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Author Topic: Proc Gen Mafia 4 - Game Over - Scum Win  (Read 19429 times)

Maximum Spin

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Re: Proc Gen Mafia 4 - Day 1 Begins! - Dwarf Fortress? Elf Fortress more like!
« Reply #120 on: September 06, 2022, 08:07:56 am »

Max: what do you think of Toony this game - still leaning Town?
So far, I guess. But of course, Toony is one that I can never be sure about, leastways not after the last part of Fallacy's Marathon.
Quote
Also, I remember Web once saying you had a theory about Toony's play - does that have any bearing on this game so far?
Truthfully, I'm not sure which theory Web meant then. I have a couple notions about Toony's play, but nothing that directly bears on this situation unless he's specifically paired with Knightwing, which he probably is not. He hasn't gotten angry yet, and there's no webadict here for him to play-fight with, and those are all the theories I can remember ever mentioning right now.

I'm more or less on board with a Fallacy lynch, but I want to sleep and I'm not going to be responsible for opening the door to a quickhammer again so soon after the trauma of that Armed Forces game.
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hector13

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Re: Proc Gen Mafia 4 - Day 1 Begins! - Dwarf Fortress? Elf Fortress more like!
« Reply #121 on: September 06, 2022, 11:22:48 am »

Huh... careful with that ability, Knightwing. We may want to hold Tric captive a little. For glorious reeducation, if necessary.
What makes you think it's an ability? Unless I missed one of Knightwing's posts?
I thought he was the befriender, given he was claiming he could townconfirm himself, and there probably is a befriender because Tric is probably telling the truth.

The claim from Jim makes me reconsider that assumption.


Not sure how I feel about the Jim thing... I guess it makes me want to keep him alive, as it's an incentive for scum to not nightkill me. And it's kind of confirmable. I guess it wouldn't make much sense to claim as mafia, at least. Probably Town.

Max is correct, I haven't claimed anything yet. I don't think my role is going to give any deep insights into how this setup works, so probably not going to today.

I did get why Hector and FoU might have been naturally talking about mafiakart racing... there was just something weird about the exchange.



Briefly, reads:

Knightwing Town. Jim probably Town due to claim, absence of wolfish behaviour, fabulous entrance. Tric is third party and probably telling the truth.

I'm bad at reading Max. I guess I'll have a look at some of his scum games at some point today.

Can't tell with Toony... I find them quite difficult to read, and they're just very strong.
Max: what do you think of Toony this game - still leaning Town? Also, I remember Web once saying you had a theory about Toony's play - does that have any bearing on this game so far?

Hector has been focused on 3p and defending himself today - despite claim that daygame most important. Vote on me mostly unexplained, seems to be on the basis that I'm signalling mally. Nonetheless, didn't immediately go for killing the possibly town-recruitable third party Tric after the "lie" was exposed. Some gut sense that they actually believe in the reasonableness of their own points. Unsure.

At this stage, prefer FoU over Hector. Partly because, as Hector rightly points out, the weirdness I've seen was mostly on FoU's side, and partly because Hector has made some posts that do inspire confidence. On the other hand:

Dubious signalling theory aside, FoU doesn't look great. Stuff like this - claims we're still in RVS when we're patently not, and pre-emptively threatens/justifies going after players for their votes on FoU. Their next post talks about scumhunting without, again, actually doing any. Bad in itself, also doesn't line up with FoU's townplay from what I remember, though I haven't played with them much.

I wouldn't say they're activelurking, but I would say a lot of their posts do very little to potentially advance the game. Their first five posts this game, say, have a lot of questions and observations but basically nothing interesting.

Yeah, FallacyofUrist seems like a good choice.

I think you’re scum because you’re rolling out this cookie cutter scum hunting nonsense that I was focusing on third parties, despite - and I hate having to repeat myself but it’s relevant to the case - the recruitable third party claim being the first significant thing in the game, the game having a weird context to it in having fewer than 9 players but more than 7, meaning an uncertain number of scum which prompted speculation on the alignment distribution which logically had to involve the claim that Tric made.

