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Author Topic: Monks and Masons Mafia - END! Wolves win!  (Read 28180 times)

Azure Sepulchre

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Cript wasn't scum? Bugger... -_-

Hmm... I'm gonna have to re-evaluate the game a bit, and I'm really interested in reading what Ottofar has to say, so I'll postpone tossing in my own two cents until after Otto's done. I daresay I'll be impressed if it turns out his opinion is worth the wait.
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Ottofar

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I promise I'll totally redo my post tomorrow. Because the forum ate my post. I'm angry.

Diablous

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Diablous, I suspected your predecessor of being scum.  He goes inactive and werewolves miss out on a kill.  Explain.

Hmm. An idea. The wolves decided to not attack the mafia they attacked on Night 1. A few guesses on why: To lull the mafia into a false sense of security. To make it appear that your theory has been confirmed, to send the town and mafia on a false lead. Or just to cause confusion. The one I am most confident in is that they are trying to weaken the town. My guess is that they do not want the town to be much of a factor when they begin their assault on the mafia. We currently only have 3 townies left. If we mislynch, we can have 2, 1, or no townies tomorrow, depending on who the scum teams attack. Either way, not much chance for recovery for the town. Basically, they want it so the town will no longer be any threat to them for when they eliminate the mafia. Not quite sure though. I wish I knew what the wolves are doing.

Hmm... if true, I believe their motivations would be more geared to snuffing out the other mafia than weakening the town, allowing them to immediately off the known one afterward.  An interesting theory, but there are only one or two people still living who might come up with something like that.  Do you see anyone who might be acting on such a plan?

Anyway, my theory's simpler.  You haven't disproved it, only offered an alternative.  Could be deflection, could be you seriously think this qualifies as a defense.  Try harder.

I took a look at Pimpson's profile. He's listed as being last active on the 17th, while N1 ended on the 14th. I doubt that our mod would not at least PM or contact the wolves' in the scumchat if they were failing to send in their kill PM. Since Pimpson was last active during the 17th, I think that he would be active during N1, and would see whatever warning Spitfire would give the wolves about missing their kill PM, and deal with the problem. Since he was active during N1, and I really doubt that the mod would not warn the wolves if they are about to miss their chance to kill, so Pimpson's lack of experience and lurking would not be the cause of the wolves missing their kill. I know that at least Pimpson isn't scum, and your theory doesn't really mean he is. As for others, I am not sure. You mentioned that Eduren and Blargity predecessors also fit with your theory. I checked their predecessors profiles, and they have both been active today.
 
As for who would try a plan such as what I suggested, I would say someone with experience at mafia, so maybe Eduren or Leafsnail. They seem like the people with the experience to try that.
 
 
 
@Ottofar. Can't say I'm impressed by your analysis. Though your thinking that the masons should claim intrigues me. Mafia looking for targets? We shall see. I await your redone post. A tip. Write your post out in Notepad before hand. Copy and Paste from that.
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Quote from: Solifuge
A catgirl, whom oft it would please
To dine on a pizza, with cheese,
Thought it was quite fine
To be partly feline,
Excepting the hairballs and fleas.

Lonewolf I

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I took a look at Pimpson's profile. He's listed as being last active on the 17th, while N1 ended on the 14th. I doubt that our mod would not at least PM or contact the wolves' in the scumchat if they were failing to send in their kill PM. Since Pimpson was last active during the 17th, I think that he would be active during N1, and would see whatever warning Spitfire would give the wolves about missing their kill PM, and deal with the problem. Since he was active during N1, and I really doubt that the mod would not warn the wolves if they are about to miss their chance to kill, so Pimpson's lack of experience and lurking would not be the cause of the wolves missing their kill. I know that at least Pimpson isn't scum, and your theory doesn't really mean he is. As for others, I am not sure. You mentioned that Eduren and Blargity predecessors also fit with your theory. I checked their predecessors profiles, and they have both been active today.
 
As for who would try a plan such as what I suggested, I would say someone with experience at mafia, so maybe Eduren or Leafsnail. They seem like the people with the experience to try that.

That's... actually pretty good.  I was going by last posts in the game.  Hadn't thought of that angle.  I'll take it one step further:

This is Pimpson's last post, anywhere, on Bay12:
oohhh im new so im definitely interested
The timestamp is during n1, so, Diabolous, I guess you're cleared for now. Unvote

GeneralGuy posted within two hours of n1 ending, and thrice since then.  My accusation of him was a mistake, as I overlooked those posts.
Leafsnail, I don't understand what you mean by werewolves hit mafia. Why you said it that way has gotten me somewhat suspicious, mentioning werewolf action as apposed to scum in general, and not the first time either. But do you mean there is some sort of delay when scum hits other scum?

Martian's last post, anywhere on Bay12, is:
Sorry for lurking, things were a bit choatic. Yeah, Nuke has a point. My vote is a bit out of date. Unvote.

