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[EuchreJack]

ROLL CALL!

Not everyone survived the night. Your unit is ordered to Rest & Resupply for the next Mission.

The following players are MIA.
Jim Groovester (Town-Grunt)
webadict (Town-Grunt)
Lenglon (Town-Grunt)

Role: Grunt
Alignment: Town
Ability: 1-shot gun - Once during the game, kill one player of your choice during the night phase.
1-shot bulletproof vest (auto-self) - Prevent one kill during the game.
Win-Con: You win if all Mafia are eliminated.

(0) notquitethere:
(0) Maximum Spin:
(0) Lidku:
(0) NJW2000:
(0) ToonyMan:

WARNING! This is LYLO!
Three (3) Votes to Hammer.
End of Day is 2300 Hours EST (11PM EST) August 27th, Approximately 72 Hours from now.

DAY BEGINS NOW!

[Lidku]

The Town is going to have isolate who among the individual three was killed by the Mafia, and who among the Town killed the other individual two based off suspicion.

I'll start:

I was the one that shot Lenglon on N1. I did it out of the thought that she may have been a partner with Maximum Spin. I just got a feeling that Maximum Spin was strangely favoriting them over Knigthwing in his decision on voting. I also shot at them out of the fact that I didn't trust they were NOT going to shoot me, irregardless on whether Knigtwing flipped Town of Mafia.

I also found it suspicious that they refused to not share relevant information she was thinking about on D1:

I am happy about certain things that I'm NOT seeing today, and I'm going to avoid bringing them up specifically to avoid making them happen. If I'm alive tomorrow I might talk about them then. might not even then.

Mind you, they also had some form of thought they were going to die on N1 (which at the time of now, was a correct prediction). If they were so certain that they were likely to die on N1, why withhold on information that could help Town so it wouldn't be lost? And then she later implied that even further along in the game, that she probably wouldn't it for whatever reason. I thought that was really scummy (but turns out my suspicion was wrong).

Though the fact that Lenglon died, means someone else also shot at her, along with me on N1.

[Jim Groovester]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MHr3ag7B410

[Lenglon]

https://youtu.be/f-J0nwZz_fo?t=17

[ToonyMan]

Holy shit it's lylo.

I shot Web last night. I was this close to shooting Max last night instead.

I convinced myself last night that Lidku and Jim were town, and I'm extremely upset about Jim.

I wrote notes but they're on my work laptop and I passed out when I got home let me grab them right now.

[ToonyMan]

Spoiler: N1 notes (click to show/hide)

Jim
NQT
Max
Web
Lidku
NJW
Lenglon

Knightwing - town

Knighwing didn't provide much, but what they did provide were basic reads:

1. Knightwing likes Web and probably likes Lidku
2. Knightwing doesn't like Jim and Max

D1 Vote Count:

Knightwing - Max, Toony, NQT, Jim (Web voted KW second but unvoted later on)
Jim - NJW
Max - Knightwing
Web - Lidku
Not Voting - Lenglon

Lenglon not voting is bad...

I don't want to shoot Jim, I believe in Jim for some reason.

I think there's one mafia inside Max/Web, there's a good chance Lidku is town.

I do not believe mafia!Lidku would hard defend a town!Knightwing here, that's a pro mafia strat I don't sense at all from them.

Not happy with NQT's play today but I still think they're probably town? NQT has meme'd before on D1 as town.

I can't read NJW, but they're usually offbase and mean so probably town. NJW has been attacking Lidku and then Jim today.

Lenglon is buddying me and Web pretty hard while showing hostility to Max and Lidku, unlikely to be partners with them.

Not Shooting:

Lidku - I don't think I shoot here ever, if they're mafia it would be with...Jim? And they would be putting effort to defend Knightwing.
Jim - I think their reads are a little off but so were mine, agrees with me about Max and NJW being suspicious if KW is town.
NJW - I think they're probably town...and wrong about people.

Thinking About Shooting:
NQT - least likely to shoot in this group
Lenglon - I don't really want to shoot them compared to Max/Web
Max - wrong about KW, would he really pull this stunt twice in a row though? we just had a game where mafia!Max lynched town!Knightwing
Web - who doesn't want to shoot this guy on N1?

