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[Dutchling]

I think it's Belarusian.

[Sheb]

Regarding GDP: looking at GDP PPP the difference ain't that bad.

As far as oil go, Belarus energy export only account for 3.5% of the total (Saw it on a wiki link yesterday). It actually has some oil, so its dependency on Russia is for market more than gas. Still as I pointed out, Russia could instantly sink Belarus if it started imposing the same kind of trade sanctions it has imposed on Moldova and Ukraine.

So yeah, leaving mother russia will hurt, but the longer Belarus wait, and the longer it stay dependent on a protected Russian market for exports, the bigger the technology and productivity gap with the rest of the world and the more painful it'll be to face the world market again.


P.S. Regarding's Russia's strategy, first of all it is not in its economic interest, it's a pure geopolitical thing. It's bad because 1) Bullying other country is bad manners (Contrast with the EU approach of lecturing and offering carrots, which is at most annoying) and 2) It's not working. Russia's strategy caused it to loose most of its European allies. Even the Serbs, angry at Europe for Kosovo are now applying for membership. Worse, it is damaging economically. Look at Moldova: before 2006 Russia accounted for 60% of wine export. Now, after and embargo in 2006-2007, Russia is only importing about 30% of the wine, meaning further embargos are less effective, while Russia is cutting itself from European trade.

[Ukrainian Ranger]

Another,
Regarding industry of Belarus. Unlike Guardian I don't think that Belarusian people are inferior and I am sure that they can compete with the the Western countries. Many products can and will compete, especially after investments from other nations (idea that some Western company will buy some Belarusan industry only to close the competitor is beyond absurd. ) Some will die, that's true. But they deserve to die, life support doesn't work in economics.

On the subject of Ukraine - of course EU integration is the future. In the next few years though the average standard of life could have taken a heavy hit if Ukraine joined now on the proposed conditions. In part - because some socially significant large businesses (like Wales coal industry for different reasons) would immediately collapse due to European concurrency and in large parts - because of severing some economic ties with Russia.

Average standard of life is low enough here. It's hard to hit it more. What is more important, standard of life it's not money. Sandard of life is not only money, it's rights. It's justice system. It's ability to buy something at fair price (Somehow I dislike paying several times more for a car than Europeans, because some bastards want to keep selling crap that Ukrainian Automobile Industry produces and hypocritically scream about workplaces  )

Now - would you really blame Russia for acting selfishly and doing what is best (short term) for its own economy? 

Yes, I will. Because it's not about economy and everyone knows that. Because some people have self respect and dislike when neighboring countries order you around with barely legal trade wars, closing borders, when their border guards intentionally killing  fishers of their nation and so on, so on
BTW, I am grateful for Putin's recent actions, number of pro-Russians is declining steadily. Great thing in  fact.

Ideally I would like to see talks between EU, Ukraine, Russia and maybe Kazakhstan and Belarus to find a compromise way to gradually join EU (first Ukraine, then - Russia, whether Belarus or Kazakhstan would even want to fully join is an open question)

Russia in EU makes me smile) Even for a dream European city of Vladivostok sounds sooo great... Truth is that no one even speaks about joining EU, association is an absolutely different thing. Ukraine in EU is impossible for the next twenty years at the very least, but we did had a chance for association this year, with all great long term economical and political benefits it would give. Instead Russia won and we'll keep lagging behind the civilization few more years. Still with people on the Streets I am optimistic. No, current protests will fail to reach it's goals, but I see potential for changes, I see enough people that have determination to change the country, who have right goals

[Sheb]

I wouldn't be so pessimistic: 20 years before joining the EU, the Baltic states were still Soviet Republics of the USSR and the Berlin Wall was standing proud. Things can change faster than that.

[10ebbor10]

Another,
Regarding industry of Belarus. Unlike Guardian I don't think that Belarusian people are inferior and I am sure that they can compete with the the Western countries. Many products can and will compete, especially after investments from other nations (idea that some Western company will buy some Belarusan industry only to close the competitor is beyond absurd. ) Some will die, that's true. But they deserve to die, life support doesn't work in economics.

Well, sometimes it does, but not when the problem's a structural as it in some places.