Further, I provided major context in my town-meta for my distaste of third parties with the linked post from the MafiaKart game, which parallels this game with the early third-party claim and the attempts by Tric to make it seem as though he’d be a boon for town (WHICH IS EXACTLY HOW FOU FRAMED IT IN THE MAFIAKART GAME HE THREW IN HIS THIRD-PARTY LOT WITH THE MAFIA) but you conveniently ignore that - and I hate saying this too - in bad faith, despite me also saying it’s something that weighs on my mind from time to time. We’re all shaped by our experiences, so why does that very significant mafia experience not count in a game with a weird number of players, an uncertain number of scum, a recruitable third party, and two different claims on how to deal with it in Jim’s befriend and Toony’s psych ability?

This leads me into how the various factions may deal with the third-party. We know Tric was mistaken in his assertion he stays in the game once he achieves his wincon, and we know of two claims on how to deal with him: Jim’s befriend would allow Tric to achieve his wincon or kills him, thus removing him from the game which really only aids scum, and Toony’s psych which would make Tric town. Jim has claimed that in order for Tric to be befriended he would have to target you, which links you and Jim together as a possible scum team, in addition to his also harping on about cookie-cutter scum slips like focusing on third parties.

Another factor in you being scum is in what I see (and have explained in my previous handful of posts) is the weak “10-4” that initially made you interested in Fallacy’s possible scumminess, but not as a member of the scum team proper, but as a mally. You cannot possibly paint FoU as mally and then try to say they’re the main threat to town. If there’s two scum, and a mally, and a third party, town are dead if we miselim today (8 players, 2 scum, 1 scum tp, 1 neutral tp, 4 town) that’s a loss for town, barring any abilities that kept town from losing. Consequently, if we assume a mally, there’s 1 scum, and killing them will win the game for town, assuming no other weirdness, so why are you building a case against FoU, the foundation of which he was signaling as a mally?

Given that you and Max are the only two players who appear to be seriously considering the possibility of a mally, that links you two. Tenuously, sure, but still.

Regardless, the common denominator in these pairings is NJW.

A further issue I have with NJW’s case against FoU is his assertion FoU isn’t scumhunting, which also applies to Jim, it also applies to Knightwing, arguably also to Max, and it probably also applies to me, at least prior to this post. Consequently, the only thing FoU has done differently is the “weirdness”, which is not a scumtell as far as I’m aware.

I also don’t like how he made himself seem like he was the one stopping a possible mally signal the scum team… when he was the one to point out the “signals”.

TL;dr NJW is focusing on someone he thinks is the mally which, if it exists, would likely only have a single member scum team to win with, and his case against FoU is based on “weirdness” which is NAI if the lack of scumhunting is applied between all the other players not scumhunting.

Anyway. FoU needs to get their finger out. While I don’t think you’re scum, I don’t want to have stuck my neck out and you just blend in to the background, even if a significant part of the reason for me thinking you’re not scum is that NJW is.
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FallacyofUrist

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Re: Proc Gen Mafia 4 - Day 1 Begins! - Dwarf Fortress? Elf Fortress more like!
« Reply #122 on: September 06, 2022, 11:51:55 am »

Yes, I do actually need to pursue some cases.

Note that my previous posts were, if I recall correctly, past 1 AM. While I can handle late night activity if I have to, it’s not when I do my best work. So at that time I focused mainly on figuring out what avenues of approach I had, as well as figuring out a suspicion or two (unshared because they’re not fully formed and justified).

I’d do the work of turning my suspicions into cases now, but I’m at work, posting from phone during lunchtime. I do follow the thread occasionally while at work to make sure I don’t get too left behind, but I’m not going to go full terminator mode for a few hours (four, ooo spooky number) yet.

Is there anyone voting me for a reason other than ‘weirdo Fallacy does weird stuff and I don’t like it’? If so I town read them.
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TricMagic

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Re: Proc Gen Mafia 4 - Day 1 Begins! - Dwarf Fortress? Elf Fortress more like!
« Reply #123 on: September 06, 2022, 11:56:26 am »

Lot of text.. I personally think something is up with Toony with that whole random thing, but guess we'll see. Could be Max, could be NJW. I'm less inclined to think it's Fal right now without more proof to back it up though. So NJW until Fal shows up to make a counterargument.