I must say, Criptfiend is looking the more scummy to me of the cryptfiend/leafsnail exchange. The points has been pretty well covered, the not voting for obvscum with a time limit and so on.
Even if he's signed on to the forums since then, there is no proof that he was active in any way.  However, without an inactive accomplice, the whole theory falls apart.

So, time for a new line of investigation.  Leafsnail, D1 you voted Martian and then switched to criptfeind within a few posts.  Shortly afterward Martian voted criptfeind as well, and both of you stuck with him to the end of the day.  I think you two are a pair, but are you mason, mafia or werewolf?

I think you didn't have any serious scum suspicions D1, and would have offed Webadict, Pandarsenic, Jokerman, or Glyphgryph in order to get rid of your only serious competition.  Since Web and Pandar had already asked to sub out and GlyphGryph was looking iffy for participation, Jokerman is the logical choice for your kill.  That makes you mafia. N2, though, you kill Toaster.  I'd have expected Eduren or GlyphGryph.  Why Toaster?  I think I have an answer.  While doing a vote analysis, I found something interesting.  D1, Toaster RVed Pimpson, the switched to Jokerman.  Pimpson voted Toaster, then switched to me.  Then on D2 Toaster voted criptfeind never switched, while Diablous voted cript at the last minute.  Since this was before Toaster and GlyphGryph flipped monk, I think you saw a pairing here.  A scum pairing, since Diablous pretty much hammered cript unnecessarily.

Leafsnail and Martian - You are mafia.
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Leafsnail

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Yeah, Lonewolf, mafia members always have to vote together :/.  In any case, how does me voting someone and then having someone else vote them make us a pair?  Whatever.

Incidentally, the majority of the players in the game are now scum.  Lynching scum today would actually probably make us lose.  In fact, we can't really do much except hope the mafia and wolves kill each other.  I suppose I can't really stop the two scumteams from lynching me if that's what they want, though.

No lynch.
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Diablous

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Leaf, care to elaborate on how lynching scum would just make us lose?
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Quote from: Solifuge
A catgirl, whom oft it would please
To dine on a pizza, with cheese,
Thought it was quite fine
To be partly feline,
Excepting the hairballs and fleas.

Leafsnail

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There are currently 3 town aligned players, 2 mafia and 2 werewolves alive.

Let's say we lynch a werewolf today (somehow).

3 town, 2 mafia, 1 werewolf go into night.  If either of the kills hit town, instant loss.

Actually, no lynching isn't much better.  Town's basically screwed regardless.
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Diablous

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Well, with a no lynch there will be greater odds of the scum teams attacking each other than if we lynch scum. Well, even if a townie is killed tonight, the only way it is guarenteed that the town will lose is if there is no town. Even if there is only one townie left, a scenario of like 1 wolf, 1 mafia, and one town, and the wolf and mafia kill each other in the night, leading to a town win. But the odds of that happening are virtually zero. Oh we are fucked.
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Quote from: Solifuge
A catgirl, whom oft it would please
To dine on a pizza, with cheese,
Thought it was quite fine
To be partly feline,
Excepting the hairballs and fleas.

Diablous

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Hmm. I did some thinking. It is still possible for the town to win. Depends on where the kills fall. Odds are against the town though.
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Quote from: Solifuge
A catgirl, whom oft it would please
To dine on a pizza, with cheese,
Thought it was quite fine
To be partly feline,
Excepting the hairballs and fleas.

Leafsnail

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Yep.  And if the town does win, it won't be through scumhunting.

So eat WIFOM, bastards.
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Lonewolf I

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Yeah, Lonewolf, mafia members always have to vote together :/.  In any case, how does me voting someone and then having someone else vote them make us a pair?  Whatever.
It's not so much that you voted together as it is the combination of that and your brief attack on martian between votes on criptfeind.  I think you were covering your buddy so that an analysis of who has not voted for whom wouldn't reveal your connection.

I think town's best bet is to lynch mafia and then hope that scum target each other.  Mafia will waste their kill on werewolve's killshield, wolves will kill off their rivals, and we'll be left with three town and two wolves.  Not the best situation, but definitely winnable.  Anyway, since mafia will probably gun for masons since their kill will be wasted otherwise, I think masons should lay low and hope mafia gets them mixed up with the werewolves.

In light of this, Ottofar's request for masons to claim is suspicious.  Maybe I'm wrong about Martian.  Maybe it's you or Otto we should be lynching today.
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Leafsnail

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Actually, at this point, scum must shoot scum or die.  Shooting a mason would be retarded.
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Lonewolf I

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With the killshield in place, you and your scumbuddy can only try to get werewolves lynched.  If you waste your kill trying to break the shield, then there will only be more town to deal with once werewolves are gone (assuming you succeed).
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Criptfeind

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Spoiled spectate plox?
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spitfire684

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Spoiled spectate plox?
Are you allowed to, even though you are techincally still in the game, but dead?
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