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[Toaster]

By the way, I am assuming there are three cultists.  With 11p, three cultists balanced out with a vig, bulletproof townie, and a rolecop, this seems reasonably balanced in my opinion.


Tiruin:

Toaster

N3 I didn't buy Toony's sudden switch from Max to Persus.  Prior to NQT changing his vote, Toony was content with the Max lynch and had moved on to questioning others.  When NQT switched to Persus, though...

@Orange: What persuaded you to kill him based on this buying of actions? Is it relevant with the purple?
@Purple: ...And this caused you to kill him..why? It was scummy..how?

Buying such to save a buddy..how?

I thought he was reasonably likely to be scum, so I was willing to off him.  His change seemed a bit sudden, forced, and contradictory.  Yes, the two things you colored are linked.  Since he had moved on, that signaled that he was thinking "Okay, Max is lynched.  Let's start working on the next target for the next day."  This is a reasonable and townlike behavior.  When NQT switched, though, suddenly he's waffling and going back on what he said.  This is not townlike behavior.


NQT:

First off, before I do anything else, Tiruin. No one has counterclaimed Toaster and he's confirmed what Persus said. Thus it's either Tiruin or Imp at this stage, my vote-analysis says Tiruin is guilty and the law of post counts says Imp is not scum (she has the most posts in the game and she's least suspicious by way of vote counts). My vote analysis was right for the rest of the game, so I'm trusting it for now while further analysis is ongoing.

So... process of elimination?  Do you trust your meta-tells enough to lynch over them at this point?

Toaster has murdered three town players: if he is a town hunter he has terrible judgement.

Two.  Also, I love you too.

A hasty mislynch today will cost us the game.

Oh really, now?  Just how many anti-town do you suspect are still out there?

[notquitethere]

Toaster

So... process of elimination?  Do you trust your meta-tells enough to lynch over them at this point?

Almost. They were so right for everyone else. I'm still going to go over things and double check everyone and ask questions because there's time to do so and I want us to get this right.

Toaster has murdered three town players: if he is a town hunter he has terrible judgement.

Two.  Also, I love you too.

Sorry, I should have said 'attempted to murder'.

A hasty mislynch today will cost us the game.

Oh really, now?  Just how many anti-town do you suspect are still out there?

I was assuming the hunter (now confirmed to be you) would follow their track record and kill another town, but yeah it's possible we might still win this if there's a mislynch.

[Toaster]

NQT:  In the case of a mislynch, I would probably hold fire.  It'd be a choice between me deciding the final "lynch" and leaving it up to democracy.

[Imp]

Tiruin, what you say makes sense about 'Only the hunter'?  Your claim works for me, at least at a first read through.  Your reasoning about who you did what to works for me, and why you would pick to do it.  No alarm bells are ringing and your story helps lower my fears of Persus13 actually being our killer (Note I can see reasonable use of Town vig lying to be knight)

Toaster, I'm willing to believe your claim of being a hunter.  I actually thought you were one of the best flavors of investigator with your D2 immediate but never really supported (to my taste) 'case' and vote on Caz - I thought you had gotten information that he was malevolent or were the one that gets to know what faction the target is - and that you were just trying not to out yourself more than you ABSOLUTELY had to on D2.  Because you are claiming to be the hunter, you're also supporting Perses's claim of being the Knight.  Your reasoning looks good and sound to me as to why you picked the targets you picked.

Perses, we have a claimed killer.  My only doubt of you was that you might be the killer hiding as a knight.  That's clearly false - and these two players have supported your claim in their own ways.  You are Town to me.
Here is why I did not immediately claim my results this D:

I too was suspicious of Toony.  I trusted -if- he wasn't the killer, and -if- the killer wasn't Town, Toony was a very good pro-Town kill choice in my thinking.
Here's my never fully posted D3 suspicions list:

Toaster (probably investigator) (Town)
Tiruin (no idea!) (Town)
Persus13 (very likely to be Knight or Monster hunter or anti-Town SK) (Town or Third party)
Jim (no idea!) Null read
Toony (no idea!) Possibly Scum
NQT (very likely to be some type of converter) Nearly Certain Scum
I didn't trust the killer to be Town.  If the killer IS Town we're in great shape, but if the killer is anti-Town we're possibly doomed - we have to get a killing party (the last of the scum or the hunter) out of play today because the two kills is going to kill us otherwise.  Nothing is more important than that.