On the subject of Ukraine - of course EU integration is the future. In the next few years though the average standard of life could have taken a heavy hit if Ukraine joined now on the proposed conditions. In part - because some socially significant large businesses (like Wales coal industry for different reasons) would immediately collapse due to European concurrency and in large parts - because of severing some economic ties with Russia.

Average standard of life is low enough here. It's hard to hit it more. What is more important, standard of life it's not money. Standard of life is not only money, it's rights. It's justice system. It's ability to buy something at fair price (Somehow I dislike paying several times more for a car than Europeans, because some bastards want to keep selling crap that Ukrainian Automobile Industry produces and hypocritically scream about workplaces  )

As a side note, most of the requirements of the EU association program have been fulfilled. The only ones that weren't, were those that would have been executed with the aid of European funds, and some others.

Ideally I would like to see talks between EU, Ukraine, Russia and maybe Kazakhstan and Belarus to find a compromise way to gradually join EU (first Ukraine, then - Russia, whether Belarus or Kazakhstan would even want to fully join is an open question)

Russia in EU makes me smile) Even for a dream European city of Vladivostok sounds sooo great... Truth is that no one even speaks about joining EU, association is an absolutely different thing. Ukraine in EU is impossible for the next twenty years at the very least, but we did had a chance for association this year, with all great long term economical and political benefits it would give. Instead Russia won and we'll keep lagging behind the civilization few more years. Still with people on the Streets I am optimistic. No, current protests will fail to reach it's goals, but I see potential for changes, I see enough people that have determination to change the country, who have right goals.

[/quote]
While it's unlikely that Russia will join the EU in a realistic timeframe, Ukraine might join somewhere in the future. However, at this point, they aren't even considered as a candidate. Truly, some Mesoamerican states are closer to joining the union. (No, not really, but still)

[Helgoland]

Now that we're talking about 'periphery' states joining the EU: What do you think of taking in, let's say, Tunisia, once the government has stabilized? It may not be part of Europe geographically, but to me it makes sense expanding our influence that way - especially if we offer the same long-term option for other states as well.

[10ebbor10]

We rejected membership applications of Morocco (and Israel*) and other geographically outside Europe nations in the past, though technically it isn't entirely impossible. After all, Cyprus is technically part of Asia, and Turkey only has a small amount of territory inside the Union.

Besides, IIRC, the Commission (or was it the parliament?) has said that the European Union is not a geographical Union, but a Union of values. (Democracy, free trade, free speech, ...) Hence why the Vatican and other European mini-nations can never be part of it.

But yeah, Cooperation with the Meditterean Sea countries is also in the works, in a similar system as the talks with Ukraine.

*Which otherwise, and barring a few domestic conflicts, would have been part of the European Union.

[MetalSlimeHunt]

Although, from what I've heard the Moroccans are very insistent that they are, in fact, geographically located in Extreme Southern Europe.

[Sheb]

That's just silly. Still, I wouldn't mind, but geographically it probably makes more sense for Tunisia to join a North African club. Tunisia has more links with Algeria and Libya than with France and Italy.

But if Turkey get in, why not creep further into the Middle-East? Why not Lebanon and Syria, if they ever are stable enough?

[MetalSlimeHunt]

Because nobody wants to be a citizen of the Afroeurasian Union.

[Digital Hellhound]

The European World State, on the other hand...

[scriver]

I'm pretty sure both Israel and Morocco would fail on the "not allowed to oppress a minority" clause that nay-to-Turkey-sayers like bringing up anyway.

[Helgoland]

Tunisia has more links with Algeria and Libya than with France and Italy.

These states usually have surprisingly close ties with France - shared history, Stockholm syndrome, foreign money, call it what you will. Of course these states are similar, but they're not truly foreign to Europe.

Afroeurasian Union

Why not? Put an afro on each star, and I'm game

[Ukrainian Ranger]

Damn. Ukrainian protests are mostly dead, now. What remained is a farce. That idiots really believe that something  can be changed with songs and dances.

[Chaoswizkid]

Well, if Turkey got in with only a little bit of land in Europe, the US should totally join the EU. We own land in Europe, too, damnit. Then we'll own NATO, the UN and the EU. It'll be wonderful.