I believe there's one, and only one, mafia inside Max/Web.

Mafia!Web is most likely with Lenglon, NJW and NQT are possible.
Mafia!Max is most likely with NJW, NQT is possible?

Lenglon and NJW have publically agreed to both shoot Jim. I think this makes it unlikely they're on a team together. I'll be disappointed if Jim dies and flips town tonight.

Max didn't agree to my blood pact about KW, which I'm disappointed about. I don't know if this tells me anything about Max.

Web could easily still be mafia in this game.

After mulling it over, if I shoot someone tonight...it's gonna be Webadict. They have the most likely chance of being mafia I feel, with also the highest amount of possible partners. Another point: Lidku is my highest town read and they were voting Web today.

Though the fact that Lenglon died, means someone else also shot at her, along with me on N1.

Webadict shouldn't have died either with just one shot.

I really think you're town Lidku, and find Max the most likely to be mafia now. I believe if Max is mafia it's with NJW or NQT, although that sounds dumb now since they're the only ones left besides you and me.

I'm sorry about shooting you Web, you're a good player and I couldn't resist.

[ToonyMan]

Lenglon and NJW both agreed to shoot Jim in the thread so that's a good guess why he's dead. That leaves at a minimum two shots unaccounted for beyond shenanigans.

My gut feeling is that it really is just Max/NJW like I said.

@Max:
I need your insight, what are your thoughts on NQT and NJW? Which is scummier if you had to pick?

@NQT:
We need data!! We need graphs!! Go go go!!

@NJW:
Do you still suspect Lidku?

[NJW2000]

Yeah, I shot Jim. I assume Lenglon did too, though it would have been helpful if they made that clear rather than just asking me if I was sure

Evidently, not wanting to get shot is a bit more reasonable than I thought it was. I should not be allowed to kill people D1, it never goes well.

@NJW:
Do you still suspect Lidku?

I was townreading Lidku at the end of yesterday, I think that's pretty clear from my posts. Obviously that's something I'm going to have to look at again, but...

Not a great start, Toony.

The Town is going to have isolate who among the individual three was killed by the Mafia, and who among the Town killed the other individual two based off suspicion.

I'll start:

I was the one that shot Lenglon on N1.

Hold on, you shot Lenglon?

Because she... was a plausible partner for Max? And because she said she was withholding information?

There are thousands of reasons to withhold information as town - EuchreJack literally told us the game had specialised power roles, and Knightwing's flip confirmed it. And if you think Max is likely scum... shoot Max. Looking over your posting history, this doesn't really make any sense. Can you tell me roughly when you decided Lenglon was scummier than Web?

Also, did you think someone else was going to shoot her with you?

[Maximum Spin]

I shot Lenglon. No apologies.

I thought this yesterday but allowed myself to discard the thought: Verily it is written, if webadict and ToonyMan aren't fighting, at least one of them is scum. I also can't quite believe that everyone who voted Knightwing would be town when web and I both screwing up like that fell into the mafia's laps.

(I still maintain that he acted like scum Knightwing to the end, which has me deeply concerned. You better believe you got what you wanted in that people aren't going to vote you out so easily next time, but like I said back when I had a lapse of faith in Demon Mafia, you're supposed to achieve that by getting better, not worse!)

I assume I'm probably going to get lynched today unless the team is exactly ToonyMan/Lidku, so congratulations to the mafia.

I need your insight, what are your thoughts on NQT and NJW? Which is scummier if you had to pick?

NJW scores one point higher in Scrabble, so that makes him one point scummier, unless NQT is on a special multiplier spot.

[notquitethere]

I tried to work out who was most likely to shoot whom based on what they had said. I expected to be wrong about some of them but here's the list I made:

notquitethere - no one N1
Jim Groovester - Probably Lidku
Maximum Spin - Not Toony.
webadict - Not Lidku. Possibly Max.
Lidku - Max or Web
NJW2000 - Jim
ToonyMan - "Will shoot Max is KW is town"
Lenglon - "My current target is likely to be Lidku regardless of Knightwing's flip"

If everyone acted to type, Lidku should have been shot at least once by one of the dead players. I'm honestly surprised he's alive. How many times did you get shot Lidku?