However if the killer IS town, we're actually fine.  And if there's just one more living Scum, we're fine as long as we lynch that one Scum - if that doesn't end the game, and IF we can reveal the hunter today, then we're fine.  We lynch the Scum today, the game ends or not, if not, there's only one kill tonight (Gone Scum team can't lynch) there's still three players D5, hunter must be SK, other two lynch SK and Town win.

I don't see any flaw in that plan.  -Any-.  So long as we are indeed removing the final Scum today.  If there -are- two Scum left AND the hunter is anti-Town, it's already game over for Town, the only question left is does the Sk or the Scum win.
Assuming the player alignment currently is 2 Scum, 2 Town, 1 SK:

If we lynch the SK, the Scum instantly win, 2 Scum to 2 town and night has started.

If we mislynch a Town, night starts with 2 scum 1 Sk 1 Town... not sure how that would work out but I just don't see a Town win.  Game might go to the next day, but Town can't win that way.

If we lynch one of the Scum, night starts with 1 scum, 2 town, 1 Sk.  Both sides want a kill, at best they kill each other (town win if both kills happen), otherwise it gets more complex but I don't believe Town can win that way.

So as I see it, there's no hope for Town if there's TWO Scum left AND if there's an SK.
If there's 1 Scum left and an SK, this is what I see:

If we lynch the Scum, Night starts with 3 town and 1 SK, D4 starts with 2 town and 1 SK - Pretty sure Town can win from that point, given killer is known identity.

If we lynch the SK, Night starts with 3 town and 1 Scum, D4 starts with 2 town and 1 Scum - if we know who the Scum probably is and we lynch the probable Scum, Town wins.

If we lynch a Town, Night starts with 2 Town, 1 Scum, 1 Sk - that's the same outcome as the final set of the case above - it's an unlikely Town win (requires the two killers to kill each other, to be -able- to both get their kills off as they die.
If there's 1 scum left and 4 Town, we're fine.  We have two tries to find that final Scum, and that second try can come from the Hunter's NK or not.  So long as there's no more than 2 possible Scum candidates, Town has certainly won.
If there's 2 scum left and 3 town, we need both those possible Scum candidates to actually be Scum - one has to be lynched today - Night starts 3 Town 1 Scum, 2 potential kills - as long as the hunter did NOT target Town, even if the Scum gets the kill and the hunter doesn't (worst case scenario) either Town wins that night or the day dawns with 2 Town 1 Scum - given that the most probable Scum is the Scum, Town wins.
So my only worry is that if the non-scum killer is Town - this will be the first S game with ONLY Scum and Town, with no third parties of any type.  I think the only possible third party would be the Killer, given all the claims and how everything's played out.

However, That's only deadly for Town if there are a total of 4 Scum (2 still alive) and the SK - that would make 5/11 baddies (assuming conversion didn't happen... that could explain N1 lack of Scum kill but I sure hope not) and I don't see a game starting with 5/11 baddies (45% not Town baddie!).

So... if the killer is anti-Town... the killer still wouldn't want to claim today.  If there's Two Scum, the killer is probably going to die.  If there's 1 Scum, the Town's probably going to win if they know who the killer is.  So the killer would want to hide still, IF the killer is an SK.  I am SO glad that the killer's not trying to hide today.
So my inspection results from last night:  I picked Toony to investigate.  I picked him because he was the scummiest/sleaziest of the 4 players who had not claimed and I expected to start this D dead.  I wanted to know what I could about him asap - and he could have been our SK - especially if he thought there were probably just two Scum with Max being the second.  We'd only be hunting the killer if we wiped out all the Scum.

