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[Strongpoint]

I believe that bringing the discomfort of war to Russian civilians is the most plausible way to stop the war. We need to make the Russian population WANT to end the war. If, for example, Moscow will stay without electricity for a week after a hypothetical Ukrainian drone strike, war will become far less popular. (also the best way to bring discomfort to Russia is not strikes or sabotage but severe Western economic sanctions)

Why the same can't work with Ukrainians? Because whatever discomfort Russia may bring, it is still less bad than a genocidal occupation.

[EuchreJack]

Eh. Fair enough. I'd still have picked something different and/or more directly military.

Strictly military targets are harder to damage due to security and less likely to be publicized, since the military can stifle information of all but most obvious and large acts of sabotage.  Destroy a fuel depot and the flames are difficult to dismiss. Destroy a barracks, and the military can disavow any knowledge.

[Lord Shonus]

Wow, some Russian citizens burned down a massive warehouse in St. Petersburg. Sounds like some of the population is indeed getting in a mood to do something.  Sounds like it was just consumer goods though... too bad it wasn't a military warehouse.

 As far as I know, it is merely a version of ho the fire started. Also, the fire happened in a warehouse of Russian "Amazon" that treats its workers far worse than the real Amazon (yes, it is possible) so it may be revenge not against the government but against the company

For those not aware (you probably are) there's video evidence of Wildberries performing strip searches on employees before and after each shift. That alone is enough to get somebody to burn the place down.

If it is anti-government partisans, I'm disappointed in the choice of target tbh. This does nothing to hurt the war effort, all it does is inconvenience people and destroy thousands of items for no good reason.

There's a very high chance that companies like this one are heavily involved in the evasion of sanctions. If they are, then taking out a nerve center of their operations is probably one of the single most damaging blows that can be struck. Bringing home the reality of the war to the citizens of Moscow and Saint Petersburg, who (unlike most of the country) have reportedly been spared most of the domestic consequences such as conscription, is also a heavy blow.

[Strongpoint]

Interview with the Commander of the Ukrainian Navy for anyone curious.

[Strongpoint]

This night, a Russian oil terminal on the Baltic see coast went boom.  The extent of damage is unknown but it is burning.

Love to wake up to the news of its kind. It is what we need for victory, crippling the Russian infrastructure with cheap drone strikes adding to the overall negative trend of their economy. I see it as the only realistic path left because there is no way we can break through Russian fortification and\or recapture urban centers. Making Russia to run out of manpower is also impossible. We only need to make many, many more such strikes.

[Strongpoint]

Ukraine's President Zelenskyy signs decree on historically Ukrainian-populated territories in Russia.

The decree calls for the development of a plan to preserve the Ukrainian identity of Ukrainians living in Russia, including on historically Ukrainian-populated lands.

The plan would include collecting and studying evidence of crimes committed against Ukrainians in Russia, countering Russian disinformation and propaganda, and developing cooperation between Ukrainians and other oppressed peoples in Russia.

The decree also calls for the Ukrainian government to work with the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine to prepare and disseminate materials about the history of Ukrainian statehood and the historical ties between Ukrainian-populated lands and Ukrainian national states.

The decree takes effect immediately.

Heh, I may watch Russian news this evening just to enjoy the fallout.

[anewaname]

Turn-about is fair play.... Hasn't Russia been threatening some of the Baltic states because they are abandoning Russian language integration/education or something like that? And, isn't discrimination against Russians in Ukraine one of the excuses Russia gave to invade?

[Strongpoint]

To be honest, the Ukrainian diaspora is largely non-existent in Russia - most of them are assimilated beyond recovery. I have rather close relatives there who I don't consider a tiny bit Ukrainian anymore.

But this step is still good for the possible future of Russian internal chaos. Something like the independent Kuban would be incredibly beneficial for us and we should be ready to support such movements. Creating legal base for it now is a good idea.

[anewaname]

The problem is that those in power within Russia are all "Russian", so Putin may be overthrown by his "Russian peers" but not by some portion of his "cultural people".