... Well.

I find it hilarious that players are even considering the idea that I'm enough of a planner to pull that absurd signaling strategy off.

In any case, I think my strategy for the time being will be to try and figure out which players were most opportunistic about using my behavior as a reason to vote. The players most eager to either bandwagon and avoid suspicion and/or take the easiest available case, that is to say.
Well they should. How else are people supposed to apply pressure / put their money where their mouth is? Aside from that, it's the RVS. What are you going to do aside from voting randomly?

Shows issues with not wanting to commit. There's another alley I can look into - who has the strongest position on me, while also not voting?

I'm not sure we were ever in RVS this game Fal. The conditions, the reason, you're puffing things up but one could just relegate it to rvs shenanigans. I don't think town has a reason to do so though, so what are the cases you see being made from this?


Nin-3, The fallacy of Fallacy. You can't town-read me, I'm TP.
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NJW2000

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Re: Proc Gen Mafia 4 - Day 1 Begins! - Dwarf Fortress? Elf Fortress more like!
« Reply #124 on: September 06, 2022, 02:13:21 pm »

Oh, I'm not certain about the mally thing, I made that pretty clear. I'm going after FoU because they look like scum.

You're doing some large posts defending yourself and FoU here, especially when all I put was "unsure". If you think I'm scum, put the focus on proving that.

Still need to look into Max's scum game. Been busy today.
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Maximum Spin

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Re: Proc Gen Mafia 4 - Day 1 Begins! - Dwarf Fortress? Elf Fortress more like!
« Reply #125 on: September 06, 2022, 02:23:58 pm »

Still need to look into Max's scum game. Been busy today.
I'm not sure it's ever been the same twice anyway.
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TricMagic

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Re: Proc Gen Mafia 4 - Day 1 Begins! - Dwarf Fortress? Elf Fortress more like!
« Reply #126 on: September 06, 2022, 02:27:25 pm »

Still need to look into Max's scum game. Been busy today.
I'm not sure it's ever been the same twice anyway.
Don't particularly like how lackadaisical NJW sounds about this...
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Maximum Spin

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Re: Proc Gen Mafia 4 - Day 1 Begins! - Dwarf Fortress? Elf Fortress more like!
« Reply #127 on: September 06, 2022, 04:11:06 pm »

All right, just finished a thing for a different thread and caught up in here properly. Little out of it, bear with me.

A further issue I have with NJW’s case against FoU is his assertion FoU isn’t scumhunting, which also applies to Jim, it also applies to Knightwing, arguably also to Max, and it probably also applies to me, at least prior to this post.
Hey, I'm scumhunting, I just keep it close to my vest at this early point. There was more in that long post I felt like responding to, but then I decided I want to keep my opinions to myself for the moment.

Fallacy at L-2. Any other game I'd probably throw one on just to see what happens. Jim's and Toony's gut feelings are aligned with my own. But that's exactly how it happened in Armed Forces. I also think about the last time I was scum, when I had my partner hammer on d1 just for the wifom of "scum surely wouldn't obviously hammer on d1!". But... at the end of the day, my nature is to be bold. Ugggggh, FallacyofUrist. I blame you if we're wrong.
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Jim Groovester

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Re: Proc Gen Mafia 4 - Day 1 Begins! - Dwarf Fortress? Elf Fortress more like!
« Reply #128 on: September 06, 2022, 04:27:47 pm »

hector13's posts are too long but I'm finding at least passionately argued reasoning. I don't think scum sticks out their neck for FoU here. Leaning town.

The parts where he's criticizing other players for cookie cutter cases I'm finding somewhat convincing.

I think this leaves me with NJW2000 and FoU as my choices. I know I said last night I was okay with NJW2000. He gets to live with the consequences of pushing absolute bullshit meritless cases while being scum and now gets to suffer through me wondering whether any weakness in any case he pushes or presents is malicious or not.

Not sure how I feel about the Jim thing... I guess it makes me want to keep him alive, as it's an incentive for scum to not nightkill me. And it's kind of confirmable. I guess it wouldn't make much sense to claim as mafia, at least. Probably Town.