My results for Toony, which I checked before I checked the thread (Wanted to see how I died before I saw that I was dead) - Toony was a Watcher, certainly, with the runes of Raven, Moon, and Power.  And I wasn't dead.  I had no 'odd' experiences last night, everything was normal.  I was still suspicious of Toony (watcher's a perfectly fine result for Town or Scum... but Toony was NOT the killer), and then I saw he was dead.  I'm actually -glad- I investigated a warlock; Warlocks were the most difficult of the known roles for me to guess what result they might give to a Fortune Teller.  But I would have been perfectly happy finding that out after game end.

So... for me day started with non-Scum killer unknown, and results that could not possibly pressure the killer into claiming, should that killer not want to.  And I do believe the identity of the Killer needs to be known now if Town is to have a chance to win - I'm SO happy we have a killer claim.  But I refused to release my results immediately because I feared that pressure, the belief that I could counterclaim a lying 'I'm not a hunter' player - would help an unwilling killer reveal themselves to avoid the even worse odds of me possibly counterclaiming them.
To me, I know I'm Town but I can accept that I may be borderline to the rest of you thus possibly actually Scum (if so, I've sure been a bold bold Scum, and my partner Max took my wiping him off the board, in preference to someone claiming to be a knight super calmly... Max must REALLY want to play a different game instead (that rain one maybe) and didn't want to replace, eh? - That insult applies only if I'm Scum - and Max knows if I am or not.  Thank you again, Max, for being very much a gentleman.  I'd love to play again in the same game with you - for me especially your playstyle has a great calming effect, and I feel like I can trust you the player even if I cannot trust your role - You would be a PERFECT IC for BMs I think, if you wanted to do that)

Because the killer claimed, -and- because that killer is Toaster, who I think is very, very experienced, calm, and the sort who thinks far ahead, I'm pretty sure Toaster is Town Hunter.  Toaster's best chance of a win as SK would be to claim anything else (werebear, the PGO, is a known claim that could 'hide' a killer from a fortune teller as another type of killer and probably the best false claim for this circumstance).

So I'm a darn happy player.

I think Toaster, Tiruin, and Perses are all Town, I know I am Town, and I trust that we have two chances to kill NQT, who I'm so very very sure is Scum.  Since I'm this sure that Toaster, Tiruin, and Perses are all Town, I'm even perfectly happy to die today if I am so borderline that most of you, especially Toaster, think I'm likely to be Scum/more likely to be Scum than NQT.

If the decision is to lynch me, my only request is - Toaster - when you see me flip Town Fortune Teller - kill NQT tonight.
Tiruin and Perses - if I flip Town Fortune Teller, there's only one kill N4 and that kill is the disappearance of Toaster (meaning Toaster died before he could kill his target) - lynch NQT.

I think this game is solved, and solved for a Town win.

[Tiruin]

PFP - scathing revelation coming up but then class and bad wake up time for me. I'll try to detail this as best as I can.

NQT

First off, before I do anything else, Tiruin. No one has counterclaimed Toaster and he's confirmed what Persus said. Thus it's either Tiruin or Imp at this stage, my vote-analysis says Tiruin is guilty and the law of post counts says Imp is not scum (she has the most posts in the game and she's least suspicious by way of vote counts). My vote analysis was right for the rest of the game, so I'm trusting it for now while further analysis is ongoing.

...Which means? Your vote analysis isn't expounded/ing despite what you say here. A vote analysis wherein you seem so sure, yes decide to vote me without putting down details.
As in, details + links + explanation.

I've to note that, even in your analysis, in which I poke at your previous post, it doesn't make sense how you suddenly target me from..quite much everything back there. Most reasonable assumption is that you're suspecting Imp, given how your suspicions of her seem like due reason to follow--yet now, you..well, don't interact with her.

My analysis correctly judged Max and Caz to be scum. The same analysis now points to you as being scum. I'm now going back over the specific cases that people have made to see which ones had lynch-weight to them.