Because, those that publicly express "wrong think" are persecuted, and for Russia, "wrong think" includes any thoughts that another cultural/ethnic groups is an equal of "Russian". So a Ukrainian could live within a Russian region and claim their Ukrainian heritage, but that claim would automatically label them as inferior to Ukrainians who claim themselves to be Russian, and far inferior to "actual" Russians, which would effect their political representation, which would effect their work income, which would effect their children's future, etc. The power to control people always comes from coercion against their family and against the families of their community.

[EuchreJack]

On the bright side, it might just give the justification that some new Russian Ethnic Ukrainian-Russian Army General needs to convince his new regiment of conscripts Ethnic Ukrainian-Russians to desert resume fighting for their TRUE nation.

It has possibilities with regional governments. And even if few Russians can find their Inner Ukrainian, the fact that at least some Russian officials have to take it as a threat might prove useful.

...God, I hope youthful rebellious nature isn't just an "American thing".

[MaxTheFox]

...God, I hope youthful rebellious nature isn't just an "American thing".

Most of the younger generation dislikes the current government, from my experiences. A crapshoot with anyone older than, idk, 25 or 30 or so.

The issue is that these dissatisfied people are not at all organized and are mostly afraid to do anything. I know because I AM ONE OF THOSE PEOPLE.

Kinda lost my fighting spirit over the past year. Now I just... wait and faintly hope.

[Strongpoint]

On the bright side, it might just give the justification that some new Russian Ethnic Ukrainian-Russian Army General needs to convince his new regiment of conscripts Ethnic Ukrainian-Russians to desert resume fighting for their TRUE nation.

It has possibilities with regional governments. And even if few Russians can find their Inner Ukrainian, the fact that at least some Russian officials have to take it as a threat might prove useful.

...God, I hope youthful rebellious nature isn't just an "American thing".

Russia is a semi-feudal state. What we actually need is several important persons in a region jointly deciding that declaring themselves a new state serves their interests more than obeying Moscow and that Moscow does not have enough strength to make them obey.

They will immediately remember their Ukrainian, Tarar, Caucasian, so on  roots (even if they don't have any) or become of some novel ethnicity like Siberian or Kamchatkan

[Starver]

Maybe one day we'll know which, but Russia claims that an aircraft crashed/was shot down with soon-to-be-released Ukrainean POWs (and that another similar plane turned round, in response), whilst Ukraine may or may not have shot down a plane transporting missile supplies for the conflict.

I mean, my natural inclination is to disbelieve the Russian account (but lets see how long until fuller evidence/'evidence' of the tragedy's crash-site takes to emerge), even while admitting the possibility of Ukraine making an error. Or both could be true (POW transportation on a supply plane!).

Can't see this being disentangled, easily. If the Russians want bodies in the wreckage, they can arrange it. If the Russians taunted Ukraine with 'leaked information' about this being a resupply plane and then packed it with 'POW's and their least-considered aircrew, I also wouldn't be surprised, or consider this an overly paranoid thought process (on my part or theirs). Not the first time that non-combatant aircraft have been knocked out of these skies, either, by error or otherwise.

Either way, a scheduled prisoner-exchange is now delayed (to the benefit of nobody on the ground) and the fate of particular individuals is muddied (perhaps to the benefit of others). I'll let Ukraine do its own hand-wringing over this, based upon what they actually know they reasonably knew, but I'm sure the top-tier in Russia isn't too bothered (gives them a story to spin, real or otherwise, at least to the home crowd).


And further details have probably emerged even as I write this, so can't be sure even if this post is currently accurate, nor any of my wide-ranging assumptions.

[Strongpoint]

Sadly, the scenario of people in charge of shooting down Russian aircraft didn't know about any exchanges and just shot down a valuable target - a big juicy transport aircraft is far from impossible.

In any case, there is no proof of that hours after the aircraft fell so there is hope.

[anewaname]

This short video gives a good breakdown of why that plane probably had no prisoners and no s-300 missiles on it.