This line kind of bugs me honestly.

Really not seeing what there is to doubt or be unsure about with what I've said.

I'm not sure we were ever in RVS this game Fal. The conditions, the reason, you're puffing things up but one could just relegate it to rvs shenanigans. I don't think town has a reason to do so though, so what are the cases you see being made from this?

Why are you voting for anybody for being scum when you're a claimed third party?

FallacyofUrist
FallacyofUrist
Fal
FallacyofUrist

Well that's L-1 unless I missed a vote somewhere. I suppose I could hammer but I'm not going to.

There is merit in the arguments against him (E.G., FoU has townread maybe two players and hasn't scumread anybody yet) but hector13 planted a seed of doubt in my mind and it's making me doubt that lynching FallacyofUrist catches scum here.

Somebody convince me.
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FallacyofUrist

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Re: Proc Gen Mafia 4 - Day 1 Begins! - Dwarf Fortress? Elf Fortress more like!
« Reply #129 on: September 06, 2022, 04:40:33 pm »

I'm not sure we were ever in RVS this game Fal. The conditions, the reason, you're puffing things up but one could just relegate it to rvs shenanigans. I don't think town has a reason to do so though, so what are the cases you see being made from this?

Why are you voting for anybody for being scum when you're a claimed third party?
Because he's Tric. And because he's used to playing Town / wants to get in our good graces. I don't think that's out of character.



Anyways, I really appreciate the bandwagon that two players joined after I explicitly stated that I was at work and would be able to more seriously pursue cases after that.

All right, just finished a thing for a different thread and caught up in here properly. Little out of it, bear with me.

A further issue I have with NJW’s case against FoU is his assertion FoU isn’t scumhunting, which also applies to Jim, it also applies to Knightwing, arguably also to Max, and it probably also applies to me, at least prior to this post.
Hey, I'm scumhunting, I just keep it close to my vest at this early point. There was more in that long post I felt like responding to, but then I decided I want to keep my opinions to myself for the moment.

Fallacy at L-2. Any other game I'd probably throw one on just to see what happens. Jim's and Toony's gut feelings are aligned with my own. But that's exactly how it happened in Armed Forces. I also think about the last time I was scum, when I had my partner hammer on d1 just for the wifom of "scum surely wouldn't obviously hammer on d1!". But... at the end of the day, my nature is to be bold. Ugggggh, FallacyofUrist. I blame you if we're wrong.

First of all, I don't think Maximum Spin makes this vote as town. 'keep my opinions to myself' and 'my nature is to be bold' seem mutually exclusive, frankly speaking. This just doesn't fit Spin's normal behavior. Spin typically hangs back Day 1 - and here he is making a near lethal play based on gut feeling. That isn't a pressure vote, that's scum saying 'jump this guy already, you know you want to'.

Aside from that point, now that I'm back home, from work as mentioned earlier, I can act on the methodologies I described last night. That is to say, who's voting me for the laziest and least justified reasons.
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Maximum Spin

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Re: Proc Gen Mafia 4 - Day 1 Begins! - Dwarf Fortress? Elf Fortress more like!
« Reply #130 on: September 06, 2022, 04:46:16 pm »

First of all, I don't think Maximum Spin makes this vote as town. 'keep my opinions to myself' and 'my nature is to be bold' seem mutually exclusive, frankly speaking. This just doesn't fit Spin's normal behavior. Spin typically hangs back Day 1 - and here he is making a near lethal play based on gut feeling. That isn't a pressure vote, that's scum saying 'jump this guy already, you know you want to'.
I don't make pressure votes. I think you're misunderstanding my entire playstyle here. I usually make bold votes on d1, I just don't explain them, and I generally wait until people have settled out of random voting, unless I see something I don't like early. I think the chance of hitting scum d1 is usually pretty low, but, for that very reason, I'm also comfortable using my vote tactically. In this case, while I won't be disappointed if you get lynched, seeing what Jim and hector (and to a lesser extent Knightwing, but I'm pretty sure he's town) do and say now that you're at l-1 is the real interesting part.
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NJW2000

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Re: Proc Gen Mafia 4 - Day 1 Begins! - Dwarf Fortress? Elf Fortress more like!
« Reply #131 on: September 06, 2022, 05:05:30 pm »

Jim: regarding your uncertainty over my claim, I just felt like there might be reasons scum would make it that I was missing. Maybe something like the 25% infect thing not actually being 25% at all... but that's most likely to catch Tric, which isn't an amazing result for scum. So not that. It's a pretty weird role to actually play with. Ok, I'll try to convince you.