Your analysis is a generality--considering that it includes the prospect of Max//Caz to be scum, instead of directly judging them SPECIFICALLY. ie FoS'ing suspects.
I believe the same analysis, on observation, includes me as 'scummy' instead--or are you trying to twist something there? Because that's what I'm feeling on how the direct hop is going.

Edit-Orange:
...Yeah, so you vote me then say that you're going over your notes.
..wat.
You didn't read my posts, did you?

Reasons and case-basis on me, NQT. I'd love to read them.

I recall mentioning on D3 that players I thought were town didn't think Jim's action was a big deal.

Calling it a lie then making it part of a logical reasoning--when said reasoning is discarded as you said yourself--seems like a big deal here.

A hasty mislynch today will cost us the game.

Oh really, now?  Just how many anti-town do you suspect are still out there?

I was assuming the hunter (now confirmed to be you) would follow their track record and kill another town, but yeah it's possible we might still win this if there's a mislynch.

*might*?
Ello, there is 1 scum and 4 town. Mislynch 1, 3 town. NK 1, 2 town. With a Persus being there as honorable proof.

Given that prospect, scum is really hemmed in there--however the choice lies in two things:
1. Surity. There IS the probability of a bus going on since yesterday given how things play out and the scenario I pointed out above. Sure, I can redirect any person who else is the next most probable suspect [Lookin' at you, Persus.], but that could also pertain to what I'm going to say in #2.
2. Special role. We do not know who said person is, and whomever it is hasn't claimed it. Assuming it is scum (for it wasn't claimed is the most basic reason), then countermeasures should be taken given how where I see it..it could be anything.

Re-reading back. Sorry for the brevity here.

EDITCHECK:
NQT..how or why does your analysis reflect differently from...the lynch vote count here?

Analysis 4
In my previous two analytical posts, I successfully predicted the scum-status of Max and Caz. Let's repeat the same procedures and see what we get.

Spoiler: # People Voted Day 3 (click to show/hide)

1: Jim, Tiruin, Imp, Max, Toaster, Persus
2: Toony
3. NQT

Day 3's vote-count results aren't that interesting on their own: Max claimed early and all votes were either for him or the counter-claimants, Persus and Imp. I know that one of the scum must have bussed Max so I'll be looking over at the timings and reasons for each of the votes on him. But first, let's look at the global results for all four days so far (-1 for Persus if you just want Days 1-3)

@bolded part: 'Know'?
..Wait, erk. It was interesting though, how that was worded (..you're the only other voting for Persus) but..bleh. Anyway.

What's with how you format that list anyway? Toony is in a separate box. You are in a separate box.

Toaster

So... process of elimination?  Do you trust your meta-tells enough to lynch over them at this point?

Almost. They were so right for everyone else. I'm still going to go over things and double check everyone and ask questions because there's time to do so and I want us to get this right.

Logic dictates that you leave a vote on me without sustainable evidence, then? Or are you just signalling what 'the vote analysis' leaves?


Also poking thru literary form, ...this would lack foresight given that if Nerjin was anything but good (in which we didn't know but I'm poking it from the futuristic viewpoint), then the high priestesses are in a lot of trouble.

Also that means you saw him breathing..which means he was alive due to respiratory function. Which generally leads to the everything-else-function like circulation . . .Bleh. Putting it aside but..it strikes me as weird how that happened (most @Meph but I've got Priest notes on the before-time)

..Though I haven't read anything on 'visually seeing him [RESPIRE]' anywhoo.
Imp

Here is why I did not immediately claim my results this D:

I too was suspicious of Toony.  I trusted -if- he wasn't the killer, and -if- the killer wasn't Town, Toony was a very good pro-Town kill choice in my thinking.

Reasons behind Toony's note? You could just say it given that I compiled the links to his posts.

