that I know Caz and Max are Scum.
I have taken the time to read the entire game again. I will be unspeakably shocked if NQT is Town. My entire opinion of his ability to play will drop by about 60%. He is not and has not been playing towards a Town wincon this entire game - if he is Town, I.... Well he wouldn't be the first player I've seen who was Town but who chose to take direct anti-Town actions. But I had thought highly of his ability to play, ability to strategize, and ability to effectively move towards a Wincon of his own chosing. He -is- effectively moving towards a Scum Wincon and away from a Town Wincon - and he's been doing this all game. He's not winning (I don't believe), I don't need to downgrade my opinion of him if he is Scum. He has played reasonably and sanely if his Wincon is anti-Town.
Tiruin, my hopes for you don't need to be said, I assume they are clear. Assuming you are not the lynch today - and I think you are either Town or Third party (not anti-Town), I don't want you lynched today - and if you are an illusionist (I'd be glad if you are), then I hope you read the day end post very closely and determine if -you- think what Meph says means that the remaining threat to Town may still be Scum or if it's 'just' some non-Scum problem.
Toaster is almost certainly a killer, given proof we have a killer and total lack of counterclaim. If you believe a non-Scum threat is the problem, then by all means redirecting Toaster to Persus sounds like a sound and safe strategy to get through the night without any further night kills (given that we eliminate Scum first). If the killer isn't Toaster there's still the 'why would Toaster claim to be a killer-type then?' issue.... there's not many players left. I think Toaster claimed Monster Hunter because he is a Killer-type and very possibly because he is exactly what he says he is.
If we have one Scum left - I feel certain that NQT is Scum. If we leave him alive past this D.... I don't think we're going to be told anything by Meph to make us think the Scum threat is gone. I'd slightly prefer you to redirect -NQT- to Persus to eat the Scum night kill...
But all this goes without saying, I hope. I very much want to see what people determine to be their answers, and I'm in absolutely no rush. I'm not especially curious because I can't think of any questions to ask Toaster that could successfully determine if he's Town or not - and his admitting to being the killer (even if he is an SK) goes far to satisfy me.
See, if Toaster hadn't claimed being a killer type.... maybe it's because it's true that he isn't. I don't know. So the real killer could be anyone else - and I haven't investigated Perses, Tiruin, NQT, or Toaster.
If Toaster (or anyone) -was- the SK.... I expect that no one should claim to be the Killer, and then we'd really be in a pickle.
But I don't see why Toaster would claim to be a killer-type if he is NOT a monster hunter - unless he thought from my words today that I might have investigated him - if he claimed not-Killer and I counterclaimed, that could be a real problem for him. So no more need to hide.... time to say 'I, Toaster, am a good killer' even if Toaster's actually an SK.
But there's enough people left that if Toaster's SK, AND if we lynch Scum today, then we have a great chance of a Town win.
If Toaster's a Town Monster Hunter - then we are even safer. We can afford a mislynch and will still probably win - unless there are 2 scum.
So,
How did you see yourself being a lynch candidate?
Well, you're considering that maybe I bussed Max. If I did, I have to be Scum. I don't know how likely you think that is - NQT chased that for a bit, during the time I had his vote D3... he dropped it - weird if he thought it could be percieved as true, be him Scum or Town - and hasn't picked it back up today, so he apparently feels it's implausable.
But what I care about is a Town win, and I don't care if I die getting there. I 'ran the odds' and I also think that unless we face EITHER 2 living Scum OR 1 living Scum and an SK - We're going to win this, and we have room for a mislynch. (if we face BOTH of those... 2 Scum and an SK, it's already all over except for who actually wins between the 2 antiTown roles)
And I also think that we face only 1 remaining enemy - there's just 1 Scum left, and no other anti-Town roles. That makes me feel comfortable enough to say 'hey, we can afford a mislynch, I think' and to say 'Hey, long as NQT who is certainly Scum dies - I barely care if I live'.
Perses:
Tiruin- She is the second most scummy at the moment, as Illusionist seems like an easy role to fake-claim right now. However, she tunneled Caz fairly strongly for two days straight and helped to lynch him. Other a single vote on Cmega, she's voted confirmed scum. So she seems town.
Only thing that bugs me about Tiruin's claim is it's completely not provable. However, I don't get anything hostile from her, the game doesn't have -room- for her to be anti-Town. But this would be the first S game yet with -no 3rd parties-. It's also the smallest number of players in an S game yet. So I wouldn't be shocked if Tiruin's actually a non-hostile 3rd party.
But that doesn't matter, because Town doesn't need that sort of role dead. And if she is telling the truth - great. Especially if we do face more than one currently living threat to Town - her correct choice of redirection (and the fact that we have a Knight to safely 'eat' a kill without harm to Town) means that if we -do- have 2 baddies to kill.... we actually have a chance to win.
But I do kinda wish we had a night to 'waste', so Tiruin could redirect me and I could learn and report what happens to a Fortune Teller when it gets targeted by an Illusionist. But it'll take the future to figure that one out, if it ever happens.