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Author Topic: Beginner's Mafia 13 - Mafia wins!  (Read 35964 times)

USEC_OFFICER

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Re: Beginner's Mafia 13 - D3! Replacement requester renightkilled!
« Reply #210 on: August 14, 2010, 03:06:16 pm »

My vote goes to USEC, since he has been much scummier than Toaster.

Evidence please.

I'll need a while to think this through. The way I see it, either Rube is the godfather, or Toaster is scum, or they are both scum acting in a convincing ruse, the way Toaster has been attacking Rube.
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Lonewolf I

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Re: Beginner's Mafia 13 - D3! I like pie!
« Reply #211 on: August 14, 2010, 03:55:40 pm »

Votecount:
USEC_OFFICER - {1} Ottofar
Ottofar - {0}
Vector - {2} Toaster, USEC_OFFICER
Toaster - {0}
Rube - {0}

Not Voting:

Vector, Rube

Day ends on Tuesday at 8:00pm CST
« Last Edit: August 15, 2010, 07:48:07 am by Lonewolf I »
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USEC_OFFICER

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Re: Beginner's Mafia 13 - D3! Replacement requester renightkilled!
« Reply #212 on: August 14, 2010, 04:42:28 pm »

Unvote Damn it. My logic is taking me in circles. Is it legal for scum to pretend that they are the cop? Would help a lot.
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USEC_OFFICER

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Re: Beginner's Mafia 13 - D3! Replacement requester renightkilled!
« Reply #213 on: August 14, 2010, 04:43:46 pm »

I probably should have asked the town IC about that.
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Lonewolf I

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Re: Beginner's Mafia 13 - D3! Replacement requester renightkilled!
« Reply #214 on: August 14, 2010, 04:46:07 pm »

It's called falseclaiming, and it is perfectly legal.
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ToonyMan

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Re: Beginner's Mafia 13 - D3! Replacement requester renightkilled!
« Reply #215 on: August 14, 2010, 04:46:41 pm »

Scum could pretend to be anything they want, it's town job to find out if the person is lying or not.
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USEC_OFFICER

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Re: Beginner's Mafia 13 - D3! Replacement requester renightkilled!
« Reply #216 on: August 14, 2010, 04:47:15 pm »

Good. Give me a minute to ready an arguement.
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USEC_OFFICER

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Re: Beginner's Mafia 13 - D3! Replacement requester renightkilled!
« Reply #217 on: August 14, 2010, 04:58:28 pm »

Or tomorrow.
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Toaster

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Re: Beginner's Mafia 13 - D3! Replacement requester renightkilled!
« Reply #218 on: August 14, 2010, 10:24:33 pm »

Lonewolf: My vote's currently on Vector.

Ottofar:  That makes things interesting.  Quick questions:  Which order did you scan them?  Why did you scan them?  There's a 50% chance of a godfather this game- do you think one of them is one?  If so, which one?
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HMR stands for Hazardous Materials Requisition, not Horrible Massive Ruination, though I can understand how one could get confused.
God help us if we have to agree on pizza toppings at some point. There will be no survivors.

Rube

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Re: Beginner's Mafia 13 - D3! Replacement requester renightkilled!
« Reply #219 on: August 15, 2010, 03:15:33 am »

Also, why do you want to know why I think people are town?

Why wouldn't I? It's always good to know the reasoning of other players - if they're town, they might reveal something I had missed. If they're scum, they may have shoddy reasoning that gives them away.

I'm not done questioning the rest of you.  I'd especially like to hear Rube's opinion of Vector.

Vector: The townies who have been night killed so far weren't the ones who were the biggest threat to the scum. They were the replacements, who were dangerous to town in an unfair fashion. These are the actions of a scum who is trying to engineer a fair beginner's game.

Here you claim you want to make this a good beginner's game. That would be motivation for the night kills we have seen. I've also never seen you do any convincing scumhunting. Your scumhunting seems to consist more of telling people to play better than accusing them of anything, as though you knew who was town already and wanted to give them tips on how to play. Just a vibe I was getting reading back through your posts.

Ottofor: You've garnered a lot of suspicion throughout D2. Claiming cop would be a good way to clear that suspicion.

Your vote order (Rube and Vector) implies you checked me after D1 and Vector after D2. You suspected USEC throughout D1, keeping your vote on him only to change to Bandages at the last moment. If you suspected USEC, why didn't you check him. And what did Vector do on D2 that made you check her?
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Lonewolf I

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Re: Beginner's Mafia 13 - D3! I like pie!
« Reply #220 on: August 15, 2010, 07:50:34 am »

Fixed:

Votecount:
USEC_OFFICER - {1} Ottofar
Ottofar - {0}
Vector - {1} Toaster
Toaster - {0}
Rube - {0}

Not Voting:

Vector, Rube, USEC_OFFICER

Day ends on Tuesday at 8:00pm CST
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Vector

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Re: Beginner's Mafia 13 - D3! Replacement requester renightkilled!
« Reply #221 on: August 15, 2010, 12:27:52 pm »

Here you claim you want to make this a good beginner's game. That would be motivation for the night kills we have seen. I've also never seen you do any convincing scumhunting. Your scumhunting seems to consist more of telling people to play better than accusing them of anything, as though you knew who was town already and wanted to give them tips on how to play. Just a vibe I was getting reading back through your posts.

Because leading the attack on Bandages' flimsy argumentation isn't scumhunting, and being gone farming for most of the active portion of D2 (... if you can really call it active) isn't an acceptable excuse?