To me, I know I'm Town but I can accept that I may be borderline to the rest of you thus possibly actually Scum (if so, I've sure been a bold bold Scum, and my partner Max took my wiping him off the board, in preference to someone claiming to be a knight super calmly... Max must REALLY want to play a different game instead (that rain one maybe) and didn't want to replace, eh? - That insult applies only if I'm Scum - and Max knows if I am or not.  Thank you again, Max, for being very much a gentleman.  I'd love to play again in the same game with you - for me especially your playstyle has a great calming effect, and I feel like I can trust you the player even if I cannot trust your role - You would be a PERFECT IC for BMs I think, if you wanted to do that)

Because the killer claimed, -and- because that killer is Toaster, who I think is very, very experienced, calm, and the sort who thinks far ahead, I'm pretty sure Toaster is Town Hunter.  Toaster's best chance of a win as SK would be to claim anything else (werebear, the PGO, is a known claim that could 'hide' a killer from a fortune teller as another type of killer and probably the best false claim for this circumstance).

So I'm a darn happy player.

I think Toaster, Tiruin, and Perses are all Town, I know I am Town, and I trust that we have two chances to kill NQT, who I'm so very very sure is Scum.  Since I'm this sure that Toaster, Tiruin, and Perses are all Town, I'm even perfectly happy to die today if I am so borderline that most of you, especially Toaster, think I'm likely to be Scum/more likely to be Scum than NQT.

If the decision is to lynch me, my only request is - Toaster - when you see me flip Town Fortune Teller - kill NQT tonight.
Tiruin and Perses - if I flip Town Fortune Teller, there's only one kill N4 and that kill is the disappearance of Toaster (meaning Toaster died before he could kill his target) - lynch NQT.

I think this game is solved, and solved for a Town win.

I'm a silly skeptic so I'll forward the idea (rather than a night plan) of really checking who to lynch today. Sure, guessing that those voting Max may be bussing him instead given the quality of cases against him, and a point is taken on caution in how bussing happens here.

Though if I would propose a night plan (due to time constraints) then I'd suggest that:
> If a mislynch happens, Toaster could go after the second-most scummy person.
> I could EITHER redirect Toaster to Persus or the second most scummy persons to Persus given that matter. Either would most probably result in a:
1:3 - mislynch
= wherein the paths of action would go (most likely?) towards the 1:2 count if stuff goes wrong.

@Purple: Toaster's kill registers as a kill, I believe. So if he targets the last scum, then they both die in a flurry that would match Irony's Werebear days of old.


..Also Toaster has a track record of being a Monster Hunter upon browsing past games. xP Anyway.

How did you see yourself being a lynch candidate?

[Tiruin]

A hasty mislynch today will cost us the game.

Oh really, now?  Just how many anti-town do you suspect are still out there?

I was assuming the hunter (now confirmed to be you) would follow their track record and kill another town, but yeah it's possible we might still win this if there's a mislynch.

Full thoughts on the 'track record' thing, please? By due observation, we see that there're only 2 other roles unclaimed during D4 start.
Me.
And Toaster.
If there was a track record (ie one of you guys lying) then after my claim there should or should not be a hunter claim to hem it in.
...
..
...
"Track record"? And "Kill another Town"?
Clarify.

[Persus13]

I'm not going to go through and pick what to respond to everything said today, but I'll give my thoughts on the current players.

First of, 1 Scum, 4 town seems like the most likely scenario now. No Supernatural Game has had more than 3 scum player, and 4 scum seems insanely unbalanced.

THoughts on the living players, ordered in order of Townie to Scummy

Persus- Town Knight. Every Involved lynch has been of Scum this game. Only voted by 5 other players, two scum, 2 town, 1 unknown. Things are good.

Imp- I'm pretty sure Imp's town. If Imp hadn't roleclaimed, I would have been the one to swing yesterday, as 3 players voted me, one said he would have if Imp hadn't claimed, and scum Imp would have voted me as well, which would have been enough to hang me.

Toaster- I'm fairly confident Toaster is the killer role, and not scum. No one has counterclaimed him.