The case I'm voting FoU on is:

Basically uninteresting first few posts, featuring stuff like a meaningless and abandoned prod at Knightwing, stupid questions, actual nothing, a bunch of mostly uncontested townreads, etc. Nearly activelurking in quite a spicy early D1.

Dubious posts here and here. In these, FoU claims we were in RVS still, threatens to vote players retaliatively for poor justification (cognitive dissonance here?), or for presenting evidence on them without voting (ditto?). It basically looks like attempts to drive off pressure.

The Max vote is... meta-based. Also not based on something I actually think is true of Max, but people's impressions differ, so NAI.

Also for me, a bit of POE, I guess... Mostly sure of Jim and Knightwing, and don't want to elim Hector just yet because some stuff he said has town energy. Possibly Max and Toony are scum wagoning on some weird garden path I've wandered down, but that would probably look as bad for them as for me, if not worse?

And maybe, just maybe, FoU's first post was a bit odd.



Ninja: Fallacy now going to do some scumhunting, apparently. I'm all ears.
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Jim Groovester

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Re: Proc Gen Mafia 4 - Day 1 Begins! - Dwarf Fortress? Elf Fortress more like!
« Reply #132 on: September 06, 2022, 05:12:07 pm »

Remember, friends, never skip working out for more than a month, it sucks when you want to get back into it.

I'm not sure we were ever in RVS this game Fal. The conditions, the reason, you're puffing things up but one could just relegate it to rvs shenanigans. I don't think town has a reason to do so though, so what are the cases you see being made from this?

Why are you voting for anybody for being scum when you're a claimed third party?
Because he's Tric. And because he's used to playing Town / wants to get in our good graces. I don't think that's out of character.

Why did you answer this question I directed to TricMagic? I am much more interested in TricMagic's answer to the question than yours.


I'll poke at the game some more and this as well a little bit later.
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FallacyofUrist

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Re: Proc Gen Mafia 4 - Day 1 Begins! - Dwarf Fortress? Elf Fortress more like!
« Reply #133 on: September 06, 2022, 05:25:59 pm »

In this case, while I won't be disappointed if you get lynched, seeing what Jim and hector (and to a lesser extent Knightwing, but I'm pretty sure he's town) do and say now that you're at l-1 is the real interesting part.
Well, I won't argue with you there. Except for the disappointment part.

Anyways, I have some rereading to do. Shouldn't take too long, it's not like we're over ten pages yet.
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hector13

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Re: Proc Gen Mafia 4 - Day 1 Begins! - Dwarf Fortress? Elf Fortress more like!
« Reply #134 on: September 06, 2022, 05:58:33 pm »

*fannies about with quotes which is not a pleasant experience with a phone*

Dubious posts here and here. [links not present as I had to c+p from the thread] In these, FoU claims we were in RVS still, threatens to vote players retaliatively for poor justification (cognitive dissonance here?), or for presenting evidence on them without voting (ditto?). It basically looks like attempts to drive off pressure.

It’s this kind of thing that makes me think you’re scum. FoU is actually inviting pressure by asking players to vote for him if they have a strong case, otherwise it is hugely suspicious, because building a strong case and only inviting others to take it up is really bad, as is the other side of that coin, voting someone for poor reasoning. Sure, voting people for voting you is no bueno, but examining cases against you for strengths and weaknesses is fine, and half the town is currently on his wagon.

RVS also isn’t an absolute thing; some players can still be in RVS when others are chasing down things they find interesting, and FoU - we at least agree on this - hasn’t done a great deal as yet. That’s about the only good thing I can see from him being at L-1, because he has to actually do something now.
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