Come back when you get something solid.


Now, for USEC_OFFICER.

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Toaster

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Re: Beginner's Mafia 13 - D3! Replacement requester renightkilled!
« Reply #222 on: August 15, 2010, 10:21:53 pm »

Damn it.

I don't trust any of you.

Vector's logic appears sound, but I would expect a convincing town game out of her.  I think she's quite capable of leading a town to its ruin.  My gut has been yelling at me about Rube the whole game.  I can't put my finger on anything specific, but I don't trust him.  Ottofar I don't think likely to fakeclaim scum on his own, but I can easily see someone putting him up to it.  His claim was conveniently last, minimizing a counterclaim chance.  USEC's actions haven't been very town friendly, and if Ottofar's telling the truth, he is 100% scum.

The way I see it, there are two possibilities, based on the truth of Ottofar's claim.  I'd suspect Vector over Rube for putting Otto up to a fakeclaim, so if it is fake, I'd put our scums as Otto and Vector.  If Otto is telling the truth, that makes him town and USEC scum, and either Vector or Rube a godfather.  I'm not sure who it'd be at this point, but I'd lean Rube over Vector for a partner of USEC.  A thread reread showed their interactions regarding USEC's joke on D1 as potential distancing.  Vector's been too aggressive on USEC (ignoring the last post of hers) this game for it to be distancing, IMO.

I really want Ottofar to answer my questions- he's the key to this puzzle now.
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HMR stands for Hazardous Materials Requisition, not Horrible Massive Ruination, though I can understand how one could get confused.
God help us if we have to agree on pizza toppings at some point. There will be no survivors.

Rube

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Re: Beginner's Mafia 13 - D3! Replacement requester renightkilled!
« Reply #223 on: August 16, 2010, 04:52:46 am »

Okay okay okay. I've done some thinking, and this isn't as complicated as it looks. We have 3 possible outcomes.



Ottofor is town, either me or Vector is godfather; I did some quick, probably bad, math to work out how likely this is. I'm working under the assumption that there can only be one godfather and he has a 50% chance of appearing at all (correct me if I'm wrong, please!).

So there's 50% chance the godfather shows up. And a further 50% chance that Ottofor would pick the scum that is Godfather (assuming there can only be one godfather). So that's a 25% chance that one of Ottofar's checks is a godfather. Then we take into consideration that he might not have cop-checked any scum at all - there were 8 people to choose from the first night, and 5 the second night. That 25% shrinks a lot further (although the math is kinda pointless here, because Ottofor wasn't cop-checking at random).

It's not beyond the realm of possibility that Ottofor's checks include a godfather, but it'd be something of a statistical outlier.



Ottofor is scum, pretending to be cop; This begs the question, why? Roleclaiming cop will attract a lot of attention. Ottofor got 2 votes at the end of D2, and may have thought roleclaiming cop would divert that attention. Then we look at who he claims he checked - me and Vector. Why pick two people who are still alive in the game if he was lying? It'd be easier and safer to pick someone who was lynched or night killed, who we all know are townies.

Of course he could've been planning on us thinking that, cue WIFOM.

I'd like to hear his answers to all our questions. Especially which order he cop-checked me and Vector.



Ottofor is town, Toaster and USEC_OFFICER are scum; USEC has been suspected since his stand-up act flopped near the start of the game. He then lurked for much of the rest of the game, appearing again now with some well-grounded posts. If he's scum, I'd suspect he was told to be quiet after his initial few posts, then re-emerge now to spread some confusion at this crucial point.

Toaster, from what I gather, is a somewhat experienced player. I'd expect him to do well as scum. There are a few specific peculiarities I've noticed.

1. We were jumping on Vector for being an experienced, helpful player who would night kill Thendash and magwebster/Scatterbrains to keep the game fair. This is also true of Toaster.

2. There's this post again. If you're wondering why I keep bringing this up, it's because it's very suspicious. Either Vector or Bandages were going to be lynched when he posted that. Why call those two people town right before one of them gets lynched? On no more evidence than a baseless hunch?

If one of them flipped scum it would make it look like Toaster was trying to protect his scumbuddy (so if you're town, why post that?). Unless he knew both of them were town - if either of them gets lynched, it gives him a strong card to play. "I said Bandages/Vector was town, and I was right! If I were scum I'd be happy to see them get lynched." His post wasn't going to change the outcome of the D1 lynch from either Bandages or Vector, it serves no purpose for a townie to say what he said (least of all an experienced player like Toaster), but it would help a clever scum.

3. His last post. He starts with "I don't trust any of you" then goes on to spread suspicion about everyone. Vector, then me, then Ottofor, then USEC last. That's not helpful to town at all, and I'd expect better from an experienced townie.

I agree with him on one thing though. I want to see Ottofor's answers to our questions, because this comes down to whether we think Ottofor is lying or not.
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Ottofar

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Re: Beginner's Mafia 13 - D3! Replacement requester renightkilled!
« Reply #224 on: August 16, 2010, 07:17:37 am »

I lost electricity due to a thunderstorm yesterday, sorry for my abscene.

I inspected Vector first, as she is as experienced as she is, and could indeed pose a serious threat to town, if she was scum.

Then Rube, for scumminess.

Afterwards I noticed USEC was even more scummy, and posted once d2.

@USEC, this, and much more,  is evidence that you are scummier than Toaster.
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