Similarly, Max was a top target on D1, so I'm surprised to see him walking around today as well. Did you get shot at all, Max?

We know that there were at least six shots taken OR mafia can bypass shields and there were at least 5 shots (one mafiakill, four other shots).

We have the following claimed kills:

Lidku - Lenglon
NJW2000 - Jim
ToonyMan - Web

Which means that the existing kills could be accounted for if all the dead players played ball. Something like:

Lenglon - Jim
Jim Groovester - Web
webadict - Lenglon

But I don't think that's likely at all when 2/3 dead players said they'd target Lidku. What's more likely is something like:

Lidku - mafiakill Lenglon
NJW2000 - Jim
ToonyMan - Web
Max - Medic Lidku
Lenglon - Lidku
Jim Groovester - Web
webadict - Jim

-

I'm going to wait on Max, but right now, I'm thinking:

Toony - Town
NJW - Probably town
Max - Probably scum
Lidku - Scum

- PPE Max ninja. This changes things, will make a second post before I get ninja'd again

[notquitethere]

Quick aside before I address Max's post. In case anyone is wondering why I saved my shot, I laid out my reasoning in my first post of the game:

Spoiler: Some Theorising (click to show/hide)

This is probably a bit too early and maybe not well considered enough but... my gut is that the huge number of kills is roughly pro-town. We'll definitely get false positives (every game I've run with vigs, I think the vigs killed more town than scum), but the shield mechanic means it'll take more than one person's read to flip someone, which I feel is a big advantage. Like, it won't just be one player's hyper-tunnel going wrong or right, it'll take aggregate suspicion to flip at night, almost like a mini-vote with a hammer of two.

I figured that I was neither hated enough by other town players nor would I be considered the most active poster likely to be nightkilled by the mafia, so given I was likely to survive until D2, waiting until the pool was smaller and there was more info before shooting the shot made a lot of sense to me. I think we can all see the effect of shooting blindly.

[Maximum Spin]

Similarly, Max was a top target on D1, so I'm surprised to see him walking around today as well. Did you get shot at all, Max?

Not at all, apparently. This isn't surprising. Mafia would want me to take the fall for misreading Knightwing.

[NJW2000]

Uh... So I guess the vote is giving us some clears. Or scum just can't be arsed to hammer, but yeah.

We're at MYLO. Careful with votes. Especially if you've proven yourself unable to read the damn thread.

With someone else, I'd yell at them. But Max is generally pretty sure of themselves, and can't be bullied into changing their mind... whatever their alignment, I think we can conclude they're 100% ok with a Toony elimination today.

NQT: Lenglon had a bargain with me to shoot Jim. Reread the thread.

Ok, I think I know who scum is.



Toonyman

[notquitethere]

Spoiler: Guff (click to show/hide)

Similarly, Max was a top target on D1, so I'm surprised to see him walking around today as well. Did you get shot at all, Max?

Not at all, apparently. This isn't surprising. Mafia would want me to take the fall for misreading Knightwing.

But town have more shots that mafia and you were basically the #2 suspect on D1!


OK, updated this if we take Max's claim at face value. This is a closed setting, there could be watchers and trackers, so people are likely to be truthful about who they claim to have shot but obviously not guaranteed.

If mafia don't have a mafiakill and they have to chip away at shields like everyone else (entirely possible given that there was a town medic role), they would have had to co-ordinate their kills:

Lidku - Shoot Lenglon
NJW2000 - Shoot Jim
ToonyMan - Shoot Web
Max - Shoot Lenglon
Lenglon - Shoot Lidku?
Jim Groovester - Shoot Web?
webadict - Shoot Jim?


This would explain the two extraneous kills, leaving Lenglon as the mafia's intended target (makes sense, as the most active town player on D1), and mean the team is exactly Max/Lidku. I want to vote Lidku, but as it's LYLO I'm going to wait and see what's going on.

Toonyman

[ToonyMan]

Unvote me right now