Tiruin- She is the second most scummy at the moment, as Illusionist seems like an easy role to fake-claim right now. However, she tunneled Caz fairly strongly for two days straight and helped to lynch him. Other a single vote on Cmega, she's voted confirmed scum. So she seems town.

NQT-NQT has seemed scummy to me, mainly for the "no rational reason why Max could fake-claim" business. Max had the opportunity to get away with it, especially as he didn't have to fear the Monster Hunter. He accuses me of voting him for voting me, and he would be exactly right. NQT did everything he could to try and get me or Imp lynched instead of Max lynched, and if he had convinced more than Toonyman, he would have succeeded. I highly doubt that at this stage of the game someone would do an elaborate bus of Max when his lynch of me would have succeeded if it hadn't been for Imp. In addition, the fact that his primary means of voting someone has consistently shown him on top and thus, ultra-town is also suspicious. Another thing that seems suspicious to me is the flavor of NQT's resurrection. The Temple of Death seems something different and separate then normal resurrections, which usually happen in a graveyard. NQT prays to the gods. This gives me a very pagan feel to it. He also said he prayed to the gods. I may be assuming something here (I'm a Christian), but I assumed the priests in this were monotheistic. Finally there's NQT's interactions with scum. D1 he and Max have a huge battle, that then turns into them and Caz ganging up on Nerjin when he took NQT's side. D2 he voted Caz, then switched to Jim. D3 he voted Max, then switched to me. That seems like a guy trying to appear town by voting scum, but avoiding actually following through.

[Imp]

Tiruin:

How did you see yourself being a lynch candidate?

I'm perfectly happy to talk through the day.  To use both extensions.

To me the puzzle's already mostly solved.  Small chance there's actually 2 Scum alive.  Small chance Toaster's actually SK.

If both those small chances are true, Town's got a small chance to win.  Small enough, ehh.  Don't matter.  If we currently have 2 Town 2 Scum 1 SK...  I don't think Town could win.

So lets write off those smal chances!  Lets look at the big chances.

Big chance there's 1 Scum alive and Toaster's our real other night killer - and that Toaster's Town.

That chance seems to be in the 90% range for me.  That's great.

If that's true, we have room for a mislynch - I don't need to mind a mislynch.

Everything NQT this game appears Scummy.  I'm hard pressed to take any of his posts (there are a few, but only a few) where he doesn't look like Scumspeaking to me.  Especially now that I know Caz and Max are Scum.

I have taken the time to read the entire game again.  I will be unspeakably shocked if NQT is Town.  My entire opinion of his ability to play will drop by about 60%.  He is not and has not been playing towards a Town wincon this entire game - if he is Town, I.... Well he wouldn't be the first player I've seen who was Town but who chose to take direct anti-Town actions.  But I had thought highly of his ability to play, ability to strategize, and ability to effectively move towards a Wincon of his own chosing.  He -is- effectively moving towards a Scum Wincon and away from a Town Wincon - and he's been doing this all game.  He's not winning (I don't believe), I don't need to downgrade my opinion of him if he is Scum.  He has played reasonably and sanely if his Wincon is anti-Town.

Tiruin, my hopes for you don't need to be said, I assume they are clear.  Assuming you are not the lynch today - and I think you are either Town or Third party (not anti-Town), I don't want you lynched today - and if you are an illusionist (I'd be glad if you are), then I hope you read the day end post very closely and determine if -you- think what Meph says means that the remaining threat to Town may still be Scum or if it's 'just' some non-Scum problem.

Toaster is almost certainly a killer, given proof we have a killer and total lack of counterclaim.  If you believe a non-Scum threat is the problem, then by all means redirecting Toaster to Persus sounds like a sound and safe strategy to get through the night without any further night kills (given that we eliminate Scum first).  If the killer isn't Toaster there's still the 'why would Toaster claim to be a killer-type then?' issue.... there's not many players left.  I think Toaster claimed Monster Hunter because he is a Killer-type and very possibly because he is exactly what he says he is.

