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[Guardian G.I.]

Yanukovich was elected thanks to popular support of the electorate from the Russian-speaking regions of Ukraine, which didn't expect him to start pursuing pro-EU policies. As a result of the EU deal being scrapped, various liberal and nationalist pro-EU parties have turned against him. Russia is not happy with him for not striving to join the Customs Union, EU is not happy with him for not releasing his liberal political rival Timoshenko from prison.
He somehow managed to piss off everyone with his actions.

[Sheb]

Typical case of trying not to upset anyone and in the process upsetting everyone. I still expect Ukraine to come back to the EU side in a few years. Even with the crisis, Europe just make for a much brighter goal than Russia.

[Owlbread]

Ukraine joining the EU and/or NATO could ruin Putin's "Union State" plans too. If Belarus's government changes maybe they too could move down that path, but somehow I don't see Lukashenko going anywhere any time soon.

[MetalSlimeHunt]

I'd normally agree, but after what happened to Ben Ali I've started to wonder if Lukashenko isn't going to be vulnerable to a Black Swan event. Ali's position was not that different from Lukashenko's before he suddenly found two million people outside his house calling for his arrest.

[Owlbread]

I think we'll need Guardian G.I. to clear that up for us. Guardian, do you imagine such a thing could ever happen in Belarus? Zhivye Belarus? Abo zhivye novy, nevyaliki, SSR...

Out of interest, does the Opposition in Belarus favour a return of the Belarusian Democratic Republic and its government in exile?

[Ukrainian Ranger]

100 000+ on the streets in Kiev. Déjà vu . It's like 2004 but better... hope it will not die out tomorrow

[Owlbread]

My blessings go to them. Good luck, Ranger. I wish you every success.

[Guardian G.I.]

I think we'll need Guardian G.I. to clear that up for us. Guardian, do you imagine such a thing could ever happen in Belarus? Zhivye Belarus? Abo zhivye novy, nevyaliki, SSR...

Out of interest, does the Opposition in Belarus favour a return of the Belarusian Democratic Republic and its government in exile?

Our opposition constantly tries to do that at every presidential elections. After the preliminary results are announced (guess the winning candidate), around 8-10 thousand opposition supporters gather in the centre of Minsk, our capital city. The opposition agitators start telling people to go to this political demonstration long before the election day. After they assemble, they start demanding President Lukashenko's resignation and try to do something drastic (like setting up a Maidan-style camp in 2006 or trying to storm the parliament building in 2010). Then the riot police arrive and clear the streets while foreign journalists film them. The European Commission, the US Department of State and all progressive mankind obviously condemn this grave and horrible violation of human rights the next day and renew the sanctions against President Lukashenko. At the next elections, it all repeats again.

The demonstrations generally only happen in Minsk, the city with the highest percentage of people supporting the opposition. Their popular support in the smaller towns is low. You can hardly find an opposition supporter in the countryside.

The biggest opposition rally against Lukashenko's presidency occurred in 1998, when he tried to dissolve the liberal pro-Western parliament, the Supreme Soviet of Belarus by the means of constitutional reform (he eventually succeeded). IIRC, around 30-50 thousand people took part in it. It also happened exclusively in Minsk. The popular support for the opposition has dwindled since then.

The opposition doesn't support the BNR's government in exile.

[Owlbread]

Do you think they will ever succeed?

[Guardian G.I.]

Do you think they will ever succeed?

It's not likely. The opposition doesn't have enough supporters for that. Plus, the leaders of the opposition are generally incompetent people without any clear political program other than "Let's get rid of Lukashenko and join the EU, we'll figure out the rest of the issues later". The EU keeps financing them through grants even though they are a waste of European taxpayers' money.

[MetalSlimeHunt]

As I said, I think Lukashenko is going to be vulnerable to a Black Swan event, which is by nature unpredictable. Could be anything, but if he goes too far and builds up enough resentment towards his person, I could see it. The ideal would just be a similar situation to Ben Ali's. Huge turnouts against him, he realizes he might actually be in legit danger, and flees without bloodshed to fufil his dream as Putin's eternal love.

[Guardian G.I.]

As I said, I think Lukashenko is going to be vulnerable to a Black Swan event, which is by nature unpredictable. Could be anything, but if he goes too far and builds up enough resentment towards his person, I could see it. The ideal would just be a similar situation to Ben Ali's. Huge turnouts against him, he realizes he might actually be in legit danger, and flees without bloodshed to fufil his dream as Putin's eternal love.

The protests in Tunisia and Egypt were caused by deep underlying societal problems which are not present in Belarus (we don't have as much income inequality, for example).
The protests in Tunisia and Egypt were not spontaneous, but carefully organized events.
There are state security forces (lots of people from the former Soviet KGB work there) monitoring the opposition's activities. Should the opposition try to organize something that our leadership may find threatening, state security will immediately intervene. They've done that several times over the past years. They don't trouble the opposition if they don't try to do something radical, though.

[Helgoland]

What about natural causes? Is there an obvious sucessor to Lukashenko, or could Belarus experience a Franco-type transition to democracy?

[Guardian G.I.]

What about natural causes? Is there an obvious sucessor to Lukashenko, or could Belarus experience a Franco-type transition to democracy

It's an interesting question. Lukashenko is 59 years old at the moment and assuming he'll stay in power firmly and he won't have health problems, he'll be president for the next 15-20 years.
He has a son, Nikolai, who is 9 years old at the moment and who is often present at President's public appearances. It's jokingly assumed around here that he'll become the next president of Belarus. Our president denied it once at a press conference, stating something along the lines of "Every day he sees first-hand how hard the work of President is and he doesn't want to work like me".
Then again, maybe 20 years into the future Belarus will be a member state of the Eurasian Union and the question of changing political ideologies will be ruled out.

[Ukrainian Ranger]

The protests in Tunisia and Egypt were not spontaneous, but carefully organized events.

Why all people with Soviet mentality think like that about all Arab Spring events?


I think it all depends on external factors. Any serious internal crisis in Russia and you can forget about Lukashenko because when Belorussian economy will rapidly collapse and no security forces will stop the wave.
How likely crisis in Russia is another question