If we have one Scum left - I feel certain that NQT is Scum.  If we leave him alive past this D.... I don't think we're going to be told anything by Meph to make us think the Scum threat is gone.  I'd slightly prefer you to redirect -NQT- to Persus to eat the Scum night kill...

But all this goes without saying, I hope.  I very much want to see what people determine to be their answers, and I'm in absolutely no rush.  I'm not especially curious because I can't think of any questions to ask Toaster that could successfully determine if he's Town or not - and his admitting to being the killer (even if he is an SK) goes far to satisfy me.

See, if Toaster hadn't claimed being a killer type.... maybe it's because it's true that he isn't.  I don't know.  So the real killer could be anyone else - and I haven't investigated Perses, Tiruin, NQT, or Toaster.

If Toaster (or anyone) -was- the SK.... I expect that no one should claim to be the Killer, and then we'd really be in a pickle.

But I don't see why Toaster would claim to be a killer-type if he is NOT a monster hunter - unless he thought from my words today that I might have investigated him - if he claimed not-Killer and I counterclaimed, that could be a real problem for him.  So no more need to hide.... time to say 'I, Toaster, am a good killer' even if Toaster's actually an SK.

But there's enough people left that if Toaster's SK, AND if we lynch Scum today, then we have a great chance of a Town win.

If Toaster's a Town Monster Hunter - then we are even safer.  We can afford a mislynch and will still probably win - unless there are 2 scum.


So,

How did you see yourself being a lynch candidate?

Well, you're considering that maybe I bussed Max.  If I did, I have to be Scum.  I don't know how likely you think that is - NQT chased that for a bit, during the time I had his vote D3... he dropped it - weird if he thought it could be percieved as true, be him Scum or Town - and hasn't picked it back up today, so he apparently feels it's implausable.

But what I care about is a Town win, and I don't care if I die getting there.  I 'ran the odds' and I also think that unless we face EITHER 2 living Scum OR 1 living Scum and an SK - We're going to win this, and we have room for a mislynch.  (if we face BOTH of those... 2 Scum and an SK, it's already all over except for who actually wins between the 2 antiTown roles)

And I also think that we face only 1 remaining enemy - there's just 1 Scum left, and no other anti-Town roles.  That makes me feel comfortable enough to say 'hey, we can afford a mislynch, I think' and to say 'Hey, long as NQT who is certainly Scum dies - I barely care if I live'.

Perses:

Tiruin- She is the second most scummy at the moment, as Illusionist seems like an easy role to fake-claim right now. However, she tunneled Caz fairly strongly for two days straight and helped to lynch him. Other a single vote on Cmega, she's voted confirmed scum. So she seems town.

Only thing that bugs me about Tiruin's claim is it's completely not provable.  However, I don't get anything hostile from her, the game doesn't have -room- for her to be anti-Town.  But this would be the first S game yet with -no 3rd parties-.  It's also the smallest number of players in an S game yet.  So I wouldn't be shocked if Tiruin's actually a non-hostile 3rd party.

But that doesn't matter, because Town doesn't need that sort of role dead.  And if she is telling the truth - great.  Especially if we do face more than one currently living threat to Town -  her correct choice of redirection (and the fact that we have a Knight to safely 'eat' a kill without harm to Town) means that if we -do- have 2 baddies to kill.... we actually have a chance to win.

But I do kinda wish we had a night to 'waste', so Tiruin could redirect me and I could learn and report what happens to a Fortune Teller when it gets targeted by an Illusionist.  But it'll take the future to figure that one out, if it ever happens.

[Persus13]

Well, S2 didn't have a third-party until a guy got rezzed as a demon, so games have started with no third-parties before.

[Imp]

Well, S2 didn't have a third-party until a guy got rezzed as a demon, so games have started with no third-parties before.

I disagree.

Pandarsenic (other)
    You are a Ghoul. A strange, twisted being that exists on the border between life and death. Your mind has been warped by the constant pull of these forces, and you only find release in the death of others.

  Each night you may either choose to Kill another player or Consume a dead player. If you Consume a dead player your next Night Kill will be powered by dark magic, and you will be unstoppable.

 You win when all other players are dead.

He's easy to miss - he died N1 to the Cult.

[Persus13]

Well, S2 didn't have a third-party until a guy got rezzed as a demon, so games have started with no third-parties before.

I disagree.

Pandarsenic (other)
    You are a Ghoul. A strange, twisted being that exists on the border between life and death. Your mind has been warped by the constant pull of these forces, and you only find release in the death of others.

  Each night you may either choose to Kill another player or Consume a dead player. If you Consume a dead player your next Night Kill will be powered by dark magic, and you will be unstoppable.

 You win when all other players are dead.

He's easy to miss - he died N1 to the Cult.

S4 however, did start with no third parties.

[Imp]

Well, S2 didn't have a third-party until a guy got rezzed as a demon, so games have started with no third-parties before.

I disagree.

Pandarsenic (other)
    You are a Ghoul. A strange, twisted being that exists on the border between life and death. Your mind has been warped by the constant pull of these forces, and you only find release in the death of others.

  Each night you may either choose to Kill another player or Consume a dead player. If you Consume a dead player your next Night Kill will be powered by dark magic, and you will be unstoppable.

 You win when all other players are dead.

He's easy to miss - he died N1 to the Cult.

S4 however, did start with no third parties.

....

...  Ok Perses.  Now you've really got me wondering.  Because S4 started with -2- third parties

Granted one of them was Powerful and Pro-Town - but still a third party (note the Wincon, note the use of (other) instead of (town):

lordnincompoop (other)
    You are a Guardian Angel, sent to earth to protect Pandarsenic. Your one and only goal is to ensure that he lives to see the end of this nightmare. The heavens have plans for him in the future.
    Each night you may choose to use a protection charm on your ward. You may choose from the following: Protection from Night Kills, Protection from Conversion, Protection from Investigation, Protection from Judgement (the next day your ward will require 1 more vote to lynch than usual)

But I really gotta wonder what's got you interpreting Devils as Town.  Powerful, weird Wincon, and again, (other):

Leafsnail (other)
    You are a Devil, here to seduce the folk of this town into surrendering their souls for power. Each night you may select a player to Offer Power to. You may offer them one of the following powers:
    o One-shot Night Kill (or an unblockable night kill if they have a normal one)
        o One-shot Protection
        o One-shot Role-block
        o One-shot Investigation of a player's Role and Faction
        o One-shot Redirection

How you wish to phrase the offer is entirely up to you (all, some, or only one of the options). You can grant any of those powers, although only one per person. If the player accepts, then you gain their soul and they gain the power.

 The offer is made through me, in order to hide your identity.

 Once you have 3 souls you win, taking all of those who souls you took with you back to the hells.

Anything you'd like to talk about regarding your opinion of the existence (or lack there of) of third parties, Perses?

[Persus13]

Ok wow, that was a typo. I meant S5 not S4. S4 clearly had third-parties, I just hit the wrong button by mistake.

[Imp]

Ok wow, that was a typo. I meant S5 not S4. S4 clearly had third-parties, I just hit the wrong button by mistake.

And..... S5 had a survivor-type other:

Dariush (other)
    You have lived in this town a long, long time. As a b]Wererat[/b], your focus has always been on maintaining your anonymity and Surviving. Werecreatures have a bit of a bad rap, even those that don’t have it out for the town. With the recent murders, you’re going to have to work extra hard to keep people from finding out what you are and lynching you.

Um.... Spill the beans, Perses?  Why are we dancing?  Or why are you capering and leaping?

[Persus13]

Okay, wow, I fail at quick reading. I could have sworn one of the Supernaturals started without a third-party role. And I missed Dariush because his role wasn't bolded. But I'm not a third party.

I'd like to hear more from Tiruin and Toaster.

Out of curiousity, is Exorcist the new role Meph mentioned?